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      "title": "최저임금제를 위한 변명 : 사중손실과 시장 탄력성의 문제",
      "body": "![CE62BF06-B963-4875-A6E6-E785D949F285.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRQ3gcNPeH8BHmXUrKPCmgKLwjXPSvYTrKzXJ1e8ifWH7/CE62BF06-B963-4875-A6E6-E785D949F285.png)\n***Designed by @hingomaster***\n \n> ***올해 1월 1일부터 최저임금이 대폭 오르고 난 뒤 이제 거의 반 년이 지났다. 슬슬 그 효과가 실증적으로 드러날 때라는 것이다. 물론 실증적으로 드러난 효과가 반영되는 지표들이 속속 나오고 있다. 바로 실업률과 소득이다. 지난 1월 최저임금 상승을 기점으로 양 지표는 모두 나빠졌다. 실업률은 15~29세 청년 기준 수도권을 위주로 3월까지 거의 4%p 가량 악화되었고, 다들 익히 아시다시피 1분위 소득 역시 감소하였다.***\n \n그렇다면 현 정부의 최저임금제도는 과연 실패한 정책인가? 약 5~6년 뒤에도 같은 현상이 반복되겠지만 지금 그렇게 이야기 할 수는 없다. 왜냐면 최저임금제는 수요/공급의 법칙상 단기적으로 실업의 증가 및 사회적 잉여의 사중손실로 나타나는 소득의 감소를 모두 나타내는 것이 당연하다. 그러나 실업의 증가와 소득의 감소는 노동시장의 수요탄력성으로 인해 마치 양날의 칼과 같은 성격을 띠기도 한다. 때문에 지금 함부로 정책의 효과를 이야기할 수는 없는 것이다.\n \n우선 아래 그림을 보도록 하자. 아래 그림은 간단한 노동시장의 수요/공급곡선 및 최저임금제의 효과를 나타낸 것이다. 만약 정부가 최저임금을 P0 에서 P1 으로 이동시킬 경우, 공급자인 노동자의 입장에서만 생각할 때 H라는 노동의 초과공급, 즉 실업이 발생하여 E가 사중손실로 소멸됨에 따라 노동수요자인 기업의 잉여였던 B를 노동자가 가져가게 된다. 즉 B-E 가 0보다 크면 노동자가 이득, 그렇지 않으면 기업이 이득인 것이다.\n\n![6AA4FD45-1660-4CD4-9F61-F621A0969BE7.jpeg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbR22r8frGKGtiQwA2h8gjAxZ5TTMSKX8ssJhxcgoQnvA/6AA4FD45-1660-4CD4-9F61-F621A0969BE7.jpeg)\n***<center>최저임금으로 인한 노동수요 및 공급의 변화</center>***\n \n그렇다면 여기서 B와 E의 상대적인 크기를 생각한다면, 우리는 최저임금 상승의 효과를 파악할 수 있다. 그러나 B와 E의 상대적인 크기는 수요곡선의 기울기에 따라 달라질 수 있다는 점이 문제이다. 즉 노동시장의 수요탄력성이 최저임금제의 효과를 결정하게 되는 가장 중요한 변인이 되는 것이다. 아래 그림을 보면 더욱 명징하다. 보다 비탄력적인 시장일 경우, H로 대표되는 실업도 감소하고 노동자에게 이전되는 잉여인 B의 면적도 크게 늘어난다. 반대로 보다 탄력적인 시장일 경우, 정반대의 효과를 가져온다.\n \n즉, 노동시장의 수요가 비탄력적일 경우, 최저임금제의 시행은 기업의 잉여를 노동자에게 이전하는 효과를 충분히 가져올 수도 있다는 뜻이 된다. 그렇다면 한국의 경우 어떠할까? 최근 자료를 찾기는 어려워 2005년 노동연구원의 자료를 살펴보았더니, 한국 노동수요의 임금탄력성은 -0.126~-0.253 사이로 추정되어 상대적으로 비탄력적인 것으로 추정된다. 그러나 자본대체탄력성의 경우 0.315~0.633 의 범위로 상대적으로 조금 더 탄력적이다.\n \n때문에 임금탄력성이 낮다고 할지라도, 기술의 발전 등으로 인해 자본대체탄력성이 높아질 경우 최저임금제의 본래 목적은 훼손될 수 있다. 그러나 아직 한국의 노동수요에 대한 정확한 탄력성 실증연구가 부족한 것도 현실이다. 때문에 내로라 하는 석학들께서 모두 최저임금제에 대해 다른 목소리를 내고 계시는 것이다. 게다가 실업률 숫자도 변화의 조짐을 보이고 있다. 서두에 18년도 3월까지 실업률이 크게 증가했음을 언급했지만, 2018년 4월에는 15~29세 실업률 기준 2.4%p 가량 하락했기 때문이다.\n \n때문에, 최저임금제의 정확한 단기적인 효과를 분석하려면 적어도 5월 실업률 및 2분기 가계소득 수치가 발표되어야만 가능하고, 아울러 우리나라 노동시장에 대한 정확한 각 부문별/업종별 수요 탄력성 데이터에 대한 실증연구가 선행되어야 한다. 즉 지금 와서 최저임금제는 원래 잘못되었다느니 하는 것도 옳지 않고, 최저임금제가 우리 모두를 구원하리라고 믿는 것 역시 옳지 않다는 것이다.",
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