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      "title": "Lose money in Crypto recently? It is not because you are stupid....",
      "body": "I was reading a job ad that said: \"Being Correct = Making money\" and \"Let the Market tell you what is right\".\n\nBut yet, does it? \n\nInvestors in crypto are highly intelligent, adaptive and for the most part extremely logical. Understanding block chain, smart contracts, proof-of-work, hash rates, \"Tangle\", ERC22 is no small feat. \n\nThe terms and logic is endless and is changing so rapidly it is hard to keep up. \n\nSome \"gurus\" have made money via crypto and thus they are geniuses and can teach others to do the same. The belief of the selling point is that you can continue making money because they have a significant edge in the amount of work they put in. \n\nBut is this really the case?\n\n# Markets mostly move in Trends\n\nI have been around the block when it comes to the financial markets. When I was growing up, there were workshops on investing in web companies (2000) later when I started trading, there were countless schools teaching forex trading (2008-2009) prior to that was the futures traders in their commodities cycles (early 90s).\n\nNow countless gurus are talking about Cryptos (including myself). \n\nBut if being right = making money, what happens when the entire market turns? or stagnates like how it has done recently?\n\nI love the sandbox I am in called eToro because not only can i help others invest their money, but it gives me an avenue to understand psychology in the markets real-time. \n\nA good fresh example is last year when the dollar weakened suddenly and dramatically. Was there a reason for such an incident? Maybe on hindsight, but at the time. Not really.\n\nWhat happened to \"Popular Investors\" who focused on Forex? Most of them got in trouble. These are smart people who have honed their craft in trading over many years, but got wiped out by a market beyond their control.\n\nWe are all subject to market forces. \n\n# H1 It does not take a genius to buy and hold. \n\nIn an upward moving market such as Bitcoin, BCH and such. Gurus who have made money this way may or may not have just been plain lucky. Best way to tell is how they have taken losses.\n\nIf they disappear completely off their YouTube channels or become Private on the eToro wall. You probably have an answer.\n\n#cryptonick",
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      "body": "Thanks for the feedback @fundmanagerzech :)",
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      "body": "Opened 2 positions this morning $USDCHF & $CHINA50 \n\nI spent quite a long time researching into the Chinese market. And it is hard for me to believe the current narrative that interest rates are affecting the stock market this adversely since:\n\n- it does not explain the January Rally, \n- for the Chinese market most of its debt is locally denominated so the central bank is able to reduce RRR or interest rates to support the economy.\n- I am sympathetic to Kyle Bass's thesis, but recent podcast on real vision give me reason to go against it.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmX9Qf79FAPhUnUvnr2RGfNMDdSZy6TK37zP3jyHGAe8Ba/image.png)\n \nSo the effect of higher USD interest rates should not be as severe. \n\nHowever, i understand that the previous “taper tantrum” in 2013 & 2015 have provided similar results. And given the market has dropped by so much in the past week, wiping out previous gains in January and even taking out previous support levels easily, it is easy to see why we would believe in the narrative.\n\nHowever, even if Chinese growth slows to around 5%, it is still higher than the 2% experienced by the US and still higher than the 10-year Treasury rate. And right now, i am still a believer than Chinese CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings) ratios will even out with the US eventually. \n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmepxEsN5MiDMGp5arXpkb4RVjNWu8dqx41vuuoDAi3PTB/image.png)\n\nFrom a relative valuation point of view, i will be looking at that for clues as to when my position is wrong.\n \nIf prices go beyond 13,500 I will move stop loss to 12,840 levels as strong “support”. \n__________________________________\n\nFor the $USDCHF position, i wanted to visit the long $USDOLLAR thesis again. \n\nReason being, it has not moved as much as one would think since the stock market has taken such a large hit. \n\nThe arguments on both the bull case (US dollar strengthening) and the bear case are compelling.\n\nBull case, it has found the bottom. As the risk-off environment is encouraged by the market. It will move higher.\n\nBear case, the stock market will resume its direction to its highs. The volatility is gone and the dollar will resume its downward trend. \n\nI chose the USDCHF because it is already in extremely oversold territory and I do not see any economic forecast that will affect them that much. Most of the position will hinge on the dollar strength or weakness.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmRj15Jjbz3XuyAaTUhpTBcB4CyMW8t9dPrpRY6NoGXCdv/image.png)\n \nEntry: 0.9382\nStop Loss: 0.9284, I may add more at this level as well. Due to how oversold the indicators are. \nTake Profit: 0.9684 (Fibbo 61.8% retracement Level) or 0.9500 (38.2 retracement Level)\nRisk:Reward = 1:3 or 1:1.45\n\nI would have preferred to have added positions to the USDCAD thesis, but at the moment, I am questioning if I am correct given the economic data. Stop loss was moved to Breakeven for this position to protect against possible losses.",
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      "author": "fundmanagerzech",
      "permlink": "writing-about-failure-bad-chinese-index-a50-trade",
      "title": "Writing about Failure: Bad Chinese Index (A50) Trade",
      "body": "**Summary:**\n- Bad drop in CN50\n- No Fundemental Reason, at least offical one.\n- 7 Standard Deviation Day, only once was an ATR of this range recorded in the last 532 trading days (2 years).\n\n__________\n\n**Commentary From this morning:**\n\nThis morning on waking up, the market jumped. As the $AUS200 $JPN225 , was the first to open, i assumed the resumption of normal trade. The Malaysian, Singapore and even Jarkarta Index were all up as well upon opening. \n\nI entered the trade quickly went south, dropping by about 2%, erasing all its gains. I remained calm as I thought it was just retesting the gap. \n\nCN50 continued to drop, so i turned on Bloomberg TV. No news. Just a note to say it is dropping.\n\nSo i left it, 3 hours later, we were 3% down on no news.\n\nI closed out my position having lost about 2% of my acount. I already made 1% from last month, so net this position is down 1%.\n\n![China50 Index Price Chart   History   Analysis   eToro.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmZLcpkSUodEhFsa1AFFm56FavREGA7jRqTcvS6zjDjVHz/China50%20Index%20Price%20Chart%20%20%20History%20%20%20Analysis%20%20%20eToro.png)\n_____________________________\n\n**Thesis:**\n\nMy initial thesis for this, is the status quo. \n\nEurope, the US indices all continued as per normal. Sure we had a major sell of. The VIX, XIV and VXX exploded, and potential fallout from this could be a global recession (if we have a pension crisis). \n\nHowever, I was of the opinion that everything seems to be back. All green across the board today. \n\nHowever, we got caught in quite litterally a black swan event caused by absolutely nothing. \n\nMy experience of the Chinese Markets is generally quite manipulated and much insider trading. But the CN50 is diversified enough to prevent single entity whips like what we saw.\n\nDays like these do happen and it is just unfortunte. The only thing we can hope to do is not lose too much when it happens. \n\n![Untitled.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmd9fhYrXYU9QsX6sLq5LHjyjAABKp5mnpgy88nQaS3FWT/Untitled.jpg)\n__________________________\n\nI could write alot more, but i will leave it as that.\n\nI opened another trade expecting this market to rebound tomorrow. Stops are close, only risking another 0.5% of the accounts. You don't get 3 SD events without a rebound, let alone a 7 SD. \n\nOn the daily charts, it is a retest of the previous highs. \n\nIF something major is happening and this continues to drop. There is going to be something absolutely major announced out of China soon.\n\n______________________________\n**Lesson:**\n\nThings like these do happen. It is just unfortunate.\n\nThis is also unfortuntely life, all you can do is wake up, work hard and hope for the best. \n\nYou can put in the work.. try your very best.. even out husttle your competition..\n\nThings can still work out wrongly for no reason other than bad side of probabilities.\n\nBut i get up everyday, hoping that the God who loves us, who wants the very best for us, has our interest in mind. \n\nIf you are doubting yourself, your purpose, your life.  Running into wall after wall. \n\nI pray that you may see that God cares. And may that give you hope.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmWHyiYHLVdcZk3sxvHpUid6S848FBdivrXpa2ybdZTPni/image.png)",
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      "body": "**Why**\n\nMy goal: Help 1,000 people manage $10,000\n\n![simpsons.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmaxf2jUwsMUHoVCGxujXXWHMhUs2y972pUjTGyfhQCEhQ/simpsons.jpg)\nSource: http://junkee.com\n\nI have alot of ideas. For Long form thesis like the one I recently did on SA (SeekingAlpha) contains a high amount of research and conviction. It took a lot of time, research and money to copyedit and research the idea.\n\nhttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4118389-2_5-reasons-weaker-loonie\n\nYet, most of my time is spent apart from these ideas. They revolve around books, philosophy and failed experiments from the market. \n\nSteemit gives me the avenue to express these ideas without the constraints of SeekingAlpha where research and editing is key. \n\nAlthough longer form ideas may still go on there, I plan to use Steemit to develop my personal brand. \n\nFollow me as I will be posting things like:\n•\tBook lessons\n•\tFinancial Podcast Summaries for the week\n•\tChristinanity/Philiophy and Finance\n\n\n**How**\n I do this: A FinTech Platform known as eToro \n(find out more here: http://partners.etoro.com/A54890_TClick.aspx)\n\nI have not always been positive on Cryptocurrencies as a whole. But Steemit is something I want to be a part of.\n\nThere is fake news around the internet. Facebook, YouTube and even eToro has created a small sounding board where everyone lives in their closed bubble of ideas. There is very little area for reflection.\n\nSteemit is an open platform, one where we can diaglouge and speak about different ideas. I like the way it is structured and I think it can be something huge.\n\n\n**Who** \n\nMy Profit & Loss stats: https://www.etoro.com/people/fundmanagerzech \n\n![5X2A0720.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmV3GJKoLc6r4gps8atBKg2vUfzgqd5e2mMYGo7F18K1c4/5X2A0720.jpg)\n\n1. I am a member of Mensa (IQ >98% percentile), \n1. worked in an investment bank \n1. more than 10 years of trading experience\n1.  have a Masters in Finance, Bachelors Accounting, a Diploma in Banking & Finance.\n\nAnd NONE OF IT MATTERS in investing.\n\n\nThe market is vicious. It will wipe you out if you are not careful.\n\nYet we try and game the market to try and make 100% a month. It is super dangerous. There's a reason why most funds range between -10% and +10%\n\n\n**What**\n\nMy style of trading is Global Macro. I trade according to research and ideas I post on \neToro: @Fundmanagerzech, Steemit: @Fundmanagerzech, YouTube: @Fundmanagerzech and zechz.com.\n\nI trade in a transparent manner.\n\nI do copytrading, meaning my capital is at risk. If I make money, you make money. If you lose money, I will feel the pain right along beside you.\n\nThis alignment of interest is called by Nassim Taleb  \"skin in the game\".",
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