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      "body": "    Polar thinking leads to paradoxes, where feeding one end of a pair, we give rise to the opposite. Similarly, in times of the biggest optimism, there is this unintuitive counter-force, which hides in the bushes, like a tiger. This natural cycles were proven many times by history - enlightenment caused romantics, and they caused critical realists. Fall of communism preceded the biggest capitalist debates within the former Soviet union, and Third reich didn't last for 1000 years, but led to the fall and debasement of the aryan race. I dare to identify possible predators waiting in the Bitcoin space right now.\n\n### Bitcoin hard forks\n\nThere is this notion of One truth, which is a consensus of blockchain. But if you hard fork, are there more Truths ? This is very distressing idea to the fundamental design of Bitcoin. This distress might have caused prolonging the scaling debate, because there was an assumption that truth must only be One. Why not fork right away ? A compromise happened in the form of Segwit2X, but it seems it was bitter for all parties. You could not feel the satisfaction of such resolution. Bitcoin Cash happened, pre-Segwit chain. If there was a force, big enough to stall the development for 3 years, then it could keep the chain alive.\n\nSecond notion is this of deflationary Bitcoin, hard cap of mineable amount. But if you hard fork, does it cause inflation ? Distribution of hash power and capital flowing to multiple chains. Thats another distressing idea to the fundamental design of Bitcoin.\n\nThis two problems were solved by labelling any other coin an Altcoin. But what if an altcoin has “Bitcoin\" in its name, and has capitalisation as one of the top 10 cryptocurrencies ? What if an altcoin could have a network effect of the top players ? Usual requirement is total work done, or the longest chain, but I remember times when Ethereum was heavily mocked by Bitcoin fans. \n\nThe third notion is of Bitcoin being apolitical. Consensus rules are not due to political whims, but mathematics. But is that so ? As rules might seem mathematical, the proposals of rules are actually political, therefore Bitcoin was never apolitical. Nice analysis [here](https://www.oii.ox.ac.uk/blog/the-blockchain-paradox-why-distributed-ledger-technologies-may-do-little-to-transform-the-economy/).\n\n### ICO hype\n\nTokens. Tokens everywhere. The lowest possible price of an asset is somewhere in the ballpark of its real world value and usefulness. Even those whitepaper creators have hard time defining that. ICO as an equivalent to IPO are supposed to disrupt the VC market. But there is a reason why IPO is one of the later stages of company not first. In the beginning you want to have smart money, a strong partner with network and industry experience. This will not be provided by an anonymous mass. If you look at it through these lenses, ICO can disrupt the crowdfunding space. You can more easily sell your token than a participation on Kickstarter. Without some entanglement to the real world, there is no guarantee it’s going to withstand the tough times. And when those times will come, will ICOs be hodlers or not ? They have to eat and fuel their runways, and that would probably involve some FIAT. \n\n### Legislation\n\nOverall capitalisation is growing, which can not go under radar. If they can ban it in China, they can do it anywhere. If not straight ban, then regulation. In the upcoming adoption phase, we need to focus more on how to merge our legislative systems with blockchain. And that means merging with upcoming legislation. Blockchain and blockchain applications which want to survive, will need to be legally compliant, or they could provide advisory how to make a proper legal space. I think that Vitalik with Putin might get [that](https://www.coindesk.com/vladimir-putin-vitalik-buterin-discuss-ethereum-opportunities-recent-forum/). Another interesting cases are Estonian cryptocurrency [proposal](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/23/estonia-cryptocurrency-called-estcoin.html) or Maltese music blockchain [initiative](https://opm.gov.mt/en/Documents/Invitation%20to%20Public%20eHearing%20October%202_v%20F1.pdf).\n\nThere are things like Moneros anonymity or overall decentralisation of crypto space, but these phenomena will not overcome the regulation of internet providers and their physical cables. You could enforce usage of decrypting software on internet connection points, and allow encrypted information only for licensed channels.\n\n### Be your own bank\n\nAnother popular notion of Bitcoin is being your own bank. A peer-to-peer network of banks, where everyone wants be a full-fledged autonomous entity. If we look at the history, majority of people don’t want to have full responsibility and freedom. Eventually, they will outsource that responsibility either to other person, or to an abstract entity, like the Bank. Keeping your private keys is a nice idea, but i’m not sure if most people are comfortable having their pension funds under their beds, and I mean that literally, in Trezor.\n\n    All of these phenomena are more or less disputed in the Bitcoin space, but they are mostly belittled by cheering the new all time highs. Every Bitcoin hodler knows that price went always up, but do they know that every hype cycle did burst ? So far Bitcoin believers were tested with multiple bursts, but there was never a test whether you bet on the right Bitcoin truth. Because if there are going to be multiple truths, you will have to deal with that first on personal psychological level, and then on technical implementation level. And if you look at how complex living systems evolve, it is never a single solution. If something has to go to the moon, it is not Bitcoin, but the whole ecosystem of crypto solutions, which will find their specialisation.",
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      "body": "Do you remember times when people from Europe were migrating to America because of better life ? Ok, you don't, but you might've read about it. People were moving for better living conditions, new unoccupied land, or simply running away from old europian monarchs. I have a hypothesis, that the most life-capable beings are those, who are able to cope with risk and fear, cross the line of comfort zone, and explore new unknown areas. In this manner, America inherited the best ones in the world, and I think this is one of the reasons why America is the wealthiest country, according to several measurements.\t\n****\nAnother reason for nurturing wealth was freedom. Freedom allows to test new extremes, new uniqueness. Without freedom, all this variability would be hammered to the mean. Limits, as opposed to freedom, are conservation of what is considered normal. Greater limits leads to greater uniformity. And uniformity kills innovation. Innovation comes from creativity, and creativity comes from experimentation, lot of failures, craziness and freedom to be unique. This is not allowed in limitating environment. I think this is one of the most important trait of America, or it was in the past at least.\n\n**Where are we now ?**\n\nIn my humble opinion , governments of the world are amazingly lost, or confused would a better term. The system is overly bureaucratic, overly limitating, and the tech people are living in their own race, where  speeding and breaking rules is the new standard. Old structures within the state institutions, are trying to take their breath, but they are just too slow. Innovation comes faster increasingly, and they can just watch. It doesn't matter ,if we are talking about the US, Europe or Asia, every one is more or less limitating to the experimentation, whether it's governments regulations or cultural conventions.\n\n**What to do ?**\n\nI have a proposal. It's aimed mostly at big capital, Google, Apple are some another giant which may arise within few years. Build you own country ! Country with its own rules, no or minimal bureaucracy, no patent trolling, no restrictions. I know it sounds utopian. We should look at the numbers, this idea would be feasible when costs for lobbying the governments are bigger than this experiment. Even if it's not, I think it could be a good investment, consider it diversification.  Imagine attracting the best talent in the world in every possible profession, and imigrate them to one place,  let them start fresh, let them interact without the burden of the past. Globalism / multiculturalism in its purest form at one place.\n\n**How to do it ?**\n\nThis one is bigger. There is simply no new unoccupied physical land on earth. We could consider moon or mars, but that's just too costly and extreme. There was this one project by [Seasteading institute](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading), it was backed by Peter Thiel as well. They plan to create a new society on seasteads in the international waters. It might be one option.\n\nThe other option, is to buy some land from some country, and build there a separate city. It might be hard, but everyone has its price.\nI have another hypothesis, that we are currently at state bonds bubble. Private capital is overly trusting governments to collect their earnings through taxation and regulations, without lowering the costs of bureaucracy. Without restructuring, government institutions in this form can not catch up with innovation speed, they will loose, sooner or later. There is this restructuring emotion in the world going on, if you watch news. Arabian spring, protests in south america, Ukraine ? If my hypothesis is correct, we will see more of this in the first-world countries in coming years. Only counter-argument would  be salvation from some unpredictable economic stimulus from private sector innovation in spite of governments limitations, but I rather doubt it. During this restructuring of governments, there is greater pressure for optimization of costs or selling unnecessary baggage. And that will be ideal moment for buying some land.\n\nI heard that Silicon Valley is living in its own world, there might even be some separatists ideas growing. Well, lets imagine being Silicon Valley as independent country with power of setting its own rules without external limitation.",
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