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      "body": "# 穿越历史长河，看穿 3 次变革所带来的财富再分配\n\n**历史不会简单重复，却会惊人相似。** 在人类历史上，每当重大变革发生时，都将伴随着财富的再分配的过程。如 1840 年代的铁路，1920 年代的汽车和收音机，1950 年代的晶体管，1960 年代的分时共享计算机，以及 1980 年代早期的家用电脑等等，这些重大变革的繁荣在使社会往前飞速发展的同时，也往往打破固有的社会阶级，带来许多全新的机会，实现了一次又一次财富的再分配。\n\n而在这些重大变革中，有这样几个具有里程碑意义的阶段，值得我们关注。我试着将它们简单粗暴地划分为三个阶段：\n\n* 能源传输阶段\n* 信息传输阶段\n* 价值传输阶段\n\n### 能源传输阶段\n\n人类可以使用的能源种类实在不少，不过，人们不再满足牛耕马拉，人们需要更有动力的资源。\n而人们对能源真正大规模的应用，当从石油算起。\n\n时间回溯到了 19 世纪：\n\n> 1861年4月，形势发生了变化。钻井商打成了第一口自喷井，喷出的油达到每天3000桶的惊人数字。那口井中的油喷上天时，伴随的汽体被引着，结果造成爆炸并燃起熊熊大火，一直烧了三天，造成19人死亡。尽管上星期令人震惊的消息一南方部队在萨姆特要塞开火，打响了内战的第一枪一使人暂时忘却了这场爆炸，然而它向世界宣布：新工业将有充足的原料供应……\n\n一旦有了充足的原料，世界便一下子开足了马力往前奔跑起来。\n\n当新的机会来临时，人们总是如潮水一般涌到利益产生的地方。而那些参与到这场石油博弈中的人们也从中赚到了大量的金钱：\n\n> 战争结束后成千上万的退伍兵涌入油区，寻找发财之道。成百上千的新石油公司筹资开办，新公司需要的办公场所供不应求。在不到两年的时间里，一口令人难以置信的油井给每 1 美元的投资带来了 1.5 万美元的利润。\n\n而与石油相关的许多行业，则一下子兴起：如找油的、挖油的、运油的、炼油的、买卖石油的、开交易所的等等。\n\n想像一下，如果你来自外星球，在那个时候，从地球外面好奇的往地球张望，你会发现，这个星球一下子热闹了许多：人们的移动速度变快，运载的能力变强。然而，这才刚刚开始。\n\n\n### 信息传输阶段\n\n能源在全球的快速传输，使得世界 **快** 了起来。但人们并不满足于此，人们渴望足不出户，就知天下事。\n\n时间到了 20 世纪快要进入尾声的时候：\n\n1989 年，计算机已经网络已经有了，已经部分实现计算机的连接，但有一个问题就是不同计算机之间的文件很难共享。编码不一样，格式也不一样。\n\n1989 年 3 月，英国的科学家蒂姆·伯纳斯·李（TimBerners-Lee），提出了解决「不同计算机之间文件共享」的设想。更厉害的是，他还为此设计并构建了第一个网页浏览器，还为此设计了世界上第一个网页服务器。\n\n1991 年 8 月 6 日，世界上第一个网站诞生了，域名为 **Info.cern.ch**。你现在还可以访问这个世界上第一个网页，是这样子的。\n\n![](https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/BBXrCicxMgHu9lZ1146eKuPAnibT4LvgARNda5g6gNufEOOSuZYm0LPs7vYhvE6NUcNT9RM5ACgvm2giabK8Bwkww/0?wx_fmt=png)\n\n看起来非常简陋，但就从这里，**信息通过万维网得以传遍全世界**。\n\n从这开始不过 4 年的时间，也就是 1995，对于一家上市公司来说，如果没有自己的网站，那是不好意思，和别人说自己是上市公司的。于是，**.com** 泡沫则迅速膨胀，疯狂时只要在公司的名字前加上一个 **e-** 的前缀或公司域名使用了  **.com**，公司的股价就会大涨。\n\n市场的疯狂，给部分人带来了巨额的财富，更刺激人们投身其中，直到最后泡沫破碎。但生存下来的，则多数成为了市场的 **恒强恒大者**。\n\n\n### 价值传输阶段\n\n信息在全球的快速传输，使得世界 **更快** 了，也成了 **地球村**。但人们并不满足于此，人们渴望价值可以快速安全地在全世界流转。\n\n只是这一次，与上一次相比更快，快的让多数人还没有意识到它的到来。\n\n时间来到了 21 世纪刚刚开始的时候：\n\n2009 年 1 月 3 日，一位化名为 **中本聪** 的人发明了一个系统：不依靠任何中心机构，只凭点对点的网络传输，就可以实现的电子现金系统。\n\n![](https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/BBXrCicxMgHu9lZ1146eKuPAnibT4LvgAR964Cic883g8e3AIdricdpoiaj8HjxlP6iaA29hs64ibRrxY8bGAicaacXk3g/0?wx_fmt=jpeg)\n\n经过近 10 年的发展，比特币及区块链技术经过了一次又一次的迭代更新，它所呈现出来的能量也越来越巨大，也被越来越多的人们注意到。\n\n**蒂姆·伯纳斯·李** 发明了万维网后，曾考虑过开一家叫做 “网软” (websoft) 的公司来经营万维网，但他最后放弃了这个决定，并没有成立公司圈钱，挥一挥衣袖，将万维网当作送给全人类的最好的礼物。\n\n**中本聪** 这次做的更绝，从一开始就是匿名，到后来干脆没了消息，只留下一段传说。\n\n蒂姆的发明已经给这个星球带来巨大的改变，中本聪的发明将要给这个星球带来巨大的改变。而他们都选择了舍弃如此财富，令闻者不禁为之唏嘘不已。希望，**这盛世，如你所愿**。\n\n\n\n从 **能源传输** 到 **信息传输** 的跨越历经 100 多年，而从 **信息传输** 跃进到 **价值传输** 估计用不了 20 年的时间。\n\n虽然第三阶段 **价值传输**，还需要等待更多的时间来验证。但未来已来，只是尚未流行。当我们对目前迷茫时，或许历史早已告诉我们答案。历史已经证明，就在此时，**风险与机遇同在，挑战与发展共存**。\n\n而处在如此巨大的科技旋涡的我们，只有心怀敬畏之心，不辍学习，虽不确定能进到何处，但我们知道，**必须不停奔跑，才能留在原地**。",
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      "body": "180203 区块链知新录\n\n**此时，适合静下心来学习。**\n\n*  新技术往往会带来财富的再分配。蒸汽机如此，火车如此，集装箱如此，计算机如此，网络如此，AI 如此，区块链亦如此。\n> The benefits of new technologies often flow disproportionately to the rich. \n\n* 当 **中本聪** 在 2008 年 11 月 1 日在那个秘密的讨论群中宣称，「我正在开发一种新的电子货币系统，采用完全点对对的形式，而且无须受信第三方的介入」的时候，是几乎没有人相信他的。因为这又是一次不成熟的夸夸其谈。但是，当在中本聪细致而又精准的回答完众多密码学家的质问时，多数密码学家又转而支持他。因为，这些密码学家是识货的。而这样的一个系统，由专家精英到平民百姓，还需要有很长的一段路要走。\n\n* 比特币被发明出来的三项关键技术分别是：非对称加密、点对点技术以及哈希现金（HashCash）。虽然这三项技术，没有一项是中本聪发明出来的，但他是将这三者完美结合在一起的第一人。而这同样是一个惊世骇俗的创举。\n*",
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      "body": "1.    就像企业的经营过程当中，现金是非常重要的一样，在投资领域里，手上留有现金一样重要。\n\n2. 不要关心 TOKEN 的价格涨跌多少，而要关心 TOKEN 背后的项目具体能做什么事？能解决什么实际问题？能带来什么价值？有时，哪怕有名人背书，也是不足以为信的。前段时间就有这样的段子传出， **听他的话，不买他的币**，觉得很有道理。",
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      "body": "1. 接昨天继续跌，且较昨日跌幅更大，清一色下行。继续抄底，每跌一些，就买进一些。真是印证了那句话， **手上一定要留有现金** 的重要性。居家过日如此，经营企业如此，股市如此，币市亦如此。大跌时， **对优质资产要分批买进** ，即所谓要分批抄底。因为市场大跌时，不知道何时为底，何处为底。我们只能按 **原则** 行事。\n\n2. 近阶段的市场不大可能会有较好的起色。估计跌后横盘会是大的趋势。如果跌，那就再加仓。想起前两天看到的一句话：涨就不动，跌了有钱加仓，没钱睡觉。有时 **不动** 和大多数策略比较起来都是一个好的策略。\n\n3. 哈，小家伙决定用自己的零花钱买了几个 EOS 与 AE，哈，也算是一个小小的币友了。",
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      "body": "1.  今天去北京参加 MJ 老师的超级数字力课程，在飞机上花了 一个多小时将《区块链 从数字货币到信用社会》前几章翻了一下。对比特币的前世今生有了进一步的了解，对区块链的未来更是充满了信心与期待。中本聪所谓 Bitcoin ，实际上是指一套不需要第三方验证，可以自动通过网络传输和验证的机制。中本聪发明比特币，是偶然也是必然。说偶然，是因为比特币的实现主要是基于 **非对称加密**、**点对点传输技术**、**哈希现金**，它们都不是中本聪发明的；而必然，在了前人的基础，再加上中本聪在这几方面都有深入的研究，再加上计算机编程技术了得，当然还有对加密货币的痴情，最终于 2008 年完成了比特币的发明。\n\n* 非对称加密算法：1976 年 威特菲尔德 迪菲 （Whitfield Diffie）与马蒂 赫尔曼（Marty Hellman）发明。\n* 非对称 RSA 加密算法：1977 年 罗纳德 李维斯特（Ron Rivest )、阿迪 萨莫尔（Adi Shamir)和伦纳德 阿德曼（Leonard Adelman）发明，使之具备商业实用性。\n* 椭圆曲线加密算法（ECC）：1985 年 尼尔 科布利茨（Neal Koblit）和维科特 米勒（Victor Miller）首先提出。也就是比特币中用到的加密算法。\n\n* 点对点网络（P2P Network)：Shawn Fanning , Shawn Parker\n* Hash Cash : 1997 年，亚当 拜克（Adam Back），成功地解决了 **双重支付**。\n* 可复用的工作量证明：2004 年，哈尔 芬尼接过拜克的接力棒，对 HashCash 改进，变成可复用的工作量证明。\n\n其实，无论是中本聪，还是之前的那些为加密货币探索过的先行者们，都将会永载历史的史册。当然，加密货币的第一人还是 **中本聪** 莫属。\n\n\n2. 几句蛮深刻值得思考的话：\n\n> 未来有多美好，现在就有多混乱。\n> 只有去中心化的技术，没有去中心化的人群。\n> 传统金融的信用创建在高楼大厦止，未来的信用创建在区块链的数据上。",
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      "body": "1. 今天在一个群看到有人被骗子骗了。觉得很痛心，有一位群友的话，虽不正听，但却是大实话，「没有任何人会保护你的权益」。若不是我警惕性稍高一点，当时脑袋一热估计也肯定中招了。当时基于两点，1）加好友的消息；2）群内交易记录，即口碑。其实哪怕基于这两点，亦不能完全保证信任。还是钱物两讫最安全。哈，这也正说明信任机制的重要性，在区块链当中，如果有一次行骗，则该记录永远也不可能抹去。到那时，信誉势必是你要用生命来维护的东西了。\n\n2. 市场于今天晚上突然急剧下行，各群里又是一片惊呼。其实，越是这种时候，越要想想，我们当初是为了什么出发，目标发生变化吗，市场发生变化了吗？有什么根本性的改变吗。若没有，还是心放宽一些。多读些书。今天事情较，GNT 的白皮书还没有看完，要抓紧。\n\n3. 今天又 GET 到一个新的类比，认为区块链相当于人造时间，区块链将重新构建时间。因为两者都具有「不可逆」性。\n\n4. 早听说过，在 2009 年有人用 10000 个比特币购买了两张“棒 约翰”的比萨，大家现在肯定会骂那个人是「傻 X」。其实殊不知，那个是最早用 GPU 来挖比特币的人，对他而言，他的比特币多的不得了。因为当大家都用 CPU 挖矿时，他用的是 GPU，而后者比前者的算力在当时要高几千倍。",
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