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      "author": "steemitboard",
      "body": "Congratulations @steemmcqueen! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@steemmcqueen/birthday3.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 3 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@steemmcqueen) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=steemmcqueen)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "body": "This is the kind of crypto-currency articles I want to read! Not those \"bitcoin solves everything\" hype without supporting arguments with any utilities. I just followed you, I'm interested in your next posts. Keep these articles coming!",
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      "body": "Where should the value in the Ethereum ecosystem lie? In other words, what should be greater? The aggregate market cap of utility tokens built on the Ethereum network or the market cap of Ether?\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmcCs158FbSc49tbSaTcAXXovoU8LoNKKddEhoVJdc4fd3/image.png)\n\nWhere should the value of the Ethereum Ecosystem Lie?\n\nThis is the question I have been pondering for while now and in this article I will discuss my thoughts. This is just my take on a rarely discussed topic and I welcome any and all ideas you might have to further this discussion. The answer to this question will determine whether we, as investors, should be holding more of our portfolio of ERC20 tokens relative to ETH.\n\nThe EVM\n\nThe Ethereum virtual machine(EVM) acts as the the underlying computational engine for smart contracts to be executed on. One of the main arguments for the tremendous potential of ETH as an investment is that there will be a huge ecosystem of useful projects built to utilise the EVM. Every time a smart contract executes, a small amount of ETH will be needed to “pay” for its execution. As more people use these decentralised apps, the more demand there will be for ETH to execute these smart contracts and therefore increase the value of ETH will increase. Similarly as more people use these Dapps, the more value their utility tokens should hold.\n\nThis seems to be a completely reasonable argument. As the utility in the ecosystem increases, so should the value of ETH and the utility token providing the customer with the useful service. But how will this extra value be distributed? Should more of it go to the collective owners of the utility token or to the underlying Ethereum network?\n\nCould we compare it to AWS?\n\nMy approach to tackling this problem is to think of the EVM as a utility, like Amazon Web Services, and the utility tokens as representing the companies that are built on top of this service. Anyone with a good Dapp idea can code up a set of economic rules and run their smart contract on the EVM. Just like anyone with a traditional tech idea can code up an application and pay AWS to host and run their application.\n\nI know this is not a perfect comparison but for the purposes of demonstrating the possible economic forces at play here, I think this is an interesting starting point.\n\nAmazon, at the time of writing, has a market cap of just over $450bn, and a SIC Investment Research report in May this year estimates that the AWS component is worth $190bn. Using this estimate, we can put a market cap of Amazon ex AWS at roughly $260bn. We can think of AWS as a utility that business use to build their added value on top of. Even just looking at Amazon’s own use of AWS, the AWS utility is able to support a $260bn business. Then, add on all the other thousands of businesses that use AWS we can quickly see that the AWS utility, valued at $190bn, is able to support trillions of USD in business value.\n\nIf we now draw a parallel with the Ethereum network we can start making some interesting arguements. The underlying EVM offers a lot less in terms of functionality that the AWS ecosystem. Storage will require use of SiaCoin or Filecoin. Computationally intensive tasks will require the use of the Golem token. And as the other utility projects release production ready components, the Ethereum ecosystem will begin to resemble a decentralised AWS that provides the full Web 3.0 tech stack that will drive the decentralised revolution forward. But should the value of that ecosystem really end up mostly in ETH?\n\nWhat all this means?\n\nETH is the connective tissue in the ecosystem but to store TBs of data or perform intense computational tasks, this utility value should be held by utility tokens. And once the Web 3.0 tech stack is built, the network of Dapps that people will use should also hold most of the extra utility value that they create.\n\nAs of right now ETH has a market cap of around $27bn but the cumulative market cap of the top 82 ETH tokens is only $6.4bn. One could argue that the large market cap of ETH is a premium that reflects the huge future potential of the utility tokens that can be built on this network. But isn’t that an argument to have a much greater % of our crypto portfolio in tokens rather than ETH itself?\n\nFurthermore, looking at AWS’s relationship with the businesses it supports, AWS relies on a huge customer base, representing trillions of USD in value, to support its $190bn valuation. It seems logical that the aggregate value of the utility tokens in the Ethereum ecosystem will also need to be many multiples of the market cap of ETH in order to support the ETH market cap. If we make a rather speculative(but I think conservative) assumption that the utility token ecosystem needs to be 10X the market cap of ETH to support any particular ETH market cap, a current valuation of $27bn in ETH predicts that the aggregate value of utility tokens should be around $270bn.\n\nNow this is my high level analysis of the situation and I am extremely interested in hearing your thoughts. For those that believe in the future of the Ethereum network and who have a large portion of your investments in ETH, I hope this piece has made you think about your asset allocation between ETH and ERC20 tokens. For those that are bearish this space, this may be a justification for ETH being overvalued.\n\nIn conclusion:\n\n1. I believe that within the Ethereum eco system the value will lie with the utility tokens rather than the underlying ETH token\n\n2. I have liken this to how AWS, a $190bn portion of the Amazon company, supports thousands of businesses that operate on top of its infrastructure and represent trillions of dollars of value\n\n3. ETH is currently valued at $27bn whereas the top 82 tokens have a combined market cap of only $6.4bn (at time of writing)\n\n4. If my hypothesis plays out, the combined market cap of utility tokens will grow to be multiples of the market cap of ETH in the future\n\n5. Therefore there should be much greater upside in utility tokens relative to ETH\n\nNB: I realise that this is a very brief discussion of a multifaceted but very interesting topic. There are clearly many more forces at work here and I hope that this piece can stimulate more ideas on how we can analyse the economic landscape of the Ethereum ecosystem.\n\nDisclaimer: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please seek professional advice for your personal investments.",
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      "body": "@@ -253,16 +253,169 @@\n veaway/%0A\n+%0ACurrently each Bitcoin you hold is worth about $18 at the time of writing. But be quick. This giveaway ends on the 27th of August so don't mess about!%0A%0A\n https://\n",
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      "author": "steemmcqueen",
      "body": "As part of Stellar's marketing strategy they are giving Lumens to anyone that owned bitcoins prior to the 26th of June 2017. I've just claimed mine. Here's a link to the Stellar blog post explaining how to do it: https://www.stellar.org/blog/why-btc-giveaway/\nhttps://steemitimages.com/DQmX5o1ubhes5NYg4dJeU3GsiBcWpzYioL55BEWAVQjXsrs/image.png\nWhy wouldn't you claim it?! And once you've claimed it you can transfer them into your own wallet or onto an exchange like and do whatever you want with them.  If you have any questions or issues with the claim process, leave a comment and I'll try and answer it.",
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      "body": "<p><img src=\"https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8607/28747290346_ffbc64b407_b.jpg\" /></p>\n<p>For most people, rock paper scissors (RPS) is a game of pure luck. A fair way to choose who pays for a round or gets to ride shotgun. But after reading this you should be able to tip the odds in your favour. There are even big RPS competitions with some lots of money on the line!</p>\n<h2><strong>The Game</strong></h2>\n<p>For those of you who don’t know the rules here is a quick overview. There are 2 players who will simultaneously throw one of 3 shapes with their hand (shown below). Rock beats scissors, scissors beats paper and paper beats rock. If both players throw the same, it is a draw. Simples.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8635/28494563530_17d4cea91a_b.jpg\" /></p>\n<p>If one person was to throw their hands completely randomly then the optimal strategy of the other person is to also play completely randomly. Fortunately for us <strong>HUMANS ARE TERRIBLE AT BEING RANDOM</strong>. For example many of you know that if you ask someone to pick a random number between 1 and 10, that 7 is picked roughly 25% of the time (depending on what study you look at). Or if I show you a group of large random numbers and show another person a group of small random numbers, when asked immediately after to pick any random number, you are more likely to pick a higher number than the person shown smaller numbers before.</p>\n<p>The fact is we find it very hard to replicate randomness, and therefore there is a better strategy than random in RPG. Firstly let’s look at the stats.</p><h2><strong>The opening</strong></h2>\n<p>In a report from the World RPS Society (yes that is real!) tournament players statistically throw the following proportions of hands:</p>\n<p>Rock: 35.4%</p>\n<p>Paper: 35%</p>\n<p>Scissors: 29.6%</p>\n<p>This may not be surprising if you think about historically how you have played the game. It may be that you start with a fist when you do the count down and people may be too lazy to change. Or some people believe that rock is seem a more the manly choice for some strange reason, and given that most people that play RPS are male, it leads to a higher proportion of rocks being thrown. Strangely it is also said that women tend to play scissors more often. Given that this is the case, we come to our first rule.</p>\n<h3><strong>Rule 1: </strong></h3>\n<p><strong>Against a man play Paper first: you should only lose to a Scissors less than 30% of the time. Against a woman? Well no hard studies have been done on that yet so there’s another mystery about women for men ponder!</strong></p>\n<h2>What studies have shown – the second throw</h2>\n<p>It is only after the first hand is thrown that the psychological battle really begins. There are a number of patterns that have been recognised that can help you win the long game. A study done by <a href=\"http://arxiv.org/pdf/1301.3238.pdf\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Zhijian Wang of Zhejiang University in China</strong></a>, showed that winners of the first round tend to stick to that shape whereas losers tend to switch. What was interesting was that they tend to switch around the persistent cycle of rock-paper-scissors.  I.e. if they throw paper and lose to your scissors, your best guess is that they will chose scissors next as it is next in the sequence R-P-S. </p>\n<h3><strong>Rule 2: </strong></h3>\n<p><strong>Depending on whether your opponent wins the first round adjust your strategy as follows: If just won, assume they will throw the same shape again and act accordingly. If they lost, assume they will switch to the next shape in the sequence rock-paper-scissors and act accordingly.</strong></p>\n<h2>The real mind games begin!</h2>\n<p>The strategy above describes what to do against someone that hasn’t really ever thought deeply about the game and are going of their instincts. The rules won’t mean that you win every time, but they will certainly tip the odds in your favour over the long run. But what if you are playing against an opponent who also knows the strategy above?</p>\n<p>Now it gets interesting! If you know that they know, then your optimal strategy becomes dependent not only on what strategy you think they know, but also whether you think they know that you know that they know!!!! And you can even go further up in levels until your head is spinning and you need to lie down. </p>\n<p><img src=\"https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8800/28161452264_ebeb6c046a_m.jpg\" /></p>\n<p>In that situation, unless you can see into your opponent soul, you want to aim to revert to a strategy as close to random as possible. But humans are terrible at being random right? Then we need to find something in out surroundings that can seed randomness. Like a clock with a second hand hanging on the wall. Split the clock into 5 second chunks, cycling through R-P-S every 15 second quadrant, and depending where the second hand is when you start the count down, throw that shape irrespective of what you think your opponent might do. Then let your opponent hopefully defeat him/herself as they try to discover a pattern in your play!</p>\n<h3>Rule 3: </h3>\n<p><strong>If you are playing a tough opponent, randomise your play.</strong></p>\n<h2>Other strategies to mix up your play against weak opponents</h2>\n<ul>\n  <li>Say what you’re going throw and actually throw it! Most people will think you’re lying and you will win.</li>\n  <li>Most people find it hard to throw the same shape 3 times, so if they have thrown scissors twice, expect them to change to rock on the next throw following the R-P-S cycle in rule 2.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><br /></p>\n<p>Now you can enjoy all the free drinks and shotgun rides you are going to win from here on. And if you think you’ve got what it takes to play against the best, I’ll leave you with some inspiration and a link to the<strong> </strong><a href=\"http://worldrps.com/advanced-rps/\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>World RPS Society</strong></a>. Enjoy!</p>\n<iframe src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/6yrdT5y12kA\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" allowFullScreen=\"on\" frameBorder=\"0\"></iframe><p><br /></p>\n<p>*Thank you to <a href=\"https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1780747209/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1634&amp;creative=6738&amp;creativeASIN=1780747209&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=edgeh-21\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>William Poundstone’s</strong></a> fantastic book <a href=\"https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1780747209/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1634&amp;creative=6738&amp;creativeASIN=1780747209&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=edgeh-21\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>“How to Predict the Unpredictable: The Art of Outsmarting Almost everyone”</strong></a> for introducing me to this topic. It is an extremely interesting read, covering a wide range of areas and I can highly recommend it if you have any interest in human psychology and behavioural economics.</p>\n<p><br /></p>",
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