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      "body": "We have to distinguish the 'bubble hysteria' and the 'tulip mania' syndrome, and the blockchain .\nTulip mania was a period in the Dutch Golden Age during which contract prices for some bulbs of the recently introduced and fashionable tulip reached extraordinarily high levels and then dramatically collapsed in February 1637. It is generally considered the first recorded speculative bubble.\n\n![tulip mania.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmfQLvZj6wbystpRZvyrLN2fHbNiaUm1NHcmFPqPTiwz1p/tulip%20mania.jpg)\n\n\n\nEarly adopter, Crypto guru and author [Clem Chambers believes it is a bubble,](https://www.investopedia.com/news/more-evidence-cryptocurrencies-are-bubble/) which has some way to run before it bursts.\n\nDuring the dot-com boom, investors in start-ups like e-toys, Webvan and FreePC regarded market share as as practically the only significant metric of business success. Captivated by slogans like \"Get big fast\" and \"Get Large or Get Lost\" they urged companies to spend lavishly to lure customers in hopes of achieving insurmountable market share advantage. The companies responded: for example, via by discounting and couponing, they created price effects. Attracting customers through extraordinary low pricing - as low as zero in some cases - is a foolproof way of buying market share, at least temporarily.\n\nWired magazine preached the gospel of the giveaway, positing a steady climb from \"free\" to \"premium\" to \"freemium\" (free+premium) pricing of the product or service. \n\nThe problem is that price effects are evanescent. They disappear the moment the discounts end or another firm offers a better price. Typically between 1 and 2 percent of customers convert from free to premium services. You therefore need to reach millions of customers before the giveaway model becomes profitable. Freemium models also create freeloaders that can be hard to monetize (that is, to profit from), as FreePC discovered in 1999 when it gave away Pentium PCs in exchange for viewing ads and the prospect of online sales. \n\n![dotcom bubble.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVpYV8W5oB9VoGWC1TvWTpdxrL3N9idxSV8LpgLcNPggS/dotcom%20bubble.jpg)\n\n\n\nBrand effects are stickier. They arise when people come to associate a particular brand with quality. But brand effects, like price effects, are often difficult to sustain. They can also be extremely expensive. EToys spent millions trying to compete with Amazon and Toys R Us. Kosmo, an online company that promised free delivery of food, books, coffee, and other basic goods in major U.S. cities, hired actress Whoopi Goldberg as a spokesperson and paid her in stock, only to have the business collapse soon after.\n\nThis is far removed from blockchain technology. Price effects and brand effects have their place in startups growth strategy. But only network effects create the virtuous cycle cryptocurrencies do, which leads to the building of long-lasting network of users - a phenomenon we call - lock in!   \n\nJohn McAfee says that cryptocurrency will soon be the only form of payment people will use. Central banks will be a thing of the past. He sees Bitcoin [reaching a value of $100,000,000](https://www.ccn.com/john-mcafees-1-million-bitcoin-price-bet-just-hit-a-major-technical-hurdle/) due to the users increasing and mining equipment advancing. \n\n[Bitcoin is following Moore's law](http://uk.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-and-moores-law-2017-8) \n\nThe rule, which was devised in 1965 by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, describes the exponential improvements of digital technology.\n\n\"Moore's law specifically applied to the number of transistors on a circuit but can be applied to any digital technology,\" Porto wrote in an email to Business Insider. \"Any technology that is growing exponentially (i.e., 'following Moore's law') has a doubling time.\"\n\n![1200px-Moore's_Law_Transistor_Count_1971-2016.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmZMooQnY69gaPmoAvGQrozJ1pe8s6SizGpkqjcKqvDRRv/1200px-Moore's_Law_Transistor_Count_1971-2016.png)",
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      "body": "<html>\n<h2><em>Evolution of Mastery</em></h2>\n<p><em>For</em> <em>three</em> <em>million years we were hunter-gatherers, and it was through the evolutionary pressures of that way of life that a brain so adaptable and creative eventually emerged. Today we stand with the brains of hunter-gatherers in our heads.</em></p>\n<p><em>Richard Leakey</em></p>\n<p>It is hard for us to imagine now, but our earliest human ancestors who ventured out into the grasslands of East Africa some six million years ago were remarkably weak and vulnerable creatures.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>They stood less than five feet tall.&nbsp;</p>\n\nhttps://steemitimages.com/DQmThQUmcb9PSShmFTvjPzjZWyKox7EMKB4LXb3wD5oSpis/early%20human.jpg\n\n<p>They walked upright and could run on their two legs, but nowhere near as fast as the swift predators on four legs that pursued them.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>They were skinny - their arms could not provide much defence.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>They had no claws or fangs or poison to resort to if under attack.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>To gather fruits, nuts, and insects, or to scavenge dead meat, they had to move out in the open savanna where they became easy prey to leopards or packs of hyenas.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>So weak and small in number, they might have easily become extinct.\n\n<p>And yet within the space of a few million years (remarkably short on the timescale of evolution), these rather physically unimpressive ancestors of ours transformed themselves into the most formidable hunters on the planet.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>What could possibly account for such a miraculous turnaround? &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Some have speculated that it was their standing on two legs, which freed up the hands to make tools with their opposable thumbs and precision grip.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>But such physical explanations miss the point. Our dominance, our mastery does not stem from our hands but from our brains, from our fashioning the mind into the most powerful instrument known in nature - far more powerful than any claw. And at the root of this <em>mental </em>transformation. are two simple biological traits - the <em>visual </em>&nbsp;and the <em>social - </em>&nbsp;that primitive humans leveraged into power.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Our early ancestors were descended from primates who thrived for millions in a treetop environment, and who in the process had evolved one of the most remarkable visual systems in nature.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>To move quickly and efficiently in such a world, they developed extremely sophisticated eye and muscle coordination. Their eyes slowly evolved into full frontal position on the face, giving them binocular stereoscopic vision. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>\n<p>This system provides the brain a highly accurate three-dimensional and detailed perspective, but it is rather narrow. Animals that possess such vision - as opposed to eyes on the side or half side &nbsp;- are generally efficient predators like owls or cats.</p>\n<p>When our earliest ancestors left the trees and moved to the open grasslands of the savanna, they adopted an upright stance. Possessing already this powerful visual system they could see far into the distance.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>In the treetops this powerful vision was built for speed - seeing and reacting quickly. On the open grassland, it was the opposite. Safety and finding food relied on slow, patient observation of the environment, on the ability to pick out details and focus on what they might mean. &nbsp;</p>\n\nhttps://steemitimages.com/DQmSnaEZRxVizRV2EZxWQtZZKnMvhVrwo5Fdru3LvUzvY7h/early%20humans.jpg\n\n<h2><em>Keys To Mastery</em></h2>\n<p><em>A &nbsp;man should learn to detect and watch the gleam of light which flashes across his mind from within, more than the lustre of the filament of bards and sages. Yet he dismisses without notice his thought, because it is his. In every work of genius we recognise our own rejected thoughts; they come back to haunt us with a certain alienated majesty.</em> Ralph Waldo Emerson.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>If all of us were born with essentially a similar brain, with more or less the same configuration and potential for mastery, why is it then in history only a limited number of people seem to truly excel and realise this potential power? Certainly in a practical sense, this is the most important question for us to answer.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>The common explanation for a Mozart or a Leonardo da Vinci revolve around natural talent and brilliance. How else to account for their uncanny achievements than to put it down to something they are born with?</p>\n<p>Yet, thousands and thousands of children are born with exceptional talent and display skill in abundance in some field yet they sometimes never amount to very much. While those who are less brilliant in their youth can often attain much more.</p>\n<p>Natural talent or high IQ cannot explain their future achievement.</p>\n<p>A classic example, compare the lives of Sir Francis Galton and his older cousin, Charles Darwin.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>By all accounts Galton was a super-genius , with an exceptionally high IQ, quite a bit higher than Darwin's (these are of course, estimates done years after the invention of the measurement). Galton was a boy wonder who went onto having an illustrious Scientific &nbsp;career, but he never quite mastered any of the fields he went into. He was notoriously restless, as is often the case with child prodigies.</p>\n<p>Darwin, by contrast, is rightly celebrated as the superior Scientist, one of the few who has forever changed our view of life. As Darwin himself admitted, he was \"a very ordinary boy, rather below the common standard in intellect ..I have no great quickness of apprehension ... My power to follow a long and purely abstract train of thought is very limited.\" Darwin however, must have possessed something Dalton lacked. &nbsp;</p>\n\n\n<p>Darwin's father a doctor enrolled him at the University of Edinburgh as a medical student. Darwin did not take to the subject and was a mediocre student.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>His father despairing that his son would never amount to anything, chose for him a career at the church. While Darwin was preparing for this, a former professor told him the HMS Beagle was to leave port soon to sail around the world, and that it needed a ship's biologist to accompany the crew in order to collect specimens that could be sent back to England. Despite his Father vehemently protesting, Darwin took the job. Something in him was drawn to the voyage.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Suddenly his passion for collecting. In South America he could collect the most astounding array of specimens. He could connect his interest in the variety of life on the planet with something much larger - major questions about the origins of species. After five years at sea pouring all his energy into this enterprise, accumulating so many specimens that a theory took place in his mind. He returned to England and devoted the rest of &nbsp;his life to &nbsp;the single task of elaborating his theory of evolution. In the process he had to endure extreme drudgery for instance spending eight whole years studying barnacles alone.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>What sustained him was his devotion to the subject.</p>\n<p>The &nbsp;basic elements of this story are repeated in the lives of all the great masters in history: a youthful passion or predilection, a chance encounter that allows them to discover how to apply it, an apprenticeship in which they come alive with energy and focus.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>They excel by their ability to practice harder and move faster through the process, all of this stemming from the intensity of their desire to learn from the deep connection they feel to their field of study. &nbsp;And at the core of this intensity of effort is in fact a quality that is genetic and inborn - not talent or brilliance, which is something that must be developed, but rather a deep and powerful inclination toward a particular subject.</p>\n<p>This inclination is a reflection of a persons uniqueness. This uniqueness is not something merely poetic or philosophical - it is a scientific fact that, genetically every one of us is unique; our exact genetic makeup has never happened before and will never be repeated.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>This uniqueness is revealed to us through the preferences we innately feel or the particular activities or subjects of study. Such inclinations can be towards music or mathematics, certain sports or games, solving puzzle like equations or problems, tinkering and building, or writing and playing with words.&nbsp;</p>\n\nhttps://steemitimages.com/DQmcKin9UL2D9j1g47ZyW2rJKMA4UnWMMULdRV1o5BV4M8U/charles-darwin-quotes.jpg\n\n\n<p>With those who later stand out by their patience, perseverance, delayed gratification, they experience this inclination more deeply and clearly than others. They experience it as an inner calling. It tends to dominate their thoughts and dreams. They find their way, by accident or sheer effort, to a career path in which their inclination can flourish. This intense connection and desire allows them to withstand the pain of the process - the self doubts, the tedious hours of practice and study, the inevitable setbacks, the endless barbs from the naysayers. They develop a confidence and a &nbsp;resiliency that others lack. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>\n</html>",
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      "title": "Antifragile",
      "body": "Let us examine a method to detect fragility - the inverse philosophers stone.\nWe can illustrate it with the story of the giant government sponsored lending firm called [Fannie Mae](http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/index.html)\nA corporation that collapsed leaving the taxpayer with trillions of dollars worth of debt & historical losses, ( and, alas, still, counting).\n\nOne day in 2003, [Alex Berenson](http://www.alexberenson.com/), a[New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) journalist produced a secret risk report to a Quant trader in New York  City. A defector had passed these documents to Alex. It was the kind of report getting into the guts of risk methodology that  for risk calculation only an insider can see - Fannie Mae made it's own risk calculations and disclosed whatever it wanted to whomever it wanted, the public or someone else. But only a defector could reveal the guts to see how the risk was calculated. \n\nAlex, and said Quant, looked at the report: simply, a move upward in an economic variation led to massive losses, a move downward (in the opposite direction), to small profits. Further moves upward led to even larger additional losses and further moves downward to no profits. Acceleration of severe harm was obvious - in fact it was monstrous. So they can  immediately see that a major blowup was inevitable: all exposures were severely \"concave.\"\n\nThe Quant, a philosopher too, after viewing the report, worked  purely  on emotions not his brain, having a pang before even calculating any numbers from the report. It was the mother of all fragilities. A smear campaign ensued, nothing too notable. A few calls calling a few people charlatans. The key equation is the nonlinear is vastly more affected by extreme events - and nobody was interested in extreme events since they had a mental block against them. \n\nThe Quant went around telling anyone who would listen to him, including random taxi-drivers  that a United States government-sponsored enterprise was \"sitting on a barrel of dynamite.\"\nOf course blow-ups don't happen everyday( just as poorly built bridges don't collapse immediately), and people kept on saying he was wrong and unfounded. His position of Quant enabled him to check similar institutions, and seeing that the problem was general, he realised that a total collapse of the banking system was a certainty.\n\nIf a 20kg rock was dropped on your stomach once it would hurt more than a 5kg rock dropped 4 times.\n\n![help.jpeg](https://steemitimages.com/DQma1hJuNerb6HK9j4w4JU8F6h1Zvgte4RWhrjj8gf2Rdni/help.jpeg)\n\nAnticipating these these extreme events, being prepared and ready and knowing the course of action to take, developing from the observer into the doer. Taking an advantage of an opportunity like a global financial wreckage. This can eternally benefit your and your loved ones. The Quant, became a flâneur - his family became financially independent for life. He knew when the [bear](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bear.asp) was beginning before everyone else. He did the same on [Black Monday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)) in 1987 -  by selling  on multiple markets  -commodities, indices, stocks, shares, futures  and options. \n\n![dow 2008.jpeg](https://steemitimages.com/DQme1r1kcVUS8rYkhGEULD1T6p6Zb1dx9ZEVhyPospwsYSw/dow%202008.jpeg)\n\nAfter this event the Quant became a flâneur sauntering around - lunching with Fat Tony and Doctor John observing and writing the fastest selling book of all time. [Spending 36 weeks on the New York Times Bestseller list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list)\n\n'Fat Tony' or 'Horizontal Tony'  is Tony DiBenedetto an intuitive guy who has never read a book in his life. He had a good appetite and was a renowned and celebrated luncheon date for  restaurateurs, and resident office inmates alike. These inmates  had liquefied stress hormones dripping from their pores, those who exhibit severe anxiety if they discuss anything that may divert them from what they think is the course of their \"work,\" and when in the process of  picking their brain you hit on a less uninteresting mine, they will cut you short with a \"I have to run\" or I have a two-fifteen.\"  \n \nThe flâneur at flâneur attended Mathematics conventions. He was  scoffed at, banned and excluded from others.   \n\nCrypto economics was a development of the last global recession and banking crisis. Bitcoin and blockchain was  a defence mechanism that was born out of the catastrophe, the latest, most certainly not the last,  major ruin in central banking. \n\nIn another occurrence of crisis, the price of crypto will rocket. People will want to take all assets out of stocks, shares, and Indices, options, and futures and funnel it into crypto and certain commodities.   Their trust in central banks will reach an all-time low.",
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      "body": "@@ -2114,24 +2114,16 @@\n ystems, \n-we might\n  we migh\n@@ -3333,17 +3333,16 @@\n g crypto\n- \n currency\n@@ -3566,16 +3566,17 @@\n ell know\n+n\n  and wid\n",
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      "body": "Many of our concerns about the first generation of the internet have come true. Powerful corporations have captured much of the technology and are using it in their vast private empires to extract most of the value.\n\nThe recent Facebook scandal  is a recent case in point. This dominant, secretive  centralised network exploiting us all.\n\n“The internet’s inherent value and power come from the fact that it is globally interoperable and decentralised,”\nsays author Rebecca MacKinnon in her book Consent of the Networked. \n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmcnpxv4rB3xa2tBSXczgiUznpwpCw5C5R9j2toY6n2JA4/image.png)\n\nThey have closed off opportunity and privatised much of our digital experience. \nWe use proprietary stores to acquire new apps on our mobile phones, tablets, and now watches and other wearable devices . Search engines and marketing departments alike interrupt our content with advertising. Big companies that promote and prosper from consumer transparency are notoriously secretive about their activities, plans, technology infrastructures, and information assets. To be sure, some companies have opened up voluntarily, but many others have merely reacted to the sunlight of whistle-blowers and investigative journalism. \nSuch disclosures are dwarfed by efforts to hide operations and conceal information.\nSimply put they haven’t been good stewards of the public trust.\n\nCase in point: The banking industry. “Banks are traditionally secret keepers,” according to [Izabella Kaminska](https://www.ft.com/izabella-kaminska)  of the Financial Times. She explained that banks make good judgements about who to lend money to and how to process payments when they have good access to private information, and they get that information by promising to keep the secret. The more secrets they hold, the greater the information asymmetry and the greater their advantages, but those advantages have harmful systemic implications.   \n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmXnBE1pjqiTb8V1aXNMZXkZRytNcgsmch8JjinsJCz3v7/image.png)\n\nThe banks have understood the challenge of digital currencies on their central banking systems, we might we might expect central bankers to oppose blockchain technology. Not surprisingly the most forward thinking central banks have understood and  embraced blockchain technology. The blockchain  importance  to their respective economies. \n\nThere are two reasons for this leadership. \nFirst, this technology represents a powerful new tool for improving financial services, potentially disrupting many financial institutions and enhancing the performance of central banks in the global economy. \n\nSecond, and this is a big one, blockchain raises existential questions for central banks. How do they perform their role effectively in a global market with one or more cryptocurrencies out of their control? After all monetary policy is a key lever in a central bankers' toolbox to manage the economy, particularly in times of crisis. What happens when the currency is not issued by a government but exists globally as part of a distributed network?\n\nTo understand why central banks are so interested. You only have to look at economies where their currency becomes virtually worthless. In Zimbabwe a loaf of bread can cost a trillion dollars one day and 500 billion the next. In Greece and Venezuela citizens are buying crypto currency and storing it as assets - it gives them more confidence for  immutability on their asset and inherent  belief back in their worth. This will be a theme worldwide as the decentralised immune blockchain becomes more well know and widespread.",
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