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      "body": "US DOLLAR RETREATS AFTER FOMC MEETING\nThe US dollar sell-off resumed with form after the FOMC passed without incident causing US yields to remain almost unchanged. Having reduced short positions into the meeting, investors scrambled to reinstate them afterwards, with the EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD all rallying.\n\nThe dollar index fell 0.32% to 90.55 as G-10 currencies strengthened. The index tested 90.50 before moving back to 90.55. If US GDP passes without incident, the index will probably continue falling towards 90.00.\n\nEUR/USD rose 0.35% to 1.2130, and although retreating ahead of 1.2150, maintains a technical target of 1.2250. GBP/USD has risen to 1.3945 today, and a break of 1.4000 resistance signals further gains to 1.4300 in the week ahead. AUD/USD has recovered all of its CPI-related losses from yesterday, climbing to 0.7785. It has an initial target of 0.8000. NZD/USD rose 0.70% to 0.7245 and initially targets 0.7300, with the technical picture suggesting that further gains above 0.7450 are now possible.\n\nInterestingly, Asia sold the US dollar versus the majors, only for it to retrace all of those losses leaving the G-10 currencies pretty much unchanged from their New York closes. With all roads leading to the US GDP data, the major currency pairs may be content to join equity markets in wait-and-see mode for the rest of the session.\n\nAsian currencies have played catchup and are broadly former versus the greenback, with the PBOC setting a stronger CNY fix at 6.4715. The Indian rupee continues to be the standout performer, USD/INR falling to 74.327 overnight, before easing once again to 74.30. It is hard to believe that USD/INR was nearing 76.000 last week. With the RBI reducing borrowing costs locally this week, equities have soared, and international fast money has followed despite the pandemic situation. The USD/INR sell-off may have more to go, with the one-year trendline if broke after the RBI QE announcement, a reasonable target. Today it lies at 73.800.\n\n \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/fomc-sinks-the-us-dollar-200576213)</center>",
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      "body": "The recovery in equities that saw the S&P 500 set new record highs, the US raise $120 bln in coupon sales, and an ECB that promised to \"significantly\" boost bond purchases immediately fizzled ahead of the weekend. The US dollar rebounded too after key supports held and interest rate differentials widened further.\n\nAlthough the price action has felt choppy, a few trend moves have been underway. Consider that US Treasury yields (3-year through 30-year) have moved higher for the sixth consecutive week. The CRB Index rose for the seventh consecutive week and has only fallen one week this year. It is up over15.5% so far this year. Crude oil consolidated in recent days after rising dramatically since the bottoming on Nov. 2 (The outcome of Georgia's special election that gave the Democratic Party its parity in the Senate is not even identifiable on the chart of oil or bonds).\n\nThe dollar finished the week on a firm note. Divergence has been underlined. The ECB's intention to (significantly) step-up bond purchases, while the US goes from a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus measures to initiating infrastructure negotiations that could be as large as the stimulus. On top of that, an executive order forces states to ensure that all willing adults can be vaccinated in early May. Still, the dollar's advance seems mature. Against many currencies, the nadir was reached in the first week of January.\n\nDollar Index: On last week's pullback, the Dollar Index largely held the (38.2%) retracement objective of this month's rally, which came in near 91.40 (actual low ~91.36) and bounced. It stalled in front of 92.00. A move above there signals a retest on the 92.50 area seen earlier in March. We had suggested a 92.75 measuring target from a bottoming pattern and note that the 200-day moving average is near 92.85 now. The momentum indicators are elevated and may be rolling over but do not stand in the way of a marginal new high.\n\nEuro: The single-currency extended its post-US job report losses in the first part of last week, falling to almost $1.1835. It rebounded to about $1.1990, which corresponds with the (38.2%) retracement objective of the downtrend since the Feb. 25 high near $1.2245. Ahead of the weekend, it tested the upper end of a band of support that is seen been $1.1895 and $1.1915. A break signal a test on the recent low near $1.1835 and the 200-day moving average (~$1.1840). Recall that around last November election was $1.16. The MACD and Slow Stochastic appear to be turning up from over-extended territory. It seems to be closer to the end of the boxer's punch than the start of it.\n\nJapanese Yen:The dollar pushed to almost JPY109.25 early last week, backed off to around JPY1080.35, and made another attempt to establish a foothold about JPY109. However, for the second time last week, it failed to close above it. The MACD continues to trend higher, but the Slow Stochastic is rolling over. The 50-day moving average is poised to cross above the 200-day moving average (deadman's cross or golden cross) around the middle of next week. The JPY110 area offers psychological resistance for the dollar. It has not finished a month above it since April 2019. Rising oil prices impact Japan through the trade channel (boosting imports) and the exchange rate that appears sensitive to rising US rates. A break below the JPY108.30 area could signal a near-term top is in place and project initially toward JPY107.60. The BOJ may confirm a change in tactics in its ETF purchases, but the exchange rate seems to be more a function of international developments rather than domestic.\n\nBritish Pound: Sterling peaked around $1.4235 on February 24, solidified a shelf in the $1.3780-$13800 area at the start of last week. The subsequent buying lifted sterling briefly and marginally above $1.40. However, as part of the broad dollar recovery, sterling tumbled to around $1.3860 ahead of the weekend. The trendline drawn off the December lows and early February low begins the new week near $1.3850, and a convincing break could signal a 1.5-2.0-cent decline. The technical indicators are mixed. The MACD has returned to neutrality and has gone mostly sideways in recent days. The Slow Stochastic, on the other hand, is curling up from oversold territory. The close before the weekend was near the middle of the session's range. A convincing move above $1.40 would target the recent high. The Bank of England, like the other major central banks that have met since bond yields have risen, is expected to highlight the weakness of the labor market and the transitory and technical nature of the anticipated increase in prices.\n\nCanadian Dollar: The US dollar fell by about 1.5% against the Canadian dollar last week, the most among the major currencies and the largest weekly loss of the year. The jobs reports showed employment surged by nearly 260k last month, which was more than three times greater than the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey. Unemployment fell to 8.2% from 9.4% even while the participation rate was steady. The greenback fell to a margin new three-year low, around CAD1.2460. The snapback in the labor market, coupled with the spillover of the US fiscal stimulus, and progress with the vaccine, should allow the Bank of Canada at its April meeting to signal its intentions to taper its C$4 bln weekly bond purchases perhaps by the end of Q2. The momentum indicators favor further US dollar weakness. The next important band of support is CAD1.2250-CAD1.2350, and I suspect the CAD1.2400 area may be sticky. However, the immediate note of caution is that the US dollar finished the week below its lower Bollinger® Band (~CAD1.2500).\n\nAustralian Dollar: Ahead of the weekend, the Australian dollar tested the $0.7800 level and found sellers waiting that took it back down nearly 1% before bids were found just in front of the previous session's low. The MACD and Slow Stochastic are turning up as the correction since the Feb. 25 high above $0.8000 appears to have run its course (bottoming near $0.7625). A move above $0.7820 is needed to reanimate the uptrend. The pre-weekend activity may have been consolidative in nature. The Aussie rose a little less than 1% (more than all but the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, among the majors) to post its first increase in three weeks. This coming week, Australia is expected to report a pick-up in job growth and retail sales in February.\n\nMexican Peso: The US dollar began last week, extending its advance to almost MXN21.6360, its highest level since spike as US polls closed last November. The dollar's four-day rally was followed by a three-day slide that saw it shed about 4.2% and saw it approach the previous week's low near MXN20.55. Although the dollar consolidated ahead of the weekend against the peso, the momentum indicators suggest the path of least resistance is lower for the greenback. The next area of chart support is close to MXN20.35. For the first time in a year, the 60-day rolling correlation of the dollar-peso exchange rates and the 10-year yield has turned positive, and that correlation is the highest since early 2017 (0.83).\n\nChinese Yuan: Chinese stocksare underperforming this year. Among the large markets, it is the only one that is down. An attempt to lend official support to stocks during the National People's Congress was not successful, as reported in the press. The PBOC's ability to manage the currency has been a bit more successful. The US dollar set new highs for Q1 last week (~CNY6.5440) and then pulled back to around CNY6.4775, just above the 20-day moving average (~CNY6.4760) which may mark the near-term range. A week before top Biden administration officials will meet with senior Chinese officials for the first time, the US deemed it necessary to tighten up the sanctions on Huawei. It would seem to deter a goodwill gesture by Chinese officials of allowing the yuan to rise, even if the greenback is otherwise bid, for example. Meanwhile, while the interest rate premium offered by Chinese government bonds over Treasuries (10-year) has narrowed by more than 60 bp to about 160 bp this year, the low volatility contributes to portfolio construction decisions. The 3-month implied volatility for the yuan is about 5.5%, which is nearly a percentage point below the least volatile of the majors (euro). \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/fx-price-action-beginning-or-end-of-the-punch-200567078)</center>",
      "title": "FX Price Action: Beginning Or End Of The Punch?",
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      "body": "The week ahead is one of the most event-packed weeks of the first quarter. There are elections and central bank meetings in addition to a series of high-frequency data that includes the first look at March surveys (Philadelphia Fed and ZEW).\n\nThe central bank meetings (FOMC, BOE, and BOJ) will command the most attention, but the elections come first chronologically. Two German states (Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Wurttemberg) will be held on March 14. They are important to global investors and businesses because of what they may portend for the national elections in late September. Rhineland-Palatinate is currently a center-left coalition by the Social Democrats, Free Democrats, and Greens. Baden-Wurttemberg is the only state the Greens lead, but they are in a coalition with the Christian Democrats.\n\nSome suggest this \"green-black\" coalition could be replicated on the federal level. Indeed, as the presence of the Greens hints, they could become Germany's second party in September by overtaking the SPD, which has been cohabiting with the CDU for so long that some think the distinction has blurred. On Predict\nIt.Org, the new head of the CDU, Laschet, formerly the head of North Rhine-Westphalia's government, is trailing behind Soder, the head of the CDU's sister party in Bavaria for Chancellor. The CSU has been critical of Merkel from the right, while Laschet represents greater continuity. The Green's Baerbock is slightly ahead of the SPD's Scholz but far behind the CDU/CSU.\n\nThe Dutch election will be held on Mar. 17. While the two-party system has its critics, Dutch politics are so fragmented that after the last general election in 2017, it took 225 days to forge a new government. There are nearly 90 registered political parties, and more than a dozen have seats in the lower chamber (House of Representatives). For international investors and businesses, the election may be a test of the support for the nationalistic anti-immigration, populist message of the People's Party for Freedom, the country's second-largest party.\n\nEven if monetary policy is exhausted, as some claim, next week's central bank meetings are center stage. The FOMC meeting concludes on Mar. 17, followed by the now customary press conference. It is possible that to distinguish monetary policy proper from the regulatory function, the Fed may choose to address the Mar. 31 expiry of the exemption of Treasury holdings and excess reserves from the calculation of supplementary leverage ratio separately from the meeting. That exemption allows the banks' balance sheets to be around $600 bln larger than otherwise, according to estimates. With record government deficits and large-scale asset purchases ($120 bln a month) by the Federal Reserve, bank capacity is a key part of the plumbing.\n\nThe other plumbing issue is the continued drawdown of the Treasury's cash position with the Federal Reserve. As a result, fewer bills are issued, and funds with flexibility can shift and put downward pressure on other money market rates. The general collateral repo rate, for example, is so distorted (negative) that a bank is paid for lending Treasuries and taking cash. Those who must invest in government bills are pressing yields lower and already yield less than 10 bp annualized out a year. There is a risk that the Fed responds by tweaking the interest on reserves (Note: the Fed pays interest on all reserves, not just excess reserves) or the reverse repo rate.\n\nThe Fed's stance on monetary policy proper has been well articulated and will most likely the statement will be unanimously approved. The economy is far from reaching the Fed's targets; around 9.5 mln jobs have been lost during the pandemic, and more people are filing weekly initial jobless claims than at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis. The current settings, the Fed submits, are appropriate, and that includes the balance sheet expansion. The rise in yields is mostly a reflection of optimism about the future and that the resulting price pressures will likely be transitory.\n\nThe pace of the move did receive attention. The 10-year yield has risen by around 72 bp so far this quarter. It is the fifth-largest quarter since 1995. From the end of January through Mar. 12, the 10-year yield rose six consecutive weeks from around 1.06% to 1.64% at the end of last week. With headline CPI at 1.7% in February, ad real growth anticipated to be more than three-times stronger, a 10-year yield of 1.6% cannot be considered high. In the last quarter before the pandemic, the 10-year yield averaged almost 1.80%.\n\nFed officials could be protesting the rise in rates as it's more than what it wanted. The fact that it hasn't, seemed to reduce the risks that it will introduce yield curve control or some version of \"Operation Twist.\" The Fed might have preferred a more gradual pace, but it is likely not disturbed by the move's magnitude. On the one hand, with the economy set to boom with the fiscal stimulus and vaccine, some argue that the Fed ought to be tapering. On the other hand, some critics want it to take stronger action to \"quell investor nerves,\" as one journalist put it. Powell's answer was clear and unequivocal. The bond purchases do not target an interest rate but financial conditions more broadly, which is the same essential point ECB President Lagarde made at the press conference.\n\nThe Bank of England meets on Mar. 18, the day after the FOMC meeting concludes. Former BOE Governor King was outvoted at least a couple of times, but it seems clear that the current governor speaks for the majority when he underscores the downside economic risks and the considerable slack in the economy. The furlough program may be hiding some unemployment that may become more evident later.\n\nAt the start of the year, the short-sterling market was pricing in negative rates. This was true of the December 2022 contract through January. Since early February, the rate has been positive and rose to 40 bp by the end of last month and is now near 35 bp. Perhaps some participants were inspired by comments from Haldane, the central bank's chief economist. He does not appear to be singing from the same songbook as the other members of the monetary policy committee and has suggested the central bank may be complacent about the looming inflation risks. Even after Bailey's efforts to counter such expectations, the contract was still implying a rate hike next year.\n\nThe Bank of Japan's meeting concludes on Mar. 19. It will have completed its formal review of the three elements of monetary policy: asset purchases, negative rates, and yield curve control. While the BOJ won't back away from negative rates, there is speculation about the other two levers. After buying equity ETFs for more than a decade, the BOJ is sitting on more than $100 bln of profits and owns an estimated 7% of the stock in the Tokyo Stock Exchange first section. The BOJ limits itself to JPY6 trillion a year (~$56 bln) but during the chaos of last year, lifted it (temporarily) to JPY12 trillion.\n\nWith both of Japan's main benchmarks, the Nikkei and the Topix, trading near the best levels since the 1990s, the BOJ is likely rethinking its equity purchase strategy. Some market observers suggest that officials may have already changed their tactics. The BOJ could jettison the annual target will preserve the ability to intervene in disorderly markets.\n\nUnder its yield curve control, the 10-year yield is allowed to move in a 20 bp range on either side of zero. The rise in global long-term rates has served to drag Japanese rates higher too. In late February, the 10-year JGB yield rose to a five-year of 18 bp. There was some speculation that the BOJ would widen the range. However, BOJ Governor Kuroda seemed to try to dampen such expectations. Instead, under the policy review, the goal is to make the policy framework more effective. This suggests minor tweaks, like not preannouncing purchases, for example. However, comments early last week by Deputy Governor Amamiya seemed to keep the door ajar. Amamiya suggested that yields could fluctuate more provided that they did not disrupt the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.\n\nIn summary, of the three G7 central banks that meet next week, the Bank of Japan is the most likely to adjust policy. The Fed and BOE are unlikely to take fresh measures or alter forward guidance, and that itself is an important message. While both countries' governments are boosting fiscal stimulus, the central bankers expect the inflationary bump to be modest and transitory. The high-frequency economic data poses headline risk but is unlikely to alter underlying views that the huge amount of stimulus the US is providing will create diverging economic outcomes. America's sixth fiscal package during the pandemic is larger than the GDP of all but the nine large economies after the US. The Federal Reserve shows no intention to deviate from its long-term asset purchase program of $1.44 trillion annual rates.\n\nPeak divergence is likely to be this quarter or next. By midyear, the vaccine rollout is likely to accelerate in Europe and Japan. The European Union Recovery Fund is expected to begin distributions. The base effect that bolsters the appearance of US price pressures in the March through May period is revered in June, July, and August, when the headline rate jumped by 0.4%-0.5% each month.\n\nThe US debt ceiling suspension ends in July, though Treasury Secretary Yellen, like several of her predecessors, can buy a few months through savvy cash management techniques. Before then, the US Treasury will have brought its cash balances down, which has been a critical factor driving some short-term rates below zero. The latest extension of federal unemployment compensation is also extended to early September and will begin the chins wagging about a fiscal cliff. The point is that this is not the time for linear projections for either inflation or the widening divergence in the US favor. The debt-driven growth will cause the current account deficit to yawn and fuel concern about the twin-deficits. As attention shifts from the stimulus bill to the infrastructure, a sense of a boundless America may both excite and scare investors. \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/event-packed-week-on-tap-german-dutch-elections-fomc-boe-boj-meetings-200567045)</center>",
      "title": "Event Packed Week On Tap: German, Dutch Elections; FOMC, BOE, BOJ Meetings",
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      "body": "Traders are still digesting the surprising outcome of Thursday’s ECB meeting, wherein the central bank announced that it would start purchasing bonds at a “significantly higher pace” over the next quarter in an attempt to get ahead of rising yields and (potential) increasing price pressures in the coming months.\n\nBeyond its immediate implications for European assets, this decision underscores different approaches to THE biggest question vexing global central bankers this year: Is the coordinated rise in bond yields across the globe signaling excessive inflation in the coming quarters?\n\nWhile the ECB appears to think the answer to that question may be “yes,” recent comments from Federal Reserve policymakers suggest that they’re still skeptical of a sustained uptick in inflation. With the US central bank scheduled for their semi-quarterly monetary policy meeting on Wednesday March 17, traders will be eager to see if the Fed’s resolve remains steadfast. To that end, a couple of solid to outright strong long-term Treasury bond auctions this week could convince the central bank to hold off on any additional stimulus at this month’s meeting.\n\nFED MEETING: KEY THINGS TO WATCH\nThis month’s meeting will be accompanied by the quarterly update to the central bank’s economic projections, and given the recent shifts in yields and market-based measures of inflation expectations, the most important data point to watch will be the central bank’s expectations for interest rates in 2022 and 2023 (the infamous “dot plot”).\n\nIn their December projections, only one Fed policymaker expected interest rates to rise off the current, essentially 0% interest rate level by 2022. If several more policymakers indicate an expected rate hike as soon as next year, or if the median member starts to expect a hike in 2023, it would show that US central bankers may not be as united and sanguine on price pressures as they’ve appeared to date.\n\nIn addition to interest rate expectations, the market will also scrutinize the central bank's economic projections. Given the just-passed fiscal stimulus bill and rapid progress of vaccinations in the country, the Fed’s December forecasts for 4.2% economic growth and a 5.0% unemployment rate at the end of the year look overly pessimistic; they are likely to be revised higher, though it will be interesting to see if those revisions also “pull forward” previously-expected economic improvements from 2022 and 2023.\n\nFinally, any changes to the official monetary policy statement, as well as the general tone of Fed Governor Jerome Powell’s press conference, could provide insight on the Fed’s plans moving forward. Expect media members to grill Powell on the definition of “substantial progress” toward the central bank’s employment and price stability goals in an attempt to glean insight into when bond purchases could cease and interest rates could rise.\n\nGiven its previous premature attempts to tighten policy, the central bank may be most likely to remain in “lower for longer” / “wait and see” for this meeting, with any evidence of rising inflation characterized as transitory for now.\n\nFED MEETING: USD IMPACT\nAs for the world’s reserve currency, the US dollar has caught a bid so far this month, albeit off a relatively low level. If the Fed makes no changes to policy and expresses no immediate concerns about inflation, it would serve as a proverbial “green light” for traders to push bond yields, and by extension the US dollar, higher. Meanwhile, any explicit concerns about inflation or hints at stepping up bond purchases like we saw from the ECB could hit the greenback and drive the dollar index lower.\n\nUSD Index Daily Chart https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/picb9bf10462899b7bd6de5454b3a4d0189.png USD Index Daily Chart\n\n \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/fomc-meeting-preview-will-inflation-spook-the-fed-200567048)</center>",
      "title": "FOMC Meeting Preview: Will Inflation Spook The Fed?",
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      "body": "The EUR/USD Forex market on the daily chart rallied three days after a strong breakout below the Feb. 5 low. Yesterday is a Low1 sell signal bar, and the Nov. 4 low is a magnet below.\n\nEUR/USD Daily Chart. https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/picdbca104d9e70ef1239ed3135f88cbd2c.png EUR/USD Daily Chart.\n\nHowever, the selloff was extreme and, therefore, climactic. Also, there have been three legs down from the January high and, therefore, the bear channel is a wedge. The three-day reversal up was strong enough for traders to expect at least a small 2nd leg up. Also, yesterday was a bull bar closing near its high, and therefore a weak sell signal bar for today. Consequently, while yesterday is a sell signal bar in a bear trend, there probably are more buyers than sellers below its low.\n\nToday is Friday, and weekly support and resistance can be important. The EUR/USD is now trading just above the open of the week, so the weekly candlestick is a bull doji, which is slightly bullish. The bulls want the week to close on its high. This week would then be a good buy signal bar on the weekly chart. That would increase the chance of higher prices next week. But the bears want lower prices. Their odds will go up if this week has a bear body and closes below the midpoint.\n\nOVERNIGHT EUR/USD FOREX TRADING\nThe 5-minute chart of the EUR/USD Forex market sold off overnight from yesterday’s close. It traded below yesterday’s low and completely reversed yesterday’s rally. The bears want today to close near its low. Today would then be the second bar of a two-bar reversal on the daily chart. Traders would see today as a better sell signal bar for Monday. Also, if the week closes below its midpoint, fewer traders would be willing to buy above this week’s high.\n\nThe bulls want the week to close above the open. After the overnight strong selloff, today will probably not close at the high of the week, so this week will likely not be a strong buy signal bar on the weekly chart. The best the bulls probably can get is a close above the open of the week. The reversal up over the past three hours was big enough, so that the bulls have at least a 50% chance of achieving their goal.\n\nDay traders only sold early in the session, but they bought below yesterday’s low, and the EUR/USD has rallied 30 pips over the past three hours. That is enough so that bulls will buy pullbacks. Since a reversal up to yesterday’s high is unlikely, today will probably be sideways. Day traders will look to scalp in both directions. The fight will be over the close of the week. The bulls will try to get the week to close above the open and the bears want a bear close on the weekly chart. This week will probably close near the open, with either a small bull or bear body on the weekly chart. \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/eurusd-rallied-for-3-days-200566867)</center>",
      "title": "EUR/USD: Rallied For 3 Days",
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      "body": "USD/JPY ranges from important resistance at 109.00/10 to first support at 108.30/20.\n\nEUR/JPY we wrote: holding above 129.45/55 is a buy signal targeting 129.85/95. A break above 130.05 is a buy signal initially targeting 130.30/35.\n\nWe bottomed exactly at 129.45/55 and have reached 130.28.\n\nCAD/JPY shorts at 8615/25 unfortunately stopped above 8665.\n\nTODAY’S ANALYSIS\nUSD/JPY scalpers can buy a break above 108.80 to target important longer term resistance at 109.00/10. Try shorts with stops above 109.35.\n\nFirst support at 108.30/20. (We bottomed exactly here this week) Further losses meet strong support at 107.65/55.\n\nEUR/JPY holding above 129.45/55 is a buy signal targeting 129.85/95. A break above 130.05 is a buy signal initially targeting 130.30/35. If we continue higher today look for 130.55/60.\n\nBuy 129.55/45 with stops below 129.30.\n\nCAD/JPY holding above 8615/25 is a buy signal as we target 8685/95. A break above 8705 targets 8740/50.\n\nFirst support at 8640/30. Longs need stops below 8615.\n\nTRENDS\n * Weekly Outlook Neutral\n * Daily Outlook Neutral\n * Short Term Outlook Neutral\n\nJPY Chart https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/picdce972e8fd64a21e13c538716096535f.png JPY Chart \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/usdjpy-eurjpy-and-cadjpy-outlook-neutral-200566822)</center>",
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      "body": "The global capital markets are reversing hard into the weekend. Yesterday's rally lifted US benchmarks to a record high fizzled even though most Asia Pacific markets (with Hong Kong and India being large notable exceptions) rose. Europe's Dow Jones STOXX 600 is ending a four-day advance. It is off around 0.4% near midday in Europe, while US futures indices are off after a three-day rally. The NASDAQ is particularly hard high (-1.7%)\n\nAfter fairly smooth auctions this week, US Treasuries have been sold, and the 10-year yield is hovering around 1.60%. Eurozone benchmark yields more muted with the ECB apparently stepping up its efforts, and most are up 1-2 bp. A better than expected UK January GDP report weighs on Gilts, and the 10-year yield is up five basis points. The dollar is broadly higher. Against most of the major currencies, it is 0.5%-0.8% higher.\n\nThe Canadian dollar is faring the best, off less than 0.2%. Emerging market currencies are heavy, though a handful of Asian currencies have managed to post minor gains. The liquid and accessible emerging market currencies, like the Turkish lira, Mexican peso, and South African rand, are around 1% lower.\n\nGold, which flirted with $1740 yesterday, has been sold through $1700, but is straddling that area near midday in Europe. Oil prices remain firm, and April WTI is hovering around $66.\n\nASIA PACIFIC\nThe Australian dollar has appreciated by almost 10% since early November's pivot in terms of the US election and vaccine. However, the country seems to be struggling with the shifting sands of the global political economy. Its foreign policy antagonizes its largest trading partner. It took the lead in trying to make the transmission of the news part of the internet fairer. It is trying to negotiate a free-trade deal with the EU.\n\nThe problem is that the EU is adopting more environmentally sustainable policies faster than Australia. This gives Australian producers a competitive advantage (they don't have to pay for the negative externality, free-rider problem). This week the EU Parliament moved closer to demanding a carbon levy on products from countries said to be lacking substantial efforts to reduce pollution. The legislation is still be worked out but could be ready by the end of Q2. While the tariff's size is important from a competitive point of view, the mere imposition is significant. It reflects the failure of a multilateral approach (e.g., OECD). It also illustrates how a global issue like the environment can strengthen nationalist/regional responses.\n\nThere is a general concern about the US presence in Asia as there seems little chance that Trump's decision to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership will be reversed anytime soon. As its share of trade in the region falls, the US will have to increasingly rely on other channels to project its power. The Biden Administration's first diplomatic thrust begins today. Biden will virtually attend the first Quad (for Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) meeting that includes India, Australia, and Japan.\n\nThis will be followed in short order by Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin visiting South Korea and Japan. It is not coincidental that South Korea agreed earlier this week to a six-year agreement for funding of US troops stationed there, which the State Department had called an \"unnecessary irritant.\" Reports indicate that South Korea's offer was a little sweeter than the one made to the previous administration.\n\nToward the end of next week, Blinken and the head of the National Security Agency Sullivan will meet with senior Chinese officials in Anchorage. A two-prong strategy is evident. On the one hand, the rhetoric of techno-democracies and techno-authoritarianism, the elevated status Taiwan is being given, maintaining tariffs, and other sanctions of the Trump era is confrontation. Indeed, reports indicate that the US has formally notified Huawei suppliers that conditions on \"previously approved export licenses\" will be tightened to prohibit the sales of components that could be used in 5\nG, including semiconductor chips, antennas, and batteries. India is expected to block Huawei under rules that are due to be implemented in June.\n\nOn the other hand, those very actions ironically may help find an area or two of cooperation. At the very least, normalizing military contacts minimize the risk of accidents. It would probably also be helpful to resume a regular dialogue. Movement toward an arms control for cyber-warfare may be beyond the pale.\n\nThe dollar forged a base in recent days in the JPY108.30-JPY108.40 area, and a $1.6 bln option at the lower end of the range expires today. The dollar held below JPY108.80 in the first part of the local session before pushing above JPY109 in late turnover. It has remained above JPY109.00 in the European morning but held below the high set earlier this week, a touch shy of JPY109.25. The high from last June was near JPY109.85, and psychological resistance is offered by JPY110.00.\n\nThe Australian dollar stalled after recovering around half of the losses seen since reversing after testing $0.8000, which came in near $0.7815. The $0.7720 area may attract as an option for nearly A$1 bln is struck there and expires today. The dollar has traded on both sides of yesterday's range against the Chinese yuan, and it is poised to finish the week above CNY6.50. It is rising for the first time in three sessions. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate closest to the bank models anticipated in a few days (CNY6.4845 vs. CNY6.4853). Note: China put Tencent on notice as it continues to crack down on fintech, and its high-frequency reports (e.g., retail sale, industrial output, fixed-asset investment, unemployment) may be reported before markets open on Monday.\n\nEUROPE\nAround two months after Greenspan became the head of the Fed in August, he had to deal with the October '87 equity crash that saw the S&P 500 fall by a fifth in a single day. Lagarde, who became the President of the ECB in November of 2019, has had her own baptism by fire. Yesterday's press conference may have been her best performance thus far. She deftly handled difficult questions and was patient with reporters, which made her repeat herself a few times. There were a few takeaways.\n\nFirst, it will immediately boost its bond-buying \"significantly.\"It is not clear what \"significant\" means, and Lagarde was not about to specify it. Strategic ambiguity maximizes the central bank's flexibility. Buying will be stepped up for the next three months when the Governing Council will reassess based on inflation, financial conditions (understood \"holistically\" and \"multi-faceted\"). Market participants should not confuse size with impact. Consider that in Jan-Feb, the Fed's balance sheet expanded by 1.1% of GDP, and the US 10-year yield rose by almost 50 bp. The ECB's balance sheet increased by 0.9% of GDP, and the yield of Italy's 10-year bond rose by 22 bp while the German Bund yield rose by 30 bp.\n\nSecond, the central bank was not deterred by the likelihood that the regional economy contracts in Q1. It tweaked its growth forecast to 4% from 3.9% this year and shaved it to 4.1% from 4.2% next year before slowing to 2.1% in 2023 (unchanged from the December forecast). The ECB's staff now see inflation accelerating to 1.5% this year. Previously, it forecast a 1.0% rise. Next year's inflation forecast is seen easing to 1.2%. In December, it had forecast a 1.1% increase. The 2023 HICP forecast was left at 1.4%. The signal, reiterated by Lagarde, is that the near-term rise in price pressures is mostly technical and will not be sustained.\n\nThird, the ECB seemed more confident that the worst has passed. It recognized that the risks were more balanced. Lagarde concurred with the OECD recent assessment that large fiscal stimulus will have some positive knock-on effects for the eurozone. Growth can be helped through the trade channel, for example, while at the same time boosting the inflation outlook. Lagarde noted that the new forecasts do not include the US fiscal package's impact, but June forecasts will. The ECB President also recognized that the European Recovery Fund will lag a little behind the US stimulus, but it will be forthcoming.\n\nThe UK economy contracted by 2.9% in January, which was not quite as bad as the 4.9% drop in output economists expected in Bloomberg's survey. The better showing was the result of a smaller decline in services (-3.5% rather than -5.5%), a rise in construction (0.9% vs. -1.0%), and a smaller trade deficit (-GBP1.6 bln vs. -GBP4.6 bln). These made up for the larger than expected 1.5% slump in industrial output, led by a 2.3% plunge in manufacturing output. The implementation of new border controls under Brexit appears to have reduced trade volumes.\n\nThe three-day rally that saw the euro advance from around $1.1835 to nearly $1.2000 yesterday has been stopped cold in its tracks. In the European morning, the euro has been sold through $1.1930, which housed an expiring billion euro option. There is another option at $1.1900 for about 575 mln euros that also expires today. The $1.20-level corresponded to important retracement levels, and the setback undermines the technical tone, and a close below $1.1900 today would darken the outlook. Sterlingpoked above $1.40 for the first time this week before reversing lower and falling through yesterday's low (~$1.3920). A close below yesterday's low (outside down day) has bearish implication and suggest a move to $1.38 (and likely below) in the coming days.\n\nAMERICA\nThe US reports February producer prices.The year-over-year rates likely accelerated even though the monthly headline and core increases will slow. The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer survey may be worth a quick look, but the growing sense of confidence is palpable. The $1400 checks in the US, and importantly, if not discussed as much, the tax credits, coupled with the accelerating vaccinations, are boosting confidence and lifting expectations.\n\nYesterday's report showed that US household net worth surged 5.6% or nearly $7 trillion in Q4 20 on the back of rising equities and house prices. The value of equity holdings rose by almost $5 trillion, while real estate valuation rose by $915 bln. While savings also rose, households took on more debt. Debt rose at a 6.5% annualized pace, the most in 13 years.\n\nCanada is expected to have grown jobs last month for the first time since November. Recall the sequence of events. When the pandemic struck, and policy responded, three million people lost their jobs in Canada. From May through November 2020, a little more than two million people returned. However, in December and January, 265k jobs were lost. These were all part-time positions, as full-time jobs grew, albeit slightly (~55k). Central bank Governor Macklem expressed concern that it will take some time for the labor market to recover from the pandemic shock.\n\nThe US dollar had looked poised to challenge the multiyear low recorded against the Canadian dollar late last month (~CAD1.2470), but instead has come back firmer and is rising for the first time in four sessions. Still, the Canadian dollar is showing some resilience, and the greenback needs to resurface above the CAD1.2580 area to squeeze some of the late US dollar shorts. Above there, the first target is near CAD1.2620.\n\nThe US dollar set a high at the start of the week near MXN21.6350 and yesterday, had fallen to about MXN20.5850. The risk-off move ahead of the weekend has seen the greenback jump above MXN20.8800. Yesterday's high was near MXN20.93, and a move above there would likely signal additional dollar gains at the start of next week. The MXN20.99 area is the first retracement (38.2%) of this week's dollar decline, and the (50%) mark is near MXN21.11. \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/stocks-and-bonds-tumbling-into-the-weekend-200566792)</center>",
      "title": "Stocks And Bonds Tumbling Into The Weekend",
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      "body": "The British pound is in negative territory in the Friday session. Currently, GDP/USD is trading at 1.3920, down 0.51% on the day.\n\nGDP, MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION DECLINE\nThe pound has registered considerable losses on Friday after a data dump out of the UK showed some disappointing results. The monthly GDP report indicated that the economy contracted by 2.9% in January. This was considerably better than the street consensus of -4.9%, but showed a downturn in growth after a gain of 1.2% in December. As well, it was the second decline in three months, raising concerns about the health of the economy.\n\nThe UK manufacturing sector has been solid, but Manufacturing Production started the year on the wrong foot, with a print of -2.3%. This beat the forecast of -1.0% and marked the first decline after nine straight months of growth. On an annual basis, the indicator declined by 5.0%. As well, Industrial Production fell by 1.5%.\n\nThe weak UK numbers have snuffed out this week’s strong rally by the pound, which saw GBP/USD cross above the 1.40 line in today’s Asian session before retreating close to the 1.39 line. US Treasury yields movement has caused significant volatility for the dollar, but with yields stabilizing, there has been more of a focus on fundamentals, and Friday’s news clearly soured investors on the British pound. Still, the pound is poised to have a winning week and could target the symbolic 1.40 level as early as next week.\n\nIn the US, the focus will be on inflation, with the Producer Price Index expected to slow to 0.4% in February. This would mark a sharp drop from the 1.3% gain beforehand.\n\nGBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS\nGBP/USD Daily Chart https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/picda602ca72490d6c185063a25e9f3bcea.png GBP/USD Daily Chart\n\n * There is resistance at 1.3997, which is protecting the symbolic 1.40 level. The next resistance line is at 1.4113\n * 1.3734 is providing strong support, followed by a support line at 1.3637\n\n \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/pound-slips-on-soft-uk-data-200566791)</center>",
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      "body": "To the market’s surprise, the European Central Bank announced plans to purchase bonds at a “significantly higher pace” over the next quarter. The decision was motivated by the recent rise in yields and concerns that “headline inflation is likely to increase in the coming months,” according to central bank President Christine Lagarde. Today’s move widens the distance between the ECB and the Federal Reserve, which does not see the increase in bond yields and inflation as a problem. This comes as the European Union’s vaccine rollout faces more setbacks, with delivery delays and new concerns about Astra\nZeneca’s vaccine. The vaccine’s use was halted temporarily in a few countries on concerns about increased risk of blood clots.The euro traded lower after the ECB decision, but the decline did not erase all of its earlier gains against the U.S. dollar. The pair ended the day unchanged, in part, because of the central bank’s economic projections. The ECB raised its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2020 and 2021. This year, it expects the economy to expand by 4% and inflation to rise 1.5%. While the ECB expects the annualized CPI rate to hover around 1.5%, it said it could rise to 2% on a technical and temporary basis. Until the Eurozone recovery gains momentum, we continue to expect EUR/USD to underperform, especially if U.S. yields continue to rise. The Federal Reserve meets next week and it will update its economic projections. Stronger numbers will underscore the divide between the U.S. and Eurozone recoveries this year. EUR/USD support is still near the 200-day SMA at 1.1826.The U.S. dollar traded lower against most of the major currencies despite improvements in jobless claims and, according to the Biden administration, stimulus cheques will start going out by the end of the month. The continued rise in Treasury yields reflects the market’s optimism. Producer prices and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index are scheduled for release tomorrow. Stronger numbers are expected all around.After a week of quiet, sterling comes into focus on Friday, with the release of monthly GDP, industrial production and trade data. Most of these reports are expected to be better as the UK economy continues its recovery.USD/CAD sold off for the third day in a row ahead of what should be a very strong jobs report. After two months of extensive job losses, job growth is expected to return. Economists are looking for the economy to add more than 75,000 jobs, all of which should be full time. The Bank of Canada is worried about localized outbreaks and more transmissible variants of the virus, but it found reasons for optimism. This optimism should be reinforced by the data, which is expected to show an economy finally on its way to recovery. \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/ecb-surprises-with-faster-bond-buys-euro-unfazed-200566710)</center>",
      "title": "ECB Surprises With Faster Bond Buys, Euro Unfazed",
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      "body": "The EUR/USD forex market on the daily chart is reversing up from a sell climax at the bottom of a bear channel. Since there were 3 legs down, this is a wedge bottom reversal attempt.\n\nEUR/USD Daily https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic395a6bf8c0441a9b98721f79e416d4b1.png EUR/USD Daily\n\nAll reversals up from sell climaxes begin with short covering. I said that the EUR/USD should break above the Feb. 5 low this week. It did overnight.\n\nBut how far up will it go? If the bears get a strong bear bar today, there might be one more push down before a 2-week rally. If not, the current rally will probably last a couple weeks and have a couple legs. It could test the Mar. 3 lower high, which was the top of the most recent sell climax.\n\nTomorrow is Friday and this week is becoming a buy signal bar on the weekly chart. The more the week closes on the high, the more traders will expect higher prices next week. The week will probably not close back at the low, so the EUR/USD will probably be sideways to up for at least another week.\n\nOVERNIGHT EUR/USD FOREX TRADING\nThe 5-minute chart of the EUR/USD forex market rallied in the Asian session to above the Feb. 5 breakout point. However, it has been in a tight trading range for the 6 hours since. Day traders have been buying and selling for 10-pip scalps.\n\nWill the bears get a bear breakout and turn today into a Low 1 sell signal bar on the daily chart? Or, will the bulls either keep the day sideways or get a 2nd leg up? If the bulls win, tomorrow will probably be sideways to up as well.\n\nSo far, the EUR/USD is paying a lot of attention to the Feb. 5 low. It could continue sideways and then close a little above or below it. \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/eurusd-will-it-continue-sideways-200566579)</center>",
      "title": "EUR/USD: Will It Continue Sideways?",
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