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      "body": "去年是全球货币超发规模最大的一年，巨量货币流入市场，使得投资者普遍对通胀担忧，对“硬通货”的信任度下降。但去年以来，比特币涨幅领跑各类资产，其价格屡创新高。不过，比特币的波动性也极大，4月18日最大跌幅超过15%，故它更像成长型资产而非货币。从中长期视角来看，比特币价格趋势的形成有着宏观环境变化的影子。\n\n![1618890566706832.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZDEGPDpBwZ6vmEbwoAtAsnywkMzLGpS1ibZyd4vaq9eg/1618890566706832.png)\n\n 比特币“一骑绝尘”\n\n自2020年以来，比特币价格涨幅领跑各类资产。截至2021年4月16日，以美元计的比特币价格较2019年底上涨超过780%，较2020年底涨幅也超过了100%。即便在疫情暴发以来涨幅同样可观的美股，如纳斯达克当前相较2019年底的涨幅也“仅有”57%，较2020年底的涨幅尚未超过10%，远远赶不上比特币的价格上涨幅度。\n\n传统资产“安全感”缺乏 把比特币作为可配置资产安全吗\n\n近期比特币价格更是屡创新高，以Bitstamp的比特币收盘价格来看，2020年12月平均收盘价突破2万美元/个，其后在2021年1月~3月接连突破3万、4万和5万美元/个，4月中旬比特币收盘价更是突破6万美元/个，虽然短期价格有所调整，但目前仍超过5万美元/个。\n\n诚然，比特币价格短期大幅上涨和交易情绪不无关系，但从中长期视角来看，比特币价格趋势的形成有着宏观环境变化的影子。\n\n传统资产“安全感”缺乏 把比特币作为可配置资产安全吗\n\n安全资产需求上升\n\n疫情对全球经济造成了冲击，也使得人们对于安全资产的需求有所上升。\n\n从美国的情况来看，疫情使得人们更多地把钱储蓄起来，而并不是去消费，季调后的个人储蓄占可支配收入比重曾超过30%，今年2月这一比值仍高达13.6%，除去疫情期间，这也创下了1976年以来的新高。\n\n传统资产“安全感”缺乏 把比特币作为可配置资产安全吗\n\n中国的情况也同美国类似，2020年底中国居民人均消费支出与可支配收入之比由2019年底的70.2%大幅回落至65.9%，今年第一季度这一比值继续降至61.4%，居民预防性储蓄需求显著上升。\n\n![1618890588492092.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNrBbUyZED6R6oXPeYPP5FBQAede4EMHGdW4FTwf7gBjq/1618890588492092.png)\n\n\n传统资产“安全感”缺乏 把比特币作为可配置资产安全吗\n\n从收入结构看，疫情后经济的K形复苏意味着高收入群体财富占比继续提升，以美国为例，2020年10月美国前1%的家庭财富占比突破28%，再度创下该数据统计以来的新高，中国也有相似的情况，居民人均可支配收入中位数增速赶不上整体增速。而在安全需求上升的背景下，高收入群体财富的扩张也势必带来对于安全资产的配置增加。\n\n传统资产“安全感”缺乏\n\n那么，哪些资产能够给人们提供“安全感”呢？\n\n过去很长一段时期以来，住房被视为我国最能够带来“安全感”的资产，房地产也成为了居民财富的载体。根据我们的估计，在2019年居民资产配置中，房地产占比超过70%，约是居民金融资产规模的2.4倍。\n\n传统资产“安全感”缺乏 把比特币作为可配置资产安全吗\n\n但在当前“房住不炒”的政策背景下，一方面，央行对于商业银行发放的房地产贷款进行集中度管理，从融资端对地产行业加以约束，规定银行个人住房贷款余额的比例上限，进而限制了居民加杠杆购房的行为。\n\n另一方面，“稳房价”的要求也使得近来房价涨幅远赶不上前几年的水平。从百城住宅样本均价来看，2013年和2016年其同比增速曾高达两位数，2019年以来这一增速已降至5%以下。房价增速的回落使得住房作为资产所带来的“安全感”下降，逐渐回归到其本来的居住属性。\n\n在经济增长回落、权益市场大幅调整的时期，国债也常是资产配置中“安全感”的来源之一，过去债券市场的几轮牛市与此不无关系。而当前我国十年期国债收益率虽较货币最为宽松阶段已有显著上行，但仍处于后30%的分位数水平，即便存在价格上涨的空间，幅度或也相对有限，提供的安全边际略显不足。\n\n传统资产“安全感”缺乏 把比特币作为可配置资产安全吗\n\n不仅我国传统资产带来的“安全感”减弱，其实海外也不例外。\n\n发达国家货币向来被视为海外安全资产的重要标的，比如美元和日元在投资者中一直具备着这样的地位。但这次为了应对疫情，各国央行纷纷“开闸放水”，货币超发程度显著加剧，2月美国M2同比增速超过27%，而2020年同期只有不到10%；日本M2增速今年2月也达到9.6%，2020年同期只有3%，这在很大程度上削弱了货币的购买力。\n\n比特币的优势在哪里\n\n放眼当下，可能只有黄金和比特币能够对冲经济冲击和货币贬值的压力，满足人们对于资产配置“安全感”的需求，而在这一方面，比特币比黄金或许更具优势。\n\n需要说明的是，虽然顶着“数字货币”的旗号，但我们认为，比特币并非完全意义上的货币，但的确是投资的选项。而且比特币作为另类投资的资产，目前市值在数字货币资产中稳居榜首。以当前市值来看，比特币占据数字货币市值比重超过一半，以太币位居第二，占比也超过10%，其他货币市值占比均未超过5%。\n\n传统资产“安全感”缺乏 把比特币作为可配置资产安全吗\n\n首先，比特币作为货币的天然缺陷，反倒是其作为资产的优势。比特币之所以很难替代现有货币，很大一部分原因在于存在供给固定的天然缺陷。当前流通中的比特币数量已接近1900万个，而其数量上限被设定在2100万个，这也就意味着比特币如果作为货币，将给经济带来通缩的困扰，或重蹈金本位下大萧条的覆辙。但如果将比特币当成抵御流动性泛滥的资产，供给固定可预测就成为了它优于黄金的优点之一。\n\n其次，相比于黄金这类实物资产，以数字形式存在的比特币便于携带转移，而且无很高的储藏成本，私密性也相对较强，和信息网络相依存的特征也更加切合新生代投资者的习惯。\n\n再次，黄金已经基本上退出了支付流通领域，而比特币的支付范围在不断扩大。如纽约州金融服务局已经批复了28个虚拟货币相关的许可，支持比特币支付的企业名单也在不断增加，特斯拉、微软和PayPal等大公司位列其中。\n\n从资金流向上也能够看到，投资黄金的资金可能正在转向比特币。如SPDR黄金信托的总资产从2020年底的超过700亿美元降至目前不足600亿美元，而同期GBTC比特币信托的总资产由175亿美元左右升至目前的超过400亿美元。\n\n传统资产“安全感”缺乏 把比特币作为可配置资产安全吗\n\n“安全感”并非完美\n\n比特币也并非完美，其最大的劣势在于面临监管风险。\n\n美联储和财政部对于比特币都表达过负面看法，其本质在于担心其对于美元信用的影响。而就我国而言，比特币目前恐也难有大规模推广，主要是因为他为实体经济带来的好处还有待研究，按照央行前行长周小川的说法，“要提醒，要小心”。\n\n央行副行长李波在博鳌亚洲论坛上也指出，正在研究对比特币、稳定币监管规则，将来任何稳定币如果希望成为一个得到广泛使用的支付工具，必须要接受严格监管，就像银行或准银行金融机构一样受到严格监管。全球各经济体对于比特币的合法性认定并不相同，如越南就认定比特币非法，而我国大陆对于比特币的态度为限制使用。\n\n传统资产“安全感”缺乏 把比特币作为可配置资产安全吗\n\n市值规模有限，市场有待成熟\n\n总结来看，疫情冲击使得全球对于安全资产的需求上升，而传统资产能够提供的安全性趋于减弱。在这样的背景下，比特币作为新兴的另类资产，充当了抵御经济衰退和流动性泛滥的重要角色，因此价格得以一路上涨。\n\n传统资产“安全感”缺乏 把比特币作为可配置资产安全吗\n\n但比特币市场还有待成熟，监管措施仍不完善，当前总市值也依然较小，尚不足美股的2%，仅是美国国债规模的4%左右，参与者相对有限，因此价格难免具备高波动的特征。对于杠杆交易的投机行为，需要保持谨慎。",
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