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      "body": "Congratulations @insideye! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@insideye/birthday1.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 1 year!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@insideye) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=insideye)_</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/the-steem-community-has-lost-an-epic-member-farewell-woflhart\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQWnM36SWCPGn98nY83M1ArgweMz5fnovQEp2E4FiDdug/Wolfhart_header.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/the-steem-community-has-lost-an-epic-member-farewell-woflhart\">The Steem community has lost an epic member! Farewell @woflhart!</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemtoolbar/@steemitboard/steemtoolbar-update-display-bug-fixed\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/http://i.cubeupload.com/7CiQEO.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemtoolbar/@steemitboard/steemtoolbar-update-display-bug-fixed\">SteemitBoard - Witness Update</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steem/@steemitboard/do-not-miss-the-coming-rocky-mountain-steem-meetup-and-get-a-new-community-badge\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUphCGZFWgt6bJ1XTtunV7esnwy6bxnGqcLcHAV3NEqnQ/meetup-rocky-mountain.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steem/@steemitboard/do-not-miss-the-coming-rocky-mountain-steem-meetup-and-get-a-new-community-badge\">Do not miss the coming Rocky Mountain Steem Meetup and get a new community badge!</a></td></tr></table>\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "author": "nigelmarkdias",
      "body": "> What he can generate is far too small for any scalable project. \n\nInstanbul has these working, though.\nHave a look. @insideye\nhttps://youtu.be/EY-liIaDKZI",
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      "body": "Hello @introduce.bot, thank you for upvoting!",
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      "body": "Not really. What he can generate is far too small for any scalable project. This is good marketing though, it can be a good boost for the country",
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      "body": "The country at the border of long-lasting wars, one of the strongest nations as a global political actor, the 18th largest economy in the world, with the population of 81 million according to the most recent counts is going to elect first ever president this Sunday.\n\nUntil today, Turkey had a parliamentary system where the diplomatic coalitions and consensus were the major method to rule the country. However, a 51% ‘YES’ results of last year referendum changed the system. This Sunday, for the first time in its history, the country will choose its first president and elect its parliament members and parties separately.\n\nIn order to understand this Sunday’s elections better, we need to understand the country’s background.\n\nTurkey, since its foundation in 1923, has been a secular social state with a population of Muslim majority where the nation always strove to match prosperity levels of modern civilizations. It has been situated right at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, where Africa ascends to meet them. The history of the land and the neighboring regions has always been full of conflicts. The country itself got its share of politic problems in its reign of 95 years. All in all, Turkey stands out as a state with lots of hereditary problems but always is searching for peace and stability.\n\nUntil the 50s, Turkey remained as a new, small and closed country. Since the founding party(central-leftist) paved the path to the introduction of other political parties and lost the elections in 1950, various right wing parties has been in power for almost 70 years. (sometimes left-right coalitions)\n\nSince the 50s, following the foreign policies of the right wing parties, the country established closer  relations with the USA, became the first muslim majority nation to approve of an Israeli state and  participated in the wars in Korea and Afghanistan as a US ally and a NATO member. During this time, even though Turkey had ongoing conflicts with some other NATO countries, its membership and status of being allies with USA and Europe, always continued even when there were changes in the governments.\n\nIts economy failed to increase production and workforce levels, even tough, especially since the 70s, it was heavily invested in and integrated with the western markets. Until the millennium, Turkey had to struggle with chronic inflation and as of today it still has not managed to bring the unemployment numbers below 10%.\n![2c36f7da9ca400e8c3803c97610c975f--millet-ankara.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZAeZjGdfnoqRgqcjeA4x3k7cwkUBBmW8gWU4bejv3Y88/2c36f7da9ca400e8c3803c97610c975f--millet-ankara.jpg)\nold Turkish money with lots of zeros.\n![tup kuyrugu.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTq1eFncxLf721RF7cmsFmGcSRpUCWWD6S5xNDMnvLb9m/tup%20kuyrugu.jpg)\npeople in queue for gas.\n\n\nPOLITIC BACKGROUND\n\nWith the inclusion of American influences in the local politics, the right-wing parties of liberalists, nationalist, islamists which were supported against the Soviet threat grew their popularity especially after 1965. Tackled by one successful coup for every decade (and many more that failed), the country saw the year 2000 with an estimated 70% right-wing, 25% left-wing, 5% ethnically Kurdish voter support levels. In order to further dip the left-wing parties’ influences, a high threshold of 10% was in place for national elections introduced in 1982. As a consequence, the alternative voices were silenced, people were consolidated towards certain parties and the Kurdish minority in the Syrian, Iraqi, Iranian borders were kept under control.\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeuihfJCFkLvbG3iD3ZWHFW3KfxMC4DLGfH5fTcUEx1vh/image.png)\n\nToday, AKP (see table for explanation for parties) is fully under control of Recep Tayyip Erdogan (RTE), Turkey’s current \"president of republic\". The party was founded in 2001 to be the newer, young party with an Islamic brand to offer solutions for its respective islamic crowd, to establish a more just \n\nsystem and adopt a more liberal market. This was what nation needed at that time. Only in 1 year, with the help of the 10% threshold, the party was elected to govern the country for 5 years, having possessed %65 of the parliament seats with %34 voter support. Benefiting from the globalization era, high rates foreign finances and temporary illusions of prosperity created by vastly distributed credits among the local population, the party was re-elected in 2007 with a whopping 47% vote.\n![milliyet borclanma.Jpeg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSN658wbPhCDWzvwrHjvvdMpwqrZQMJHUPGMeJYe49iGf/milliyet%20borclanma.Jpeg)\nThe graph of household credits, source:Milliyet \n\nUntil recently AKP has managed to protect its votes, but underwent serious structural changes. The party kicked out some of its founders, lost interest of the liberals and broke the peace it started with  the Kurds. Today’s AKP has become a political party in which the democracy saw its end, RTE is almost considered as a prophet and his ideas are indisputably supported. The party is even considered to be the state itself by its devoted supporters.\n\nCurrently, almost 30 national TV channels broadcast Erdogan every single time he appears on somewhere on Earth. This is why free Turkish people started raising their voice against the rising repressive authority of his government. After Gezi protest where more than 4 million people were out on the streets protesting the government, AKP has faced with a decrease in their young votes due to its addressing and focusing more on the older population.\n\nOn the opposition side, social democrats CHP has accumulated a static 25% vote. Another %10 of the population is currently voting for left-kurds consolidation. Patriotic and nationalist Turks has gathered around MHP. Since 2007, MHP has found itself a place in the parliament with 11% support at minimum. It needs to be mentioned that nationalist vote potential has risen over the years due to the Kurdish Initiative* conducted by AKP which at that time was one of the internal policies declared as a plan to solve Kurdish problem. Grassroots of MHP happens to be both modern, Kemalist supporters who are closer to CHP side; and conservative, traditionalist supporters who are more inclined to AKP.\n\nTODAY\n\nAfter a couple of rough years fighting with many terrorist attacks, Turkey faced once again with a coup attack. A 40 year-old illegal so-called islamic organization led by an old imam under US surveillance, well established within the state institutions and army attempted to takeover the government. The attack was prevented by the regular civilians and police forces, leaving behind more than 200 deaths, leading the country to a nation-wide state of emergency.\n\nThe state of emergency fueled RTE even with more ambition to change the parliamentary system with the vastly overpowered presidential system. MHP, the nationalist opposition party took a turn to back AKP on designing the new system. However, the members who were opposing the idea of this “soft-alliance” formed an opposition within the party, which in a short time laid the foundation for a new right-wing party, İYİ Party.\n\nTurkey lived through a 2017 election to adopt this new system with only 51% siding with the change, seeing a very small margin between the two opposite ideas. It was a downtrend for RTE. He also was aware of this new trend among the voters, and called for immediate elections in 2.5 months on June 24th, 2018, in order to mitigate risks for his re-election campaigns.\n\nAfter skipping some information not to turn this text into an encyclopedia, as of today, RTE finds himself in a very tight election campaign. Along with his alliance with MHP, the opposition side also formed a comprehensive alliance.\n\nAccording to the new rules of the new system, alliance parties avoid staying below the 10% threshold. This enabled many voters to return to their original parties, heavily damaging AKP’s highly consolidated voterbase. I don’t know if it was his true intention, but RTE contributed greatly to the country’s democracy by introducing this new rule of alliances.\n\n\nOn the other hand, his democratic approach started to totter when it came to the left-kurdish party HDP. Because last week, a man with a party over 10%  support is making his first and only presidential official election speech from the prison cell he has been staying for the last 20 months. Although the latest polls reveal it to be an unlikely result, if elected, Selahattin Demirtas would be the first ever president in prison.\n\nThe AKP-MHP alliance has fallen well behind their joint support levels of 60%. The state of emergency, current economic situation, unstable political landscape has chopped off a quarter of their total support. Even tough MHP is openly supporting the candidacy of RTE as the new president, according to the latest surveys, AKP sits on %40 and MHP on %5; RTE on 45% national voter support, below the critical 50% level. \n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdB5QuGoGPuo91PTmtsEeTYZn2tdNFrRkUScccvjmTQhd/image.png)\nDollar-Turkish Lira graph, source:investing\n\nOpposition alliance is seeing the most active days in its recent history. Social democrat CHP, presented a new face and a younger member, Muharrem İnce as the presidential candidate, and for the first time in the 21th century, the party is witnessing growing contribution of voters on its grassroots. This movement seems now to create a very positive vibe and locked in many voters.\n\nOn the İYİ Parti side, responsibility and burden of a being the 2nd largest right-wing party, alternative to AKP, have led them to shape out an interesting election campaign. Although, the party and its founder and presidential candidate Meral Akşener has found great voice in the overall population, the mass and public media is actively avoiding to mention her name. This young movement is still continuing their election campaign at full-throttle but mrs. Meral Akşener experiences a downtrend in the latest polls, falling to the 15% level of support from the 20% levels she was enjoying only a month ago.\n\nWith merely 4 days short of election, we see dozens of election polls from various companies are published on many media. Considering that some function under direct orders by some of the political players, it would be wrong to take all of them into consideration. According to my own interactions with a diversity of people from multiple regions of the country and certain observations, I made a table where I put down my educated guess about presidential and parliamentary elections.\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQyrKFZFohdBAnByVQv6efg2FhU6dvMJYifcijgMN5nJ9/image.png)\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYyr6SDhGgs9f4X4aFZ6GKfEYG369AP2Rb6A16g3vHp76/image.png)\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZHMMnBm8QLDnHcJuLC6dfJGCXggeDsQZsaLX8kccdKA2/image.png)\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWEdLQdmYZ3j271A24jYAJpeRqD3uMam1mhbb15xpyHUh/image.png)\n\nThis table, representing the estimated results of 24th of June elections in Turkey, shows that RTE and AKP, are both at the verge of losing the government. They are desperate to see RTE winning the race on 8th of July in the second round.\n\nAlthough it is still regarded as a lower possibility, in case Muhammer İnce wins the second round, Turkey will witness RTE and AKP probably coming to their political ends. For the first time in his professional history, RTE would be on the opposition side. Until the 9th of July, it is impossible to know the results, 52 million Turkish voters will decide on this crucial election, which we may see affecting the world’s political scene. We are all looking forward to the day to find out.\n\n\nPS: The text above and the election results estimated within, is created objectively according to personal observations to shed as much light as possible to the national elections looming. The content is written without the intervention or influence of any other 3rd party institution or individual.",
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      "permlink": "turkish-politics-on-the-dawn-of-parliamentary-presidential-elections",
      "title": "TURKISH POLITICS ON THE DAWN OF PARLIAMENTARY/PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS"
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