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      "body": "Great article!  I am looking forward to more of your forensic work here.  That stock.it intentionally left back doors to rob the DAO is a major assertion, not yet proven but also far from seeming fantastical at this point.   It's clear that they are sloppy, unprincipled liars.  How though to find persuasive evidence that they did this intentionally, even if they did?",
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      "author": "dez",
      "body": "You bring up all valid points. To play devils advocate:\n\n- The Ethereum Foundation didn't create theDAO, though I agree they were too involved.\n\n- I'd say "code is law" is still in effect. Sure, this was broken with the HF, but going forward, I doubt we'll have the same opportunity to play this card again. I see the HF as really only being possible at this point in time where specific variables aligned to make it a reality. A precedent might have technically been set, but since future attacks will have completely different variables, I don't think that argument holds any weight.\n\n- I agree that the forks were rushed, but there was a valid time limit in place, being the ETA until the attacker could withdraw the siphoned  DAO tokens for ETH. Given that time limit, I think they did a great job. Concerning the lack of consensus, I'm not sure how realistic it is to expect a majority of holders to vote. I don't know of a case where a blockchain was able to get a majority of holders to vote on anything. This is a governance issue that has yet to be solved.  I guess the real vote is happening now on the free markets with ETC vs. ETH.",
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      "author": "onighost",
      "body": "afaik the dao is seprate from eth correct? Its just another company that created and did it on their own. They fucked that up not the Eth devs as much as I understood it. Now I fully agree with the fork and think it should have happened. We would be in a much worse position if eth did not fork. How would it be viewed by the general public? They would say wow a hacker stole 12 or 7% of all ether which could have been prevent and they let it happen. Nobody from the general public in my opinion would invest in the currency then. But I know they completely ignored their own rules stating that whatever the code says its the law with the dao contract, and there are good agurments against mine, but I feel that forking was the right decision and was all for it.",
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      "author": "truthtaco",
      "body": "@@ -161,8 +161,150 @@\n of luck.\n+ I didn't even know a difficulty bomb was  built into Ethereum. All your post did was impress me with how forward thinking the developers are.\n",
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      "body": "So that 25x price disadvantage is now down to only 5x, within two days of me having written the article.  Don't mistake a strong looking opening for a sure victory.  \n\nSecond, I have more to learn about Steem.  I have read the white paper, but need to re-read it.  I have no problem with a market cap of $250 million-$300 million though, as a social network with a rapidly growing user base would easily be valued in this range in the venture capital world.  \n\nDo you have a strong understanding of how it works at the blockchain level and with the Steem Dollar tokens?",
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      "body": "I am simply saying that they act without thinking things through.  I'm not expecting 100% accurate knowledge of anything in particular.  I am however very critical of: Creating a DAO in a hasty and sloppy manner, misleading people repeatedly about its security, discarding the principle of "code is law" without thinking through the implications there, rushing a soft fork without doing any security analysis (luckily an outsider pointed out its fatal flaw), rushing a hard fork under the most pretentious facade of consensus imaginable, presuming that less than 10% of holders voting in favour of the fork would be perceived as consensus and would get everyone else to fold their tents and go home, and, especially in this article, assuming that they will dictate what the solution is going to be to the difficulty bomb - a solution that rewards large stakeholders like the developers with rewards for doing no work.",
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      "body": "Anyone mining should now be smart enough to know that forking ethereum and continuing to mine on that fork is easy.  Doing work for ether makes sense.  Proof of Stake rewards the pre-mined coin holders, who own around 5/6ths of all the coins now and will be assured that they continue to hold that proportion for doing no work.  I doubt there will be much sympathy when one weeds out the mindless worshippers of Vitalik Buterin.  There's another hard fork coming, and there's yet another split coming.",
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      "body": "You talk as if the Ethereum Foundation is riding through travelled roads, when this is the wild wild west; uncharted territory.  Blockchain tech /  Ethereum is new and revolutionary, of course they're gonna have some bumps in the road and not get everything right.  \n\nTo suggest they don't understand human behavior due to being "young, inexperienced, and egomaniacs" is quite the statement, considering no one on this planet has complete and 100% accurate knowledge on human behavior in order to perfectly model incentives in action.",
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      "author": "birdseyeview",
      "body": ">What do you think miners want to do? Hard fork to put them out of business through Proof of Stake, or hard fork to eliminate the difficulty bomb?\n\nAnyone mining should be smart enough to know this would happen eventually and planned accordingly.\n\nIf I had to wager, I'd say that the miners who are working on ETH are just going to switch to mining other currencies once the PoS switch happens. \n\nThe equipment used for mining ETH are not ASICs and are just basic GPUs. Most people likely invested very little to mine JUST for ETH and even if they did, they'll likely be able to sell off or make use of their existing equipment.  \n\nRegardless of what happens, ETH is still an incredibly revolutionary product that will very likely change the world.",
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      "author": "logical",
      "body": "<h1>From crisis to crisis</h1>\n<p>For the last two months, ethereum has gone from crisis to crisis to crisis.  First the DAO hack, then the failed soft fork, then the hard fork that resulted in two versions of ethereum.  </p>\n<p>In each step, greed, conflicts of interests, rushed software development and/or a failure to fully think through consequences of actions have been the factors that resulted in a the attempted solution to a previous crisis actually becoming the causes of the next crisis.</p>\n<h1>The next crisis - again a lack of forethought</h1>\n<p>Ethereum has built into it what is called a mining difficulty bomb.  This is a hard coded increase in mining difficulty that will eventually make it too difficult to mine a block.  Why was this intentionally included?  It was included to necessitate a move to Proof of Stake mining from Proof of Work.  It was assumed that the solution would be to hard fork to Proof of Stake from Proof of Work.</p>\n<p>But what if you want instead to fork to make Proof of Work continue to be viable?  That's easy, just remove the difficulty bomb from the code.  It's very simple - it's only a part of a line of code.</p>\n<p>What do you think miners want to do?  Hard fork to put them out of business through Proof of Stake, or hard fork to eliminate the difficulty bomb?  The choice is obvious.  Ethereum will either abandon Proof of Stake as a whole or fork again into two ethereums.  And by the way, this is true for both ETH and ETC, so we may have both of those chains forking in two directions.  </p>\n<p>There is a pattern here.  It is the lack of forethought of consequences of game theory by the leadership of the Ethereum Foundation.  They talk a big game about game theory, but if they have shown anything so far, it is that they are not good at modelling incentives and actions.  You can't really blame them for not understanding human behaviour well, being that they are young, inexperienced and egomaniacs, but the community continually will have to put up with the consequences of this nevertheless.</p>",
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      "author": "eeks",
      "body": "This piece was solid.\n\n>This they managed even though there was quite a bit of ambiguity about what the vast majority of ethereum holders and miners actually wanted to do.  There was some voting, but because of the short time frame, confusion and complexity, none of the votes had particularly large turnouts.  \n\nBut this is not.  The consensus was pretty clear at the time as no gauge showed an anti-HF majority.   Those anti-HFers had it easy to show everyone how wrong it was -- they could have doubled their or tripled it.  I alone could have increased the Carbonvote results substantially.  It took so little and yet when push came to shove, the anti-HF was the vocal minority.\n\nIt's even more clear now when you look at the economic vote we are seeing between ETH and ETC.   One is worth 25x more than the other.  One has 25x more hashing power.  So to see that as a battle that ETC can win, you have to think that not only is the crazy project that was/is Ethereum viable and able to work, already not necessarily even likely, you have to also think ETC can overcome an advantaged competitor from which it's only possible edge is the philosophical value of not having forked to undo the DAO attack (technically ETC is as forkable as ETH, if not more, due to the fewers users and smaller hashing supporting it).\n\nETC inherits all of the riskiest parts of Ethereum (competition against Bitcoin, competition against other new coins and projects, scalability issues, technical challenges) and it does so with a 25x hashing disadvantage to Ethereum and a 25x price disadvantage and I would guess about a similar if not greater disparity in terms of people involved. On top of that dapps will not work on both in a way that is safe and honestly probably not at all if they have to interact in any with the physical world or world outside Ethereum. This goes for both Maker and Digix, both of whom have stated that they will not support the unforked chain. No devs (or maybe de minimis support?), no dapps, few people, little hashing, no price. \n\nThe biggest thing ETC has going for it is the support of people in the Bitcoin world who have been the most hostile towards Ethereum and called it and everyone altcoin a shitcoin. How valuable is that support? How long does it last if ETC starts succeeding and challenging BTC in their minds?\n\nGlad to have you on Steem though, you put in the effort and that's great.  What are you Steem thoughts so far?  Is it sustainable?  Would you buy Steem and Power it up or not?  If not, why?",
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      "author": "jazzka",
      "body": "You brought up an interesting point about minority/majority in the fork discussion. You might be right about there being not much voters in the  pre-fork vote. We now have 2 chains and people can decide which one they use. The fact that we can trade ETH/ETC makes the current situation effectively a _vote_. \n\nPeople put their money where their mouth is, so the question about vocality becomes less important. I think it is a good thing that the non-forked chain continues to exist, so it is clear to those using the forked chain that they are not being forced to do so. There should be no ambiquity in the consensus, and both chains can co-exist if people see the need for them. Trying to fight battles only results in wasted energy.",
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      "body": "<html>\n<h1>A Brief History of the Past Month - A vocal minority forks successfully&nbsp;</h1>\n<p>Whether one is opposed to or in favour of the ethereum hard fork, it was clear that the pro-fork forces were a far more organized movement during the period leading up to the forking block. &nbsp;</p>\n<p>They were able to persuade developers of every flavour of ethereum to create their fork, they were able to persuade every mining pool to mine on their chain and they were able to persuade every exchange to trade ether only from their fork. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>\n<p>This they managed even though there was quite a bit of ambiguity about what the vast majority of ethereum holders and miners actually wanted to do. &nbsp;There was some voting, but because of the short time frame, confusion and complexity, none of the votes had particularly large turnouts. &nbsp;</p>\n<h1>Where we are now - another vocal minority preserves the original chain</h1>\n<p>But we must remember that blockchains are very anti-fragile systems, and that the only way to snuff out a chain is to stop everyone in the world from mining on it. &nbsp;</p>\n<p>This was the miscalculation of the pro-fork forces. &nbsp;A very small movement rose up in the last days before the fork proclaiming that they would continue to mine the original \"classic\" ethereum chain. And that small group kept their word. &nbsp;</p>\n<p>Within a day or two, mining difficulty on their chain had fallen and they were producing blocks at nearly the same rate as the main chain.</p>\n<p>And within five days, exchanges decided to trade ethereum classic, ETC. &nbsp;</p>\n<h1>Where we are headed - a prolonged and unpredictable battle</h1>\n<p>It turns out that the occurrence of the fork was not the end game, not checkmate, but merely the ending of the opening of the battle between ETH and ETC. &nbsp;</p>\n<p>Now it needn't be a battle on a technical level. &nbsp;</p>\n<p>But it is a battle for the same reason it was a battle between pro-fork and status quo before. &nbsp;That is, the pro-forkers are the ones who have a great deal to lose if their fork doesn't endure. &nbsp;</p>\n<p>However, unlike before the fork, when the DAO funds were locked up, on the forked chain all the ether is available for withdrawal, and this creates the window for DAO investors to get their ETH back and to sell it for 10 to 20 times as much ETC. &nbsp;That's a mighty interesting migration path from the forked chain to the classic chain. &nbsp;While I wouldn't expect anyone to do precisely that, buying back an amount of ETC equivalent to your holding of ETH with your returned ETH is actually a very interesting hedge. &nbsp;In fact there's lots of interesting trading positions to take that are different from holding only one coin.</p>\n<p>And because there is no more DAO to draw the attention of the community towards new investment opportunities, trading ETH with ETC (and other coins) is about the most interesting thing to watch.</p>\n<p>Can the pro-forkers come up with a plan to end ETC or will both chains exist in some state of battle for years or even decades? &nbsp;Too hard to predict.</p>\n</html>",
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      "title": "Miscalculations About the Endgame of the Ethereum Fork (It ain't over 'til it's over)"
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