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      "body": "Congratulations @forrestrun! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@forrestrun/birthday1.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 1 year!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@forrestrun) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](http://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=forrestrun)_</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-witness-update-2019-05\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/http://i.cubeupload.com/7CiQEO.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-witness-update-2019-05\">SteemitBoard - Witness Update</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemmeetupaachen/@steemitboard/steemitboard-to-support-the-german-speaking-community-meetups\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeoNp9iCaCfd2D6TqnWa3Aky2mU4Fm3xaSmjTM91YoNBS/image.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemmeetupaachen/@steemitboard/steemitboard-to-support-the-german-speaking-community-meetups\">SteemitBoard to support the german speaking community meetups</a></td></tr></table>\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "author": "wwstreet",
      "body": "首先非常感谢，认真的回复我，超出我的预期。这也是我steemit以来收到的最诚挚的回复。\n\n\n以下是我的一些新的问题或者观点，继续交流：\n>我能够做到的是管理好自己的资产。在国家去杠杆国策下，远离P2P金融理财平台。在这样的背景下，远离外汇，资金沉淀。远离房市，今天的房地产投资会成为未来自己身上的包袱。这些是盈利之外的层面上我能为国家做的。\n\n我不太懂经济，想讨论上面这个观点。 如果中美贸易必然带来的是两国受损，“国家”受损必定会分摊到国民（虽然大概率不是每个国民），其本质是国家是人民的，国家的利于亏空都是人民的。  那么此处你说的“这些是盈利之外的层面上我能为国家做的。“ 应该是有偏颇的，说不好听点是”我坚决不为国家背锅“，客观的、理性的将是 我避免做冤大头。（适者生存、优胜略汰）\n\n\n\n\n>随着劳动红利在2012年出现自改革开放以来的第一次绝对下降，劳动力低廉的竞争优势随着时间的发展逐渐会消失殆尽。这种消失还不是致命的，致命的是低成本下的经济模式。这种遗留下来的红利人口结构带来的劳动密集经济发展模式是没有竞争力的。\n\n对于这点我是比较乐观的，劳动红利消失，本身代表的是中国产业的升级，国民体力劳动率降低，对于国家来说是我们的进度，国力、生产能力的提升。  ```致命的是低成本下的经济模式。``` 这点我觉得是在新旧产业交替之际不可避免的，从第一产业走向第二产业的适应稳定期；未来的新一轮产业升级会带来同样的问题。\n\n有一点非常赞同，无论大趋势如何，对于个体提升自己的能力永远是没错的。",
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      "author": "kidsreturn",
      "body": "因为就是2016年拍到的呀~",
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      "body": "因为就是2016年呀~",
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      "author": "forrestrun",
      "body": "既然@了我，我就不得不说：我能怎么办，我也很想哭。本来我是不想面对这样一个惨烈的事实，我想麻痹自己活得歌舞升平。我一不是国家领导二不是商业巨胄，我只是中美贸易战下可能的牺牲品，即使活了下来也是未来待割的韭菜。\n#### 个人金融\n2015年10月在国家首都图书馆，我听了张维迎和陈志武的讲座，讲的是《通往自由之路<金融的逻辑2>》整个讲座我听的最多的两个字就是：制度，另外的两个字就是市场。\n\n金融制度没有改变，国有金融机构垄断，不可能有健全的民间资本，更不可能有健全的金融制度。从今天的区块链发展也能够看出来，美国的监管完善比我们不知道好了多少倍。外国人的保护私有财产的原则是其金融不断创新的根本，而我们的合法途径下的偷窃却是如此的易如反掌。国有资本对于规则的改动最后买单的还是普通纳税人。\n\n过去我们通过市场换技术，现在没有过多的市场可以割让，我们换技术挖人才的步伐递减。东南亚不断进入更多的资本以换取更高程度的利益，我们的全球制造市场进一步缩小。高质量的制造品又做不出，无论是出于工艺还是成本收益比，总之竞争力远远不如日本和欧盟，全球制造产品利润空间逐步缩小。从国内市场来看，流动资金主要聚集在房产和外汇上，一方面是供给侧改革，一方面是一带一路，一个是资金流动停滞，一个是基建项目困难重重。民间资本的力量几乎没有，金融市场的逻辑根本经受不住考验，但是有党在。\n\n我能够做到的是管理好自己的资产。在国家去杠杆国策下，远离P2P金融理财平台。在这样的背景下，远离外汇，资金沉淀。远离房市，今天的房地产投资会成为未来自己身上的包袱。这些是盈利之外的层面上我能为国家做的。剩下的就是消费，华为，小米为真正智能产品奉献上自己的价值贡献。希望我的一块钱对科技的创新有一点点的鼓励。\n\n#### 个人劳动力\n\n随着劳动红利在2012年出现自改革开放以来的第一次绝对下降，劳动力低廉的竞争优势随着时间的发展逐渐会消失殆尽。这种消失还不是致命的，致命的是低成本下的经济模式。这种遗留下来的红利人口结构带来的劳动密集经济发展模式是没有竞争力的。美国很清楚。制造升级是不会让你一帆风顺的。从劳动力自身升级动力考虑，不是生存被迫升级很难主动创新提升。我们国家的劳动力地位很低，虽然我一直很困惑建国之初我们是工农联盟的社会主义国家，以工人为主体，怎么就混到了现在这个地步。美国的工会力量是非常强大的，经常可以为工人讨薪，这在我们国家是不可想象的。随着消费主义经济的逐步上升，劳动力不得不被迫响应国策，掏更多的腰包去消费。那么他们的收入从哪里来。一个是劳动收入，一个是财产收入。\n\n劳动收入从目前来看就是工资收入，有的工作好可能还有其余兼职收入，被亲切的称为斜杠青年。以年薪50万的设计架构师为例，每月还掉房贷2.4万，扣掉税1万，到手里也就6000。除去生活开支基本没有剩下的了，也被称为新无产阶级。从这样的劳动产出比来看，谈创新基本没有可行性，谈投机大家会比较开心。\n\n财产性收入大部分都是从理财渠道来的，或者是高风险的股市，币市；或者是平风险的银行储蓄；或者是低风险的余额宝。这样的理财对金融发展是有利的，但是偏偏我们国家人多，于是各种粉丝经济盛行。劳动力的收入再次回流，甚至倒贴。而粉丝经济带来的后果就是傻子养活了另一批废物，没有创新，有的只是劳动力的变相压榨。另一方面的土地国有，限制了土地资本流转，也要了大部分劳动者的命。那些靠着粉丝和房市的人收割了别人，出了国门也只是更大的一棵。命运不会饶过谁。\n\n作为一个普通劳动者，我能做的就是提高自身的能力，多读书，多和商业前辈聊天，远离劳动密集型产业。研究新产业形势，研究表面经济现象下的底层规律，远离浮躁投资。钻研代码，在未来的机器世界中有所用，有所回报。",
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      "body": "### 比特币走势\n![](https://i.loli.net/2018/05/31/5b0fd138b55eb.png)\n比特币从5月初的9600美元硬生生跌到现在的7520美元，很多人坚信的跌不破8000美元的观点也随着它价格的一泻千里而再也没有了声音。那么现在是不是入局比特币赚取一波收益的时候呢？\n### 赚钱逻辑\n- 勇气\n所有的预言家毫不客气的说都是在说没有用的话，就像经济学家说的一样，两者的唯一区别是后者准确专业。与其听专家的意见不如深刻的洞悉你所要投的加密货币的挖矿成本，价格在成本23%以上就很难继续跌下去，或者说那些付出劳动的就不会让其真正的跌下去，其必然在真实价值上下波动。所以调查一下成本市场，然后怀揣勇气进场，赌徒心态不要，但是愿赌服输的精神长存。\n- 闲钱\n作为个人投资着，你很难时刻紧跟那些大资金的走向，稍不留意就会血本无归。在众人持续亏损的时候你在保值或者说你所亏甚少，这就是另一个方向的盈利。闲置资金拿出来投资，目前整个币市还是一种传销者的主导，你并不知道会突然买到哪一个组织并不存在的商品。所以闲钱投资是最有效的风控手段。这些没了，还可以赚回来嘛。\n- 人性\n这个世界每一种财富的快速而巨大的积累都离不开人性这个利器。世界上成功的商品都是利用了人性，无论是国外的苹果还是中国的微信，无不如此。尤其是成长阶段，更是人性带来了巨大的流量增长和营业增收。所以在投资加密货币的时候，清楚你的对手在干什么，和你一样的人在干什么，如果你愿意花一些时间的话，就会知道，该不该买，也会知道会不会赚钱。\n#### 在嘈杂的信息流涌动的币市，常常问问自己的心，看有没有答案，如果没有，就从交易所、白皮书，个人投资者出发，去寻找属于自己的答案。",
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