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      "parent_author": "",
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      "author": "mxcrypt",
      "permlink": "bitcoin-finds-rock-bottom-in-historic-capitulation-warning-very-detailed-ta",
      "title": "Bitcoin Finds \"Rock Bottom\" in Historic Capitulation (Warning: Very Detailed TA)!",
      "body": "![BTC_MacroView_Steem.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmc9mUXogvJj1bcZEcRL8evQit8cTNRpqupVm3fy1yCjtr/BTC_MacroView_Steem.png)\n\nFor those of you in the crypto world, this has been a historic day indeed. Following bitcoin has over the past couple months has been a trip upon a highway to hell paved upon the deck of the Titanic as it hits a flaming iceberg! However, I think that now we can FINALLY rest a little bit easier as I truly believe that this correction has found its bottom. In this post, I will do my best to prove this to you using technical analysis. If you have patience and follow along, you will find that everything lines up beautifully.  \n\n## Lets start with the big picture!\n\nAs things were going down, I kept seeing TA after TA focusing on and predicting the behavior of these last waves down. However, not many of these analyses took a step back to look at the big picture. Our journey into this correction actually began quite a long time ago. On our way up from last summer, BTC was making great strides, eventually culminating at 20k$ in a powerful series of impulse waves. In early November wave 3 reached its peak which lofted the price to nearly 8k$. This was a tremendous achievement for Bitcoin, and for cryptocurrency in general, and finally we were beginning to be taken seriously. \n\nHowever midway during the month our progress into the stratosphere was arrested! It appeared that dramatic setback had hit the market, which had driven the price down to a meager 5.6k$. It was a brief but important moment as the seeds of our current destruction had been laid. According to the Elliot Wave Theory, every 1-3-5 impulse demands a correction. The theory also states that, all supports and resistances of the requisite correction are determined largely by the geometry of the impulse wave. \n\n## The Key to the Mysteries ...\nNow, it is clear to me that one of the most basic tenants of Wave Theory has been overlooked by the majority of analysts (myself included). **The correction should always retrace into the territory of wave 4 of the previous impulse waves.** In my post yesterday, I argued for a bottom around 7.8k$. This seemed like a natural target to me, and it was well argued by many analysts that I highly respect. However,  upon waking up today, I was surprised to see money still draining away from the market. The bottom had not yet come in! \n\nUpon looking back on my previous analysis, it was clear that something basic had been missed. Suddenly, the big picture became clear to me - of course we could retrace further. 7.8k$ was only the top of the zone of the previous wave 4!! The target zone was then clear. 5.6-7.8k$ is where we should land. The average of these two numbers is about 6.7k$. **Do these numbers look familiar to you??**\n\n## Wave 4 is not Enough to Call the End! \n\nAlthough the agreement with Wave 4 is a nice confluence with wave theory, this fact alone is not enough to call a bottom. **As an analyst, I want to be absolutely convinced based on all available data that my hypothesis holds**. Otherwise, I could simply be misleading myself by confirming my own biases. Worse, I could be misleading my readers, who might lose money based on my calls. Indeed, this is the most difficult part of analysis, and I feel a great amount of responsibility in this regard. Technical analysis is not something to be taken lightly. \n\nSo, let's take a look at the substructure of the correction. Upon examination, we can see that we have a 5-3-5 zigzag correction where none of the Elliot directives have been violated. On the B-C leg of the correction, we find the property of *wave extension* in which the subwaves themselves develop a structure. Upon looking into these substructures, we see again that none of the Elliot rules are violated. This leads me to believe that what I have shown in the figure above is a valid count of this correction. \n\n## Rock Bottom - Lets take a Look!\n\n![BTC_Wave5_steem.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmNW8CrHAFXzryP736LYyjMSa9aYmKsJCZFryBatYByZcg/BTC_Wave5_steem.png)\n\nAnd so with brave hearts and stolid minds, let us peer into the conditions of disaster. In the figure above, I have zoomed in onto the final waves of the B-C leg of our corrective process. In particular, I want to take a look at wave (5) and note the meticulously upheld substructure of this wave. The \"(Impulse) Wave 4 Landing Zone\" has also been imported from the previous picture so we can see clearly how it maps into our current situation. The subwaves of this wave have also been labeled. \n\nAt the bottom of the correction, we find ourselves at the *fifth subwave of the fifth wave of the B-C leg of the zigzag correction*. According to all principles of TA, this should be the end of the bear market and we should be inclined to look for indications of reversal in trend to the upside. Prior to this, the price is basically in freefall looking for support. As we travel down our final subwave, we notice a massive uptick in volume around the 6.7k$ level. At this point (which corresponds nicely to our *landing zone*) we are undergoing a process of **capitulation**. At some point, the sellers will have driven the price so low and everything become too cheap. Nobody will want to sell anymore - they will have missed their opportunity to sell at a good price! \n\n## Longs and Shorts Gauge Market Sentiment \nThe ratio of long positions to short positions is an important gauge of market sentiment. In particular, when this ratio becomes abnormally low (i.e. particularly when this ratio drops to 1:1 and below) one can define for a process of capitulation. In the plot below, the long/short ratio is plotted for this final subwave of our zigzag correction. \n\n![BTC_LongsShorts_Steem.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdXTrXgS6vjHJWSxfh49VHewEYCDyrzpGej2hasQeq3BY/BTC_LongsShorts_Steem.png)\n\nIn our current market, we note that the number ratio of long positions to short positions dropped steeply during subwaves 3 and 5 of the final wave. Subwave 3 brought us to my original target of 7.8k$ which was the top of our wave 4 landing zone. After a short recovery, Subwave 5 has brought us down further to the 6.4-6.7k$ range which is roughly in the middle of our projected *Wave 4 Landing Zone*. \n\nThis action on the ratio of short and long positions verifies that the process of capitulation is occurring, and that the market has finally corrected. The wave structure can clearly be identified on the longs/shorts ratio. Also, this indicator has since stabilized to pre-correction levels indicating that some stability is coming back into the market. Also note the higher low on the RSI of this indicator, which suggests the subtle building of bullish sentiment. \n\n## Is a Bullish Sentiment Building?\n\nIf this moment truly reflects the process of capitulation, then signs of bullish sentiment should be visible across all indicators. In addition to fancy techniques such as the long short ratio, we can examine RSI and MACD for signs of a change. These are plotted below, for the current timeframe. \n\n![BTC_Indicators_Steem.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmW9EbE9ZxnR4C7fDXZU8XKEqVVTk1Kz5nxGtPQRhNZ2DX/BTC_Indicators_Steem.png)\n\nImmediately, we see signs of bullish divergence on the MACD chart as indicated by the higher low. Also note that the wave structure can clearly be seen as mapping onto the MACD. Most importantly, we are starting to notice a curling upward of the MACD along with higher lows which clearly suggests a bullish sentiment. Remember though that MACD is a *lagging indicator* which suggests that we need a bit more time to truly confirm the trend. Interestingly, the subwave structure can also be seen on the RSI along with a similar pattern of bullish divergence (higher lows) pointing to exciting times ahead!\n\n## The Correction in Retrospect\nOverall, I believe that this correction has been a very good thing for the market. Remember that corrections are a part of the additive growth process, and since our market is young and flourishing we should them to be swift and violent. Now, after a very difficult two months, a very clear picture has emerged for bitcoin. In my my view, the confluence of indicators with wave theory I have outlined here is truly magnificent for it elucidates almost every core principle of the market action with immense precision. I truly wish that you too can find beauty in this process of correction, and I hope  that you have matured emotionally, psychologically, and spiritually through your experience of its movements. \n\n<center>\n*Confidence 5.0/5.0*\n@mxcrypt\n</center>\n\n### A Link to my Previous Incorrect Analysis\nhttps://steemit.com/bitcoin/@mxcrypt/btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators\n\n## **Standard Legal Note** \nThese are solely my own ideas! This is by no means professional financial advice and I cannot be held accountable for any investment decisions undertaken by reading this article!\n\nFound this helpful? Feed me some crypto!\n----------------------------------------\nBTC Wallet :3PPENyabp2gsEfNahLyhMsgdwtjbodrtFm\nETH Wallet :0x7792cB95e9faa8B4049c88dD0dD567Cb843bc696\nLTC Wallet :MXDmNsYKccTxnyXe4vpq3XrbstHsKex9S9",
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      "author": "mxcrypt",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -205,16 +205,85 @@\n unlikely\n+. This is historical support #2, which I did not mention in this post\n ). In my\n",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "Looks like we ended up with an extended fifth wave! Quite interesting that this historical support failed. Prices are now stabilizing around 6.8k$ (which was my most pessimistic scenario and I considered unlikely). In my mind, this almost qualifies as a panic sell - which is quite cool to be a part of actually!! It doesn't occur so often! It seems that BTCUSD long positions have recovered substantially as well with huge volume. I think we finally hit the bottom. There is nothing left to sell!",
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      "body": "I’m a nerd, and am always interested in people’s technical analysis.\n\nKeep up the good work!",
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      "author": "mxcrypt",
      "permlink": "re-jackorobin-re-mxcrypt-btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators-20180204t200359202z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -117,20 +117,17 @@\n rom \n-*\n hype\n-*\n  and \n-*\n pump\n@@ -139,9 +139,8 @@\n dump\n-*\n  dyn\n@@ -278,16 +278,18 @@\n viable. \n+%0A%0A\n For exam\n",
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      "parent_permlink": "re-mxcrypt-btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators-20180204t193456851z",
      "author": "mxcrypt",
      "permlink": "re-jackorobin-re-mxcrypt-btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators-20180204t200359202z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -526,16 +526,17 @@\n al proof\n+s\n  of conc\n",
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      "parent_permlink": "re-mxcrypt-btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators-20180204t193456851z",
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      "permlink": "re-jackorobin-re-mxcrypt-btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators-20180204t200359202z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -40,17 +40,17 @@\n analysis\n-.\n+,\n  I think\n",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "Although I am not too into fundamental analysis. I think that the market is actually in the process of moving away from *hype* and *pump and dump* dynamics. Blockchain is becoming a serious technology, and many of the best computer scientists in the world are working on making it viable. For example, check out the Cardano (ADA) project if you are not familiar with them already. These guys are doing serious work in cryptography and have published many peer reviewed academic papers demonstrating theoretical and experimental proof of concept of their work. I really admire IOHK for their rigorous approach, and I hope that projects like ADA coin set the tone for the future of blockchain. \n\nhttps://www.cardanohub.org/en/academic-papers/\n\nhttps://iohk.io/research/papers/",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "Of course - Anything can happen so say Murphy's Law and Schrödinger's Cat! However, I hope for everyone still holding on to their position that this TA pans out. To me it looks solid as we have already rejected the rock bottom crash scenario pretty hard. I'm glad you enjoyed the analysis!",
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      "body": "Hello mxcrypt!\n\nCongratulations! This post has been randomly Resteemed! For a chance to get more of your content resteemed join the [Steem Engine Team](https://steemit.com/steemit/@steemengineteam/join-steemengine-today)",
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  "timestamp": "2018-02-04T19:45:15",
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      "parent_author": "mxcrypt",
      "parent_permlink": "btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators",
      "author": "ormism",
      "permlink": "re-mxcrypt-btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators-20180204t194351860z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -62,13 +62,8 @@\n  ex \n-bear \n pit \n",
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{
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    {
      "parent_author": "mxcrypt",
      "parent_permlink": "btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators",
      "author": "ormism",
      "permlink": "re-mxcrypt-btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators-20180204t194351860z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "I heard a story that a well known analyst went to work for an ex bear pit trader who was now ceo of a trading firm. The analyst called the bottom of the market using well established TA. \n\nWhen the price reached the target, the analyst confidently stated that this was the bottom, as per analysis.\n\nThat’s bullshit, cried the ex trader, picked up the phone and instructed someone on the floor dump a large amount of stock in the market, the price slid a further 5%.\n\n😁\n\nThanks for the post! And let’s hope the bulls are feeling feisty!",
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  "timestamp": "2018-02-04T19:38:42",
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      "parent_permlink": "bitcoin",
      "author": "mxcrypt",
      "permlink": "btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators",
      "title": "BTC Correction to Complete Near 7.8k$ (Confluence of Indicators)",
      "body": "@@ -3075,16 +3075,124 @@\n l cycle.\n+ Of course, anything is possible, but to me this seems like the most likely scenario given the current data.\n  Undenia\n",
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      "voter": "jackorobin",
      "author": "mxcrypt",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "bitcoin",
      "author": "mxcrypt",
      "permlink": "btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators",
      "title": "BTC Correction to Complete Near 7.8k$ (Confluence of Indicators)",
      "body": "@@ -1702,16 +1702,24 @@\n t zigzag\n+ B-C leg\n , we saw\n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"bitcoin\",\"cryptocurrency\",\"litecoin\",\"ethereum\",\"money\"],\"users\":[\"mxcrypt\"],\"image\":[\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmRMsLZPDKudA8dD9DtD3ERo1qaoJgK7xn9ZJki17wRcYb/BTCUSD_steem.png\",\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmPzddG4JB5wPy2oh6cKgMdQryqWekARqGf4PrFRQqdaHU/BTCRATIO_steem.png\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\"}"
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      "parent_author": "mxcrypt",
      "parent_permlink": "btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators",
      "author": "jackorobin",
      "permlink": "re-mxcrypt-btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators-20180204t193456851z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "Though i am not a analytics and not sound knowledge in technical graphs but as i have seen the whole scenerio of cryptocurrency ,this market is only based on news and hypes.it effects deeply rather than any other thing.Its my opinion only and may be i am wrong.thank you for this elaboration.",
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{
  "trx_id": "d42903b03b4723d13e688383c55b03c1006baf14",
  "block": 19583117,
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  "timestamp": "2018-02-04T19:28:03",
  "op": [
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    {
      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "bitcoin",
      "author": "mxcrypt",
      "permlink": "btc-correction-to-complete-near-7-8kusd-confluence-of-indicators",
      "title": "BTC Correction to Complete Near 7.8k$ (Confluence of Indicators)",
      "body": "![BTCUSD_steem.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmRMsLZPDKudA8dD9DtD3ERo1qaoJgK7xn9ZJki17wRcYb/BTCUSD_steem.png)\n\nIt seems that everyone is still worried about BTC these days, and reasonably so. However, I believe that a confluence of indicators suggest that we are very close to the end of this long hard bear market. By my count, this correction conforms fairly well to a WXYXZ style correction (though there are valid alternate counts). Currently,  I believe that we are completing the last wave downward on our final zigzag leg (labeled X-Z). Remember that zigzags always have a 5-3-5 rule. Each of these is labeled on the chart. \n\n### The end of the Bear: A Confluence of Indicators. \n\nLast week, (during wave 3), we experienced a very hard bounce off the long term historical support level of 7.8k$. I think that this range may be tested again on this final leg down.  By my count, I would expect that prices may continue to decline to touch these levels before moving back up again. However, I do not think that 7.8k$ will be breached due to this being a historical support level. This notion is supported by the strong surge in volume when the price attempted to breech this support. \n\n## MACD Shows Bullish Divergence \n\nNote the MACD shows two crossover points which correspond to the (Y) point as well as the (3) wave of this current (X-Z) on the larger degree of trend.  What stands out to me is that these crossover points on the MACD show a **higher low**. This property, known as bullish divergence, indicates that the sellers are running out of steam and that demand will potentially pick back up. \n\n## RSI Shows Support Levels \n\nNow for the RSI. With moving up of wave (4) on our current zigzag, we saw a swing into the *neutral zone* of 30-60. The RSI shows also a series of higher lows suggesting again that the bears are running out of steam. I see two RSI support zones, first at 35, and again at 30. As we make our attempt to push downward to test 7.8k$,  I expect that this support will be tested and held (in confluence with the MACD). \n\n\n## The bears are getting tired ... \n\nI also want to make a note of the fact that the ratio BTCUSDLONG/BTCUSDSHORT has snapped back from its low, and the corresponding RSI has moved back into the neutral zone. Currently, for every 1.0 BTC in a short position, there are 2.267BTC in a long position. Compare this to the deepest part of this last leg down, where the the ratio was about 1.0BTCLONG/1.0BTCSHORT.  In other words there are much fewer people shorting the market - leading me to believe that BTC will soon begin to rise once again. \n\n![BTCRATIO_steem.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPzddG4JB5wPy2oh6cKgMdQryqWekARqGf4PrFRQqdaHU/BTCRATIO_steem.png)\n\n\nTo break below the historical 7.8k$ support would require another huge surge in sell volume (panic selling). Additionally, the MACD bullish divergence would have to break along with both RSI support levels. My intuition is that the price may test this level, and bounce back perhaps forming a *leading first wave diagonal* to initiate a new bull cycle. Undeniably, this market has been a difficult learning experience for us all, and I hope that everyone has developed a healthy respect for such powerful market tides.\n\n\n<center>\n*Take care during the end of this correction!*\n*Confidence 4.0/5.0*\n@mxcrypt\n</center>\n\n## **Standard Legal Note** \nThese are solely my own ideas! This is by no means professional financial advice and I cannot be held accountable for any investment decisions undertaken by reading this article!\n\nFound this helpful? Feed me some crypto!\n----------------------------------------\nBTC Wallet :3PPENyabp2gsEfNahLyhMsgdwtjbodrtFm\nETH Wallet :0x7792cB95e9faa8B4049c88dD0dD567Cb843bc696\nLTC Wallet :MXDmNsYKccTxnyXe4vpq3XrbstHsKex9S9",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"bitcoin\",\"cryptocurrency\",\"litecoin\",\"ethereum\",\"money\"],\"users\":[\"mxcrypt\"],\"image\":[\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmRMsLZPDKudA8dD9DtD3ERo1qaoJgK7xn9ZJki17wRcYb/BTCUSD_steem.png\",\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmPzddG4JB5wPy2oh6cKgMdQryqWekARqGf4PrFRQqdaHU/BTCRATIO_steem.png\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\"}"
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  "timestamp": "2018-02-03T17:50:51",
  "op": [
    "claim_reward_balance",
    {
      "account": "mxcrypt",
      "reward_steem": "0.000 STEEM",
      "reward_sbd": "0.122 SBD",
      "reward_vests": "45.013385 VESTS"
    }
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{
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  "timestamp": "2018-02-03T17:37:21",
  "op": [
    "comment",
    {
      "parent_author": "kurttasche",
      "parent_permlink": "3-red-flags-of-cryptocurrency-scams",
      "author": "mxcrypt",
      "permlink": "re-kurttasche-3-red-flags-of-cryptocurrency-scams-20180203t173522944z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -644,8 +644,138 @@\n urrency.\n+%0A%0AI would much rather invest in a young low-mid cap coin that looks legit for 3-5x gains than some random ICO which promises 100x.\n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"cryptocurrency\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\"}"
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  "timestamp": "2018-02-03T17:35:54",
  "op": [
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    {
      "parent_author": "kurttasche",
      "parent_permlink": "3-red-flags-of-cryptocurrency-scams",
      "author": "mxcrypt",
      "permlink": "re-kurttasche-3-red-flags-of-cryptocurrency-scams-20180203t173522944z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -123,36 +123,37 @@\n s a \n-whitepaper to see if project\n+nicely constructed whitepaper\n ? Is\n",
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{
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      "parent_author": "kurttasche",
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      "author": "mxcrypt",
      "permlink": "re-kurttasche-3-red-flags-of-cryptocurrency-scams-20180203t173522944z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "Also, I would shy away from all projects which generally do not look legitimate. Always take a look to see if a project has a whitepaper to see if project? Is it well compiled? Also look at the coin's/company's history - does it have a history? Have they built a working product, even a beta? Or is there just a list of promises ... \n\n Look into the team ... do they seem legitimate? Use common sense, and do not be afraid to cut ties. Remember bitconnect ... for example. A lot of people were wiped out by this, and it seemed like a legitimiate project at first. Always be cautious, and always be skeptical. There is no easy money in cryptocurrency.",
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  "op": [
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    {
      "voter": "ajkapss",
      "author": "mxcrypt",
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{
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  "timestamp": "2018-02-02T19:24:03",
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    {
      "parent_author": "cryptoaddict8",
      "parent_permlink": "re-haejin-bitcoin-btc-mid-day-update-a-ghosting-fractal-20180202t183640436z",
      "author": "mxcrypt",
      "permlink": "re-cryptoaddict8-re-haejin-bitcoin-btc-mid-day-update-a-ghosting-fractal-20180202t192250074z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -338,17 +338,17 @@\n  on \n-USDT\n+BTC\n  for \n-BTC\n+USDT\n .\n",
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  "timestamp": "2018-02-02T19:22:51",
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      "parent_author": "cryptoaddict8",
      "parent_permlink": "re-haejin-bitcoin-btc-mid-day-update-a-ghosting-fractal-20180202t183640436z",
      "author": "mxcrypt",
      "permlink": "re-cryptoaddict8-re-haejin-bitcoin-btc-mid-day-update-a-ghosting-fractal-20180202t192250074z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "Unlikely. USDT only accounts for about 2G$ in market cap. Compare this to BTC which is about 150G$ post correction. Even if all of USDT was liquidated completely into bitcoin, then it would shift the BTC price by at MOST 1.3%. USDT is also used to short other big coins such as ETH so we are likely looking at less than a 1% price action on USDT for BTC.",
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      "parent_author": "haejin",
      "parent_permlink": "link-btc-shows-a-pattern-setup-for-a-potential-trend-reversal",
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      "permlink": "re-haejin-link-btc-shows-a-pattern-setup-for-a-potential-trend-reversal-20180202t035750813z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "Hey @haejin. Nice analysis on LINK. Also your point on 'bidding up' makes a lot of sense to me and I think this aspect of investing is often overlooked. btw, I am going to go ahead and drop a coin request for CND?? This coin shot out of nowhere and has remained strong throughout the correction. I would love to hear your opinions on it.",
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