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      "body": "![11111.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRFE1y8i43XhBbsBNc1EfPdS1x6j3t63CY5NAAvemp5nX/11111.png)\n\n作者 | 哈希派 - LucyCheng\n\n文章字数：2300字左右\n阅读时间：约2分钟\n\n\n抢先推出比特币期货的Cboe，今天也率先将自家期货合约XBT载入历史。\n\n\n面对首款由大型期货交易所推出的合约下线，包括MacroCryptoRevo以及BitPay联合创始人Tony Gallippi在内的人都认为，这对现货市场来说是重大利好。Lowstrife告诉我们，期货下线在一定程度上有助于减少操作现货价格等空手套白狼的行为；而Tony则表示，Cboe的比特币期货在六月份结束后可能会迎来下一轮牛市。\n\n\n![image001.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZYoiGhyLfYGLxTH5ApBGXnEN4K9JWs6d4xCiE1c29QeD/image001.png)\n截图源自：BitPay联合创始人Tony Gallippi的推特\n\n\n牛市会不会来，我们现在不得而知；但Cboe比特币期货自上线以来有没有对BTC价格产生影响，还是有迹可循的。\n\n\n\n宣布即暴涨，上线迎大跌\n\n2017年年末比特币价格被疯狂推高并一举突破两万美元大关，过程中Cboe比特币期货的推出也有一记功劳。\n\n \n![image002.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXCPgZCwEf5ebd37wY5kmH1wByCR9Cn582YGa22HPVFHS/image002.jpg)\n截图源自：Coinmarketcap\n\n\n从12月1日美国监管当局允许比特币期货在CME以及Cboe交易开始，比特币便迎来连日暴涨；截自当月8日Cboe期货上线前夕，BTC价格已逼近19000美元，累计涨幅超80%。到了比特币期货开启交易当日，市场情绪更是高涨，该合约交易还因为BTC价格持续飙升而多次触发熔断机制。\n\n\n当然这种上涨势头并没有持续很久，期货合约刚上线第二天比特币价格立刻滞涨转跌，而且下滑幅度也足以触发熔断机制。虽然往后一周因CME比特币期货即将上线，BTC价格又迎来二轮暴涨；但同样的，在其期货合约正式开启交易之后，比特币掉头急跌的戏码再次上演。\n\n\n急转直下的剧情，让Cboe和CME两大交易所的比特币期货背上了「牛市杀手」的骂名。加密货币技术分析师Steven指出，期货市场或是此次下杀（17年12月下旬比特币价格暴跌）的罪魁祸首，“在期货开盘之后，比特币会变得下降，有很多数字货币持有者都要承受风险，因为期货交易者做空几乎是不可避免的”。此外临近Cboe期货结算日之际，莱特币创始人李启威还表达了对交割日的担忧。对他而言，Cboe比特币期货的交易量极其低而且基于Gemini交易平台的比特币成交价，这使得该期货合约很容易被资金操控；为此在交割日前后，他会很非常谨慎地参与交易。\n\n\n\n回顾2018年1月17日前后比特币的价格走势，也确实如李启威所说，现货价格出现了明显的大幅波动。在结算日前一天，比特币出现断崖式下跌，单日录得超17%的跌幅；然而到了结算日当天下滑趋势开始减缓，并于随后四天开始反弹上涨。更有趣的是，CME结算日前后，比特币价格也出现了这种先大幅下跌复又回涨的类似操作。\n\n \n\n![image003.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmV4CqWakaf8iAyBiN7UtmVm71yScCx4ShoWbnY1RCnQNB/image003.png)\n截图源自：Coinmarketcap\n\n\n\n两大期货首次结算日前后的异常波动，给市场留下了深刻的印象；正因如此，社区关于「交割日效应」的讨论逐渐增加。\n\n\n\n多空博弈继续，「交割日效应」呢？\n\n实际上，临近交割，波动加大，已经是交易员的共识。因为快要到达合约交割日期的时候，参与期货交易的多空双方为了争取到对自己有利的合约交割价，会在最后一刻通过释放利己消息、使用强大资金实力迫使对手盘巨亏等等手段对期货乃至现货价格施加影响，让自己盈利。说到这里值得一提的是，去年九月加密货币交易所Kraken曾在推特上质疑美国纽约州总检察长办公室，称其在Cboe期货合约结算前发布《虚拟市场诚信活动报告》，存在内幕交易的嫌疑。\n\n\n![image004.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTEsozKZFSn2o4tQiSzbPaXryCAC9AeJ42dm192HVqqQD/image004.png)\n\n截图源自：加密货币交易所Kraken的官方推特\n\n\n\n确实在Cboe期货刚开始几个月的结算日前后，比特币价格皆出现了明显的价格振幅；不过正如下图所示，随着时间的推移，Cboe比特币期货到期与现货市场的相关性已逐渐消退。\n\n  \n![image005.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmR6jjELkUac3KYoBeL925MbNGCedDpgpx199RQcycUky9/image005.png)\n![image006.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcYvoaRebicBYmooXqJ98C1e2R64jWBJWEx9za6TDReU9/image006.png)\n红色圈地方为，从去年1月到今年5月Cboe比特币期货合约的交割时间点（截图源自：Coinmarketcap）\n\n\n\n从具体数据来看，2018年2月和3月Cboe期货合约结算日前，比特币均表现出超10%的价格涨幅；其中三月份合约交割前后，和一月份一样出现了先跌后涨的价格走势，而二月份合约交割期间比特币价格则连日大涨，交割当周累积涨幅愈20%。不过从去年四月份开始，这种交割日即波动加大的趋势开始逐渐减弱，有时甚至出现直接横盘而过的情况，比如去年10月、今年2月以及3月等期货交割期间，BTC价格日内涨跌幅不超过1%。\n\n\n![image007.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmb8ArXy2qzFE2iWxdqxhz5DUW8f8zeRDtYxJAucu79fBY/image007.png)\n数据源自：Coinmarketcap\n\n\n当然，随后的期货结算日期间偶尔也会出现超5%的价格涨幅；但追溯历史不难看出，相关时间段的价格波动很大程度上不单单是受到Cboe期货交割的影响。以去年十一月期货合约结算日为例，虽然交割前比特币价格有近10%的暴跌，但该月中旬价格下滑的诱因更多是BCH算力战带来的连锁效应；而上月结算日前的价格拉升，则受到Bakkt宣布推进实物结算比特币期货合约产品计划的影响。\n\n\n\n回到最近关于Cobe停止比特币期货的讨论，我们很容易能找到原因。相较于CME与BitMEX，Cboe的比特币期货交易量占比实在太小。根据TradeBlock的数据显示，从去年开始Cboe的比特币期货交易量持续锐减；最近几个月甚至屡创新低。所以说，Reddit和推特上很多人认为，Cboe期货如此小的交易规模，即使下线了也不会对市场成交量乃至比特币价格产生多大影响；那么其结算日带来的市场反应就更不用说了。\n\n ![image008.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWuUVWx4mfp4L1op7XHwXtkCW3Jqh9dft1HPnEjhWZmwe/image008.png)\n深蓝色为CME比特币期货交易量；浅蓝色为Cboe比特币期货交易量（图片源自：TradeBlock）\n\n\n\n而且Cboe的比特币期货本就先天不足，其合约单位为1BTC，仅有3个最近月合约，并要求44%初始保证金的设定，没有CME期货合约的设计讨喜（CME的期货合约以5个BTC为单位，有4个月份合约，要求35%初始保证金，即3倍左右杠杆）。与Cboe相比，CME更受机构投资者的青睐；而规模更小的Cboe合约则更多是小型投资者的选择。为了提高自己的竞争力，Cboe去年曾放宽交易规则并制定新的定价方式，但都没能吸引到更多的投资者；最后几个月Cboe比特币期货交易量甚至不及CME的十分之一。\n\n\n\n至于今天，也就是Cboe比特币期货XBT的最后一次结算，从目前来看市场依旧没有给予其多大反应——最近几天BTC价格一直保持横盘状态，日内涨跌幅不多于4%；看来在与XBT告别的同时，我们也能宣布Cboe交割日效应正式失效。\n\n\n![微信截图_20181109155558.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZU6Lq1T3YTw2JayHZ8vQVEmCqqspbFDCk7jkFNam3UDW/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_20181109155558.png)\n\n※更多精彩内容，请关注哈希派公众号获取",
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      "body": "![11111.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZPK2rt3u2Ko66jipfiVjTscgBXYSHCZhEW9XK2yL6Qer/11111.png)\n\n作者 | 哈希派 - LucyCheng\n\n\n\n最近的币圈\n\n把孙宇晨送去见巴菲特；\n\n将Kik派去和SEC正面硬刚；\n\n让CSW声明比特币白皮书版权……\n\n\n![image001.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmW3XwfvffRktGobEEJ3vUCDUmjoT5m9QYNLnXDusmGSA4/image001.png)\n\n 截图源自：Mythos资本创始人Ryan Sean Adams的推特\n\n\n\n看到这个哏里面的组合我和原作者Rayn一样，第一感觉就是不靠谱。因为细究起来，这三个分别开创了币圈先河的「天选之子」着实存在不少争议；比如我们今天要讲的Kik，就不是加密行业迎战SEC的最佳选择。\n\n\n\n问题缠身，Kik也是自身难保\n\n近段时间美国证券交易委员会与Kik Interactive Inc.长达两年的斗争，在后者坚决不承认自己是证券型代币以及集资反抗的主动挑衅之下，SEC终于忍不住对其出手，于美国时间6月4日正式就1C0起诉这家加拿大即时通讯软件公司。\n\n\n![image002.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmc8i3uKkVYAV16hX2oR9cxEofHUVwUZXsbEzU61hRK6xi/image002.png)\n截图源自：SEC对Kik的起诉书（https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/2019/comp-pr2019-87.pdf）\n\n\n\n通读49页起诉书，哈希派为大家大致提炼出SEC对Kik的主要指控，\n\n\n\n· 经营不利，无奈转型：2016到2017年间，Kik因经营不利面临资金危机；在多次寻求收购方无果后，该公司于2017年初急迫转型，试图通过销售一万亿枚Kin代币来填补资金缺口。\n\n· 承诺盈利，激励投资：为此2017年中旬，Kik CEO将其代币Kin作为投资机会在多个场合进行营销，并承诺随着需求的增加将推高Kin的价值；同时该公司还在社交媒体多次透露已与部分交易所谈妥，Kin发行后会立即在二级市场交易……而在SEC看来，这种基于他人努力的未来利润就是证券发行的标志。\n\n· 确为证券，知情不报：不仅如此，Kik高管与法律顾问曾咨询安大略省证券委员会，在被后者明确告知其发行的代币属于证券后，Kik禁止加拿大人公开购买Kin。据资料显示，双方交谈期间还提及豪威测试，但Kik并没有与SEC进行沟通，发币期间也没有限制美国地区投资者的参与（虽然有些州被禁止）。\n\n· 仓促建立应用，只为看起来合规：更有趣的是，为了让项目看起来合规，将其发行的代币尽量往消费性使用靠拢，Kik发行代币前还在其应用内添加了新的卡通表情包功能；但投资者直至代币销售结束后才得知该功能尚未开发完全，而且无法使用Kin来购买。\n\n\n简单来说就是，Kik明知道自己发行的代币属于证券范围也没有按规向SEC注册，并试图添加未开发完全的应用来让代币发售看起来合规。 \n\n\n![image003.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQPvGrdGnBaW5dB9gyB5gp4cqNuEF6U2vcDGeYwfzdGX3/image003.png)\n诉讼书内关于Kik表情包应用的描述\n\n\n\n实际上，夸大收益、隐瞒公司财务状况等等都是1C0市场司空见惯的做法，也是SEC指控相关项目的常用理由，而且一告一个准；比如早前已与SEC达成和解并诚实补缴各种罚款的加密货币银行AriseBank、区块链初创公司Titanium等等都是因为涉嫌虚假宣传被起诉。不过这次SEC对Kik的起诉理由并不是几乎百发百中的虚假宣传，而是指控其没有按照联邦《证券法》要求对代币发行以及销售进行登记注册。\n\n\n\n这类指控涉及一个关键性问题——1C0是否属于证券。虽然该问题如今还存在很大争议，但是从目前SEC给出的证据，以及早前“Blockvest LLC的改判事件”来看，现阶段想要法院认可Kik不是证券很难。\n\n\n\n不过更为重要的是，Kik没有足够的精力以及财力与SEC战斗到底。通常情况下，这类诉讼具有五年有效诉讼期；也就是说接下来SEC将有大把时间搜集证据证明Kik的代币发行属于证券发行。而且值得一提的是，独立法律研究员Katherine Wu在给诉讼书写批注的时候表示，撰写诉状的Stephan Schlegelmilch和David Mendel为该部门的高级诉讼律师，可见SEC对此次事件的重视程度颇高。\n\n ![image004.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQme27DffPtjzpFDYbYjMwWEi32PQhf5PpiTp9A6xwueTgS/image004.png)\n※Kik发起的DefendCrypto已获得ShapeShift、Messari等公司的联名响应；不过早前表示支持Kik的Circle以及Coinbase已悄悄从列表内消失（截图源自：defendcrypto.org）\n\n\n\n反观Kik，即便通过专门网站Defend Crypto发起了500万美元的加密众筹活动，但在这类案件辩护律师费动不动就要上千美元一小时的收费标准下，Kik想要和SEC打持久战的资金远远不够。而这或许也是早前绝大部分被起诉项目，选择补交罚款或者主动注册成为证券等和解方式的原因之一。\n\n\n\n诉讼是否成功，并不是重点\n\n说实话，这次的Kik事件无论从证据还是诉讼理由方面都没有什么新进展，与早前的代币发行起诉案大同小异，而且胜算不高；但不妨碍市场对此次事件的关注，因为Kik势要与SEC对簿公堂的做法，让我们将关注的焦点放到了“1C0是否属于证券”的争辩之上。\n\n\n\n如前美国司法部的联邦检察官Katie Haun发文所说，Kik与SEC进入威尔斯进程让后者考虑是否采取原计划执法活动时，本因私下进行且通常会表达出对方不应提起诉讼的观点。但Kik并没有这么做，而是将该进程中提交的回复公开，并正面向SEC提出质疑。\n\n\n\n具体来说，该公司借着今年年初与社交娱乐应用程序MadLipz、在线论坛平台Tapatalk等等App的积极合作，向SEC强调——他们的加密货币“Kin”为消费品，专注于使用；且公司与Kin购买者之间不存在共同企业；为此不具备证券特征。这种公开的做法，在一定程度上给SEC施加了压力，敦促他们正面回答关于豪威测试是否符合加密行业、如何划分哪些数字货币属于证券哪些不是等问题；而这也正是市场期待已久的答案。\n\n \n![image005.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeb3PqW1CyMZjDyRsu48XB4fTP2h8g5E9YkFU83Lhpcbq/image005.png)\n注：豪威测试表明，只要满足一下情况则被视为证券：（1）投资资金；（2）共同且；（3）通过他人努力获得利润预期。（截图源自：Katie Haun的文章）\n\n\n\n虽然去年SEC主席Jay Clayton在公开场合声称所有初始代币都是证券，并在此后一年时间里针对数字资产发行方采取了30多次执法行动；但是涉及其中的执法项目大都涉嫌欺诈，而不仅仅是发行未注册这一问题。随后SEC又推出了「数字资产产品指南」，试图通过简单明了的语言概述其判断数字货币是否属于受监管投资合约的程序；但该指引实际上只是把70年前的豪威测试拆分为一个40多项的原因列表。此外，同时引入的所谓「活跃参与者」全新概念，则把豪威测试的范围进一步扩大，甚至超出了美国最高法院的司法解释范围。\n\n\n\n这意味着，截至目前为止SEC对于如何划分数字货币是否属于证券这一问题依旧没有说清楚；而SEC对行业的态度是什么，市场也主要是靠猜。“当我们和业内人士交流时，总会谈到‘SEC怎么想’，我们要停止活在这种恐惧当中。我们都知道加密技术是下一个大趋势，但我们在全球舞台上给自己带来了根本性障碍，想要明白SEC怎么想，唯一的方法就是去法庭”，Kik CEO Ted Livingston在接受采访时如是说道。\n\n\n\nSEC表态才是我们想要的结果\n\n所以说，这次起诉案的裁决结果不是市场关注的焦点，对于支持者以及围观群众来说，借着这次机会试探SEC的想法，敦促其进一步表态才是关键。正如美国执法辩护律师Jake Chervinsky表达的观点，这是2019年加密证券法律世界内最重要的事情，比SEC的任何指导方针或者拟议的立法都重要。SEC一直声称数字代币是有价证券，但这次他们要需要在法庭上证明这一点。\n\n\n\n确实从SEC向联邦法院而非地方法院提起诉讼看来，这次事件无疑会给市场带来一定的透明度。但按照该部门主席Jay Clayton对于加密领域一贯的拖延做法以及强硬的监管态度，SEC不会轻易给出明确的划分定义。回溯历史，Jay Clayton在去年年末已经挑明了SEC在2019年对区块链、数字资产以及代币发行的强监管态度，并再次强调代币发行的新技术性质并没有改变基本观点，且必须遵守证券法。由此看来，2019年监管势在必行；但在领域还处于摸索阶段的现如今，SEC不会贸然推出适用于加密货币的豪威测试，而且对SEC以及大部分业内人士而言，Kik也不是测试的最佳先行案例。\n\n\n\n虽然说明确划分标准出现的概率很低，但从诉讼书里面我们还是能嗅到一些未来动向。该诉讼书里面多次强调，无实际产品以及没有去中心化经济的存在是Kik被归类为证券的主要原因。再加上早前SEC公司财务总监William Hinman在演讲中发表的观点——只要加密货币足够“去中心化”，就不会受美国证券交易委员会对证券的定义约束；我们是否可以认为，只要有实际产品且项目去中心化达到一定程度，就不能被定义为证券，也不受SEC监管。\n\n![image006.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWRJY5U559spqkVnRxCpkqJCCqv2xddiYrbB7LGvUkvD6/image006.png)\n注：SEC表示，Kik没有实现分散经济的情况下推行代币发行，而且没有确保投资者能够使用代币购买应用内的商品以及服务。（截图源自：诉讼书第26页）\n\n\n\n如果SEC能够在法庭内对上述问题表明态度，对于加密行业监管来说就是一次很大的进步，起码符合相关条件的项目不用再担心会收到SEC的传票；而想要在美国地区开启代币发行的新项目也能知道如何规避风险。\n\n\n\n反正就像CNBC加密货币节目主持人Ran NeuNer说的，“SEC对Kik提起诉讼对于加密货币来说有百利而无一害”。而我们所能祈祷的就是，Kik有足够的资金和精力在这场漫长的官司里撑得更远。\n\n\n\n\n\n参考资料\n\n[1]《SEC 发起诉讼，细数 KiK“七宗罪”》，奇点财经SFL\n\n[2]《Annotated Guide to the SEC's Complaint against KIK》，Katherine Wu\n\n[3]《Kik and the SEC: What’s Going On and What Does It Mean for Crypto?》，Katie Haun\n\n[4]《The SEC Can’t Keep Kik-ing the Crypto Can Down the Road》，Coindesk\n\n\n\n![微信截图_20181109155558.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZU6Lq1T3YTw2JayHZ8vQVEmCqqspbFDCk7jkFNam3UDW/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_20181109155558.png)\n\n※更多精彩内容，请关注哈希派公众号或点击阅读原文获取",
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      "body": "![XRP1.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWSQNrbRYb1bw2cbPc3ZW4YC7N96RfHSL6979rDYGyXt7/XRP1.png)\n作者 | 哈希派 - 不碎\n文章字数：2100字左右\n阅读时间：约3分钟\n\n\n\n\n\n\n一直注重合规化迟迟不愿意上线XRP的coinbase，昨天上午宣布，现在纽约的用户可以在该平台交易瑞波币了，于是XRP结束近半年的横盘，顺势上涨22%。\n\n\n\n但几乎是同时，纽约金融服务部门NYDFS以保护企业隐私避免影响企业竞争地位为由，驳回了加密货币数据公司Messari创始人Ryan Selkis关于要求披露XRP II公司销售XRP具体情况的申请。\n\n\n\n高涨的投机情绪似乎冲淡了大家对瑞波币中心化程度的质疑，手握瑞波总量60%的Ripple公司在XRP价格走势中扮演了什么样的角色，依旧成迷。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n1\n\n\n\n\n进入2019年，矿工、散户、机构投资者们都在蠢蠢欲动，久违的躁动重新笼罩了币市，币价越发扑朔迷离了。\n\n\n\n从年初至今，在看涨情绪的带动下，比特币价格上涨近120%，加密货币总市值翻了一翻，但以BTC计价的竞争币市值却在三月之后跌去了38%。几个月来，大多竞争币价格波动不定，唯独瑞波以日收益波动2.9%的数据，刷新了2013年最后一个季度以来波动性第二低的记录。\n\n\n\n加密货币分析师Peter brandt在自己的推特上发布了一张XRP价格的走势图，并配文说：“庄家的动力在这个巨大的下降三角中发挥了作用，这说明市场是被操纵的，操纵者将价格维持在了一个相对稳定的水平。”\n\n\n\n![1.1.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmckQqg44ghsT3RCszUx9MfUFNUHnvdWSgVoJewBkVg3if/1.1.png)\n\n图片来源：Peter brandt推特\n\n\n\n为了考证这一说法，哈希派开始翻找Ripple官方地址的过往交易记录，于是我们发现了几个可疑的地址。\n\n\n\n\n![1.2.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmP7KfpmzKdBCqMZKy4gHhUEEuMQecxDDyqVGn6fA4KJAv/1.2.png)\n\n\n2018年底，ripple官方共向地址1、2中转入了2.4亿枚XRP\n\n\n![1.3.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUvgrS6rnLAcb3UsMpkLk4HwiYmUrjs7EzXcV7ezB8iPC/1.3.png)\n\n\n\n\n并将全部代币转入地址3中\n\n\n\n![1.4.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQK4w4q5x3gaPmFUpsidnVWp677QwXm5Jmw5SnME4my73/1.4.png)\n\n\n\n随后经地址5、6转向地址4\n\n\n![1.5.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZhLJ9bJk61KdPzELVJaLjah3bU6CFzSuW4JyXkgKbrpd/1.5.png)\n\n\n\n\n其中有1.9亿枚XRP通过地址4流向交易所\n\n![1.6.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVaBbsN4YdKCYhgwd7hKLYWxo1CghKwEaShhm3d3r9s8E/1.6.png)\n\n\n\n\n\n在ripple公司公布的第一季度销售报告中表明，第一季度他们一共只卖出了xrp流通总量中的0.32%，即1.72亿枚代币，其中机构直接出售的数量约为0.63亿。很显然上述1.9亿XRP的交易并没有被包括在内。\n\n\n\n从5月7日至今的一周时间内，又有3140万枚XRP转入地址4并流向了不同的交易所。而这，只不过是ripple庞大销售网络中的冰山一角。\n\n\n\n在查阅交易记录的过程中，哈希派发现了Ripple用来出售XRP的地址之一：r49yezViZ8N6FtwwKg9byDYtJ3UDuJi1zv\n\n\n\n![1.7.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZHmraqpi5UkTtb92mXJPC3Xc6d7ZcuXP4w3wc54uDguH/1.7.png)\n\n\n\n据不完全统计，从18年4月至今的一年时间内，至少有10.62亿XRP从瑞波官方地址转出，通过以1zv结尾的地址流入了交易所。\n\n\n\n越是追查越是发现，Peter brandt的分析似乎得到了某种印证。按照Peter brandt的后续推测，XRP市场没有足够的力量进一步反弹，操纵者只会越来越绝望；但市场分析最实际的作用就是用来被打脸的，XRP并没有走出预期的态势，反而一路直线上涨。\n\n\n\n![1.8.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbMym53BCnK5P2vBzsa5WZ8csVWLpLi2Vv5E25mASDnfv/1.8.png)\n\n\n\n而除了通过以1zv结尾的地址出售代币之外，还有5.76亿的XRP从瑞波官方转出，通过不同地址直接转进了交易所。\n\n\n\n这些被卖出代币的总量不过是官方公布数据的3.7倍而已。事实证明，币圈的真相大概比靠谱的行情分析还要稀缺。\n\n\n\n另经粗略统计，最近一周内通过上述相关地址，至少又有1亿代币以不同方式出售给了交易所。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n2\n\n\n\n\n除了Ripple公司，另一个大量持有XRP的群体就是Ripple公司的创始团队。\n\n\n![1.9.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPbs3jPzkL5NpwqZ8rrCBLG1J7YB5jo7BkcoBP4xaQ5CG/1.9.png)\n\n\n截止2015年Ripple公司大概持有70%左右的XRP，创始团队持有20%\n\n\n\n2018年1月，XRP的价格飙升50000%正处于巅峰状态，此时持有52亿XRP的Ripple创始人Chris Larsen，以80亿美元的身价成为首位上榜胡润富豪榜的加密货币富豪，福布斯认为他是区块链行业最富有的人。\n\n\n\n然而在之后的几个月时间，XRP价格一落千丈，Ripple公司也因此被投资者以操纵市场的罪名告上了法庭，至今尚未有结论。而Chris Larsen的身家亦随之缩水75%。\n\n\n\n出于对曾经币圈首富的敬畏，我们顺手查了查Chris Larsen的交易记录，发现：\n\n\n![2.0.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmd4XPBein5NugzkYMaXits5yooLU6t4MYWx5z7K1uUWQj/2.0.png)\n\n\n部分中间地址省略，完整版见附录（后台回复“附录”获取相关地址信息）\n\n\n\n一年时间内，从Chris Larsen个人地址转出，流向交易所的XRP超过了9亿枚。\n\n\n\n瑞波CTO David Schwartz今年4月初在论坛上回答了网友关于“Ripple是否控制着XRP”的提问，他信誓旦旦的说：\n\n\n\n “XRP是一项独立的数字资产，不是任何个人或实体可以控制的。”\n\n\n毕竟，承认瑞波币的中心化属性会得罪那么多付出真金白银的投资人，甚至还可能被扣上证券的帽子。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n3\n\n\n\n\n然而，在为瑞波币申辩了不到半个月之后，David Schwartz就一边鼓吹XRP值得，一边卖掉了自己手中的280万枚XRP，他说“我不能把鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里”。\n\n\n\n面对网友的质疑，他回应称：“我大部分的流动性资产是XRP，大部分的非流动性资产是瑞波的股票，环境已经把我置于无法接受的风险之中了。在我第一次决定投资时，我和我的妻子达成了一项消除风险的策略，以防止我们破产，并且我也一直带着些许悲伤在遵循这一策略。”\n\n\n\n其言之诚恳，要不是因为他在2018年高位套现一千多万，哈希派差点就要相信他了。\n\n\n![2.1.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbamBEDNB4rQFbt9zYUpKWb7f7JpFyRGMjwtPL7WBxnzE/2.1.png)\n\n\nDavid Schwartz在2017年4月至2018年2月期间共出售1346万枚XRP，约合1814万美元\n\n\n\n事到如今，谁还会认为过去几次XRP价格的涨跌完全是市场的结果？\n\n\n\n瑞波币的投资者Scout早就在XRP聊天室里说过：“人们普遍认为价格是一个复杂的过程，但事实并非如此。实际上谁能控制资产分配变量谁就能操纵价格，这绝对不是魔法，只是一个计算程序，根据人为的输入来处理这些数字，就像每个人都知道，XRP的价值超过30美分，但它的价格却始终维持不变。这就是加密货币的时代。”\n\n\n\n我们只需要耐心等待有人来把XRP的价格定高一点，在此之前请善待这个定价的人。\n\n\n迫切想要看见收益的投资者总是缺乏耐心和记忆的，所以只要掌握了足够多的筹码，无论是谁都有可能将买币之人玩弄于股掌之上。很多投机者自然会认为，有庄家拉盘总好过一潭死水，但霍金说过即便相信了命中注定，过马路的时候我们也还是要左右看看的。\n\n\n※更多精彩内容，请关注哈希派公众号或点击阅读原文获取",
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      "author": "cheetah",
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      "body": "![微信图片_20190418094427.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWcN762aC2DFSHf73WrPeNigCAkPX8X2bdwtBi4honnjN/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%87_20190418094427.jpg)\n作者 | 哈希派分析团队\n![1.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZtQdDQ9UrzC6RFp4CZsBZG6RFZjTaYiTo2fBeKyhoZNm/1.png)\n![1.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYEVAt69iKuNmvxGvjK7XpBRfUeaog7sKR22njwjb7rwX/1.jpg)\n![2.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWDQxSw6NY3QrJYNugBs8okRhh2waVzB5iKY5PWPLcXi8/2.png)\n![2.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbKNCGhqNsKWopXEE7Wud7XcV52zVywh4DyZbVSDG1a5i/2.jpg)\n![3.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmX1r8NHcVqGooHiDg7jHetU9yU1SyUn7pTZijyUwoEGcu/3.png)\n![3.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeQJ6mf83X6XHuuZ3bB35qGMz3K5TX5JYhQLXukUAVjXh/3.jpg)\n![4.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ7tHyPQ871xqwvnfGnAfaZVoneCmmuGjzXSnfdWZcUVp/4.png)\n![4.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZ671zCaVCc46cV1vtoe3YQ7d3ewi4Zi6jLCkiry9Pe5A/4.jpg)\n![5.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSjuPfBP11ZxLkhGJEz9Vm167VhnEG3wehtpP1FvSNpMo/5.png)\n![5.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZMgzBf3SmDkQXGrhr1JRFfA7Ychxcp4r6BNPmRHvxDHY/5.jpg)\n![6.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRcjt8gR2kfvL8T3ByFeKUDFnyuKV5Ys8HVJTGbtM8kTG/6.png)\n![6.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTXkrEt2QzRjoXyQmBYcjC27VA5KRYNrdDomDf6UjHz2U/6.jpg)\n![7.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZYqntgau98NnbKsSmitKRRyFKvKzCS4G2NgjF9pynd5q/7.png)\n![7.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNXcZ18uWb41bgBhfNHxKhSsU93uwNhfad1qRZ7kGjFwY/7.jpg)\n![8.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSQgQ6kFdMTNguusGBM9g3cpzXg32CnstsQ5WCTAhyPMY/8.png)\n![8.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWd472nxQ4BM456StyNnbqjPG284xNuqiGXnUu7ujyGyU/8.jpg)\n往期回顾：BTC本月首次放量下跌，阶段性顶部出现\n![微信图片_20190418094517.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmayj1zasuZXqbgxNAerzSiKV22oqqm6qGoAEZeBSo77zA/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%87_20190418094517.jpg)\n※回顾昨日行情分析、获取更多精彩内容，请关注哈希派公众号或点击阅读原文获取",
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      "body": "![微信图片_20190418094427.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWcN762aC2DFSHf73WrPeNigCAkPX8X2bdwtBi4honnjN/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%87_20190418094427.jpg)\n作者 | 哈希派分析团队\n![1.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZtQdDQ9UrzC6RFp4CZsBZG6RFZjTaYiTo2fBeKyhoZNm/1.png)\n![1.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPEVm1ZzvxGWrV6NmkFHpZg4ma54vwwNx5eHv8esLd7V1/1.jpg)\n![2.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWDQxSw6NY3QrJYNugBs8okRhh2waVzB5iKY5PWPLcXi8/2.png)\n![2.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNrjsnU75RcBXKnucMecjt637DyeDhji9zYSeGHbjDjMY/2.jpg)\n![3.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmX1r8NHcVqGooHiDg7jHetU9yU1SyUn7pTZijyUwoEGcu/3.png)\n![3.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVL7MkWXXzJCuamYG4e4UwEMweZmiB5U3n9FNk3MwQuEf/3.jpg)\n![4.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ7tHyPQ871xqwvnfGnAfaZVoneCmmuGjzXSnfdWZcUVp/4.png)\n![4.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmchkXoZt62kjrQWtoyKxnkcKfhE8NyFKgQZ3idc25reut/4.jpg)\n![5.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSjuPfBP11ZxLkhGJEz9Vm167VhnEG3wehtpP1FvSNpMo/5.png)\n![5.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTdsEX2sidqGcajdUpB1Y9yyf7y9foNRssRYEaB7CmqT7/5.jpg)\n![6.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRcjt8gR2kfvL8T3ByFeKUDFnyuKV5Ys8HVJTGbtM8kTG/6.png)\n![6.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNkP89hMsaK2rXjxMJEktbJAY3XmMYS4vpzcS7Ks761Nr/6.jpg)\n![7.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZYqntgau98NnbKsSmitKRRyFKvKzCS4G2NgjF9pynd5q/7.png)\n![7.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZP7VpLMN1oRMRoDNEN8g8rdJvP6MFukQZn3DZe51JMS2/7.jpg)\n![8.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSQgQ6kFdMTNguusGBM9g3cpzXg32CnstsQ5WCTAhyPMY/8.png)\n![8.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmd3rnvDNhk5NseZuKPdToCVMFMNt8nYzq6qW7VgCBZadJ/8.jpg)\n往期回顾：BTC本月首次放量下跌，阶段性顶部出现\n![微信图片_20190418094517.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmayj1zasuZXqbgxNAerzSiKV22oqqm6qGoAEZeBSo77zA/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%87_20190418094517.jpg)\n※回顾昨日行情分析、获取更多精彩内容，请关注哈希派公众号或点击阅读原文获取",
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      "body": "!cheetah ban\nFailed authorship verification.",
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      "body": "![11111.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQni24fGMQu9dpJSdTjbK3t9XR8SDqRKG9yPScSaEAdwy/11111.png)\n作者 | 哈希派 - LucyCheng\n文章字数：1300字左右\n阅读时间：约1分钟\n\n\n\n\n\n昨日早间七点半左右，一则公告打破了币圈早晨的宁静。\n\n\n\n币安在其官网上发文承认，北京时间5月8日凌晨1:15:24，该交易所遭受攻击，黑客在区块高度575012处从其热钱包盗走7000枚比特币（折合人民币2.7亿元）。\n\n\n![image001.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQme47b2ucPdb4V9BfWyQbnKRp7V61KDiCwQCeRjmnyU4mo/image001.png)\n\n\n\n\n注：昨日凌晨三点左右，币安创始人赵长鹏发推文表示，币安不得不进行一些计划外的服务维护，这将影响存款以及取款几个小时。不过资金是安全的，交易也不会受影响。该推文发布不到四小时，币安便在其官网上发布公告承认交易所被盗。\n\n\n\n消息一经曝出，比特币价格瞬间下挫。根据Coinmarketcap的数据显示，5月8日7点34分比特币价格从5954美元迅速下滑至日内最低点5759美元，跌幅超3%。\n\n\n\n![image002.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUkoiiYiJsSrScD5fxhN6v4JoDVQcn8Y7gnYUu587v2Au/image002.png)\n\n\n\n图片截自：Coinmarketcap\n\n\n\n币安平台币BNB价格也在一小时内直线下跌近9%，至周内最低点19.88美元。另外，其他加密货币的价格均有不同程度的下滑，截至昨日下午五点，市值前100的主流货币中超八成出现下跌。\n\n \n\n\n![image004.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaFUZso6sdTJvEWXZWFWFefwq41ZkNdyavFFoo675Zx7U/image004.png)\n\n\n图片截自：Coinmarketcap\n\n\n\n虽然这是币安首次公开承认平台发生被盗事件，但是该交易所出现安全问题并引发币市“失血”已经不是第一次了。去年第一季度，币安一个月内连续两次出现安全事故：\n\n\n\n2018年2月8日凌晨币安发生严重宕机，事件造成平台无法正常服务长达60小时，直至2月11日才完成恢复\n\n而后不到一个月时间币安再次遭受攻击，3月7日凌晨黑客盗用若干币安账户，将当时价值约1万BTC的加密货币全部换为比特币，然后高价买入VIA，操控币价从而获利。\n\n\n\n其中三月份那次攻击，导致当时市值排名前十的数字货币全线下滑，24小时内跌幅皆高于6%。而比特币价格更是跌破10000美元大关，日内跌幅超11%；并且在接下来的一个月内持续阴跌至6628美元，月累积跌幅高达29%。同样的，ETH、LTC、XRP等部分主流加密货币也在此期间呈现出下跌趋势。\n\n![image006.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXEYZudafJw6BLsYPB5bg1VEYUPyTvdxUNXRSZDaYyVou/image006.png)\n\n图片截自：Coinmarketcap\n\n\n\n至于上一次攻击事件则发生在2018年7月4日凌晨五点，当日币安出现异常超大额提现，两小时内累积有7000逾枚比特币被转入同一地址。经调查后发现，和三月份的攻击相似，黑客借助SYS的漏洞实施51%攻击，紧接着使用API交易机器人操纵币价，将SYS推高近一倍；同时通过其他交易所出货，期间至少套利8000万美元。\n\n\n\n受此影响，比特币价格于当日早间六点左右快速下挫，不到一小时时间内从6638美元跌去近3%，至日内最低点6447美元。之后一周时间内，比特币价格下滑至6406美元，跌幅约为3%。此外BNB价格也在不到一周时间内下滑十五个百分点。\n\n\n\n回顾之前几次安全事故不难发现，币安遭受攻击短期内对市场的伤害还是很大的，首当其冲的比特币和BNB，价格皆应声下跌，并且在一段时间内保持下降趋势。\n\n\n\n反观这次盗币事件，虽然比特币从昨日八点半左右便开始回血，今早七点价格已稳步回升至约5976美元的水平；但是在经过一个多月的连续上涨后，谁也不敢说比特币会在哪个节点突然开始出现连续的下跌回调。\n\n\n\n\n![image008.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQmRsdBJJWbC6EY9LkhtpyAdGdMYzbaD3jrcd1uV15xqt/image008.png)\n\n\n 图片截自：Coinmarketcap\n\n\n\n抛开恐慌情绪先不谈；被黑客盗走的7000多枚比特币就是一个不可忽略的隐藏风险。不同于上两次结合推高小币种价格并快速套利的操作，这次黑客直接从币安热钱包中盗取比特币，所以事件对比特币价格的后续影响将不如前两次及时。如果接下来黑客把被盗的比特币直接转入交易所变现，市场可能会出现较大的抛压。\n\n\n\n而就目前PeckShield的追踪数据来看，被盗的7074枚比特币尚未扩散。除了昨日下午五点零九分被转入两个新地址的1226 BTC外，其他比特币都被暂时存放在18个主要地址内。 \n\n\n币安被盗会成为比特币站稳6000美元最大的阻力吗？\n\n\n※更多精彩内容，请关注哈希派公众号或点击阅读原文获取",
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      "author": "steemcleaners",
      "body": "Hello,\nWelcome to Steemit.\n\nIn order to confirm your authorship of the content, please make a mention of Steemit or add a hyperlink to Steemit on your profile: \n\nhttps://www.chainfor.com/home/member/articles.html?authorId=357\n\nYou can remove this mention from your website, once we confirm the authorship.\n\nThank you.\n\nMore Info: <a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemcleaners/@steemcleaners/introducing-identity-content-verification-reporting-and-lookup\">Introducing Identity/Content Verification Reporting & Lookup</a>",
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      "body": "![微信图片_20190418094427.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWcN762aC2DFSHf73WrPeNigCAkPX8X2bdwtBi4honnjN/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%87_20190418094427.jpg)\n作者 | 哈希派分析团队\n![1.1.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZtQdDQ9UrzC6RFp4CZsBZG6RFZjTaYiTo2fBeKyhoZNm/1.1.png)\n![1.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdd6XML2ApRtpokHwuyoUegA63kKuoa9nz6NDPBcHBy71/1.jpg)\n![1.2.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWDQxSw6NY3QrJYNugBs8okRhh2waVzB5iKY5PWPLcXi8/1.2.png)\n![2.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdMKbjHpjZWBeMxTfKphUy8XRRmveLxRfbkEbhiMvXJhT/2.jpg)\n![1.3.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmX1r8NHcVqGooHiDg7jHetU9yU1SyUn7pTZijyUwoEGcu/1.3.png)\n![3.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmU1KhT2xNnk3XQG5zU744SFU1Aw1VMwQbz32mceWSKSLr/3.jpg)\n![1.4.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ7tHyPQ871xqwvnfGnAfaZVoneCmmuGjzXSnfdWZcUVp/1.4.png)\n![4.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmP6f3JJCigLrt3oMEmKmzxEXqYKG7p1o2U3m6NBsXxdWJ/4.jpg)\n![1.5.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSjuPfBP11ZxLkhGJEz9Vm167VhnEG3wehtpP1FvSNpMo/1.5.png)\n![5.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmc9bXkHADHLMJPH9KpGhGSoXaFqZR4qjy1bHVBCedDJnE/5.jpg)\n![1.6.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRcjt8gR2kfvL8T3ByFeKUDFnyuKV5Ys8HVJTGbtM8kTG/1.6.png)\n![6.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWuC4AEGkKKyLUqL4piPMZeBZs68vA6eSgFvBuLS6E2ag/6.jpg)\n![1.7.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZYqntgau98NnbKsSmitKRRyFKvKzCS4G2NgjF9pynd5q/1.7.png)\n![7.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTfsaB6JRLCpykej3yQpyp6L1GB9jh4UVJo4QmPtTei2T/7.jpg)\n![1.8.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSQgQ6kFdMTNguusGBM9g3cpzXg32CnstsQ5WCTAhyPMY/1.8.png)\n![8.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPgcWkoGfdA9x56MS4NJeP2S3EWapyrQLo1c6dfJTBmBd/8.jpg)\n往期回顾：BTC强势回涨高位，但日线指标已背离\n![微信图片_20190418094517.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmayj1zasuZXqbgxNAerzSiKV22oqqm6qGoAEZeBSo77zA/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%87_20190418094517.jpg)\n※回顾昨日行情分析、获取更多精彩内容，请关注哈希派公众号或点击阅读原文获取",
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      "permlink": "57hfhq-btc",
      "title": "行情分析：BTC高位震荡，周线已到压力位"
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      "author": "hashpai",
      "body": "![1b30951858fb25b7f642195b72c0530.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSS7io27jQLaMKLom3ktaQE1zK6Sau9DXrMQycaoyRjiq/1b30951858fb25b7f642195b72c0530.png)\n作者 | 哈希派 - LucyCheng\n文章字数：3800字左右\n阅读时间：约4分钟\n\n\n\n“未来几个月内数字货币的真正变化不太可能是价格或者迅速的大规模采用，而是基础设施”，早前商业作家兼投资者Aaron Brown在彭博社专栏上如是写道。\n\n\n\n在他看来，现阶段整个行业更应该重点关注的是将会在2019年实现主网上线的「中间件」项目——\n\n \n\n![image001.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSqVQKo6q5S1HcYaYN8vMgjhs79U2yxq11DyXNKCK9t3H/image001.png)\n\n\n\n\n\n要实现跨链互操作的Cosmos、声称可一键发链的PolkaDot、试图解决公链“不可能三角”的Nervos，和专注于代理重加密技术的NuCypher。\n\n\n\n表面看来，这四个项目的着重点各不相同，但从某种意义上来说都属于Layer 2基础设施，目的是从不同的方面将其他区块链或者说加密思想互相连接起来。至于具体怎么实现这个问题，下文将用比喻的方式来为大家一一说明。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n从前有座山，山里有条村……\n\n\n![image002.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmesz9qS1871fkev1eotzqQCRd6MRUwzckEi6ai7kD81Vp/image002.jpg)\n\n\n图片源自新华社资料图，图文无关\n\n\n\n首先，我们可以把区块链行业想象成由多个村庄组成的世界。在这里有捕鱼为生的渔村、以纺织、耕种或者生产陶器为主的村庄……各个村子的村民通力合作完成某些任务以获取分配收益，同时村民与村民、村民与其他村子的村民之间还会进行产物交换，从而实现商品流通。\n\n\n\n为了让整个流通过程变得安全、可靠，区块链世界里面还有一种自己不从事生产劳动，只提供记账服务的村子。与过去传统的信任中心化记账组织不同，这种特色村庄的村民人手一个账本，可独立完成记账。而全世界的人们只要满足一定的准入条件，都能成为村庄的村民，拿着自己的账本提供相关服务。\n\n\n\n这就是区块链世界里面特有的去中心化记账方法。\n\n\n\n由于村民之间大都彼此陌生，再加上村庄本有的准入门槛，很难出现村民们大规模造假的情况。而且村庄的内部设定也在一定程度上限制了村民的造假动机，因为村民们诚实记账获得的收益要高于发动攻击作假赚取的利润。如此看来，这类村庄提供的分布式账本的信任程度还是蛮高的。\n\n\n\n而我们熟知的以太坊、EOS等等公链项目就是这样的村庄；它们引导各自的村民，带着自己的账本，帮助其他村庄记账。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n外勤和内勤组配合工作的Nervos\n\n和以太坊一样，Nervos也是提供记账服务的公链村庄；但是不同于各个村民都需携带完整账本参与记账全过程的前者，Nervos通过分工的方式来完成。\n\n\n\n该村的村民们被分成内勤和外勤两组人员；其中内勤组的任务是保存历史数据，确保账本安全可靠；而外勤组则游走于各个村庄之间，执行交易记录、订单生成、结余计算等等复杂操作。\n\n\n\n![image003.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdtqTzXoZdxzmJt268owpQtyVZcDNmVQgPDE8GG9hDQQx/image003.png)\n\n\n\n\n\n这种分工合作的方式取决于Nervos设计的分层架构，网络由基础层Nervos CKB以及应用层组成。两个架构层之间的关系可类比以太坊与Layer2方案雷电网络，所以说Nervos是自带二层扩容方案的公链项目；它试图通过分层，一次到位，平衡公链的“不可能三角”问题。\n\n \n\n![image004.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUWwHVYPAzCNi6zigz3k2RpJBpzeiW3E2WBDmARxSFu1Z/image004.jpg)\n\n\n\n\n\n作为基础层，Nervos CKB位于网络最底层，是整个信任链的根，不涉及业务，负责为应用层提供去中心化的状态共识存储服务，从而达成共识。而应用层则关注各个场景下的性能实现，进行剩余绝大部分的计算、存储、网络传输等复杂功能处理。只有在Layer2运营节点作恶或者出现争议交易时，应用层的用户才需要与基础层交互；届时Nervos CKB通过用户提交的证据、历史记录以及内部规则对交易进行仲裁，从而保障应用层的安全性和一致性。\n\n\n\n总的来说，基础层的目标是安全，应用层的目标是计算。如果没有任何异常交易需要基础层处理，在理想情况之下Nervos CKB的工作量将最小化，可在很大程度上提高网络吞吐量。\n\n\n\n另一方面，为了让Layer2更容易接入基础层，Nervos CKB采用了一种名为Cell的通用化UTXO新状态模型，也就是将只关心数字的UTXO扩展为能够保存任意数据类型的Cell。这种设计下，CKB不仅能存储资产状态还能记录Dapp等智能合约的共识结果，以支持基础层为Layer2提供的资产映射以及状态验证功能。至于该模型将链上存储空间作为公共资源交由原生代币持有者使用的做法，则在一定程度上减少了Dapp用户以及开发者的使用成本；因为状态存储成本可转嫁到其他独立用户身上，部分使用和开发者无需抵押大量原生代币也可发送及执行智能合约。\n\n\n\n不过现阶段，Nervos只推出了测试网络以及Layer2应用解决方案AppChain；两个构架层之间的交互等技术，依然在开发的路上。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n要实现「经济全球化」的Cosmos和PolkaDot\n\n抛开成本以及性能不谈，如果区块链世界只有一个提供记账服务的村庄；那么所有村庄也就是区块链经济体的帐将记录在一个账本之上，有便于实现任意村庄之间的经济活动。\n\n\n\n但现实并非如此，领域内有很多帮人记账的村庄，比如以太坊、EOS、Cardano和刚刚提到的Nervos。这些村庄之间的账本结构各不相同，如果渔村、纺织村或者其他村庄选择了不同的账本，它们之间就没办法交易了。\n\n\n\n为了连通各个经济体，达到「账本一体化」的效果，领域内出现了跨链项目；Cosmos和PolkaDot就是其中受关注度较高的明星项目，目标都是实现异构账本之间的互通及了解；不过两者使用的方法不尽相同。\n\n\n\n![image005.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXoNtwhw2jC6UNH3otEWy2kXnJzro3LXY4m9BTm5gBffU/image005.png)\n\n\n\n\n\n已先一步上线主网的Cosmos采用的方法是，为各个村庄提供一种统一规范的账本结构，让它们自行找人记录；而这种统一结构就是链与链之间的通信标准IBC，即Cosmos的跨链通信协议。\n\n\n\n目前还没正式部署到主网的IBC是免费且开源的，理论上来说，任何链只要采用这一标准，即便通信过程与Cosmos毫无联系，也能够相互沟通。但是为了更好地实现跨链，Cosmos网络还提供了作为中央枢纽的Hub；采用IBC标准的链（在Cosmos中被称为Zone），只要与Hub连通，便能在该枢纽的帮助下，与其他Zone相互连通。\n\n\n\n当然Cosmos的村民也会记账，但是他们不对Zone或者说整个系统的安全负责，只为不同村庄之间的通信服务，主要的任务是接听与传达各个Zone之间的信息；而这就是Hub起到的中转作用。\n\n\n\n与提供通用账本的Cosmos不同，PolkaDot是直接派一队村民到相应的村庄帮助他们建立账本记账，再通过总账本将所有账本连通起来。正因如此，Cosmos的跨链通信仅限于数字资产也就是代币的转移；而PolkaDot则在此基础之上，增加了合约间调用的功能，从某种意义上来说可实现任意信息的跨链通信。\n\n\n\nPolkaDot中的平行链可类比Cosmos的Zone；中继链可类比Hub，起到连接平行链的作用。但两者不同的是，平行链的账本以及记账人都由PolkaDot提供，它链上的区块由中继链给出的验证组进行验证及确定。\n\n\n\n为此平行链与平行链之间的通信不可能像采用IBC的Zone一样，脱离中继链而实现；各平行链的运算以及共识由中继链统一管理。简单来说，所有平行链的轻节点都集中在中继链上，而中继链的轻节点又包含在平行链内。各平行链之间互通，需要验证人将交易从源链接口接入中继链，再转移至目标链入口，从而实现跨链。\n\n\n\n如此说来，Cosmos和PolkaDot虽然同为各链的交互工具，但后者更像是披着跨链标签的多链账本结构；某种程度上与以太坊类似。\n\n\n\n不过除了跨链之外，Cosmos和PolkaDot还致力于实现一键发链。据了解，早前币安通过Cosmos的开发工具Cosmos SDK以及共识引擎Tendermint在较短时间内完成了Binance Chain的开发；而PolkaDot的创始人 Gavin Wood也在去年的Web3峰会上演示了15分钟快速发链的操作。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n保障你隐私安全的NuCypher\n\n上面提到的三个项目主要关注的是记账的问题，而NuCypher则是选择了以太坊帮忙记账的村庄，性质与渔村、纺织村等等类似，其生产产物是为其他村庄提供数据保密服务。\n\n \n\n![image006.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmT5349AdGybyqod81UXyGMoA2bV6JLEV9czs3Wqjem7UH/image006.png)\n\n\n\n\n\n分布式密钥管理平台是NuCypher的定位，其是建立在底层区块链之上的数据隐私协议，可帮助DApp进行安全信息共享。虽然该项目率先建立在以太坊网络，但也能为其他区块链上的Dapp所用。\n\n\n\n事实上，密钥管理系统的概念并不新鲜，早年间已由微软提出，且当前互联网内也有不少对加密数据进行可信第三方密钥管理的组织。虽然大都是中心化机构，但他们并不接触秘密明文，一定程度上能够满足秘密共享中的信心安全要求。单就这个角度而言，实现了去中心化密钥管理的NuCypher仅仅是提升了加密过程的可信等级以及灵活性，并不具备行业颠覆的潜力；不过这两点恰恰是Dapp领域所需要的。\n\n\n\n因为去中心化Dapp内除了保证资产安全转移之外，有时候还需要进行数据的传输，比如分布式医疗记录系统内的病人资料共享。假设信息共享过程需要半可信中心化代理者来辅助完成，那么这将成为可信链内的薄弱环节。而NuCypher的实施将能解决此处的可信弱点，提供中立且抗审查的加密信息共享服务。就目前而言，NuCypher已经被分布式社交网络和物联网数据集市Datum、分布式数据方服务Wolk等等应用采用。\n\n\n\n而项目能够实现去中心化加密传输的核心是，NuCypher采用了代理重要加密技术以及PoS算法抵押、分割密钥代理等共识机制。前者是一种采用对称及非对称结合的混合加密技术，可让传输者将数据共享工程中的所有风险转嫁到NuCypher代理层身上；而后者多个安全机制的组合，则用来防止村民执行重加密及解密过程中可能会出现的作弊行为，从而保障整个加密过程的可靠性。\n\n\n\n不过要注意的是，代理重加密技术共享的是密钥密文，而不是原始数据的加密；它只是打开共享隐私数据的钥匙，所以数据存放方面还是个问题。根据该项目加密算法工程师John Pacific的说法，当前NuCypher网络内并没有存储层，用户只能选择Amazon S3、IPFS和Google Drice等存储方案。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n领域新趋势or随风而逝？\n\n分层、跨链、隐私保护都是2019年公链项目关注的焦点，而这四个项目的故事恰好满足了我们对领域未来发展的构想——连通所有区块链经济体以及加密思想。\n\n\n\n这种价值孤岛安全互通的想法着实美好，但就如Aaron Brown最后对这四个项目的评价所说，他们任何一个都引人瞩目，但也有可能全部失败，因为我们并不知道连接各个区块链是不是加密货币所等待的关键创新。\n\n\n\n至于这个问题的答案是什么，或许要等到区块链村庄流动人口达到一定规模的时候，才能得知。\n\n\n\n\n\n参考资料\n\n[1] 李画，《为什么说波卡的对手不是Cosmos，而是以太坊》，橙皮书\n\n[2] Aaron Brown，《Crypto Fans Need to Monitor Four Key Developments》，Bloomberg Opinion\n\n[3] Jan Xie，《CKB：Nervos的信任引擎》，Nervos Network\n\n[4] 节点计划，《NuCypher深度评测：顶级区块链投资机构为何都要钟情它》，NPC源计划\n\n[5]《Nervos CKB: A Common Knowledge Base for Crypto-Economy》，GitHub\n\n[6]《软硬核：彻底读懂Cosmos如何一键发链与万链互联》，链闻\n\n※更多精彩内容，请关注哈希派公众号或点击阅读原文获取",
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      "title": "除了币价，2019更要重点关注这四个「插件项目」"
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      "body": "![微信图片_20190418094427.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWcN762aC2DFSHf73WrPeNigCAkPX8X2bdwtBi4honnjN/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%87_20190418094427.jpg)\n作者 | 哈希派分析团队\n![1.1.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZtQdDQ9UrzC6RFp4CZsBZG6RFZjTaYiTo2fBeKyhoZNm/1.1.png)\n![1.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXCcJ1M3SmUvZGkYnaVrs2bU2McJprCgergAsD1NnvdEA/1.jpg)\n![1.2.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWDQxSw6NY3QrJYNugBs8okRhh2waVzB5iKY5PWPLcXi8/1.2.png)\n![2.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWjix7Zx7iMB2Bkr5XSNDYnDFuQe2JB6tgVmaCvrxDuuS/2.jpg)\n![1.3.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmX1r8NHcVqGooHiDg7jHetU9yU1SyUn7pTZijyUwoEGcu/1.3.png)\n![3.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUdSBxkkGJir7ybrWTKaSLoEkhsiGga1jMgiGVqi9fM6i/3.jpg)\n![1.4.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ7tHyPQ871xqwvnfGnAfaZVoneCmmuGjzXSnfdWZcUVp/1.4.png)\n![4.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVYAPwXApfNTBwcDpacW7dW5h4ngej5uuhcMQFb48HyT9/4.jpg)\n![1.5.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSjuPfBP11ZxLkhGJEz9Vm167VhnEG3wehtpP1FvSNpMo/1.5.png)\n![5.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVZKfyiVoM9jycCW4iGQkGhcN4zSQbKew4gKyW5HvQpKt/5.jpg)\n![1.6.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRcjt8gR2kfvL8T3ByFeKUDFnyuKV5Ys8HVJTGbtM8kTG/1.6.png)\n![6.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdkCHfmXsJ1R8AurorTxPhLUv3U81CC7QQduX1Py4SXYT/6.jpg)\n![1.7.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZYqntgau98NnbKsSmitKRRyFKvKzCS4G2NgjF9pynd5q/1.7.png)\n![7.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZSAgQRiLZ9hg7APgWJj77uzkc5qrfMF2iGfu2GXBCw3n/7.jpg)\n![1.8.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSQgQ6kFdMTNguusGBM9g3cpzXg32CnstsQ5WCTAhyPMY/1.8.png)\n![8.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfZKjdGGpDNdbSm4ViTV64Fv31H6WAvD1s5UPx2b97UeT/8.jpg)\n往期回顾：BTC突破5800美元，行情进入最后加速阶段\n![微信图片_20190418094517.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmayj1zasuZXqbgxNAerzSiKV22oqqm6qGoAEZeBSo77zA/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%87_20190418094517.jpg)\n※回顾昨日行情分析、获取更多精彩内容，请关注哈希派公众号或点击阅读原文获取",
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      "permlink": "37kb7u-btc",
      "title": "行情分析：BTC强势回涨高位，但日线指标已背离"
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      "author": "steemcleaners",
      "body": "[Source](https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3517784)\n[Plagiarism](http://www.plagiarism.org/plagiarism-101/what-is-plagiarism/) is the copying & pasting of others work without giving credit to the original author or artist. Plagiarized posts are considered spam. \r\n\r\nSpam is discouraged by the community, and may result in action from the [cheetah bot](https://steemit.com/faq.html#What_is__cheetah).\r\n\r\n[More information and tips on sharing content.](https://steemcleaners.org/copy-paste-plagiarism/)\r\n\r\nIf you believe this comment is in error, please contact us in [#disputes on Discord](https://discord.gg/YR2Wy5A)",
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