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      "author": "minderbinder",
      "body": "One of the biggest challenges facing crypto is how it will roll out - be real and do real things.  At the moment, the vast majority of projects lack even having made the initial steps to the roll out of their working product.  Sure, they ICO'ed, the exchanges trade their coin, there's hype, the value is growing, but what about the real, working projects?  Everyone who is a diehard proponent of their coin or token will tell you it's a sure thing, a solid bet, \"you'll be driving a lambo soon,\" but STILL why is the market responding to whatever coin or token the way it is?  \n\nC'mon Fuck Coin is currently trading at some number greater than ZERO?  Why?  \"Cause fuck you that's why!\"\n\n*That's a mature bubble for you - irony notwithstanding.*\n\nhttps://www.stockvault.net/data/2012/07/31/133325/preview16.jpg\n[www.stockvault.net](https://www.stockvault.net/data/2012/07/31/133325/preview16.jpg)\n\nAnyway, aside from my [usual diatribes about what is driving crypto valuation](https://steemit.com/investing/@minderbinder/the-potential-future-of-crypto-prices-and-the-effects-of-the-hunt-for-yield), my big question now is on the structural performance end.  At the moment, chasing moon missions is super fun.  Basically any ICO means that one is going to get a return.  Life is great aint it?  Chasing gainz is the name of the game and ICO and recently ICO'ed coins generally post decent to stellar returns.\n\n**But why?**\n\nBecause the crypto market, in sum, is in an incredible frothing to outright bubbling stage.  There's no if, ands, or buts about it.  I'm not saying that after the carnage of the pop there won't be any survivors, but the way the market is acting at the moment is nothing short of mind-bendingly insane.  I think there's still a couple of months to a year or so left in her and this insanity, but let me illustrate what is going on through the beauty of metaphor.\n\nRight now we're in the exciting stage of dating.  Everything is cool, there's attraction, your significant other is the most interesting person you've ever known.  You go out dancing, drink too much, and make love to early morning every time you spend the night together.  You want more and more.  Eventually, the initial attraction and excitement starts to wear off though.  Your significant other takes a dump at your place, that meeting you have is super early and they want to stay up talking, energy is running lower.  However, there's still love and lots of laughter.  Anyway, time passes and the relationship formalizes ever more where arguments give way to making plans about how to pay bills and perhaps have a family.  Things get steadier, less exciting, but nonetheless satisfying continuing to laugh a ton.  Once in awhile you two still give way to the passions of the flesh and it's great, but it exists in a richer, deeper context that not only involves the idea of the beauty of it, but also the dirty reality - warts and all.  That's love right?\n\n**Right now we're in the high energy make love all night phase.  Eventually the responsible, building a life together phase is going to get going and boom coin picking is going to be centered on project and product, not hype.**\n\nAll right, all right.  The mayhem in the crypto market is more likened to an orgy than a monogamous relationship.  In any event, the real deal crypto market is just around the corner when speculation gives way to product performance.  [We still have awhile till BTC starts coordinating and correlating with any other asset or asset class lending credence to its price activity.](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@minderbinder/when-should-the-bubble-bother-you-and-your-crypto-nest-egg)  So, in the meantime, speculate to your heart's content, but recognize that the party will end and poof you'll be looking at your favorite coin taking a dump in the bathroom after accidentally walking in on it.  If you can survive that dump (see what I did there?) then there might just be hope for the project.\n\nJust remember that once the ICO period really starts to wrap up (probably prodded by government intervention) then the value of the coin will be based on its utility.  For instance, I need some AI computing power then I'll need to buy some Deep Brain Chain (DBC) to get to use their networks.  If they offer a good product, then of course I'll go through the hassle of getting involved in their ecosystem.  So, if I'm hodling DBC for the long-term then what I'm saying is that in the long-term it's likely to be worth more once their product rolls out.  If it's short-term than I'm trying to play on the overall market and speculation immediately relevant to DBC itself.\n\nAnyway, the reason I wrote this article is because I felt that due to [the news cycle dominating chats](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@minderbinder/reading-your-coin-s-chat) that some perspective might have been order.\n\n*We're all gonna make it!*\n\n*Minderbinder*\n\n[Disclaimer: All the opinions expressed in this article are my own and are in no way meant to be construed as investment advice. Please exercise your own judgement in any investment or money management ideas that you happen to undertake in the traditional finance or cryptocurrency spaces. All images come from either personal files or websites that allow free images and each has an inline citation for reference. Good luck out there!]",
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      "body": "Bro don't order counterfeit money off the dark web.  HAHAHAHA.  Thanks for posting anyways.  Hope things are going better for you.  Take care!",
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      "body": "hola! I like your post! Thanks for it! I went to jail because of cryptos... lets make steemit together to a better place with our content! I would like to read a bit more about you and maybe do you have some more pictures? I also just wrote a introduce yourself. Maybe you upvote me and follow me swell as I do? https://busy.org/introduceyourself/@mykarma/1-jail-review-bitcoins-3-years-ago",
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      "body": "I'm always reading chats and what not trying to get a feel for sentiment with my particular coins and tokens in my portfolio and to see how market sentiment is doing.  I'm sure you do the same thing.  A bull market is exciting - full of highs and lows as gains post intermittently and the harrowing drops that bring on the pink Wojacks.  Here are some things I've run into...\n\nhttps://www.stockvault.net/data/2016/04/27/196023/preview16.jpg\n[www.stockvault.net](https://www.stockvault.net/data/2016/04/27/196023/preview16.jpg)\n\nFor the most part we in the crypto world are beholden to the news cycle.  In fact, it's one of the few areas of investment that still responds to any news coming out.  For the most part it's fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) that drives the price down of any particular asset and the level-headed \"Here's what actually happened...\" that gets the price back on track to recovery.  As any market historically has done, the drops can be quick and painful.  The gains slow.  However, with crypto as they say, \"Anything is possible.\"\n\n[But that isn't necessarily the case](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@minderbinder/the-power-of-fud-and-coming-clean).  What I have noticed, in general, is that there is a great deal of panic selling and a belief that the whales are benign protectors of crypto appreciation and, at times, the great market manipulators attempting to drive prices down so that they can accumulate.  In truth, it's tough to say if that actually happens because almost everyone's version of what is going on behind the scenes is self-serving and probably prone to confirmation bias.  In reality and taking things prima facie, the market likes to respond to the news Occam's razor-wise.\n\nIn the ebb and flow of things, generally you'll see people cheering their heads off on the chats when sentiment turns bullish.  When things start to go wrong you'll see people losing their minds.  (Obvious, I know.)  If things go very wrong you'll see the cryers come out and say things like, \"I mortgaged my house and now I've lost 50% of everything.\"  Whether that's true or not and whether that person is larping (live action role playing) or not is up to interpretation, but it seems the ups and downs of crypto are summarily more dramatic and personal than the average investor's ETF trading chat group.  *The key thing here is that crypto investing is intensely personal because there's very few institutional investors involved.*\n\nBut how do you interpret the chats?  It depends on your goals and what you're overarching thesis is on the crypto market.  The latter criterion is particularly important because it is the lense through which you'll view any chat's information.\n\nFor instance, if you are bullish in general for the valuation of crypto because you think it's an exciting new technology that may end up changing the world OR that it's a speculative investor's dream because people are losing their minds over it for little to no reason OR that it represents a real chance to displace central banks OR even [if you think it's in a growth phase predicated on central bank liquidity](https://steemit.com/investing/@minderbinder/the-potential-future-of-crypto-prices-and-the-effects-of-the-hunt-for-yield) THEN you are buying hand over fist.\n\nOn the other hand, if you're investing in crypto to short the market you probably think governments are going to outlaw it OR love the big FUD cycle that forces weak handed panic selling OR even you like the technology but think eventually the whole market itself will decouple from BTC and there's even more volatility in the offing THEN you are selling on the highs.  (This particular approach is difficult in crypto because to sell on the highs you must first have bought in.  *In general, there's money to be made on both sides of the market.*)\n\nSo what do chats tell us?\n\n- Easiest way to pick entrances to buy is to see in a chat when the group is going negative.  You'll see a few FUDers here and there eventually picking up in frequency as they either by design or by accident drive selling.  When the defenders in the chat capitulate it's probably a good entrance to buy.  One phrase that's great to determine capitulation is, \"Well, if you don't like coin XYZ then get out of here,\" when the coin is in a downtrend.  Exasperated hodlers are attempting to shake out the weak hands and speculators, but everyone is witnessing a dramatic downtrend.\n\n- The opposite does not hold true on the sell side.  What you will see is an initial phase of excitement - the real crescendo is when people keep checking the price or mentioning the price.  It'll start to stall out as people reel in disbelief.  Finally, late in the uptrend you'll see an influx of new people into the chat.  That is a solid sell signal.  Also, when people start congratulating themselves then boom you'll see some correction take place as profit-taking starts to get underway.\n\n*As a side note, it's incredibly difficult to time tops and bottoms.  It's better to catch trends.  And the chats are a vehicle to do so.*\n\nOn a personal note, although I think sentiment trend following has its merits what we have seen lately is the entire crypto market stubbornly beholden to BTC's value and price action.  So, that makes coin picking more difficult as every asset goes down at the same time and then when BTC is in an uptrend - only then - do coins differentiate themselves among the group.  As a global way of looking at things, sell on BTC highs and diversify into ICOs and real gainers in a BTC recovery.  Until [BTC loses its identity as the proxy value for all of crypto](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@minderbinder/when-should-the-bubble-bother-you-and-your-crypto-nest-egg) please act wisely.\n\n*We're all gonna make it!*\n\n*Minderbinder*\n\n[Disclaimer: All the opinions expressed in this article are my own and are in no way meant to be construed as investment advice. Please exercise your own judgement in any investment or money management ideas that you happen to undertake in the traditional finance or cryptocurrency spaces. All images come from either personal files or websites that allow free images and each has an inline citation for reference. Good luck out there!]",
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      "body": "Well, welcome to a fresh new hell in recent lows in the crypto market!  Ain't it great?  For all those that got out on the recent highs, well, congratulations.  As for the rest of us, well again, here we are bleeding from virtually every orifice.  I've posted in the past that it's likely that the overall stock market would be the arbiter of the eventual move in the crypto market, but I was mistaken to an extent.  I did underestimate the power of negative news' effects on our little nascent crypto corner of the world.\n\nSo, welcome to a great a crypto buying opportunity once BTC does finally level out.  For now, prepare to be eaten...\n\nhttps://www.stockvault.net/data/2012/11/06/137534/preview16.jpg\n[www.stockvault.net](https://www.stockvault.net/data/2012/11/06/137534/preview16.jpg)\n\nIn any event and cute bear pictures aside, it seems we're caught in a hideous downdraft.  For the most part, everybody's portfolios are covered in red.  My prior post [click here for some untimely ideas](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@minderbinder/when-should-the-bubble-bother-you-and-your-crypto-nest-egg) said that due to the hunt for yield it was unlikely -  barring some overall market correction - that crypto would take a big plunge.\n\nWell, here's the thing.  We still haven't seen a big plunge in the overall stock market, but we have seen a big one in crypto.  Why is that?  There are a number of effects at play that have coalesced over the last couple of days.  In the first place, South Korea had some confusing news pieces come out that said they were going to close down their exchanges.  That changed to not.  Then the SK news changed to government regulations to put a cap on rampant speculation.  Then out of China they decided to clamp down on BTC miners and work further to undermine the VPN-driven, decentralized exchanges that still allow people on the mainland to trade in crypto.  If that wasn't enough apparently there's a seasonal effect at play where the Lunar New Year is coming up for China and there's been a yearly seasonality to prices in this period (namely January dump to spring recovery) as people take profits to buy presents and tickets for what amounts to something akin to December in the US for Christmas.  All those factors have come in to shake the living crap out of the weak hands and have them fall off the tree, which creates a profit-taking or \"RUN FOR YOUR LIVES\" environment.\n\nMy mistake was that I underestimated the potential effects of government regulations; however, it's reasonable to assume that there is money circulating that is looking for a home, i.e. yield.  In truth, BTC along with all the other alts had a correction due in one form or another.  So, we're seeing that.  \n\nBut to what extent will it go?  \n\nIf this were the death of crypto we wouldn't be seeing an orderly exit to the market.  At the moment, the infrastructure surrounding the exchanges to get out of crypto into fiat is actually pretty cumbersome and if there had been a run to get out of the market we would have seen a spectacular crash as people panic sold into the hole then tried to get out of BTC or ETH.  (Spectacular crash in the crypto world would be bouncing off the zero bound in humble my opinion.)  This isn't a spectacular crash in crypto - this is just another day.  I know, I know many of you have lost boat loads of money, but I'm saying the complete efficacy of the market remained in tact.  That is great news.  People weren't terribly trapped getting out of positions.  In effect, this is just a normal crazy-crypto correction and profit-taking.\n\nSo where does it go from here?\n\nWell, the markets and exchanges haven't lost efficacy (even if there are some that go in and out because of regualtory hurdles).  It looks like the US tax system is slowly onboarding crypto regulations-wise, so it doesn't seem like it'll be stamped out legally any time soon.  The stock market is still climbing, which means a lot of people are still looking for yield and trading opportunities.  And as the crypto marketspace matures there will be setbacks like this as price seeking behavior tries to cope with governments trying to cope.  So, the tools are still available to invest, move forward, and develop, which in the long-run is good for crypto prices.  However, in the near-term there's a lot of pain as people panic thinking that they're losing everything.\n\n*As a caveat: It's also reasonable to experience some sea changes coming along as BTC gets replaced as the go-to crypto for newer entrants (noobs).  It's also reasonable to assume that as the rest of the world watches BTC as the proxy for the entire world of crypto, in reality another smaller coin is positioning itself to be the next biggest player in total market cap.  That seasawing effect will probably cause some pain as people digest the idea that crypto is more than BTC and BTC loses some of its relevance going forward.*\n\nThe only formal suggestion I have for the moment is to kick back and watch a movie/drink a beer.  It'll be better than freaking out about a week's worth of loses.  If you're below your break evens I'm sorry I might add.  Welcome to the bagholding club with the rest of us.  However, without the overall picture of the economy changing and straight up illegalization of crypto things will start to look up again, but hopefully more in moderation so that people stop freaking out and the capital remains available to develop and use blockchain technology.\n\n*We're all gonna make it!*\n\n*Minderbinder*\n\n[Disclaimer: All the opinions expressed in this article are my own and are in no way meant to be construed as investment advice. Please exercise your own judgement in any investment or money management ideas that you happen to undertake in the traditional finance or cryptocurrency spaces. All images come from either personal files or websites that allow free images and each has an inline citation for reference. Good luck out there!]",
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      "body": "@@ -251,29 +251,19 @@\n ies \n-is in itself a\n+are\n  bubble\n+s\n , bu\n@@ -331,16 +331,21 @@\n t other \n+fiat \n currenci\n@@ -351,21 +351,24 @@\n ies \n-it's\n+their\n  value\n- is\n+s are\n  rel\n@@ -466,16 +466,26 @@\n rrencies\n+, or both,\n  is yet \n",
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      "body": "Thanks, read and upvoted your article! I completely agree that \"Price comparisons do not themselves indicate bubbles.\", this is a strong underlying argument. People could easily argue that the inflation of the US dollar, as well as other fiat currencies is in itself a bubble, but this isn't a widely accepted argument because priced against other currencies it's value is relatively stable. Something will \"pop\", at least temporarily, whether that's fiat or cryptocurrencies is yet to be determined.",
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      "body": "Great article.   It depends how you frame it, which I think you eloquently put.  However, bubbles are all about hype and making headlines, so the term becomes meaningless as BTC does whatever it wants, right?  Traction among asset classes gains as more people begin to trade it, thus a framework is formed around the underlying to determine its value.  BTC, unknown at $.06, is now $14680 on /XBTF8 on light volume as I write this.  Light volume means that there aren't a lot of people exchanging contracts, which inhibits a meaningful marketplace and price discovery due to liquidity problems.  As such, we don't know what the price should be, only what it is today placed in a developing framework that will bear out in the coming months and potentially years.  The point is this.  Price comparisons do not themselves indicate bubbles.  Relative value indicates value and until recently there was nothing to compare BTC against except USD and alts because it wasn't getting traded *against* anything.  Time will tell if it's in a bubble or not, but I think there's a few things that'll have to come to pass first.  [I just wrote an article on this if you want to check it out.](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@minderbinder/when-should-the-bubble-bother-you-and-your-crypto-nest-egg)  Again great article!  Thanks for sharing!  Love your posts.",
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      "body": "This is a great post and it's odd that market caps and price aren't taken into account with so many people investing in coins.  Everyone loves a lottery ticket.  In the meantime, I still don't understand why the market capitalization page only uses coins in circulation.  It's kind of misleading.  What do you think?",
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