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      "author": "hivebuzz",
      "body": "Congratulations @steemvo! You received a personal badge!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://images.hive.blog/70x70/http://hivebuzz.me/badges/birthday-1.png</td><td>Happy Hive Birthday! You are on the Hive blockchain for 1 year!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your board](https://hivebuzz.me/@steemvo) and compare to others on the [Ranking](https://hivebuzz.me/ranking)_</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @hivebuzz:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://peakd.com/revolution/@hivebuzz/revolution-revolution\"><img src=\"https://images.hive.blog/64x128/https://i.imgur.com/kvCt22V.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://peakd.com/revolution/@hivebuzz/revolution-revolution\">Revolution! Revolution!</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://peakd.com/hivebuzz/@hivebuzz/hivebuzz-hive-gamification-experience\"><img src=\"https://images.hive.blog/64x128/https://i.imgur.com/3borgex.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://peakd.com/hivebuzz/@hivebuzz/hivebuzz-hive-gamification-experience\">HiveBuzz - Hive Gamification Experience</a></td></tr></table>\n\n###### [Vote for us as a witness](https://hivesigner.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more badge and upvotes from us with more power!",
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      "body": "With this post we will examine several stock markets together.\n\nAs is known, from around mid-February to mid-March the price lists were hit by a violent wave of sales which led to the following percentage drops (calculated from Maximum to Minimum):\n\nFTSE MIB = -44.45%\nDAX = -40.16%\nEUROSTOXX = -40.45%\nS&P 500 = -35.41%\nFrom a first analysis of the numbers, a greater weakness of our index and a greater relative strength of the American stock exchange emerge, even though the latter started from a huge overvaluation.\n\nIn any case, all the lists have been overwhelmed by sales.\n\nSince mid-March, after reaching significant areas of support (and in some cases even overstretched), a rebound has started.\n\nRebound justified for several reasons:\n\na temporary recovery after a similar wave of sales is almost physiological;\nhope in interventions by the various institutions;\nwillingness of the funds to beautify the quarterly reports;\nrebalancing of benchmark funds: for example, any balanced 50% equity and 50% bond fund found itself a significantly lower equity component and had to raise it to comply with the mandate.\nAlthough this percentage rebound has been significant, at the moment only the American list has managed to reach (temporarily) the Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% of the entire descent.\n\nHere are the maximums recorded so far thanks to the rebounds and, in brackets, the respective Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2%:\n\nFTSE MIB = 17.830 (18.481)\nDAX = 10.137 (10.371)\nEUROSTOXX = 2,847 (2,900)\nS&P 500 = 2,641 (2,650)\nIn the meantime, all the price lists have fallen after reaching these prices.\n\nIt is difficult to establish from now on whether or not the rebound has already run out: the only aspect I would like to reiterate is that the underlying trend is bearish.\n\nIn this regard, I find it interesting to highlight the intersections of death that have appeared in all the price lists\n\nFTSE MIB\n\n![1.jpg](https://images.hive.blog/DQmUwmk7usHVdky2EUPt164AsJFLzhAx4a85gNSnU7T4sgt/1.jpg)\n\n\nDAX\n\n![2.jpg](https://images.hive.blog/DQmXEmb3vwZ2LUNFt7mLEkkrwoFN337Njwh4ukyVrJKoKwA/2.jpg)\n\n\n\nEUROSTOXX 50\n\n![3.jpg](https://images.hive.blog/DQmckeNGvRJGBYiSZ1kyuz69Lum48pE3ZbvTqiVkUk3DzFr/3.jpg)\n\n\nS&P 500\n\n![4.jpg](https://images.hive.blog/DQmUMJz13Rrq23GBfCM6cydRAXW43vHYPNs2vVFZi4HPci1/4.jpg)\n\n\nThe crossing of death signals as probable:\n\nfalling = acceleration of the same;\nbouncing = a new bearish leg.\nIn essence, the hypothesis of new lows once the rebound in progress is concluded (if not already exhausted) remains probable (albeit not certain).",
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      "body": "Eyes on NFP in the USA after dramatic unemployment data. Possible downward revision of PMI services in the UK.\n\nLast week, 6.6 million people filed for US unemployment benefits; the closure of the activities caused by the coronavirus has in fact forced millions of Americans to request subsidies. The figure is double that of the requests from the previous week and the forecasts for this week.\n\nAs expected, the US dollar gained after the most marked and unprecedented jump in US unemployment claims; Dow and S & P500 closed a volatile session up 2%. The Nasdaq gained 1.72%.\n\nIn New York, energy stocks (+ 9%) led the hikes, while oil surged 35% after Donald Trump's tweet, which said he expected a cut in Russian and Saudi production, which could reach 15 million barrels, to curb the collapse of oil. In the tweet it does not specify whether it is a daily reduction or spread over time. Given the significant figure, we would not be surprised to see disappointed investors in the event of a more limited intervention, if there really should be one planned.\n\nThe positive news is that Saudi Arabia has scheduled an emergency meeting of the OPEC + group with Russia. Even if the Saudi market share is growing, the reduction of the overall market will certainly encourage the cheapest world producer to conclude an agreement for a cut in production, so as to raise global oil prices, and therefore also revenues. After seeing the dramatic consequences of last month's veto, Russia is also interested in reaching an agreement on a cut. The intervention should amount to at least 5 million barrels per day to compensate for the collapse in demand due to the blockade of transport and the planes left on the ground worldwide.\n\nFrom a market perspective, WTI crude oil stumbled on solid offers at $ 28 a barrel, stabilizing at around $ 25 after yesterday's overdraft close. The expected deal of the OPEC + group could provide support close to $ 22. Investors are lurking to ride the next bullish wave. Therefore any positive news or speculation will be enough to trigger another upward movement, although it will be difficult to overcome the offers in the $ 28/30 area, at least until the world rages on the coronavirus and the closures that derive from it.\n\nAsian stock exchanges did not pay attention to Trump's tweet. In Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Sydney, shares traded in negative territory, with the three largest US stocks falling. Caixin's PMI services confirmed a slowdown in the contraction of Chinese activities, but the figure also revealed that life has not yet returned to normal in China, with the exception of manufacturing.\n\nExchanges on FTSE futures (-0.67%) suggest a weak start for Friday's session. Energy stocks are likely to reverse some of Thursday's hikes in the wake of the 5% retracement in oil prices.\n\nIn the meantime, gold is moving on its own. Rather detached from what's going on in other asset classes, the precious metal swings up and down. Weak economic data could explain yesterday's hike to $ 1610, but the surge in risky assets once again shows that the gold market is moving with completely different dynamics.\n\nOn currency markets, the US dollar defines the general direction for all. The greenback remains strong because risk aversion reigns.\n\nLooking at the devastating numbers on unemployment claims, much worse figures are possible. As we said in our previous reports, even in the case of negative data, the US dollar should remain in the favor of investors, who have no other refuge in which to find shelter. We could therefore see a reversal of the relationship between data and dollar bias. Better data would be more effective in weakening the USD before the weekly markets close.\n\nEUR / USD is heading towards 1.08 in the wake of the strengthening of the USD. The final PMI figures for this morning should not hold any surprises for the euro, and confirm the sharpest downturn ever seen before. Later, however, the NFP figure may shake the EUR / USD. Disappointment could increase flows to the USD safe haven asset and drop the pair below the 1.08 level. Higher than expected data, however, could encourage a recovery towards the resistance at 1.10.\n\nAcross the Channel, the cable reels just below the 1.24 level. In the UK, the PMI services figure could be revised down, to 34.7 points from 35.7 in the previous survey, considering that the announcement on the British lockdown came soon after the publication of the latest PMI figures. Since services make up up to 80% of the British economy, the inevitable weakness of the data related to this sector could weigh on the pound.",
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      "body": "As the coronavirus spreads to various areas of the planet, central banks and governments of individual countries develop measures to deal with a major global recession for the first two quarters of the year.\n\nThe focus is now on the Eurogroup meeting scheduled for next Tuesday, where will try to find a \"compromise solution\" in order to get out of this serious economic situation as soon as possible.\n\nThe correction in progress is finding in FtseMib area 16,000 a valid support, we expect at this point a closure above 16,900 for a first short-term bullish signal with the objective of the recent maximum rebound in area 17,900; only above this level will we be able to speak of a medium-term reversal, and at that point we could really think that the worst has passed and that a recovery towards the subsequent resistance at 19.150 and area 19.800 / 20.000 is possible by the month of June.\n\nNegativity instead in the event of a new fall below 16,000 FtseMib; the chances of a new bearish leg with a target currently limited to 14,000 FtseMib points would be high.\n\nFrom an operational point of view, it is advisable to keep the invested at 50/60%, and with 20/30% of liquidity, operate at this point only when the index has exceeded 16,900; purchases near the support of 16,000 are always possible, but presupposes a decidedly higher risk.",
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      "body": "Let's do a Cyclical Analysis on the S & P500 Index (actually the future miniS & P500) to understand the potential developments for the next few days.\n\nWe see the trend of the miniS & P500 starting from the minimum of March 23, with data at 15 minutes updated at 12:00 today 3 April:\n\n\n![1.jpg](https://images.hive.blog/DQmXD953wBMGwhe1rKpyLUStBGMfkVHdFn8KAfqZ63mMGnB/1.jpg)\n\nThe graph was created with the Cycles Navigator software I created.\n\n\nThe green dot line represents future prices on the miniS & P500. The White line represents the potential cyclical trend (valid above all for times and trends and not for forces - or prices). The Yellow line at the bottom is an indicator of Cyclical Strength (I use about 6-7 different ones).\n\nThis graph represents the Monthly Cycle (average duration of approximately 1 calendar month) - this cycle started on the lows of March 23 morning and had a good push up to the maximum of March 27 (see green arrow). We know that this recovery phase after the previous collapse is linked to heavy Fed interventions in support of the US economy. For 6 days, the market has been in a congestion phase that could last until about April 10th (see yellow ellipse above). The cycle force indicator at the bottom of the figure confirms this stall phase. Then we may have a phase of gradual weakness, of which it is difficult to estimate the extent currently, to close the cycle by April 23rd. Based on the higher cyclical structures, I do not expect a sharp drop, but only a correction with respect to the rise since 23 March.\n\nHowever, it must be said that the implied volatility (i.e. the Vix index) remains high, that is, the fear of new falls remains high. This makes any technical tool based on statistical estimates less reliable.\n\nJust to give some price reference (which I call \"critical levels\" and they are not true target prices) a phase of slight strength could bring back towards 2550-2600 and also test the area of ​​recent highs around 2635. If there was greater strength could even go up to 2700, a level that for now I set as a limit.\n\nOn the opposite side, a slight correction could lead to 2450-2400. Values ​​lower than towards 2350 would tell us that this cycle has entered its weak phase and it could reach 2300 to 2250, which for now I set as a limit level.\n\nI remember that although there are cyclical structures within the financial markets these are not and cannot be exactly regular. Therefore the analysis carried out (like all technical analysis) can only be probabilistic, in compliance with a series of rules that the Cyclical Analysis provides.\n\nNOTE - This makes any technical tool based on statistical estimates less reliable. \n\n'The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only.  It is not intended to be investment advice.  Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.'",
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