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      "author": "oululahti",
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      "author": "oululahti",
      "body": "@@ -202,16 +202,78 @@\n ... ;)%0A%0A\n+But again, not trying to downtalk the effort you put into it.%0A\n By %22Beta\n",
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      "author": "oululahti",
      "body": "@@ -793,19 +793,19 @@\n  be \n+f\n ac\n-c\n+t\n or\n-d\n ed \n-to\n+in\n  by \n",
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    {
      "author": "oululahti",
      "body": "@@ -817,28 +817,231 @@\n applying technical analysis.\n+%0A%0AIt's trying to do technical analysis for a company like Apple the moment it came out of the garage. There's so much uncertainty on where it will go, such analysis is interesting but  basically useless.\n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"steem\"]}",
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    {
      "author": "oululahti",
      "body": "@@ -798,16 +798,19 @@\n ccorded \n+to \n by only \n",
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    {
      "author": "oululahti",
      "body": "@@ -546,12 +546,8 @@\n hat \n-you \n simp\n",
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      "parent_author": "forextrader",
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    {
      "author": "oululahti",
      "body": "@@ -805,20 +805,18 @@\n rded by \n-simp\n+on\n ly apply\n",
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      "author": "oululahti",
      "body": "@@ -500,22 +500,47 @@\n se and c\n-oncept\n+hances as well as possible flaw\n s etc th\n",
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      "author": "oululahti",
      "body": "@@ -107,16 +107,26 @@\n . So I'm\n+ %22somehow%22\n  aware o\n",
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      "author": "oululahti",
      "body": "I worked as an equities and derivatives trader as well as market maker in investment banking for some time. So I'm aware of the idea behing technical analysis. That's why I wrote this comment... ;)\n\nBy \"Beta\" I'm not necessarily refering to the label on the logo, but the actual developement state Steem is in atm, with the constant updates and features added as well as the fact it's on the market for merely 4 months now.\nIt's a project that's so \"new\" regarding concepts, ideas, user base and concepts etc that you simple chart patterning doesn't do any good for mid- to long-term assumptions. It's in such an early stage that it either fails completely within half a year or takes off. There's not much inbetween due to dozens of facts and issues that can't be accorded by simply applying technical analysis.",
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      "author": "forextrader",
      "body": "Nah its cool :) Most if not all financial instruments make the same patterns. This is mainly due to order flow or investor psychology like I wrote in my post. \n\nThe BETA label doesn't mean much these days. Bitcoin itself was in beta for years. Maybe it stills is? BETA is just a label used by developers to limit their liability if shit hits the fan. \n\nhttps://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bitcoin-beta-longer-gmail-1396323056",
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      "author": "oululahti",
      "body": "@@ -185,8 +185,50 @@\n e least.\n+%0A%0ABut I'll leave an upvote for the effort.\n",
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      "author": "oululahti",
      "body": "Analyzing some chart patterns for something that's barely 4 months old as well as in its very early beta-phase and trying to predict a price for year's end seems a bit vague, to say the least.",
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      "body": "In my STEEM analysis few days ago I hypothesised that STEEM/BTC will not revisited the highs at 0.0075 this year. Here are the cliffnotes of that article. It took around one month for Steem to lose over 61% of its value. This is a relatively small amount of time and points to a classic chart of bubble gone bust.\n\n![](https://s20.postimg.org/6wcpqf1ml/steem_15aug_2016_2_Copy.png)\n\nIt is highly unlikely that we're going to see STEEM resume its upward trajectory after such a sharp fall, at least for the next few months. In fact if the previous BTC crashes are any guide, the recovery may takes years.\n\nIn the past three days we got more confirmation that we’re now in downward trend. See the 2 Hour chart below. Prices rallied to a high of 0.003246 on Poloniex four days ago only to be met with heavy selling. We’re now quoted at 0.002467, close to where we were before the spike higher transpired. \n\n![]( https://s20.postimg.org/maqm2brwd/steem_21aug_Copy.png)\n\nThis reverse V-shaped price formation is a bearish signal. The large pinbar in the middle is not helping things either. It shows that the buying pressure lasted only for a short period of time before it was overwhelmed by selling. \n\nThis is exactly what you would expect to happen during bear market rallies. As I said in my previous STEEM/BTC analysis, basic market psychology is at play here. The fast decline likely caught many by surprise. Plenty of people stayed on the sidelines waiting for a bounce. If we start moving higher these traders will start to dump the coins they're holding and the higher we go, the more the selling will intensify.\n\nA continuation of the downward trend now seems likely. Possible support on the way down can be found at this month’s low of 0.002262, closely followed by the round 0.002 level. Further down we have the 0.00168 high, the breakout point for the current bubble. A revisit of this level may be met with some buying pressure, at least in the short-term.\n\nPlease follow me here https://steemit.com/@forextrader to receive my regular updates. I try to post at least once per day.\n\nMy previous STEEM/BTC analysis can be found here https://steemit.com/steem/@forextrader/usdsteem-btc-not-revisiting-the-highs-this-year-if-ever-technical-analysis-bittrex-august-15",
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      "title": "$STEEM/BTC : Recent Price Action Confirms Downward Trend (Technical Analysis, Poloniex, August 21)"
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      "body": "After the Bitfinex hack crash and the recovery that followed, bitcoin has been stuck in a large triangle pattern. The market is in a 'wait and see' mode here. The likely culprit for this is again Bitfinex as the former number one BTCUSD exchange tethers on the edge of bankruptcy. \n\nBut this is a technical analysis update so let's hit the charts! The chart below uses BTC-E price feed, exchange that took up the number one mantle from Bitfinex.\n\n![]( https://s20.postimg.org/twtxgct19/btc-19aug2016-1+-Copy.png)\n\nOn our first picture above we see that bitcoin has been stuck in a large triangle pattern. The current boundaries of this price formation are at $566 (bottom) and $577 (top). Because of the nature of this price formation, we could get a breakout with the simple passage of time, not triggered by any price movement. Because of this (and to shields us from false breakouts) a little bit wider range seems more appropriate, with a top at $584 and a bottom at $560.\n\nBearish Breakout Targets Long-Term Trendline \n\nA move to the downside has more potential due to the fact that we've been in a downward trend on the daily charts since the peak near $800 two months ago. But if we zoom out a bit we can see that  bitcoin has yet to break the long-term trendline stretching all the way back to August of last year. This year-long trendline lended some support to prices during the chaos following the Bitfinex hack and will likely continue to do so. Conservative shorts should keep this trendline in mind as a potential target. It's around $513 right now but it will slowly move up with time.\n\n![]( https://s20.postimg.org/gh6wqwkjh/btc-19aug2016-2+-Copy.png)\n\nBulls Should Stay Nimble\n\nIf we get a bullish breakout above $580, things are more complicated. As I wrote above the daily trend has been down for two months and it would be unreasonable to expect this to change. Possible targets are the $600 and $650 round levels. Bulls are fighting against the momentum and should stay nimble in this environment. \n\nThat’s it for now, please follow me at https://steemit.com/@forextrader to be updated when a new post comes up. I usually post at least once per day. \n\n![]( https://s20.postimg.org/7aom3mfb1/btc-19aug2016-3+-Copy.png)",
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      "author": "forextrader",
      "body": "I’m a firm believer in behavioral finance. This is a subset of finance that examines why people make irrational decisions. Out of this relatively new field of science, several important studies have emerged. In a series of articles I will go over some of the more important biases we as humans hold and how they impact our trading.\n\nBagholding AKA ‘The Endowment Effect’ \n\nNo the actual name of this bias is not ‘bagholding’ but ‘Endowment effect’. The endowment effect is means that people ascribe more value to things simply because they own them. In one study participants were given a mug and then offered the chance to sell it for pens of equal value. \n\n![]( https://s20.postimg.org/imnfg6jul/endowmentef.png)\n\nNot the actual mug used in the experiment \n\nAfter they were given the mug, Researches found that the amount participants required as compensation was approximately twice as high as the amount they were willing to pay to acquire the mug. Similar studies were done with other goods and found a similar bias.\n\nHow does this affect your trading? \n\nWhat we learned above is that people ascribe more value to things they already own and this includes stocks, bonds and even bitcoin. How many times have you read posts from bitcoiners that eloquently explain their reasoning as ‘HODL’.\n\nIf you’re trading discretionary, you should set rules for exiting your trade BEFORE you enter. For extra commitment, consider writing down your exit rules, whatever they may be (technical or fundamental). Remember that once you buy bitcoin or other crypto-currency, your mind will start to value it more and play tricks on you. \n\nLot of these behavioral biases are interconnected. The ‘Endowment Effect’ It is somewhat tied to other biases like ‘Loss Aversion’ but we’ll cover that one in a separate article.\n\nThat’s it for now, please follow me at https://steemit.com/@forextrader for more posts. If there’s enough interest I will go over more of these biases and how they affect your trading.",
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      "body": "I did a little screw up in the final chart, the switch line should've been in August 2015 not 2014. I spent a lot of time on this post, so don't feel like changing it. Just keep that in mind.",
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      "body": "Countless news articles and posts on reddit are alluding to a relationship between Bitcoin and the Chinese Yuan. It's hypothesized that the relationship is there because Chinese investors are using BTC as a means to circumvent currency controls in China. But does this relationship exist and if it does, how strong is it? Let's find out!\n\n![](https://s20.postimg.org/mp59nrz7h/china_flag_Copy.png)\n\nI will be using the same method of examining correlations as in this previous post. https://steemit.com/trading/@forextrader/3-steps-to-see-correlation-between-any-2-trading-instruments-on-tradingview\n\nThe two instruments we will be looking at are BTC/USD (BitStamp price feed) and USD/CNH. We are using a European exchange like BitStamp and not OKCoin for example to avoid Chinese trader sentiment influencing the data further. Although as you can see in my correlation post above and the pic below, prices on the two exchanges move neck in neck most of the time. \n\n![](https://s20.postimg.org/g3eazey9p/correlation3_Copy.png)\n\nWe use USD/CNH which is the US Dollar versus the Chinese Yuan offshore rate. This is the freely traded currency unlike USD/CNY, the onshore currency rate. The onshore rate is tightly controlled with it's value only allowed to move in a certain band around the daily PBOC fixing. The offshore rate technically trades freely in Honk Kong but the Bank has been known to make large interventions in that market as well. Nonetheless it's better to chart something that trades somewhat free compared to not free at all. Enough talk, chart time!\n\nOn the first picture below we see BTC/USD with the Correlation Coefficient plotted as a red histogram on the bottom. We will examine multiple timeframes, starting with the 4H chart. Is there correlation on the lower timeframes? Chart says NO. Notice how in the past 30 days the value of the CC Indicator keeps moving from negative to postitive territory. There is no consistent relationship to note here.\n\n![](https://s20.postimg.org/68wt41q0t/steemit-17-8-16_Copy.png)\n\nOur second chart below is the daily timeframe. Here things start to get interesting. The red histogram spent most of 2016 predominantly on the positive side, peaking at over .80 in March, April and June. This signals weak to strong positive correlation. This means that as the Yuan weakens and the USD/CNH moves up, BTC/USD moves up as well. \n\n![](https://s20.postimg.org/yztmu3vul/steemit-17-8-16-2_Copy.png)\n\nThis is a very significant finding because the normally you would expect the opposite to happen. Because these two pairs share a USD component, as the Dollar gains versus the Yuan and USD/CNH moves up, then (ceteris paribus) BTC/USD should decline. What the chart above demonstrates is that for the past year the BTC vs Yuan correlation has been so strong that it overpowered the USD element of the equation. \n\nBut one year does not make a trend. Let's examine how far back does this positive correlation go. Our next chart below is of the weekly timeframe. Here we can see that before August/September of last year, this correlation was negative! Notice how the histogram spends most of the time below the 0 figure. Then after 'the switch' in August/September happened, BTC/USD and USD/CNH started to move together!\n\n![](https://s20.postimg.org/oe9ri3pj1/steemit-17-8-16-3_Copy.png)\n\nOne does not need to look hard to find the reason behind the switch. On August 10th 2015 China  rattled currency markets by weakening the Yuan by 1.9 percent, the biggest value in  two decades. In the months that followed, the PBOC continued to slowly devalue the Yuan. \n\nThe Verdict: Yes Bitcoin and the Chinese Yuan are correlated. A weaker Yuan correlates to a stronger Bitcoin. But the correlation is a direct result of Chinese devaluation and not a persistent phenomenon. Furthermore it's not clear if the opposite is true i.e. does a strengthening Yuan lead to lower Bitcoin prices? We currently don't have much data to examine this because the USD/CNH has been on a consistent uptrend during the past 12 months. It appears that on the lower timeframes there is no correlation.\n\nPlease follow me here https://steemit.com/@forextrader\n\nIn my next post I will be covering the correlation between Ether and Bitcoin.",
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      "body": "Tnx! I will probably post a separate article on the Ether vs Bitcoin correlation. Now working on one for Yuan vs BTC.",
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      "body": "@forextrader Thanks for this. I just tried it out on ETHBTC and BTCUSD. Interesting.",
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      "body": "This is a short guide how you can see correlation between any two trading instruments on Trading View. \n\nSTEP 1: Choose your primary trading instrument. In our case we will use the BTCUSD, with a feed from BitStamp.\n\n![]( https://s20.postimg.org/uk1kdznr1/correlation1_Copy.png)\n\nSTEP 2:  Click on Indicators. This will show a long list of built-in TV indicators. Scroll down to the 'Correlation Coefficient' and click on it. Alternatively you can search for 'Correlation Coefficient' in the search box to the left.\n\n![]( https://s20.postimg.org/i6oq72y2l/correlation2_Copy.png)\n\nSTEP 3: Choose your secondary trading instrument. In the box that shows up, we again type in BTCUSD and pick OKCOIN from the list of data providers. \n\n![]( https://s20.postimg.org/9e7rjecxp/correlation4_Copy.png)\n\nOn the final snapshot below you can see the final result. The 'Correlation Coefficient' is displayed in the form of a red histogram, with values ranging from 0 to 1. The closer we are to 1, the higher the positive correlation is between the two trading instruments. On the chart below we can see that the correlation between our two choices approaches 1 almost all of time. \n\n![]( https://s20.postimg.org/g3eazey9p/correlation3_Copy.png)\n\nThis is to be expected, this is the same trading instrument BTCUSD and prices across exchanges tend to be 'brought in line' by arbitragers. \n\nIn other posts I will explore some of the most hypothesized correlations in the crypto space like Bitcoin and the Chinese Yuan or Bitcoin and Ether. Is there truth to these correlations or are market participants just seeing what they want to see? Follow me to find out https://steemit.com/@forextrader",
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