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      "body": "Congratulations @blacque! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@blacque/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@blacque) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=blacque)_</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/use-your-witness-votes-and-get-the-community-badge\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTugCUsoXX762vg1CuHRrpnPbfnjPogp8iCGv7F2kSVuj/image.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/use-your-witness-votes-and-get-the-community-badge\">Use your witness votes and get the Community Badge</a></td></tr></table>\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "memo": "Dear @blacque. I hope you don't mind this little memo. Every week I'm trying to help and promote content published by few selected authors and today I would like to share with you post published by my friend @honarparvar: \"WARNING: This might not be a trend!\". I'm curious if you believe in TA and what's your opinion on using indicators while trading crypto. Share your opinion, I read all valuable comments. Piotr // LINK: https://steemit.com/trading/@honarparvar/warning-this-might-not-be-a-trend",
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      "body": "Congratulations @blacque! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n<table><tr><td><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/60x70/http://steemitboard.com/@blacque/posts.png?201906122300\"></td><td>You published more than 10 posts. Your next target is to reach 20 posts.</td></tr>\n</table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@blacque) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=blacque)_</sub>\n<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>\n\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "author": "blacque",
      "body": "@@ -8672,19 +8672,28 @@\n %0A%0A%0A*list\n- of\n+ed below: my\n  recent \n@@ -12521,16 +12521,17 @@\n eases:%0A#\n+0\n 9  https\n@@ -12616,16 +12616,17 @@\n hts-9%0A%0A#\n+0\n 8  https\n@@ -12715,16 +12715,17 @@\n hts-8%0A%0A#\n+0\n 7  https\n@@ -12814,16 +12814,17 @@\n hts-7%0A%0A#\n+0\n 6  https\n@@ -12913,16 +12913,17 @@\n hts-6%0A%0A#\n+0\n 5  https\n@@ -13012,16 +13012,17 @@\n hts-5%0A%0A#\n+0\n 4  https\n",
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      "body": "**random cryptocurrency / cryptoeconomics thoughts #10**\n\n*The below is unstructured, thinking out loud, a collection of independent thought bubbles written as a combined slab. There is not a sequential flow, paragraphs/ideas are random and undisciplined. No effort is made to stage them for easier reading/ingestion. It is not factored for concision. The goal is to approach the synthesis / elaboration of fresh ideas and compounded concepts that ideally lead to further expansion of the thinking around blockchain.*\n\n\n**Shark skin**\n\nA blockchain is only as strong as its strongest-to-date hack. A blockchain should proudly and prominently display its history record of its strong hack attempts as a proof of its robustness/Lindy effect. A visual scar library, varied and mixed, proof of having toured (and survived) many storied hacking neighbourhoods.\n\nIf the smartest/most powerful/most motivated hackers in the world haven’t tried to hack your chain and thus left scars on your dermis, then you don’t know how secure your chain really is. A much-hacked-on chain is stronger (worthy of more praise/more fit to survive) than a less-hacked chain.\n\nA blockchain should have a visible surface, publicly inspectable, as if it were the skin/hide of a fifty year old great white shark: it should be the summed total of the lingering scar tissue from the greatest attacks (hacking attempts) it survived. A blockchain’s skin should be this accumulating record of scars, an externally visible proof of the cumulative attacks it has endured.\n\nIf you are not allowed a view of these massed scars, then you should probably not trust that chain yet.\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbH4eGTcxpD6KUaZPE6acmC4crfbca5fx8uov1jL72Req/image.png)\n\n*It is not the most intellectual of the species that survives; it is not the strongest that survives; but the species that survives is the one that is able to adapt to and to adjust best to the changing environment in which it finds itself. -Charles Darwin in his “Origin of Species.”*\n\nDarwin perhaps might have gone one step further to advise us that your body/genome is your proof-record of a billion-year process. Your body is your longest-chain-yet proof-ledger that you were the fittest-to-survive-to-date and the precise manner (your genome’s encoded history of changes/improvements/learnings) in which it was accomplished. Similarly, a blockchain’s Github codebase is thus the collected ‘genomic residual’ of what precise pattern of coded logic was needed to survive all the massed-hacking-attempts-to-date visited upon that codebase to-date.\n\n\n\n**The mind alien**\n\n*“Bitcoin even copies itself onto as many computers as it can, by incentivizing individual people to run full nodes and mine new blocks.”*\n-Gigi from https://medium.com/@dergigi/philosophical-teachings-of-bitcoin-97f4b96f455f\n\n*“Bitcoin is the first example of a new form of life. It lives and breathes on the internet. It lives because it can pay people to keep it alive. […] It can’t be changed. It can’t be argued with. It can’t be tampered with. It can’t be corrupted. It can’t be stopped. […] If nuclear war destroyed half of our planet, it would continue to live, uncorrupted. ”*\n— Ralph Merkle\n\nCrypto is the mind virus. Whilst the obvious approach is to define cryptocurrencies and cryptoeconomics in terms of them being economic, computing and/or social constructs, perhaps framing the epistemology of crypto in virus (life bearing organism) or ‘alien being’ terms needs to be considered.\n\nCrypto is a mind hack: it is a construct that invades (infects) your pre-existing (fiat) mental reality then proceeds to probe it for further entrance/fault lines, thus it proceeds from a small initial infection, through to a full overtaking exploit, then to a complete replacement/refactoring so as to wipe to original host/state from existence and completely subsume it into a new (alien, crypto-only) being.\n\nSuch a case means attempting to derive the axioms and heuristics/rules of cryptocurrencies and cryptoeconomics in purely ‘classical’ economic terms risks missing a vital explanatory framework: how viruses infect-then-overtake-then-rewire their hosts. Explaining and measuring cryptocoinz against old-world supposed-equivalents is a category error. You can’t explain motor cars in terms of hay consumed, height in hands or hurdles jumped.\n\nCrypto is a mind alien, it has new rules, new language, new origin myths, new logic; it is driven by new dynamics not borrowed/reinterpreted from the equities/bonds/forex markets. Understanding/learning/addressing/using crypto is learning to speak alien-talk to a creature from a spaceship landed on your old-world front lawn that is so weird it completely mind-fucks your old ideas. And then it eats you whole and you subsume into its reality.\n\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGyvlt_b3is\n*Alien Mind Controlled Snails. A type of parasitic flatworm, called the green banded broodsac, is capable of invading a snail’s body and controlling its behaviour. This worm turns a snail’s eyes into caterpillars and takes control.*\n\n\n**Satoshi’s Implication**\n\nIt is commonly stated that Satoshi gave us the first useable, relevant, scalable solution to the so-called Byzantine General’s Problem. https://www.cryptonomy.com/knowledge/byzantine-general-problem\n\nIs it impolite to point out that Satoshi essentially forces us to adopt the implication that we humans are inherently Byzantine? Behavioural economists might further point out (using fMRI scans) that human brains go chemically funny even further than usual when money (or food or sex) are involved. These ‘goods’ hack our neurology and render us non-trustable around such temptations.\n\nSatoshi issued 50 Bitcoins per block initially to have the miners perform trillions of hashes per second as the way to defeat/minimise Byzantine corruption. Satoshi knew he had to admit to and fight this dragon, hard.\n\nWhen rewards (incentives) are involved, the Byzantine General’s Problem arises and you should no longer trust the messengers, further, you should assume they will corrupt the messages for their own gain. Satoshi was 100% certain of it.\n\nThe Byzantine General’s Problem essentially thus implies that a) humans are increasingly vulnerable to lying as the rewards (incentives) for doing so scale up and b) humans are almost predictably certain to be Byzantine when money, food or sex are involved.\n\nCryptocurrency is thus essentially a machine specifically designed (‘mechanism design’) to defeat the human brain’s inherent inability to withstand its own weakness at the Byzantine General’s Problem. This could also be restated as saying that human capacity for enlightened self-interest (altruism) will always be overpowered by Byzantine ‘cheating’. Or, at least, you must always assume a socially-common comms channel will be infested with Byzantine (unreliable) witnesses.\n\nCryptocurrency is thus the forever-study of how to design an increasingly useful tool that inherently targets the defeat (or defanging) of the human brain’s weakness in Byzantine General’s Problem contexts.\n\nThe deep implication (Satoshi’s Implication) is that the Byzantine General’s Problem of cheating/unreliability arises without fail anytime there exists a reward/payoff. Security wonks will say: “threat follows value”. Crypto folk have to accept Satoshi’s Implication that Byzantine attacks attend (arise, infest, soon appear, will game) any system that has an optimal (Nash, Pareto, cooperative game theory, etc.) solution. If, by being Byzantine, the universe can figure out a way to diminish the otherwise-honest natural effort (amount of work, energy) needed to gain a prize (arrive at a solution, solve for an answer), then the universe will do so as to ‘optimise for laziness’. This is impersonal: the universe doesn’t mean to hurt us by this Byzantine leaning, but why spend Joules of energy altruistically when a shorter path can be found? We might state this as: Byzantine actors reliably arise to target any sign of altruism.\n\nSatoshi thus damns us forever to making cryptocurrency the pursuit of a design to best limit/defeat the Byzantine General’s Problem version of cheating/unreliability. Nakamoto Consensus essentially states: “Assume everything (every proposed block) that everyone (every node) around you tells you is corrupt, until you verify it by yourself, rigorously.” Satoshi recasts the world as being irrevocably Byzantine at every step: “all your p2p friends are liars in everything they will ever tell you and will do that so as to steal all your money/food/sexual partners for the least amount of cost to them for the effort involved to do so”.\n\n\n*list of recent Tweets/peepeth’s:  see https://peepeth.com/blacque*\n\ndemocracy/representative democracy: small fraction of voter base (“swinging voters”) + plus rigged bias of electoral college (1 person != 1 vote) means summed choices of very small fraction of the total sample space get asymmetrical power to decide the outcome.\nGive me a full verifying, full validating blockchain/DAO, that slashes any small number of bad actors, any day.\n\n\nBitfinex, Binance, Huobi, Kraken, et al: not so much a crypto exchange, as a fractional reserve custodian of private keys\nLong live DEXs, http://localethereum.com , Bisq, IDEX, …\n\n\nlife coaches, psychologists, economists will tell you: you are the sum (or residual) of the choices you made in your life to-date.\ncrypto teaches you: you will be the sum of the outcomes of the staking incentives/game theory payoff matrices you chose to respond to\n\n\na kind of crypto-Moore’s Law — “every year or two, adoption quadruples as scaling improvements double the chain performance” or some such\n\n\nknowing about crypto yet continuing to use fiat, earn salary in fiat, buy groceries in fiat, is same as requesting Big Macs for lunch as your recuperate in your hospital bed after a heart attack\n\n\nbanks issue money: Fed Reserve USD, Euros, Yen\nblockchains issue coins: BTC, ETH\ncompanies issue DAOs: defi, DEX, Aragon/BitNation, EOS\ncommentariat issue definitions: NVT, TCR’s, STO’s, Cryptocapital vs. Cryptocommodities, token velocity thesis, MV=PQ, …\n… each successive stakeholder grouping generates its own new (next-level) language model.\nMoney/crypto is a socially-driven never-ending conversation: expect the definitions to evolve over time as thinking around it evolves.\n\n\nthe internet was an O/S for the global info-driven datasphere\nthe blockchain is an O/S for trust minimisation\nthe selfDAO is an O/S for your brain’s mental self-sovereign future-state\n\n\n19xx: you are the consumer > Madison Ave, malls, the burbs…\n20xx: you are the product > Facebook, Google, Cambridge Analytica…\n201x: you are your own bank > bitcoin, blockchain, DLT, DAG…\n202x: you are your own token > DAO, DAC, IEO, DID, BitNation…\n202x: you are your own nation, your own government, your own sovereign…\nyou own it. you’re on your own. you are your private key.\n\n\nHard money is information — fiat money is datasmog\nFair markets are balanced conversations — Wall St is smack talk\nDEXs are social media threads — CEXs are Facebook\n\n\nI lose your money: capitalism alt. moral hazard\nYou lose my money: socialism alt. GFC, QE, bail in, crony capitalism, NWO, IMF, The Fed\nWe all lose all our own money: crypto daytrading\n\n\n19xx: IPO\n2017: ICO\n2018: STO\n2019: IEO\n2020: uh-oh\n\n\nSatoshi: “Here, have my codebase. All 7.6 billion of you should run one. Like me, use a pseudonym — don’t make it easy for the po-po.”\nCrypto-noobies: “No, I’m lazy, I’ll trust someone else to do it on my behalf. Facebook/Google are my trusty friends. What, me worry?”\n\n\nIf you can name > 33% of who your miners/validators/block producers are, then sorry, you have missed the point of blockchain, and also, some police force, justice dept and/or regulator will soon knock on those doors. Congratulations on outing yourselves.\n\n\ncar replaced horse…..\nemail replaced Post Office….\nAmazon replaced (all retailers) -\nas a crypto OG, you are not a blockchainer: rather, you are ‘banks 2.0’. 10, 20 yrs from now, there is no employee called ‘a banker’, there are only stakers and HODLers a.k.a. banker 2.0\n\n\nUS currency: “In God, We Trust”\ncrypto OG’s: “In crypto, we verify”\n\n\n*Disclaimers: YMMV. This is not investment advice. I’m ego-driven, clueless and biased, so do your own thinking. I’m not qualified, I have no special privileged position to drive my insight, I’m a nobody, is what you should assume about me and what I say here.*\n\n\nprevious releases:\n#9  https://steemit.com/blockchain/@blacque/random-cryptocurrency-cryptoeconomics-thoughts-9\n\n#8  https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@blacque/random-cryptocurrency-cryptoeconomics-thoughts-8\n\n#7  https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@blacque/random-cryptocurrency-cryptoeconomics-thoughts-7\n\n#6  https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@blacque/random-cryptocurrency-cryptoeconomics-thoughts-6\n\n#5  https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@blacque/random-cryptocurrency-cryptoeconomics-thoughts-5\n\n#4  https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@blacque/random-cryptocurrency-cryptoeconomics-thoughts-4\n\n#03  https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@blacque/random-cryptocurrency-cryptoeconomics-thoughts-3\n\n#02  https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@blacque/random-cryptocurrency-thoughts-2-cryptoeconomics\n\n#01  https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@blacque/random-cryptocurrency-thoughts",
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      "body": "@@ -1,12 +1,14 @@\n+**\n random crypt\n@@ -46,16 +46,18 @@\n ughts #9\n+**\n %0A%0A*The b\n",
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      "body": "@@ -46,16 +46,17 @@\n hts #9%0A%0A\n+*\n The belo\n@@ -517,16 +517,17 @@\n ckchain.\n+*\n %0A%0ABlockc\n@@ -10348,16 +10348,17 @@\n esses.%0A%0A\n+*\n Disclaim\n@@ -10609,8 +10609,9 @@\n ay here.\n+*\n",
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      "body": "random cryptocurrency / cryptoeconomics thoughts #9\n\nThe below is unstructured, thinking out loud, a collection of thought bubbles written as a raw slab and is not factored for concision/to make it easy to read. There is not a sequential flow, paragraphs/ideas are random and undisciplined. No effort is made to stage them for easier reading/ingestion. The goal is to approach the synthesis / elaboration of fresh ideas and compounded concepts that ideally lead to further expanding the possible thinking around blockchain.\n\nBlockchain Heresy:\n\nThe advance of intelligence is arguably measured as being the accumulating ledger/record of progress in a social grouping’s tolerance (and/or embrace) for its heretics, critics and infidels.\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSyCazd4oJPbBZLtaqD3Z6ZzwrrjGBnexPpbvCPKRqgBF/image.png)\n“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”\nF. Scott Fitzgerald   http://quoteparrot.com/quotes/f-scott-fitzgerald/127607-the-test-of-a\n\nBlockchain natively entertains oxymorons such as ‘private blockchain’ and ‘stable coin’ and ‘on chain governance’ and ‘crypto investor’. [An example also of ‘cognitive dissonance’?] It seems to be endemic to blockchain that it throws up these face-off confrontations, where you have to be able to accommodate two logically-opposing notions yet somehow still find a way forward whilst pandering to both opposed sides. The cognitive load this requires may exceed the human mind’s native capacity (‘processing fluency’).\n\nIt may prove the case that the entire future viability of blockchain depends on our ability to tolerate this kind of ‘cognitive dissonance’, it seems native to the blockchain space. Heresy (embrace your heretics) may be an inherent requirement for progress and viability of blockchain (cryptopolitics/crypto-canon). It may be a requirement for all humans to live in sustained mode of ‘cognitive dissonance’ in order for blockchain (as a whole) to be live (progressing) and functioning. For example, we might always have to maintain both Bitcoin and Ethereum as equal-but-different primary replacements for the fiat US Dollar hegemony.\n\nHuman ingrouping (families, nations, unions) is normally a mechanism that does not easily tolerate heresy. Arguably, ingroups typically/usually function and arise so as to be a perimeter guard against heresy (strangers who threaten your gene/meme pool). Yet it may be the case that blockchain is exclusively none other than the summed total of its heresies — blockchain may always be a morass of conflicting ideas, waring sides, oxymorons, logical paradoxes (Byzantine General’s Problem — you can’t trust any of those in proximity): blockchain may always be composed of opposed forces that perpetually disagree or battle. 21st century society as a whole might have to learn that unless there are attendant heresies, then things aren’t right with our blockchain(s). This is not a normal way that most human minds function as [typically harmony-seeking] social members (given that ingroups repel their heretics) and will thus be a forever impost load on our cognitive capacity due to this.\n\nIt is not a lost irony that whilst the case may be that blockchain has always to be able to embrace heresy at the political/social/governance level, blockchains at a code/operational level eschew heresy: consensus mechanisms inherently are about forming consensus of a shared common ‘single’ truth record/ledger, thus explicitly not allowing parallel reality of the canonical chain = no ‘heretical’ blocks/chains. This of course sets up its own dissonance loading instance: heresy in our minds whilst there is finality in our chains.\n\nSmarter minds in blockchain act to guard the notion that blockchain is not so much trustless as it is about trust minimisation. This is a fundamentally important notion about blockchain to grasp. By analogy, we might say that humans can not often identify truth, things that are absolutely true, but that we can/should instead hope for ‘high degree of truthiness’: things about which we can have high confidence, which hold in most cases, which have survived lots of test cases (Lindy), but which might fall down in certain edge/corner cases or which might be superseded one day by better theories/frameworks. Should you always trust that a canonical chain is always and forever true, immutable, fully trustworthy, fully true? Well, yes, a blockchain if a strong proof system, but…..\n\nSufficiently motivated governments and their NSA agency supercomputers are capable of amazing alternate realities. Should you instead rely on a canonical chain being a public ledger that reached highest consensus, was most true and most accepted by its diverse peer set? This is perhaps a reflection or outcome of human devices/works being always subject to the human capacity to ‘game the system’. Blockchains thus seek to be trust minimising systems rather than ‘absolute truths’ of unquestionable veracity. A blockchain’s ledger thus is the best recording system we have yet of a consensual agreement, but it is not an unassailable fortress; of course blockchains are the best answer we have ever yet arrived at, but perhaps they are not the last word and improvements might arise one day. As massive blockchain enthusiasts, we of course want to believe blockchain is the perfect system of record, the best record of truth we will ever have, but we need to be sober about the human capacity for cheating/gaming.\n\nThere is an oft-stated maxim that blockchain has yet “to find its killer app”, as if blockchain cannot possibly survive at all unless and until it finds some kind of all-conquering extra/supra use case that seven+ billion humans clamour to adopt in a gigantic rush. The implied sense is that the base, bottom chain/function is an insufficient entity on its own.\n\nThe risk here is for us all to succumb to the thought that we ought not invest any further into the existing blockchain movement unless and until some alien genius/white knight superbeing rides up and delivers us a brand new never-seen-before killer app that makes us all goggle with wonderment.\n\nThe cost of this waiting room mentality is lost opportunity cost. If we think current blockchain is insufficient, the risk is that for some time to come, whilst we hover in a cautious holding pattern, that we hold back and refuse to take risks, because we think a saviour will appear soon and deprecate our sunk time.\n\nThe killer app of blockchain is blockchain: no superior use case will ever emerge. Doubtless, new apps will arise one day that add much extra, fresh, unique value on top of base chains. Should we wait forlornly until then, idle ourselves and stay modest in our risk taking? Is the blockchain base case invalid until some future superbeing bequeaths us some godly heretofore-unseen killer app?\n\nMarkets (bonds, forex, options, etc.) are well-recognised economic constructs. The obvious intuition is that markets exist to allow/ensure the emergent property of optimal resource allocation occurs — markets magically ‘figure out’ where to allocate resources in the best (socially optimal) way, as indicated by the price a market is traded at.\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQrH9AWDdmTjiBJuiqmhHk4bVSTkNChLx8skZjmz3VS6J/image.png)\nhttps://twitter.com/IDrawCharts/status/1112864240354906112\n\nA crypto-influenced view may instead posit that (crypto-specific) markets exist as mechanisms that incent ‘hackers’ (i.e. traders) to exploit them/probe them (each coin project, e.g. BTC, ETH) so as to find their fault lines and thus criticise/collapse them. In this sense, crypto-market traders are explicitly incentivised to ‘hack away’ (i.e. make trades) as (perhaps unknowing) penetration testers (ethical hackers, white hats) of the underlying social rationale for a given crypto project’s existence.\n\nWhereas traders of ‘traditional’ equities -such as AAPL (Apple stock) — are incentivised (e.g. by buying APPL) to share in Apple’s future cash flows as a company that seeks to produce profits for shareholders, crypto-traders instead profit if they best unlock the global social value of the weakness or strength of the crypto meme itself. Crypto-traders in this sense ‘decide’ if a coin deserves to survive by buying it/HODLing or by selling out of it and buying an alternate (stronger, more fit to survive) project’s coin. Crypto-traders can ‘overload’ a coin if they wish to hasten its demise (the CryptoKitties overload event in late 2017 that threatened to crash the massed ethereum nodes/miners). Traders of crypto markets are in this sense incentivised to figure out which cryptocoin is strongest/best deserves to thrive (is hardest to hack/short into nothingness), more so than traditional traders are asked/paid to determine the underlying relevance and deservedness of their markets and the individual fitness-to-survive of the issuances involved. Traders of AAPL shares are not (in the large part) paid for their opinion of AAPL’s right to exist, whereas buying Ether is inherently a statement of belief in Ethereum’s future and codebase soundness.\n\nCryptoeconomics in this sense encourages its markets to work not for classical ‘price discovery’ reasons but more so for cryptoeconomical ‘attack surface discovery’. Crypto-markets incent traders to find the weakness in the crypto-marketplace or a given coin. Crypto-markets reward those traders (hackers) who best either a) identify then exploit that weakness or b) furnish the coinz’ soundness.\n\nJust as George Soros famously shorted the British £ Pound Sterling in the early 1990’s as his way or criticising the Bank Of England, so too do crypto-traders seek for exploits via the traded price/markets of cryptocoinz and the coinz’ inherent cryptoeconomics — if the coinz’ cryptoeconomics is weak or has fault lines, then crypto-traders are primarily rewarded for finding-then-exploiting them. This is why we have seen 51% attacks against coinz/projects such as Bitcoin Gold, Ethereum Classic. Blockchain wants you to find its weakness, crypto-traders and crypto-markets are a source of hackers for this effort. Traditional markets have regulators and police to protect them from hackers; crypto markets actively pay their participants to find their weaknesses.\n\nDisclaimers:. YMMV. This is not investment advice. I’m ego-driven, clueless and biased, so do your own thinking. I’m not qualified, I have no special privileged position to drive my insight, I’m a nobody, is what you should assume about me and what I say here.",
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      "body": "@@ -2361,11 +2361,12 @@\n vail\n-: I\n+%22 is\n  nex\n",
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      "body": "random cryptocurrency / cryptoeconomics thoughts #8\n\n*The below is ungroomed, thinking out loud, a collection of thought bubbles written as a messy tangle and has not been processed for concision/to make it easier to read.  Patience and indulgence is required.  There is not a sequential flow, paragraphs are ordered randomly.  No effort was made to format for easier reading/viewing.*\n\nIt now seems apparent - even to the SEC, CTFC, EU, World Bank, IMF et al – that crypto not only is here to stay, but further that:  a) it really is set to swallow everything and b) they can no longer hope they can kill it or let it die on its own accord.  Yay.  \nThe conversation (narrative making, twittersphere) and think-tanking now shifts to discussions of how (and thus no longer: if) to accommodate this new guest in the old homestead.  We crypto folk already know the barbarian has not only swamped the gates, the barbarian now has tossed out the old Emperor (even if the old Emperor doesn’t fully realise it yet….).  Yay again.  \nLike George W Bush Jnr, I’m flying onto the aircraft carrier deck in a combat suit/fighter jet and declaring victory on the carrier deck by unfurling a big banner;  easy peazy, yeah?\nJust like Amazon came along and, after about twenty years of effect, has essentially replaced, disintermediated, relegated, diminished or otherwise forever changed old-world retailers, the challenge now for we pro-crypto Rasputins is to correctly forecast the forwarding pathing:  it is not enough now to merely proclaim the new emperor and describe his verbs and nouns, we forecasters must now shift our narrative-making to describe/forecast the precise pathing that the forward curve (turn of events) will trace out hence.\nIt is easy enough to state that “everything will tokenise” or “the ICO will replace The Firm”.  This is equivalent to saying “online retail will replace the strip mall” – nice, correct, reliable, factful, but not detailed enough yet to bet hard coinz on in BitMex.  It’s great to tell me the S&P500 goes up ~8% per year on average.  1987 and 2008 show that pathing matters.  As Nassim Taleb points out:  don’t cross a river if it on average is two feet deep.\nCrypto-forecasters and pundits now will best be judged by the pathing they forecast in their missives and despatches.  Including me.  So declaring that “crypto will prevail: I next to useless now:  what matters next/now is how pundits tell you when, just how and in what precise ways.  Pathing matters.\n\n\nVitalik Non-giver of Ether:\n‏”Blockchains are NOT about cutting computational costs (at least relative to centralized servers). Blockchains are about incurring a sacrifice in the form of INCREASED computational costs to achieve a *decrease* in *social costs*.”\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbx19ckR3q6bNYTwuQvMzPmV2sBjU6fa9b7vgdTGFFzKC/image.png)\n\nOur beloved VB makes a great point:  crypto is about trading off one social thing for another – e.g. pay miners/stakepools to mine/stakehold coinz/reach consensus and receive social consensus (as BFT-enforced money) in return.  In other words, crypto is about you and me reaching a commonised (consensual) agreement about how we want to share our resources, by deciding how much of one we are willing to ‘offer up’ to the common pool so that we all generate a derived good that we can then share in the benefits of.  It may cost a Serenity network a bunch of bonded Ethers (sunk cost or locked cost) so as to generate a beacon+validator nest of chains, but in return we all get a scalable cryptocurrency/a decentralised/distributed ledger of ‘the truth’.\nThis kind of ‘offer up your personal goods so as to generate a shared/social good that is more than the sum of its parts’ requires a degree of thinking about altruism:  am I better off keeping my own Ethers to myself, or do I benefit more (immediately or eventually, directly or peripherally) by staking/bonding them to the beacon chain?  This is almost a textbook game theory Nash equilibria/payoff mechanism – what will each participant view as the optimal (Nash equilibrium) strategy?\nPerhaps this has always been the definition of society:  our willingness to put up with legal systems, governmental models/nationhood, military/police forces, in return for the benefits of collective residency in towns, cities, nations, unions, etc.\nA full-tilt blockchain future means each person now has to decide:  do I only/exclusively act selfishly, or do I value and recognise the need to be altruistic?  Blockchain, as it comes to predominate everything, may work to force this aspect of its engineroom higher, further and deeper into the forefront.  Blockchain may just be a lesson to each of us that the above question is a/the primary one.\n\n\nWanna be a doctor?  You probably need a ‘medical head’: a mindset/set of mental processes that has (in some sense, arguably) a native predisposition to favour known-beneficial medical thought patterns.  Same for lawyer, musician, etc.  To benefit from the crypto future, there are probably certain mental loops/processes/biases that best predispose you towards benefitting and being a crypto native.  The contra argument is that you don’t need a mechanic’s mindset in order to drive a car.  True, but to be a race car driver, the ‘native mindset’ argument perhaps reintroduces itself.\nSo, to what degree will it be proving true that to be a power user of cryptocurrencies, you need to already have a mind that is pre-wired to understand crypto tropes?  Contra: if you don’t have a mind that naturally groks the subtleties and nuances of CBC, BFT, DPOS, will this diminish your future chances in society?  Is all future society merely the reflection/aggregation of each person’s rating on the ‘blockchain grokking’ spectrum?\n\n\nSomewhere around 4 billion years ago, life came into existence on Earth, instantiating the idea of self-replication:  perhaps some freak combinational pattern of molecules self-configured in a certain way that we know recognise as being DNA/RNA, which just happens to be a pattern/template that has the characteristic of sufficient self-replication, and thus the ability to transcend time.  Perhaps chemicals and molecules back then were combining in trillions of other different patterns (and maybe some of those, given more time, would also have arrived at sustainable self-perpetuating configurations), but like an infinite number of monkeys randomly bashing keys on typewriters, sooner or later one monkey alights on that magic pattern amongst the endless versions and thus reaches the threshold first.\nIs it possible that the crypto universe is also going through an analogous (r the exact same) process?  Different crypto project teams are trying out various combinations, and we might soon randomly arrive at a ‘stable configuration’ / reach the threshold minima:  a cryptocoin that is best able to adapt and thus most fit to survive/replicate into the future, more so than the many other variants, is first to reach the minima point.  \nCrypto may thus be a technology sent to teach we humans that ancient lesson, all over again:  that combination that first achieves/arrives at that ‘viable configuration’ that satisfies the minima conditions (blockchain Eve) is the one that has the evolutionary fitness to perpetuate itself further through time (it becomes the LUA - last universal ancestor), and is thus a lesson to we humans:  we must learn to allow this self-discovering Darwinian DNA mechanism to be the method by which we create an environment/incubator that self-identifies / self-arrives at viable outcomes, those that are most fit to survive.\nPerhaps crypto is just the latest hint to us that we must learn, as collective societies, to allow Cambrian explosions as the method by which eventual winners self-emerge as most viable.  In other words:  let a thousand crypto flowers bloom.\n\n\nThere are two concepts that appear often to be mentioned/cited to explain various topics associated to crypto:  Schelling points and the Lindy effect.  To stretch the reference:  a (possible) common aspect to both Lindy and Schelling is the notion that aggregation of individual verifications/choices serves to prove (and/or generate) viability/permanence over time:  in other words, if multiple people/choosers have multiple chances over a lifetime to either confirm or defect from a given choice/decision, the fact that a given choice gets re-chosen/re-selected on numerous occasions, by a significant quorum of voters, serves as ‘proof of usefulness/proof of viability/ proof of resilience’. If everyone arrives at the same choice (Schelling) and this happens many times over many participants over multiple time periods (Lindy), then you arrive at (generate thus) a long term survivor.\nBitcoin maximalists will cite Bitcoin as a prime example of both Lindy and Schelling, as part an argument by them that Bitcoin is the only viable cryptocurrency, and will likely remain as the only surviving/worthy/viable cryptocurrency.\nBitcoin maximalists expect their honey badger to outlast/outplay all other coinz.  Bitcoin maximalists thus expect Schelling and Lindy to serve/support/instantiate their maximalist interest here.\nSchelling and Lindy depend on agents being free to choose, and thus: defect -  to change their mind.  Iran and North Korea are not examples of Schelling and Lindy - whilst indeed they are large, multi-decade, have been verified and re-verified many times by many participants, you are, however, not free to exit.  Bitcoin, and indeed all cryptocoinz, are software:  and software is the ultimate example of ‘ease of exit’.  Don’t like CP/M?  Use DOS.  Don’t like DOS?  Use Windows.  Don’t like Windows?  Use Linux.  Don’t like Linux?  Use macOS.  Don’t like macOS?  Use Android.\nBitcoin maximalists may think the logic of Schelling and Lindy serve to prove their idea that Bitcoin will retain its lock on all participants who seek to enter the crypto space and thus crowd out all other coinz, which they dismiss all as being shitcoins.  Bitcoin maximalists posit that Schelling and Lindy work as arguments exclusively pro-Bitcoin.  \nBeing software, crypto coin projects cannot escape the ‘easy exit’ dynamics that are a fundamental part of the software universe.  In this sense, crypto can be viewed to be a proof that software is a significant exemplar of the notion of ease of exit.  Fiscal incentives force participants to exit the moment they think their crypto coin will be superseded by a better, more useful, coin project.  Don’t like Bitcoin?  Fork off to Bitcoin Cash/SV.  Don’t like EOS?  Fork off to Telos.  Exit is a fundamental base aspect of crypto coinz.  Schelling and Lindy work for a given cryptocoin as long as participants are free to exit anytime:  crypto (being software) is consensual, not coercive.  Is Bitcoin true to Satoshi if it is a forced prison – all humans are corralled into the Bitcoin encampment and ‘allowed’ no other choice?\nAnother way to consider the ‘no single coin will dominate’ argument:  if it were true that one single, Lindy-confirmed, Schelling-confirmed, currency was sufficient, then the mass of billions of humans throughout history over the past ten millennia would have converged on gold as this single money/currency, years ago, and no USD, no Euro, no GBP, would have arisen to spite gold.\nIt may be that in the blockchain/cryptocurrency future, there is no Schelling/Lindy coin that predominates.  The future may always be an ‘enforced’ multicoin universe.\n\n\n\n\nDisclaimers: just my ideas about possible scenarios for near-term future. This is not investment advice. I'm ego-driven, clueless and biased, so do your own thinking. I'm not qualified, I have no special privileged position to drive my insight, I'm a nobody, is what you should assume about me and what I say here.",
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