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      "author": "dawbin",
      "body": "<h2>The End of My NO LA DODGERS Grand Experiment</h2>For those of you who care and have followed my betting experiment, thank you! Now that the regular season has ended, I'm posting the final tally of my NO DODGERS bets. \n\nhttps://www.dogids.com/uploaded/thumbnails/la-dodgers-round_28391_310x310.jpg\nJust to summarize... the bet strategy was that since the Dodgers had gotten off to such a hot start --- and that it is very difficult for teams to win 100+ games in a regular season -- the probability in the math was that the Dodgers would revert back to the \"normal  statistical mean\".  The general consensus is that over the course of the 162 game season, even the really good teams only win around 60% of the games. That means they are losing the other 40%. So, even if I was just 40% right when betting against the Dodgers for every remaining game after the All Star Break, I would make money. I started with $1000 USD in an offshore account and was determined to see if my theory would work. My typical bet was initially around 5% of my account, but when I was just betting 1 game each night, I was only risking 1.25 - 1.5% per bet.\n\n<h2>The Ups and Downs</h2>It turns out, I was close to being right. They won 104 games -- more than the average \"good team\", which as a percentage is 64%.  Based on the Winning Percentages needed to Break Even chart, if my Underdog odds were around +155, and I won 40% of my bets, I should at least break even.![betting_percentages.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmTjR6kxv5gMmoeb1YatTk6Pj2kBR2wvg8WfzDJri2gs4p/betting_percentages.jpg) \nThe problem with my strategy is that betting a chaotic system, like sports/baseball, can really test your resolve.  I had some early success with other baseball picks, but eventually just dedicated my efforts to betting against the Dodgers, and that was not easy to stomach. If you were following them during the season, they went on a MASSIVE WINNING STREAK (uggghhh) after the All Star Break. I was really starting to \"panic\" thinking I had just picked the worst possible team for my betting strategy. But in the end, perseverance paid off, as they went on a HUGE LOSING STREAK before re-balancing to a more normal win/loss ratio near the end of the season.\n<h2>The Numbers</h2>![NotLAD1.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmUszKVfXTAFv41MbGvqnuAjhXt8ZBzxgQJzxEpJwp3aXA/NotLAD1.png) \nAs you can hopefully see, I made 72 bets and won 29 of them (which equates to the 40% I was expecting - (yea, I was actually right!), The net profit was $54.71, which is a 6.45% ROI.  Since my average odds of +246 was better than break-even +155 odds, I made money. Obviously, there are probably better ways to make a 6.45% return on an investment, but not if you like to gamble. I didn't make a enough to retire, but with higher bet amounts, and a team that doesn't win over 100 games, I might have done better.  Overall, I'd call it a successful experiment and would probably do it again next season\n![NotLAD2.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmUN54YhkfbAFuaJ62xYviF88VGsRmYPYfmov1peZGtSth/NotLAD2.png)",
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      "body": "Jets\nFalcons\nGiants\nSeahawks 44\nChiefs 55",
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      "author": "dawbin",
      "body": "Good for AJ.. a little bitter sweet. I got to witness McGuire hit #67 and #68 right before the end of his magical homerun season (before Barry Bonds managed to eclipse even Big Mac). But time marches on, and there are always new \"kids\" poised to be better and break records.  Thanks for the post!",
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      "body": "Cool. I'll follow you...can never have too many opinions! :} Hoping for more time for picks next season.",
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      "body": "Thank you I appreciate it! Looks like you're just getting started on Steemit. Good luck :}",
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      "body": "SAINTS 12\nTEXANS 8\nJETS 2\nPATRIOTS 14\nLIONS 3\nFALCONS 5\nSTEELERS 9\nBENGALS 11\nCOWBOYS 7\nCHARGERS 1\nGIANTS 4\nCARDINALS 10\nBRONCOS 6\nSEAHAWKS 13\nTiebreaker 45pts",
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      "body": "![sports-72.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmTHeJu91poPi1ikfBFwbw3RS1TtHZre6WBcqHikqi3vtS/sports-72.png)\n<h2>The Final Games for the Experiment...</h2>What a wild ride the LA Dodgers have provided as part of my experiment after the All Star Break. Overall, I've been successful with it, and would likely try it again next year. We'll see if the Dodgers are the scapegoat next season too. The premise was to always bet against the Dodgers given the fact that they would regress back toward normal \"good team\" statistical range, which is around 60%. After suffering early with their huge winning streak - my perseverance paid off, and they went on a huge losing streak, which in the end balanced things out. Don't you love the chaos of sports! \n\nI'll post my final winnings and graphs after the regular season ends. They have their remaining games against the Padres, and then a final series with the COL Rockies. From a money perspective I'd like to see the Rockies win a few - but if they do, it will likely end the Cardinals chances of making the final wild card spot. (Although truth be told,  I'm doubting they won't shoot themselves in the foot anyway). They can't seem to beat the Cubs, and then they finish with the Brewers...hmmmmm.\n\n<h2>For Now I'm Profitable!</h2>Here are my results with just few games to go. The account has a profit, and the Dodgers sit right at 100 Wins.  They'd be at 106 if they win the rest (65.4%), but I'm going to hope they lose at least 2 or 3 more![092517_results.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmXq2cgKFASopHrd41DmEmDRdWHeV2nwF3wk6jMoRWqScR/092517_results.png)",
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      "author": "majorleaguenews",
      "body": "Well done! Id love for u to check out my blog. I'm covering baseball here for community news. Lotsa recaps and opinions. Cheers",
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      "author": "dawbin",
      "body": "![sports-72.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmTHeJu91poPi1ikfBFwbw3RS1TtHZre6WBcqHikqi3vtS/sports-72.png)\n<h2>Another Dodger Losing Streak?</h2>![9566309-charlie-culberson-kenta-maeda-carlos-ruiz-national-league-west-clayton-kershaw-yasmani-grandal-mlb-colorado-rockies-los-angeles-dodgers.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmUhLcGw8REfCjLAvfuHahdkxzf9hJQ6fBELynpGoHfTcf/9566309-charlie-culberson-kenta-maeda-carlos-ruiz-national-league-west-clayton-kershaw-yasmani-grandal-mlb-colorado-rockies-los-angeles-dodgers.jpg)Well, this experiment is certainly turning out to be very unusual, but profitable if you stuck with it. I would have never predicted the statistical \"streakiness\" of the LA Dodgers during the second half of their season. After winning 4 in a row, they have now lost 4 in a row again -- 3 of them to the lowly Phillies. They are trying to salvage a win from their 4 game series during the day game today that is already underway.  I would be shocked if they lost, but stranger things have happened with this team. Below are my updated account results.\n![092017_results.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmav27G8qJRDmeq2MGEVJRQszjRXBnNNec5wygfdiXjYbo/092017_results.png)\n<h2>THU NIGHT FOOTBALL</h2> There are 2 games tonight - one college and one NFL. I'm still irritated that the Rams moved from STL back to LA - leaving us no NFL team. They have been just awful, for the most part, but SF isn't necessarily any better. So it comes down to which one is \"less worse\". If you're in any office pools, you have no choice but to pick the game. Personally, I'd rather skip it. But, just out of spite, I'll say the <b>SF 49ers to win (and cover +3)</b>. It is not the popular consensus pick, but its my pick! \n\n<b>CFB:</b> Then there is the Temple vs South Florida. I think Temple might be ranked higher than they are given credit for. Everyone is hot on S. Florida, but 19.5 pts is a lot. So I'll take <b>Temple +19.5</b>. Enjoy the games",
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      "author": "dawbin",
      "body": "![sports-72.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmTHeJu91poPi1ikfBFwbw3RS1TtHZre6WBcqHikqi3vtS/sports-72.png)\n<h2>Back from the Brink in LA...</h2>The Dodgers have returned to their winning ways, as they've won their last two series between the Giants and Nationals. WAS managed to salvage the final game on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. It think it was the first time during the experiment that the Dodgers were not the heavy \"Favorite Team\". They actually had the positive moneyline - meaning the Nationals were expected to win and they did.\n\nStill, I had a nice run back to positive territory in my account during their massive slump.  They have 13 games left, sitting at a record of 96-53.  They should easily make 100+ wins, since 3 of their last 4 series are against teams with records below .500. My prediction is they'll end up with 8-10 more wins for a final win total of 105. Of course I'm hoping they slump a bit more, but we'll see.\n\nWith Week 2 of the NFL in the books, and the Colleges coming into their Conference schedules, it will be time to turn our attention to football. I'm hoping to starting making some NFL picks and maybe a few College games each week.",
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      "author": "dawbin",
      "body": "What very interesting - non-traditional - life experiences you've had. Keep up the good work! Hope you get to spend more time with your beautiful wife and son!",
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      "body": "![sports-72.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmTHeJu91poPi1ikfBFwbw3RS1TtHZre6WBcqHikqi3vtS/sports-72.png)\n<h2>How Weird Has the Dodgers Second-Half Season Been?</h2>This has to be two of the most extreme streaks of games for the Dodgers since mid-July. They were unstoppable, winning game after game until the series with the Brewers at home. That was the first series they lost after the All Star Break. Since then they have been swept by ARZ twice (home and away), lost 3 out of 4 to the lowly Padres, and just this weekend dropped a four game set to COL at home. That is just WEIRD! They could do no wrong, and now  they can't do anything right! Still no cause to panic if you're a Dodger fan, but I'm sure you'd feel better if they snapped out of it before the playoffs start! Maybe heading back on the road to SF will set things right...\n\n<h2>The Results</h2>In the meantime, I'm not complaining.  I've finally gotten back to positive in the account (after thinking I'd picked the worst possible team for my experiment). Since my football picking was dismal this weekend, I'm glad to have had the Rockies sweep! The only problem is, if the Cards are going to make a run at the Wildcard spot, they need the Rockies and Brewers to lose.... Hmmmm.\n![091017_results.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmRtbbGfHxXPuEUEmxwnMNGNAmPXZ9TS5nrqooq9PHM81c/091017_results.png)",
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      "author": "dawbin",
      "body": "I appreciate it. Guess you are a sports fan - so hope you enjoy the games.",
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      "author": "dawbin",
      "body": "Thank you... I think I need to swap my tags a little bit.",
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      "body": "Thanks! Its been interesting...",
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      "author": "dawbin",
      "body": "I was losing - A LOT - but the \"blue Y\" means I've been winning. I'm picking the team opposite the Dodgers for each game they play. Sorry... wish I had a better Bet Tracker!",
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