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      "body": "I’ve been playing on WillBet Casino for a few weeks and it’s been solid. The interface is clean, which makes finding games quick and easy. There’s a good variety — from classics to newer releases — so I never get bored. The site [willbet-casino.com](https://willbet-casino.com/) runs smoothly even during busy hours, and deposits are processed instantly. Withdrawals have also been quick for me, which is always a huge plus. Definitely worth checking out if you want a reliable gaming spot.",
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      "body": "Sports betting offers a wide array of options. Bettors can wager on different sports, types of bets, and even live events as they happen. There are also a lot of projects, for example, [UFA](https://www.ufabetwins.me/ufa/), which I watched last week.",
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      "body": "I don't trust any one-day bookmaker, it's better to trust popular and proven companies. I bet through mostbet. If you are interested in a review, visit https://pandyland.net/ . The bookmaker offers a lot of bonuses for players, especially for newbies. You can take a look and see for yourself.",
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      "body": "Being a taxi driver and making bets seems funny to me, although I already earn more from a bookmaker than from a taxi, but now I do it for the soul. All because I found this site https://footballbettingz.com/ where I was able to earn some good money, because everything here is geared towards beginners. Try it too",
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      "body": "I think these are really great tips for newbies. I also decided not to bet on everything, but to choose football, since I understand this sport the best. <a href=\"https://www.dimers.com/bet-hub/nhl/schedule\">On this page</a>, I can always find many predictions for football matches, as well as quick bets that make the process easier. Taken together, it gives me a very good result, although many assured me that I would lose all my money.",
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      "body": "Trust me, you're going to like it a lot. Betting can make any game more entertaining, so I think there are no reasons for you not to try it. You just need to find a good sportsbook, and there are many of them on the internet. <a href=\"https://www.dimers.com/quick-picks\">By the following link</a>, you can check out the best platforms for betting, and I like this page because I often make winning bets there.",
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      "author": "steemitboard",
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      "body": "Congratulations @caribbeanvibe! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@caribbeanvibe/birthday1.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 1 year!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_[Click here to view your Board](https://steemitboard.com/@caribbeanvibe)_</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/carnival/@steemitboard/carnival-2019\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/http://i.cubeupload.com/rltzHT.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/carnival/@steemitboard/carnival-2019\">Carnival Challenge - Collect badge and win 5 STEEM</a></td></tr></table>\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) and get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "title": "WHO YOU GOT FOR THE WORLD CUP?",
      "body": "Is that time of every four years where fans an non football fans join together to watch the most anticipated tournament of the whole year. I'm talking about la liga. The world cup is the most beautiful event that has ever existed since I was 6 years old. I still remember Like it was yesterday when Zidane led France to winning the world cup. Now we are in a new era, an era were most people choose a team based on one player or different reasons.\n\n# Choosing a team for the world cup\nChoosing a team for the world cup to follow is something everyone must do in life. It gives life the purpose of living and watching the world cup. **How do you choose a team?** If one of the countries playing is the country of your birth then you are automatically a fan of that country. **What happens if your country did not classify?** well basically if you are a Ronaldo fan, you should choose Portugal, if you are a Messi fan you should choose Argentina. \n\n# So who's going tho win?\n\nThat's easy... it is either between these countries:\n\n1) Brazil, this is not the brazil of 2014 trust me, they qualified without loosing a single game! They are the favorites to win on my list (7-1 will not happen this time if they meet Germany)\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRf2YtfVhjfLU9u21n15X9vRSaBdKpSkcWC5GVhwUHXMV/image.png) \n\n2) Germany, strong chemistry and the previous world cup winners! (Germany always seems to amaze me how each world cup they are always in the top three favorites to win)\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXKG4gB46q54QiqknZkg38MEq1HHUJnPaNHKCSxitrbMe/image.png)\n\n3) France, young talents and of course the runner ups of the euro cup\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmf44ggQs2WAB6BPK4NKMMaEmnCpbQLnkXDizDXYRBEMG8/image.png)\n\n4) Portugal, not just because of CR7, but because they are the current Euro cup winners, so yeah they have plenty of chances.\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcb5oP9zTViUMcGAJ4gPoqXnqxab8iw8KB8VtuLP1C2FG/image.png)\n\n5. Spain, If Spain manges to keep balance and find their beautiful form that they had in 2010 they will be a dangerous team and most likely the hardest to beat.\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmd6gUEtgf4FXoiorYjSqSh8CW69RJ8Gz2FFaNj85D2AWj/image.png)\n\n\n### These are the top 5 teams most likely to win. Other memorable mentions are:\n\n### Russia\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmP4YHvVg3BiciwKPLvzHfzzx2xDwRFyiRRiJ2rg9npuMA/image.png)\n\n \n### Colombia\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSVeaVp7HK7VZXkU7kFAYgM4SZ6YswebPcd72iZHNUA1b/image.png)\n\n### Argentina, their current form is actually not that great. However they have the second best player in the world!\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPdWsyNX32dsgPknumcXtP3RDMdmeyGQU49HoGHcMa7cA/image.png)",
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      "body": "@@ -107,19 +107,18 @@\n  dive in\n- in\n+to\n  SLR mod\n",
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      "body": "![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmU75AiuRoErenK8vNZhjjXAdjaaLS8PcBrjrGfGbRFCsY/image.png)\n### Before we dive in in SLR models (Simple linear regression models) there are a few things we have to discuss and explain. \n1) What are dependent and independent variables\n2) What is a \"Time series\"?\n3) What is seasonality?\n4) What's a trend?\n5) What are residuals?\n6) What's a random walk? or what is a white noise?\n7) What's cyclicality?\n\nOf course we will briefly explain what a p value is and how you have to interpret the out put of a regression. Once we are this far that we have explained all the rules and concepts of a simple linear regression then we will show how to forecast with a SLR model. Remember always to have enough data in order to make a regression. The more data the better the quality, well in most cases. \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSY5o9tQVuCe2GXLJioaNhHXgWQrZYf5r7Gf9FvoqgKnq/image.png)\n\nWe will continue with the 7 main concepts this week and by the end of next week will be touching up on forecasting (if everything goes according to schedule).\n\n# Stay tune for more ;)",
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      "body": "If you have any questions regarding forecasting or any other topics , do not hesitate to ask we do not bite ;). We hope to have helped out a lot with this post, cheers. Remember that we will be forecasting bitcoin prices once we have shown all the rules and theorems behind the SLR. Then we will move to another segment that you as a follower can choose :D. cheers everyone and enjoy the sun.",
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      "title": "HOW TO FORECAST BITCOIN PRICES PART 3 (FOR INTERMEDIATE) !!!",
      "body": "## Why did it took so long?\nIt's been a while since we wrote something. Some of us have been busy with work, finishing master's and finding a job. Finally we are close to summer vacation, which means vacation. This also means that we will have more time to write or blogs on topics.\n\n# Which forecasting method are we talking about?\n\nWell lets pick up where we left at. In our last blog we talked about forecasting with exponential smoothing and moving average. Those two methods are really easy to use. So we definitely recommend to check our previous blog which explains these two extensively. Today we will talk about the one an only the ***regression model!***\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVsi2y6keHS8eAcgTfrsy3GHqSzapBW5uVfrQnKvgt5We/image.png)\n\n# Regression my old friend\n If you ever had statistics or basics in time-series, you have definitely heard of the regression model. We will be talking about the simple linear regression model. Linear regression is used quite often for large run forecasts and it is popular among corporate firms.\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmS5uxbGq9e9qUxApHtvNDzVPR8bcHBFmiiBhVPRVzgGrt/image.png)\n\n# SLR (Simple linear regression)\n\n***Using regression models for forecasting*** can be done in three stages. Number one specified the dependent variables. Secondly, create a model indicating the form of the relation between the independent and dependent variables. Once the first two steps have been clarified then, the model can be estimated by means of the regression analysis. Once you have the data you basically can run a linear regression analysis.  A regression analysis can be done in almost in any program and software. You can even code and make your own linear regression analysis from scratch using java , C++, python ect. If you have excel, in excel you can fin the analysis tool pack. Once you click on the analysis tool pack you can find the regression analysis option.\n\n# Developing regression models\n\nWe will now describe the basic steps that are used to develop a regression. Keep in mind there's a lot of theory behind regression, and also behind the simple linear regression. SLR can become sometimes difficult to understand because there are certain rules you have to follow. *Nevertheless, you don't have to follow all the rules and theorems, you follow the rules to make your regression model more accurate. The less rules you follow the less accurate your model will be. Here we just mention the four basic steps. In our next part theorems of SRL are discussed and in our last part we touch up on the econometrics behind the SLR.\n\n\n1) **Plot prices over time** (in this case bitcoin prices, this is also known as a time series)\n2) **Consider the variables that are relevant to predict the prices** (normally this is done, but for bitcoin we only focus on the price variable, we will talk in the next part about trends, seasonality, residuals ect.)\n3) **Collect data** (you can do this by going to coinmarketcap website and download the bitcoin prices of the last three months, last year, our last five years and put it on a excel file).\n4) **Analyze the data** (this is done after you let excel or your chosen program run the regression, you will obtain a table and a graph that you will have to interpret. We will help you in the next parts on how to interpret a regression output)\n\n\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQi93uZ4A5jiPi1mKEvETXLz8enWXoeWjDPGwUssWx9Sa/image.png)\n\n# Stay tune\n\nWe will describe the rules, theorems and analysis in the next upcoming posts. The Simple linear regression is not so simple, but do not worry we will try to explain everything as simple as possible. We will show in the end after all the basics have been explained how we can currently regres the bitcoin prices. \n\n# P.S  Just hold on in these bear markets and stay strong for now!",
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      "title": "HOW TO FORECAST BITCOIN prices PART 2 (for beginners and intermediate) !",
      "body": "# Two simple forecasting methods\nIn our previous post we discussed the different types of forecasting methods that exist. In this part we will focus on the two most simple forecasting methods. They are well known and often used by almost everyone. The two methods we are talking about  are the **Moving averages and the Exponential smoothing.** Before we get into the mist difficult and advance forecasting methods we have to explain the simple methods. In order to master an art you have to master all levels of the art, the same counts for forecasting. Just like the cartoon \"avatar ang\", you will have to become master of all the elements of forecasting.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmY9hSd6cn2x4T9fVp2H16MTa8c3CmV8MDUfNmB4BHhbwH/image.png)\n\n## Moving averages\n\nMoving averages are used to reduce the *'noise'* in data to uncover the underlying pattern by smooting out random variations.  To explain it in a more simple matter lets look at the two graphs below.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVoPVsRGA6SyY8qVzaUCoJk6XcGdEXmNWDJzqqC8whTKC/image.png)\n\nThis graph is known as a time series. The reason it is called a time series, is because time is part of the series.  When forecasting bitcoin prices you will have two components that are important. One is the **bitcoin prices and the other one is \"time\".** This graph above is a very basic time series. The bitcoin time series will not look like the one above. This graphs represents an easy pattern,  and is we can see the variation, is changes in a multiplicative way.  When we forecast this graph we want our forecast to contain the almost all the information possible in this time series. The more the forecast takes into account, the more accurate forecast will be. \n\n## So what's this smoothing?\n\nThe time series below is a good example why this smoothing can be useful. As you can see the variation changes drastically different over time. When we make a forecast of this time series, the forecast might not take every variation into account. What we want is that it does take into account most of the variation and therefore, we smooth out this variation, so that it can be taken into account when forecasting. \n\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmU5iqXMdhWFhjL4GS54WgFFn29kvPybkHTTkQZa8NsHXi/image.png)\n\nThe moving average is really simple. The way it is calculated is by adding the previous three means and dividing it by 3.  Apply this formula to your spread sheet in excel and you will be able to forecast the future price of bitcoin (highly un accurate method). One thing you have to take into account we do not know ST+1, so instead of St+1 we will now use ST-2. Let us know explain this formula, ST= the current price and ST-1= the previous price of previous period and St-2 is the previous price of two previous period.\n \n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdBYNTtewE2oMuFiaNmS85ZVHdnZSBYdVEsAV4YwnLdD1/image.png)\n\n## This all may sound a bit confusing, so let's give an example by using one of our spread sheets:\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmRUuur2YgourtShLBMBBC6Kv8A63XeuzVzbsqhW2AbxAP/image.png)\n\nAS you can see, we basically take the average of the first three periods and divided it by 3 and the value we get it the price of the next period.\n\n*** remember to define the period, in our example one period is equal to one quarter= 3 months.***\n\n## Exponential Smoothing\n\nWe just explained moving averages, now we will explain exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing is a combination of the current period's price and the previous period times a factor. The formula you can use on your excel spread sheet is the following:\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPAro1AX4QW22dQzuwjEmCFxdMsGNAaHCCTxskTHttcrT/image.png)\n\na is the factor that lies between 0 and 1. You can define a on however, you want to, but it has to be between 0 and 1. The closer to one the less variation you take into the forecast, the closer to 1 the more variation you take into account in the forecast.  You sill see a lot of St, the St is just the price of the particular time give. \n\n## Once again it all may sound confusing so let's give another example by using our excel spread sheet:\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmP5KBUwn68zG8h3LF2kuzSMMJLBaM7PjuAWVTE9P3oFhp/image.png)\n\nS25 is the current period E3 is the factor we were talking about in our case we chose 0.3. \n\nNow that you know the moving averages and the exponential smoothing, it is time for you to practice.\n\n### We will next talk about the method that is mostly used in practice and in professional companies. That method is the regression. Regression is really important for forecasting. Stay tune for the next part.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmZ1eDL2D8mCFTPoo7skziU1CLRFkh6aRSpU1wqt1BakSv/image.png)",
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      "body": "Hey everyone, If you got any questions regarding forecasting, or anything else just let us know ;) cheers.",
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      "title": "HOW TO FORECAST BITCOIN prices PART 2 (for beginners and intermediate) !",
      "body": "# Two simple forecasting methods\nIn our previous post we discussed the different types of forecasting methods that exist. In this part we will focus on the two most simple forecasting methods. They are well known and often used by almost everyone. The two methods we are talking about  are the **Moving averages and the Exponential smoothing.** Before we get into the mist difficult and advance forecasting methods we have to explain the simple methods. In order to master an art you have to master all levels of the art, the same counts for forecasting. Just like the cartoon \"avatar ang\", you will have to become master of all the elements of forecasting.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmY9hSd6cn2x4T9fVp2H16MTa8c3CmV8MDUfNmB4BHhbwH/image.png)\n\n## Moving averages\n\nMoving averages are used to reduce the *'noise'* in data to uncover the underlying pattern by smooting out random variations.  To explain it in a more simple matter lets look at the two graphs below.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVoPVsRGA6SyY8qVzaUCoJk6XcGdEXmNWDJzqqC8whTKC/image.png)\n\nThis graph is known as a time series. The reason it is called a time series, is because time is part of the series.  When forecasting bitcoin prices you will have two components that are important. One is the **bitcoin prices and the other one is \"time\".** This graph above is a very basic time series. The bitcoin time series will not look like the one above. This graphs represents an easy pattern,  and is we can see the variation, is changes in a multiplicative way.  When we forecast this graph we want our forecast to contain the almost all the information possible in this time series. The more the forecast takes into account, the more accurate forecast will be. \n\n## So what's this smoothing?\n\nThe time series below is a good example why this smoothing can be useful. As you can see the variation changes drastically different over time. When we make a forecast of this time series, the forecast might not take every variation into account. What we want is that it does take into account most of the variation and therefore, we smooth out this variation, so that it can be taken into account when forecasting. \n\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmU5iqXMdhWFhjL4GS54WgFFn29kvPybkHTTkQZa8NsHXi/image.png)\n\nThe moving average is really simple. The way it is calculated is by adding the previous three means and dividing it by 3.  Apply this formula to your spread sheet in excel and you will be able to forecast the future price of bitcoin (highly un accurate method). One thing you have to take into account we do not know ST+1, so instead of St+1 we will now use ST-2. Let us know explain this formula, ST= the current price and ST-1= the previous price of previous period and St-2 is the previous price of two previous period.\n \n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdBYNTtewE2oMuFiaNmS85ZVHdnZSBYdVEsAV4YwnLdD1/image.png)\n\n## This all may sound a bit confusing, so let's give an example by using one of our spread sheets:\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmRUuur2YgourtShLBMBBC6Kv8A63XeuzVzbsqhW2AbxAP/image.png)\n\nAS you can see, we basically take the average of the first three periods and divided it by 3 and the value we get it the price of the next period.\n\n*** remember to define the period, in our example one period is equal to one quarter= 3 months.***\n\n## Exponential Smoothing\n\nWe just explained moving averages, now we will explain exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing is a combination of the current period's price and the previous period times a factor. The formula you can use on your excel spread sheet is the following:\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPAro1AX4QW22dQzuwjEmCFxdMsGNAaHCCTxskTHttcrT/image.png)\n\na is the factor that lies between 0 and 1. You can define a on however, you want to, but it has to be between 0 and 1. The closer to one the less variation you take into the forecast, the closer to 1 the more variation you take into account in the forecast.  You sill see a lot of St, the St is just the price of the particular time give. \n\n## Once again it all may sound confusing so let's give another example by using our excel spread sheet:\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmP5KBUwn68zG8h3LF2kuzSMMJLBaM7PjuAWVTE9P3oFhp/image.png)\n\nS25 is the current period E3 is the factor we were talking about in our case we chose 0.3. \n\nNow that you know the moving averages and the exponential smoothing, it is time for you to practice.\n\n### We will next talk about the method that is mostly used in practice and in professional companies. That method is the regression. Regression is really important for forecasting. Stay tune for the next part.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmZ1eDL2D8mCFTPoo7skziU1CLRFkh6aRSpU1wqt1BakSv/image.png)",
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      "body": "Thank you for posting, this has been a really helpful post. I didn't know about ezira, but know I know a bit more. I will dig a bit deeper on what the platform is about and will have a look at the white paper. Keep on the good work!!",
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      "body": "Hope you liked the post. If you have any questions do not hesitate to ask. We are here to help out. Any issues you have with any type of forecasts just let us know, we can definitely help. Cheers, enjoy spring sun ;)",
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