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      "body": "２０１８年６月１９日\n動態市場的簡單計算\n\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdegR8nKFE65cdaXuXHSmjhMwub4eVASokZDEkTWFfk1g/image.png)\n＜ｗｗｗ．ｃｏｉｎｍａｒｋｅｔｃａｐ．ｃｏｍ　\n１９／６／２０１８　１１：３０排名＞\n\n提起加密貨幣市場，絶大部份都會參考ＣｏｉｎＭａｒｋｅｔＣａｐ．ｃｏｍ這個網站，包括看其價錢、看其價格走勢、看市值、看不同貨幣的白皮書資料等，其中一項要看的，是排名！\n\n看其排名，除了是簡單地看某一隻貨幣，現時排在那個位置之外，更加是要跟超過１６００隻不同貨幣之間的競爭！\n\n一般來講，如果可以爭奪到排名頭２０大、５０大、１００大的話，理論上是整體市場對這隻貨幣的某一種肯定，理論上是＂空氣幣（即甚麼都沒有的貨幣）＂的騙局機會較低，這樣自然會有更多人信任。情況有些似金融市場上，不同大型指數，也有規定成份股當中的市值、流通量等要求，換言之，成為成份股不一定有好的業績，但起碼市值可達某一個水平。\n\n筆者試用每年都會出現的過千隻海龜蛋孵化過程作例子。現時有１６００隻初生海龜，最強大有力的，自然最快爬出大海，未足夠強壯的，自然較後才能爬出大海。如果有一個大浪迎面而來，能守得下盤地的，自然可以更容易出海覓食；不能守住的自然會倒退回原來地，甚至＂歸零＂。\n\n現時加密貨幣市場仍在等待新的大催勢當中，如果我們發現在某一個貨幣，其排位可以慢慢地逆流而上，即使此刻的價格距離歷史高位可能跌了８０％以上。但下一浪升浪到來時，肯定較快一批重新到頂並突破高位的貨幣之一。\n\n好了，跟著講市值跟這個排名的重要關連性。\n筆者試以Ｅｌｅｃｔｒｏｎｅｕｍ（ＥＴＮ）作為例子，執筆本文時排名１０４，市值９６６４萬美元。執筆時，排名第５００的是ＵｎｉＢｒｉｇｈｔ（ＵＢＴ），市值只有７４５萬美元，價格是０。０５６７４５美元。非常簡單地說，如果ＵＢＴ的市值突然超越９６６５萬美元以上的話，其貨幣價格理應已上升１３倍至０。７３６美元。\n\n即是說，如果一隻ＣＯＩＮ的應用性，或技術含量值得排名在１００名之內，可以曲線計算到其理論價格大約多少。\n\n進階一點，如果當整體大市都可以上升之時，例如ＥＴＮ市值上升一倍至１９３３０萬美元，而ＵＢＴ的排名仍然能超前呢？那麼即是說其價格大約是１。４７２美元，較今天足足上升２６倍！這種是動態式的計算是很重要的，因為大多數人在計算時，往往都只是靜態式去計算，希望市場獨立地為其持有的物種可以突然大升，因為，這根本就是人性。\n\n當然如果成個市場倒退，亦同樣計法。而如果某一貨幣在一段長時間中的排名漸漸後退，那就是說明，該貨幣本身出現了某些問題，正如筆者在金融市場上曾有一句格言＂市場價格，會反映絶大部份市場因素＂，如果不明的上升或下跌，必然有其原因，再以ＥＴＮ作例子，其曾經也是Ｗｈａｔｔｏｍｉｎｅ掘礦利潤排名上的前列，市值也曾經排６４左右，漸漸地下移至排名１０４，我們就知道，出現了內在問題。\n\n包括科技的前進，也是同樣有過程的，假設未來有新的技術可以擊倒今天的技術，是要假設今天的技術完全不會進化。物競天擇，適者生存，世界萬物一向如此。\n\n買大ＣＯＩＮ，掘細ＣＯＩＮ，是我們的方向。\n由於我們無法在ＦＡＣＥＢＯＯＫ推廣，你的ＬＩＫＥ及ＳＨＡＲＥ對我們十分鼓舞，如認同內容請支持我們的黙黙工作。\n\n吳家順\n海納電競基金創辦人\n全球第一隻電競基金",
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      "body": "2018年6月１9日\n\n簡単な計算―動態的なマッケート\n\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdegR8nKFE65cdaXuXHSmjhMwub4eVASokZDEkTWFfk1g/image.png)\n＜ｗｗｗ．ｃｏｉｎｍａｒｋｅｔｃａｐ．ｃｏｍ　\n１９／６／２０１８　１１：３０仮想通貨ランキング＞\n\n仮想通貨と言えば、大抵な人もＣｏｉｎＭａｒｋｅｔＣａｐ．ｃｏｍで現在の取引価格、時価総額、価格推移など\nを参考します。その中で、ランキングが一番重要だと私は思います。単純にある通貨今のランキングだけではなく、１６００種の仮想通貨との競争も見なければなりません。\n\nもしある通貨がトップ１００位以内に入れるなら、この通貨は理論的に肯定されます。騙されるチャンスも低いし、信頼できます。その状況は金融市場と似ています。異なる株価指数も同じく、構成銘柄の株価と流通する可能性については一定な要求があります。つまり、構成銘柄になれることは好業績に限らなくても、その市場価値が一定なレベルに達します。\n\n海亀の産卵を例にするだと、現在には１６００匹の子ガメがいます。最も強い子ガメは一番乗りに海へ旅立ちます。逆に、そんなに強くない子ガメはもちろん強い子ガメより遅くなります。もし大波が来て、沿岸部を守れるなら、海へ行くこともできます。しかし、守れないなら、原点に戻されるチャンスが高いと考えられます。\n\n現在、仮想通貨の市場は新たな刺激を期待しています。もしある通貨のランキングがゆっくりと遡行して、たとえ現在の価格は高値より８０％値下がったとしても、次のチャンスが来る時、この通貨のランキングは必ず随分上に上がります。\n\nさて、次は時価総額とこのランキングの関連性について話したいと思います。例を挙げます。この文章を書いた時、Ｅｌｅｃｔｒｏｎｅｕｍ（ＥＴＮ）のランキングは１０４で、時価総額は9664万アメリカドルでした。また、ＵｎｉＢｒｉｇｈｔ（ＵＢＴ）のランキングは５００でした。その時価総額はただ745万アメリカドルで、値段は0.056745アメリカドルでした。もし、ＵＢＴの市場価値が急に9665万アメリカドルを超えたら、その値段は１３倍に上がって、0.736アメリカドルになるはずです。\n\nつまり、仮想通貨のユーティリティ、及び技術のレベルは１００名に入れる実力があるなら、その推測値段が計算できます。\n\nもっと詳しく言えば、もし市場全体が向上するとき、ＥＴＮの時価総額が二倍になって、19330万アメリカドルに至ると同時にＵＢＴのランキングはそれを超えられるなら、その値段は約1.472アメリカドルになれ、今日の値段と比べると、なんと26倍に上がりました。こういう動態的な計算も凄く大事だと言えます。大抵な人は計算をする時に、ただ静態的な方法で計算して、自分が持つものだけが急に上がると願っています。これは正に人性だというものだ。\n\n勿論、市場全体の景気が下降するとしたら、その状況も同じです。もしある通貨のランキングは長い間に下がり続けるなら、その通貨自身は問題があると説明されます。筆者は、金融市場に関する一つ名言があります：「値段の高さはを変動要因を映し出す」。値段の上がりと下がりは必ず原因があります。ＥＴＮを見れば分かります。そのランキングは昔64位に至ったことがあります。今は104位になっては、内部問題があるとわかってきました。\n\n技術の発展は時間がかかります。未来に新たな技術が発展され、今の技術を超えられる前提としては現在の技術は全然進歩していません。自然界で、劣った生物は自然淘汰されます。この世は所詮「弱肉強食」だと言えます。\n\n私たちの方針は「仮想通貨時価総額上位により、ランキング高いのは買う、ランキング低いのは掘る！」フェイスブックでの宣伝はできませんので、もしこの文章が役に立てるなら、どうか私たちを応援してください。私たちにとって、一つ一つの「いいね！」と「シェア」も凄く大事です。これからもよろしくお願いします。\n\n吳家順（トーマス、ゴ　カー　ジュン）\nAGG　eスポーツファンド創立者\n世界初めてのeスポーツファンド",
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      "body": "thank you so much. \nok, follow you , yeah. :)",
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      "author": "fund.crypto.mrt",
      "body": "２０１８年６月１３日\n說好的６月升市呢？\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTf195LwDyENtoX1x9HVQ7bRMWD2zSLzfebCBoi6ehQ1f/image.png)\n＜對於掘礦的人來講，短期升跌我們可以不理＞\n\n＂幣圈＂，對於唔懂的人來講，又或者沒有其他好事可以講的人來講，聽好似型型地，又有少少神秘，好似馬圈、股壇、娛樂圈、雀友、飯腳、單車友等，只是一個圈子的名稱。\n\n而在今年初的礦難之後的２０１８年第二季，所謂的幣圈間流傳，更準確的字眼是一廂情願地，希望歷史簡單重複地希望６月會是升市，然後一群無所事事的人突然變富豪。最近ＢＩＴＣＯＩＮ又突然下跌１０００美元，這些馬經黨自然又消失了。這些＂贏就做廣告，輸就唔關我事＂的情況見怪不怪，我們只是想帶出一點，做人都要面對現真實，特別是假如你想自己有所進步的話，不去了解真相難有進步。就似本人的格言，＂輸就是輸，贏就是贏，多講無謂＂。\n\n在我們一直指出，８月份，市場有機會開始改變，在此前，只要持續累積便可。如果擔心這個市場最終歸零，請不要入場，這市場並不適合你；如果只是擔心何時會升，則請先入場，不入場升不升也沒有分別。\n\n我們也提過，我們的方向是買大ＣＯＩＮ掘細ＣＯＩＮ，那麼應該如何買大ＣＯＩＮ？今次講最基本的，就是買大ＣＯＩＮ也需要開一個戶口，我們以最大的＂幣安＂，ｗｗｗ．ｂｉｎａｎｃｅ．ｃｏｍ，作舉例說，並用以下附圖說明。\n\n１）必然是先到幣安，註冊＞輸入資料，記緊個密碼，輸入邀請碼（如有）＞透過電郵激活戶口\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeE8SPFZkpb9RwrUeTKLUuwqXnDx9Rm8Zg1umsP9JFkkv/image.png)\n\n２）基本註冊完成後，建義馬上完成個驗証程序。\n非中國境內的，就選＂ＯＴＨＥＲ＂，正常填寫資料後，附上身份證明正面背面，再影相。\n這一步很重要，因為再大的交易所也會有一定風險：風險一）如筆者所講，又被駭客入侵（多數是自己的右手入侵了）；風險二）不論大小金額，要提取實款項時遇上問題，戶口再多錢也枉然。\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmarcQqBNGnK6SVYy8HDEhdPz1cEVoidpQpPSc1ojHVJdW/image.png)\n\n３）完成註冊及驗證後，當然就要開始進場吧。\n按＂ＦＵＮＤＳ＂＞按＂ＢＡＬＡＮＣＥＳ＞選擇適當的ＣＯＩＮ，按存入？提取？\n進場前，再學習記長長的密碼，又或用ＱＲ　ＣＯＤＥ，因為不同ＣＯＩＮ的往來，絶大多數皆以這種方式運作的。\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSKBsshDUmF7Lq3w33BwuZUyD3sByPuLhN7hCPoPssqVv/image.png)\n\n４）最後來到交易部份，下圖交易版面，跟中國股市的交易版面很接近，買入及沽出，基本上也不難明白。\n基本上，是你的電子銀包中有足夠的購買力或貨量就可以買入或沽出。\n有些交易所提供槓桿買賣及沽空，筆者勸大家，不要用炒賣的心態看待加密貨幣市場，長期累積是不二法門。\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcRLcC98suVhafYteMC5Em4FX9TKRXKB3YVbrSRkttQqT/image.png)\n\n５）最後，大家如果習慣買股票的話，都會先打錢進賬戶，加密貨幣的市場類似，但打進的大部份都是加密貨幣為主，即是先將以太幣、比特幣打進賬戶，再用以太幣、比特幣做交易，這是最常見的方法。\n\n說到這裡，親身試試開戶吧，反而開個戶口不需要花費的，ＪＵＳＴ　ＤＯ　ＩＴ！\n\n其實，對一般大眾來講，這個方式仍然煩複，，其實也就是說，當有一天，可以簡單地用法定貨幣進行交易的話，整個市場的生態將會改變，以現時可知的因素計算，最快可能在８月開始！\n\n買大ＣＯＩＮ，掘細ＣＯＩＮ，是我們的方向。\n由於我們無法在ＦＡＣＥＢＯＯＫ推廣，你的ＬＩＫＥ及ＳＨＡＲＥ對我們十分鼓舞，如認同內容請支持我們的黙黙工作。\n\n吳家順\n海納電競基金創辦人\n全球第一隻電競基金",
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      "author": "fund.crypto.mrt",
      "body": "科技霸權會否持續?2018年6月06日\n\n這編文章，會是以科技投資為主導，牽涉到數字貨幣未來的一些發展可能性。\n\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdvNJYvqhuFMfZzCb8vz358SZtt92kMsJemHjVX3VAADk/image.png)\n\n\n\n在我給客戶的信件，以及較早前一場關於加密貨幣講座之中，筆者已提及＂下半年，傳統的科技股似乎將會再次枱頭＂，似乎成真了。\n\n科技股之所以受到市場所喜歡，除了科技不斷前進、好似不受貿易戰所影響、科技改變世界、人類對科技的習慣有所改變之外，其實，科技股也有一定周期的，而科技股這種周期，除了本身經濟周期的起伏之外，也要配合科技向前突破，不走回頭路，因此，科技股的周期亦跟科技的潮流有關連。\n\n簡單舉一個例子，一般公司用電腦大約3年就到換機潮，但現在要更新更換的內容，跟3年前的表面上一樣，內容上有些不同了。例如3年前我們可能會用公司HARDDISK硬盤作為主要的儲存資料，現在轉為CLOUD雲端儲存，那麼3年前要更新的是HARDDISK，現在要更新為CLOUD。假如3年前HARDDISK的公司無法轉型，那市場資源肯定要轉到CLOUD類別的公司。而由一種產品轉至另一種產品，其生態鏈也會有所不同。\n\n很正常地去想，大企業都會有很多資源去發展，怎會趕不及? \nKODAK, YAHOO, Toys”R”us, 甚至IBM等，都曾經盛極一時的企業，結果都是因為企業改變太遲，最終無法扭轉敗局。\n\n因此，科技界的周期，除了產品本身的周期之外，也要看世界科技環境的演變情況。現時說科技，包括很多東西，例如人工智能、大數據、物聯網、雲端、高速流動連接、無人駕駛、無人機等，不能盡錄。\n\n今年，將有全新的科技出現，就是區塊鏈，連帶加密貨幣！\n應該說是對普羅大眾來講全新吧！這技術第一次廣為人知，是２００８年由一位自稱中本聰的人，創立了ＢＩＴＣＯＩＮ（比特幣）！\n\n筆者認為，今年下半年，很有機會出現翻天覆地的改變！就是，如果連美國大型交易所，例如納斯達克交易所，甚至紐約證券交易所，都會推出自家的加密貨幣交易平台，到時，這個市場的生態就會大幅改變！\n\n為何大型交易所都會推出自家的加密貨幣交易平台？因為現時全球大約有２５０間不同的加密貨幣交易平台，以最大的幣安去計，每天的交易費用收益已經３百多萬美元，相比股票市場如此無限多的交易規條，這些傳統世界性的大型股票為了爭取盈利，又甚會錯過這些機會呢？因為，她們入場是必然是，暫時納斯達克交易所已宣布２０１８年１０月會推出自家的加密貨幣交易平台，未來肯定即將有更多相關消息，在你爭我奪之下，估計紐約證券交易所也會準備進入這個市場！\n\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXkhwfeG6Fka5UaMZJzUHrwKs4KGkPmVecGeJcMCRaqzb/image.png)\n\n在各種原因底下，現時參與這個市場的資金仍然屬於非常少數，不到全球資金的０．１％，假如有大型正規的交易所進入市場，就更加會讓其他未參與的人士一起參與，而金融市場如果投入１％的資金，整個加密貨幣市場的生態就會改變！為何會有這種改變？大家只要問自己，你會信一間不知名的交易所？還是納斯達克交易所？假如到時可以直接用美元買賣這些加密貨幣，也是另一個關鍵位之一。\n\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSw98drqYnDzFz26ijKX94NfSSaTVwXfV12cS2wFKkSBU/image.png)\n＜２０１７年８月，各種市資產市值比較，只例出部份＞\n\n\n現時，加密貨幣市場比較主要地，是由ＩＴ人主導，如果當一個市場多一批大量資金進入，大家猜一猜，事情會如何發展呢？ \n\n因此，這一輪科技霸權，甚可以少了這一部份，而筆者相信這一部份也絶對是大型趨勢之一，時間，大約在８月開始！\n\n吳家順\n海納電競基金創辦人\n全球第一隻電競基金",
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