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      "body": "The Fed is very much trapped.  Flooring interest rates and holding them there as long as they have is a desperate move by the Fed.  It knows what happens to banks, insurance companies, pensions, and anyone who relies on fixed income when interest rates are kept low for a long period of time.\n\nMost people assume that lowering interest rates is good for financial companies, but that is a misunderstanding.  Or rather, it is a matter of time scale.   In the shortest of terms, lowering interest rates is great for financial companies:  it immediately and directly raises the price of many financial instruments, such as bonds, which become comparatively more attractive than new issues at the lower interest rate.  When the primary issue was solvency of overlevered banks, low interest rates were very welcome, and kind of saved the day for the banks by raising the price and putting a persistent bid underneath their most precarious assets.\n\nBut even if they were a godsend to banks in 2009, when they were teetering on the brink of insolvency, low interest rates are not good for financial companies in the long term and even the medium term.   Their portfolio may have gotten a much needed jolt upward, but it's a one-time thing, and after that, the longer the interest rates are floored, the more it happens that their higher interest rate portfolio items age off and are replaced by loans and bonds at rock bottom interest rates that don't pay them enough to be worth the considerable risk.  In a chronically low interest rate environment, banks get weaker and weaker, pensions have very hard time making the 7-9% they need to remain solvent, insurance companies have to go out further on the risk curve in order to pay claims.  In short, everyone has a hard time making their nut.\n\nBasically, in 2007, the financial economy was put on life support.  the Fed cannot admit that much of the financial world will collapse immediately as soon as  interest rates materially rise, but that is in fact what will happen.  Once the interest rates rise, asset values (which depend on easy money financing) will fall pretty much across the board.  Funding will again be stressed for financial companies.  Homes will again plummet in value, bringing banks along for the ride.   And so on.  It will be 2008 all over again.\n\nThat this will happen eventually anyway is beside the point.  Given the choice between ushering in an immediate financial collapse as a direct result of its actions, or delaying it as long as it possibly can, the Fed has chosen the natural move:  delay.  A collapse later is preferable to a collapse now.  Especially since, who knows how long it can keep later from being now.  I don't know about you, but i'm a little surprised how long it has been able to so far.  I would have given pretty long odds in 2008 against the Fed's ability to keep an extremely overpriced and overleveraged market from collapsing.  But i was wrong.  I still think it will fail eventually, but who knows when that will be?\n\nIn the meantime, they will continue to sound oh so serious about a material raise of interest rates.  They might even manage to raise rates a trivial amount.  But in general, they will always have good reasons not to raise materially.  Their best path is in always looking like they might in the near future.",
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      "author": "aok",
      "permlink": "re-mcshotcaller-should-i-be-buying-lithium-stock-20160804t201103424z",
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      "body": "I'm also in Pure Energy, and interested in Lithium, and i do like it as a prospect and lithium as a major commodity of the future.  Pure Energy is about to publish its feasibility study for their key project in Nevada, which I will be very interested in.  The big factor with Pure Energy is whether their new extraction process (actually it's licenced from Tenova Bateman) is economical at a large scale.  I sort of think it will be -- a lot of top junior lithium minors are considering it.  Theoretically, it has huge advantages over the usual way that brine lithium is processed, which is in big evaporation ponds that are expensive, environmentally pretty terrible, and take a year or two to complete.   The Tenova Bateman process is supposedly better in every way, with a processing time of eight hours instead of a year and a half, and it boasts a recovery rate of about 99.9% instead of the ~50% - 60% recovery rate of evaporation ponds.  And it's environmental footprint is tiny -- brine is pumped out of a well, the salts are extracted, and the same water is dumped down the same hole eight hours later.\n\nI do think Lithium is a very good bet.  Pure Energy is a fine choice, especially if you want to bet on a transformative new process.  Strictly speaking, though, i think there are other lithium juniors that are in a better position to make a mint from the high price of lithium.  Right now, lithium prices are through the roof, and probably going to continue to climb, as demand grows for electric vehicles, and as battery storage becomes more common.   If even 1% of the fleet of vehicles worldwide are transitioned to battery electric vehicles, the global supply of lithium will be strained.  That is true, I believe, even with a pretty large amount of new mining capacity coming online in the next half decade in response to the meteoric rise in lithium prices of the last few years.\n\nThe safest pick, in my opinion, to benefit from lithium, is one that is already producing in good amounts.  Prices are currently great, but who knows for sure what they will be in a few years when the current crop of juniors bring a lot of new product to market at the same time.  The problem is, most of the world's current supply of lithium comes from three mining conglomerates, which are generally diversified enough that even though lithium has been a growing part of their profits,  it is ultimately a small part.  So the market leaders like SQM and Albemarle are not very focused on lithium.\n\nA good pure play on lithium that is currently producing, though, is Orocobre.  Orocobre has recently started production from their flagship brine property in  Chile, and has recently announced that their production schedule is on target.  Their stock OROCF still looks pretty cheap to me given that they are solidly producing.",
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