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      "author": "bad-puppet",
      "body": "#\n> 为什么很多浅显的“原则”，人们总是忽略，而被那些“次要”的因素所干扰？\n\n## 线性思维是一把双刃剑\n#\n\n有明确因果关系的问题就是简单问题，可以用线性思维解决。\n- 比如说一个人行窃，那么只要把他抓起来就可以了；\n- 比如说手机坏了，那就换一个新的；\n他们有个共同点是其中有个“坏人”，消灭坏人，问题就解决了。\n\n#\n\n但投资区块链里的坏人是谁呢？\n\n* 是那些庄家吗？一个流通量如此巨大的市场，个体的庄家真的存在吗？于其说是庄，不如说是投资者组成的社群？消灭自己吗？\n* 是那些诈骗团伙吗？但很多人很聪明一直没有被骗过，投资非常谨慎，结果是一定赚钱吗？\n* 是那些强货币主权国家吗？是国家政策吗？对于大多数人来说，如果没有政策的保护，是更容易被诈骗还是更容易赚到钱？\n\n\n## 区块链投资 这是一个系统问题\n#\n\n很多人是无法接受世界的“复杂性”，典型的就是亏钱了就去骂“李笑来”。\n\n就像有人看了几篇XD的文章就仿佛自己找到了一个“发泄口”，写了一篇叫《从今天起，我就不再是李笑来的脑残粉了》，很多人可能不知道，作者在写文章之前没多久，刚刚被几个群的人“批斗”过，最后自己退群了。\n\n像李笑来与XD的事情，就是一个系统问题，并不是一个简简单单的“谁对谁错”问题。\n\n关于这个事情我可以写一篇长文，但我一直不愿意写，因为对我来说，xd在行为逻辑上就违背了我的原则，在我的投资决策里是直接否决了，那么我更重要的是思考其他事情。\n\n而能够做到如此，就恰恰是因为我没有被XD“利益绑架”，简单来说还是因为我没有那么多币需要“变现”。\n\n为什么很多人支持xd，很简单，因为这个入口不能倒，市场有强烈需求。为什么李笑来会说，你们居然还敢把币放在这个人的交易所里？因为李笑来是以系统思维思考的，从概率来说这个交易所风险已经超过他的原则，更重要的是他也不需要变现。\n\n\n#### 那么什么是系统？\n#\n> 所谓系统，就是一个由很多部分组成的整体，各个部分互相之间有联系，作为整体又有一个共同的目的。人的身体、学校、公司、国家，都是系统。\n\n> - 第一，系统里有各种元素，也就是各个部分。比如学校系统，其中有老师、有学生，有教室、有操场，这些元素是系统的组成部分。组成元素是一个系统最明显的东西，而也可能是最不重要的东西，因为它们常常是可替换的。正所谓铁打的营盘流水的兵，学生来了又走，老师、校长都可以换，而学校还是这个学校，系统还是这个系统。\n> - 第二，系统中各个元素之间，有各种关系。这些关系可以是上下级的命令、谁和谁合作、谁向谁汇报，也可以是规则、物理定律。元素可以随时调换，但关系通常是不变的。所以真正要理解一个系统的运行机制，你就要了解它的关系结构。\n > - 第三，系统还有一个功能，或者说是一个目的。比如学校的功能就是教育学生。系统的功能往往是不明显的，有时候表面上有个功能，实际上还有个功能。比如学校系统，表面上看，它的目的应该是教育学生；但实际上，它的目的也许是考试能力训练，或者纯粹是为了赚钱。\n\n\n那么区块链系统的目的又是什么？只有清楚这一点，我们才能知道我们到底投资的未来，是什么？\n\n#### 提高人与人之间的协同效率，减少沟通成本\n\n#\n是不是有一种，早就知道了的感觉。\n\n是啊，大多数人都是知道的，但是在投资区块链的时候，想的却是：\n\n- 再不买就没机会了！\n- 又要涨了！买买买！\n- 这个项目有大佬站台！\n- 大家都说好！一定靠谱！\n\n\n但是仅仅是知道如何判断当下，也许还不够。\n\n因为世界变化太快了，这时候又需要使用一个杀手锏，那是一种理解历史的方法。\n\n\n### 看“区块链”这些年在与谁对话，未来又可能如何发展？\n#\n\n区块链技术最早是诞生于“比特币”身上，那时候区块链是在与不受信任的“现代金融体系”对话，强调信用。\n\n后来以太坊的出现，让区块链进入2.0时代，那是在与低效繁琐的“中心化裁判”对话，强调合作共识（智能合约）。\n\n那么未来是什么？\n\n如果说EOS是区块链3.0，那么区块链3.0在与谁对话？\n\n如果我没有猜错的话，可能是——与复杂繁琐的“区块链技术应用”对话，强调“简单”。",
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      "author": "bad-puppet",
      "body": "如果pressone最终是一个合约，那么也将成为李笑来“集团项目”中的一个底层合约，现在也不知道最终会变成什么样子，也许还会再次迭代也说不定。",
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      "body": "![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPwxtC13mjhfnmDnWhjCmLAn4wpV2ojei8aUNxPPq6u7Q/image.png)\n\n> *  所以新事物出来都有一个过程，一开始的时候，最开始的心态叫 FOMO，总怕被错过，于是怎么办呢?就拼命地需买，我不管对不对，先买了再说。\n>*   总怕被错过的心态就导致它的价格会远远超过真实价值，这就是泡沫。泡沫最终会破灭，一旦破灭它会跌到低谷，然后重新慢慢涨回价值。\n>*   所以今天的区块链也是一样的，我们不知道区块链的“2000年”会在什么时候到来，区块链的这一拨大的热潮会在什么时候遇到当时的互联网泡沫破灭一样的热潮，但是我希望这一天早点到来。\n>*   那一天一旦到来之后，真正好的项目会慢慢浮现出来，会健康成长，会真正改变这个世界，提高世界运行的效率。\n\n* * *\n\n上面这一段是刘润老师在18年1月18号直播的结语，今天又翻出来看了一遍，有些东西在第一次听的时候感触是不够深的，当人们沉浸在轻易获得的财富梦当中的时候，几乎没有人认为自己会是最后的一棒。\n\n\n几乎没有人认为自己会是最后的一棒，这句话请重复再看一遍，你自己是否也是如此想的？如果是，那么你的内心深处或者根本就是摆明了只是想捞一笔钱就跑的短期投机者罢了，如果并不是，那么下面的内容也许对你有帮助。\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n\n##  价值投资，到底如何寻找到真正的价值？ ##\n#\n\n\n搞不好，99.9%的项目都可能最终没能成功，但这里隐藏了一个陷阱，99.9%的项目会失败，那么是不是意味着就应该完全等待市场彻底进入低谷，重新慢慢涨回价值再关注区块链呢？\n\n\n\n每一次技术革命，每一次新的商业模式出现，最先吃螃蟹的并且可以持续的人，往往都是已经在这个相关领域做了很多功课的人，就像淘宝刚刚兴起的时候似乎任何人都可以开一家店赚钱，但是真正最终霸占淘宝内的主要交易量的那些店，背后都有着传统零售行业的影子，或者是有过销售经验的团队，或者就是厂家进行直销。\n\n\n\n微信公众号也是如此，当第一批内容大号出现的时候，这些人早已不是刚刚开始学习写文章的新手了，每一次科技革命，摧毁的并不是传统，摧毁的是没有成长没有进步的传统思维。\n\n\n\n于是乎，回到区块链的问题上来，请问你投了多少个项目？又看了几个项目的白皮书？是否经常思考区块链的未来？是否经常进行头脑风暴？是否经常反思升级？如果没有这些努力与时间花在这上面，又如何笃定未来自己站在比更多人更前沿的地方，看到更多美好的风景，更多真正有价值的项目？\n\n\n\n“99.9%的项目都可能最终没能成功”在我这里，最终变成了这样一句话——不断的通过学习，寻找到那真正的0.1%的项目！这就是我的投资理念，那些“空气币”、“垃圾币”能不碰就千万不要碰，因为最终你明明知道，这些都是大概率归零的项目。\n\n\n\n随着不断的提高自己对区块链的理解，随着一个个新的信息出现，逐渐的很多信息开始串联起来，你会发现很多人都有“主链币”的概念。我之前写了一篇文章就提到过主链币：币种千千万万，如何看？——区块链资产分类与特点\n\n\n\n主链币，有一些明晃晃的事情，似乎再一次被很多人遗忘，如果有什么项目有可能最终走到未来，那么大概率是在主链币当中产生。\n\n\n\n\n---------------\n## Press.one 下沉一级？\n#\n#\n\n作为国内的一个超级明星项目，Pressone在去年9月被郭嘉政策当头一棒后，消失了很久，但很多人都在等待她的消息。甚至很多人对这个项目产生了感情，但奇妙的却是产生感情的原因是因为李笑来，而李笑来却在教他们如何进行“批判性思维”，这是一种道不清说不明的感受。\n\n\n\n原来的Pressone 其实也是以主链的方向试图开拓一个“内容版权时代”，那时候已经觉得是非常厉害的产品，但经过一次浴火重生，李笑来居然把Pressone在如此短的时间内又一次进化了，这种变化对Pressone来说也许成功率会再一次增加20%！\n\n\n\n20%只是我的不负责任预测而已，因为现在Pressone更详细的内容并没有披露，但框架却已经可以迷迷糊糊看到，Pressone从原来的与ETH一样的思路搭建主链的思考方向，变成了如今的核心在于，如何让世界更好的链接所有人。\n\n\n-------------\n\n## 将来Press.one真正要做的是\n#\n#\n基于区块链的内容分发网络\n\n一个去中心化的开放协议，允许任何人基于我们的数据和基础架构来创建应用及内容。透明，高效，平等。\n\n\n\n上面是官网给出的 极简说明。。。\n\n\n\n今天有人说非常激动的登陆了Pressone网站注册，结果只有这一点东西。的确内容少的可怜，新版本的Pressone说明只有那么寥寥无几的几个字。\n\n\n\n现在的Pressone可以做什么呢？（网站：https://press.one/）\n\n\n\n现在仅仅只是建立你的一个“身份证”而已，证明“你”是“你”的东西。有一则漫画来解释：你该如何证明你是你?\n\n\n\n这些都不重要，重要的是有另一些项目的产品逻辑结合李笑来的风格，给了我一些启发——既然现在技术仍然有很大发展空间，既然市场与政策如此波澜，既然区块链发展还只是早期，既然笃定了区块链技术是未来，那么对区块链世界发展现在最重要的是什么？\n\n\n\n也许最重要是——打通底层技术难题（建立底层构建），孵化并链接更多的应用项目，高速迭代，让区块链世界尽快度过那漫长的“准备动作”。\n\n\n\n这个过程会有很多项目被淘汰出局，那么什么样的项目才更大可能性突围而出呢？那就是那些位于底层的，提供其他项目“高速繁殖迭代”的基础资源的项目。\n\n\n\n也就是说，主动下沉一级就是在避开高风险区域。\n\n\n\n这种模式其实和EOS有点像，和Mixin非常像，这种互相学习借鉴并且迭代的效益在区块链世界里面非常普遍，以至于区块链技术的发展快的就像区块链投资市场一样，也许在我们不知道的情况下，全世界最聪明的那些人也在不断的涌入这个世界，因为这里有更大的舞台与施展空间。\n\n\n\n很多人说2018是区块链应用的爆发期，从现在看来，也许仍然有待观察，因为底层的那些项目也才陆陆续续在2018年上线，而这些基础设施都还没有建立起来之前，一大堆应用项目的市值就已经被炒的那么高了，泡沫能不重吗？\n\n\n\n但也许很多人没有发现，目前的区块链项目泡沫破碎到价值回归这个区间，已经越来越小了。但仍然不要忘记那句话：\n\n\n\n>所以新事物出来都有一个过程，一开始的时候，最开始的心态叫 FOMO，总怕被错过，于是怎么办呢?就拼命地需买，我不管对不对，先买了再说。总怕被错过的心态就导致它的价格会远远超过真实价值，这就是泡沫。\n\n\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmaVN6WPSNn6QJ2wg7S8kvtG4AgdDF3JBsx5D9yRx6EPXv/image.png)\n\n\n------\n本文首发于微信公共帐号：\n\n不良的木偶（HJ_MOR）\n\n请注意：\n\n无需授权即可转载；\n\n甚至无需保留以上版权声明……\n\n-----",
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