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      "title": "BTC and S&P500 enjoy positive correlation, Bitcoin wont be safe haven for a while",
      "body": "**This is not the first time** we have observed, in fact its easily the third time this year, that BTC and the stock market have suffered significant price drops in the exact same time frames.\n\nBTC / SPX price drop Jan29th to Feb9th\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZ7TUBYfqV5YyDggfcibJWAAT4ddCw2mPbFVY8VrPghrj/image.png) \n\nMarch 8th -April 2nd\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmU8L7ybSzNvN5UtTAALU9Swu5H6nsLPPYqKoT22tVKfjN/image.png)\n\nSeptember 20th until Today\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUQFK44AZHHy9jAZhJR3tdqRXSakDFg5GfRHu92HBaU71/image.png) \n\n\n\nGold vs Bitcoin\n(Can you find the correlation? Probably Not)\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZzNpUu17HxPchrL9AXfjkWuZdtVkhFQX5Pif8YNWGAaa/image.png) \n\nMy previous blog about Gold vs Bitcoin: https://steemit.com/trading/@renej/btc-can-t-be-compared-to-gold-not-yet\n\n\n**If people still believe,** crypto and financial markets have no connection at all, you probably should get back to your books and study a little harder. Its time you face the reality. The incredible amount of exchanges that are accessible to retail and institutions have made the crypto industry extremely accessible for the capital investment and withdrawal. \n\n**Currently all industries** are suffering, transports, homebuilding, mining, you name the industry, its probably in the red, so is crypto. The current believe that bitcoin is a safe haven hedge has been disproved 3 times this year already. (charts above) \n\n**There is further data,** that Bitcoin is indeed classed as a risky investment class and not as a safe-haven. Earlier this year I had pointed out the negative correlation of BTC and the VIX, in fact it is so incredibly well correlated, (in a negative way) data at this point can no longer be considered as pure luck.\n\nMy blog| BTC and its negative correlation with VIX  https://steemit.com/trading/@renej/bitcoin-vs-vix-or-a-perfect-negative-correlation\n\nBTC VIX negative correlation Chart\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVvHBJqnBUaHn41LZG32rts5ZSCoxPaLjiGaQFU3Kfz6H/image.png)\n\n**2018 was the first year** of data collection that can be taken on a serious note. If financial markets suffer, so does the crypto industry. There have been a few articles this year for Bitcoin’s chart being the same as the gold chart before the ETF, comparing decades of gold prices to Bitcoin. There is a chance they could be right, but if you look at live facts and data, you may wonder if Bitcoin already has found its place on the equity markets. (or you can keep trying to find the ONE chart of a different commodity, somewhere out there, that might, just might, look the same as Bitcoin….)\n\nMy previous Blog: https://steemit.com/trading/@renej/bitcoin-vs-vix-or-a-perfect-negative-correlation\n\n\n**Why would Bitcoin not be a safe haven?**\nThere are 2 reasons it can’t be a safe-haven for now (perhaps it will be in a decade or so) \n\n**Reason 1: BTC Futures**, Futures of bitcoin are traded by instructional investors. Institutional investors see bitcoin as a new financial class that carries great risk. Try convey a professional investor that Bitcoin is such a safe asset to invest in if it had a price movement of +300% and -80% within 365 days. Even more extreme price movements could be witnessed for the majority of the altcoins out there. As Bitcoin rises, the risk acceptance of investors increases (or its probably already at the top). S&P500 and Bitcoin have dropped significantly 3 times this year in the same time frame. These are important signals that tell us, big money is moving out of crypto, when general risk acceptance for the money market dries out. (It could be compared to biotech, it is common to follow biotech ETF prices to assess the risk acceptance on the capital markets). \n\n**Reason 2: Bitcoin and top 20 coins need to move independently.**\nIn my short blog earlier on this year (btc vs gold), I had stated that bitcoin and altcoins need to have independent price movements. As long as Bitcoin represents the rest of the crypto industry, Bitcoin can’t be a safe haven, as it reflects too many risky classes at the time being. Perhaps the individual well read crypto fanatic, understands the differences of Zcash, Monero, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, IOTA etc. They all have different purposes and in fact have created their own crypto asset segments, but for the general public, the rest of the world, its all well, just Bitcoin. It is going to take a few more years before the acceptance of various segments within crypto to take place and creat highly capitalized ETFs reflecting each segment within. Such a day will arrive, but only when crypto has reached a general market usage that improves our way of living and making business as a whole on a daily basis. \n\n**Bitcoin will remain** a high-risk asset class. Only when capital markets are doing well in general, with decent risk taking undertaken in other high-risk classes such as Biotech or IPO participation, as well as the VIX fluctuating at relatively low levels over a longer time period, institutional investors may decide to move into Bitcoin. In the end they are reliable in the face of their clients, if things go south.",
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      "body": "ok call was spot on, high five myself",
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      "title": "BTC, 4400 might cause a short term bull rally for 20% target (not financial advice)",
      "body": "**This is just** an idea for intra-day traders on btc, long term traders should stay away until the dust settles.\n\n**Once again**, its not financial advice, just sharing my ideas and opinions, afterall I'm just a random guy on the internet.\n\n**I currently see** best buy chances for short term profits at 4,400 USD (Non of this is financial advice, I’m just a random guy on the internet)\n\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZT4UNYp9mBWevh96R9bTxaXEQkxGp32woEGqZqTwmp7d/image.png)\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmX2AUCwNLRjBrhLQ1HK3zTAPFs7h3sFG5L6AH2sXfZChu/image.png)\n\n**The chart** above is a weekly candle chart, logarithmic. Inside you see the pitchfork levelled within the monthly channel that we are trading within. If you decide to play the 4,400 level, you want to set targets at around 20% max.\n\n\n\n**This is not** a recommendation for accumulators or non experienced traders. If you buy know and believe this is a new low from here on it will be easier as It cant drop much more, NO, we clearly haven’t left the channel, there is no indication we have hit the low, if you buy now for long term holding, I fear you will give in when you see the price drop further to 3k or lower. And don’t think about putting in small % of your portfolio here and then, this would be the same as death by a thousand little cuts.\n\n**Expect more** volatility, BTC is likely to make a short long run for 20% targets or so in the upcoming days, which once again will cause retail investors to jump in as they believe the bear run is over, and then just get hit by a big bear bus once again. Its gonna happen, calling it now.\n\n\n**There is** even a chance we hit the all time logarithimic support level of  **1,250 USD**.",
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      "body": "**And these news might be better than first perceived.**\n\n**These news might** not cause a positive scream of for the some of the investors or token holders, as the volume here is  pretty low, but there is something extremely positive about this exchange, that many could possibly ignore on first \nglance. When reading the support page of the exchange (which once again currently trades with little volume) this point really stung out to me:\n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdKik2WuPCMdXskFHd3Rc6q4XhgpVKwnegrkSft9vHCex/image.png)\nSource: https://support.radarrelay.com/en/support/home\n\n\n**On top one** of the Medium posts of RadarRelay summarized their exchange as follow:\n“RadarRelay is a wallet-to-wallet decentralized trading platform for Ethereum-based tokens built on the 0x Protocol. Operating an order book, our platform relays orders between peers while never holding any assets in custody. Since launching in October, we’ve already welcomed thousands of users from 150 countries, onboarded 170 tokens, traded over $150m in volume, and grown the team to almost 30.”  https://medium.com/radarrelay/series-a-55a3ab078720\n\n**This project is** based in Colorado United States, has only been funded by Venture Capital Firms and uses heavy legal reviews and Howey Test reviews in order to valuate if a token can be listed on the Wallet to Wallet exchange. The platform had been launched in October 2017 and since then only listed 42 cryptocurrencies (Including Sapien), which should give people greater confidence, that the Sapien Team is doing many things right, if they managed to get listed by an exchange, which first and foremost cares about the legal background and its legitimacy, ensuring a token has a very small chance to one day be categorized as a security by the American Government. \n\n**I have not followed** RadarRelay long enough or studied it deep enough to understand why exactly volume is this low. My take, if an exchange launches and first prioritizes fundamental basics before targeting volume, it may not be off too bad of an exchange in the long run. \n\n**On top Venture Capital** firms normally aim to be on the safer when it comes to legal aspects as well as team capabilities.  Language support in Chinese, Korean, Japanese and Russian is already provided and this project did not have an ICO which tried to attract the masses before coming into existence (rather uncommon in the crypto space so far) \n\n**Now I understand**  that the volume on this exchange is not very promising as of current, on top it may not be very likely that our token will cause Volume or price to become more stable, but it should be a message, if “Sapien.Network” is ready to target exchanges of a serious nature, there is a high chance that at least legally, they pass with flashy colours, as an American Company on American Exchanges. Not bad if you ask me.",
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      "body": "Congratulations @renej! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x80/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/posts.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@renej) Award for the number of posts published\n\n<sub>_Click on the badge to view your Board of Honor._</sub>\n<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>\n\n\n\n> Support [SteemitBoard's project](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)! **[Vote for its witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1)** and **get one more award**!",
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      "author": "renej",
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      "title": "Crypto Sentiment Score | August 22nd | ItsCryptex",
      "body": "#Score #today\n\n**Bulls 4 | Neutral 11   | Bears 17**    \n\n**Summary for today:**\n \nWe have bears in control on the altcoins, yet Bitcoin is currently approving a Bull Sentiment. If you are into alts and wanna take short term trades, its not the time to do so, in my opinion. Safety of cash or tether or tusd is my preferable choice currently.\n\nNot financial advice, you know the drill. \n\nALTCOINS BTC pairings used for summary| ADA, EOS, ETH, ICX, NEO, DASH, ARK, XEM, IOTA, QTUM, NANO, BTCUSD\n#WhyAmIdoingthis?\n\nJust like in stock trading, where you use leading indicators such as 10 year yield bond rates, transport sector indicators and volatility indexes to suggest upcoming market movement, we need similar indicators for the crypto markets.\nThese indicators are not just used to say, ok its time to buy ADA or NEO NOW!!! No they are meant to help you to give you technical support when deciding to trade alts in top 50 range in general, perhaps even in the top 100 range. Again this is a trading technique not an investment technique. (trading - take short swings, investing - do research on projects and hold them over the long run, plus taking profits on bull waves) Trade can generate funds, which you may decide to invest on in larger longterm investments schemes. Well this is my philosophy at least.\n\nMore over these indicators help you to make a decision to move out of a trade and into the safety of cash, even though our greedy mind is telling us - \"But what if I’m wrong and it all moves up\" you need technical and market indicators to tell you, its enough for now, take the profit and move into Bitcoin or into asset pegged crypto like Tether, or into the safety of cash, depending on your decision what is the safest move at that time for you and your portfolio.\n\nOver the past 6 months I have followed the alt charts as much as possible, trying to take advantage of the alt upswing, here is what I learned - I will use ADA, NEO, NANO, IOTA, EOS, ETH, ARK, DASH, BTCUSD as altcoin indicators. If the majority of signs point to bears or bulls I will act on swing trading accordingly\n(Not Financial Advice, Doing this for fun, have a good one)\nLets Start the breakdown!!\n\n** Bitcoin Volume 30 days** (data.bitcoinity.org)\n \n\nVolume is below its 30 day average\n**Signal | Bearish**\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUBvan2gga9VN2yVWPx7pA6pScmNBPpatC7eS8kNiCmYx/image.png)\n\n** Bitcoin Volume 6 months**\n 2 Ascending 6 month Volume bars\n**Signal | Bullish Neutral**\n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRpN6ubXXaomdgcRu1RH6NNawTX925RrPVnhEJcrFLXK9/image.png)\n\n**Total MarketCap Logscale**\nTotal Market Cap is not in a clear upward channel, currently the market cap can be considered to be in a bear trend\n \n**Signal | Bearish**\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWXWEy4hBxKzuwZGaKCRHAqhuovypprdEUuBzmdY7YBmF/image.png)\n\n#ADABTC \nCardano, clear bear down trend\n\n**Signal | Bearish**\n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSNG7HfU7zkHERt8wrqvkhuf2jGf1RPje7ERAn6BXyvwr/image.png)\n\n#ADAUSD\nADAUSD is following its BTC pairing trend, downwardE\n**Signal | Neutral**\n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaScUD4P2wyFeaAQ9hpXAS32ZUZfBTfbHv3SYyJMt7S6Z/image.png)\n\n\n#ETHBTC\nIts not gonna be a report with a lot of words, down trend\n** Signal | Bearish **\n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYMgv9bo8pN7odtUpRxdcqcck1JUDwdEucSNDg1xhAnKS/image.png)\n\n#ETHUSD\n ETHUSD has only one way, that is down, as of current, new lows are expected by the minute\n** Signal | Bearish**\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbezVuxr9VxFqaGr2LKdzPRzLmbAD5uVymy8kx1eHB2oi/image.png) \n\n#ICXBTC\nConsolidation at its current low, benefit of the doubt with a neutral bear rating\n**Signal | Neutral to Bearish**\n\n\n  ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNXNsyC6pSzdEC5L4zjmyv1n1YcD2CUM2RRa7Q4M8fCRY/image.png)\n\n\n#ICXUSD\nI may remove the USD pairing again for the current time, anyway ICX has the same signal paired against USD as well as BTC.\n \n**Signal | Neutral Bearish**\n\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRbCZfVfZ9qZL1WjfGkbAQxtVRUtPxLkHFTjDs9fi644g/image.png)\n\n# NEOBTC\nNEO has failed to break resistance Bear trend has officially begun\n\n** Signal | Bearish **\n  \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVPgLeaqu53G34vAW3SeaakCgZnPCJdijauSB2TkpGCkj/image.png)\n\n# NEOUSD\n\nNEOUSD has the same pattern as NEOBTC ofc.\n\n**Signal | Neutral**\n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcbdyBaaD2HqjvbsV7qtxbqvPtCsAFT4rjZQ561ghAVim/image.png)\n\n# XEMBTC\nNEM which has gained more and more projects making use of their tech, has been suffering further losses and is continuing to do so.\n\n** Signal | Bearish**\n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbP91AF6iBq2xqcwktd3ww1BSxeqmGaP137Nih9N5QFBx/image.png)\n# XEMUSD\n\nNEM against USD is has a more neutral approach than its BTC pairing, but really extreme caution should be placed.\n\n**Signal | Neutral to Bearish**\n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXc6qshzY2vzd2gwXutaGQZusYWZ27Y1pLvLseSvUNutg/image.png)\n\n\n#EOSBTC\nEOS which was the driver and only winner of the March April season, has become a common Altcoin, bear pattern.\n** Signal | Bearish** \n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmd1Xoggue6aPVbLyhkkrtmbVc43bVmvSRBz9ZKAZoRUjP/image.png)\n\n# EOSUSD\n\nEOSUSD is currently in a consolidation zone testing its March low, im not expecting rosy weeks ahead.\n\n** Signal | Neutral - Bearish**\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTsM7bVMQZS9rz7VNNy9MmWpMesYjmuk2zButGYb5Sc1u/image.png)\n \n#OMGBTC\n\nI have decided to include OMG from now on instead of ARK, but OMG is also in a clear bear pattern\n**Signal | Bearish**\n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQme7Buegh461RAw6uSELuQ4pBipmTk3pFKZxwRUzXwJgBT/image.png)\n \n\n\n#OMGUSD\n\n\n13 to 30 moving averages, just had a bear cross over, why am I using these averages? Tbh because it works for me after fiddling around for weeks, no other professional reason.\n\n** Signal | Bearish Neutral**\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmawEDhPgtN1NJRNrjrxL4u35DffE5tLFwi9ENzMNHcCB6/image.png)\n \n#IOTABTC\nIota has consolidated above its low, I’m giving it a pure neutral rating today.\n** Signal | Neutral**\n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXmEmH9ahG5cGbXAA1YdK6icAomctxpFApjonLjp7iua6/image.png)\n\n#IOTAUSD\nIOTA USD is good a reason why I include both pairings, Im tempted to give this pairing abull sentiment, but we have to wait until 5624…. quadrazillion Satoshis are broken\n\n**Signal | Neutral**\n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTA1GE2CYM2geaSYof4Cdw76zgrwoaBQMEY7jg2LVQhKG/image.png)\n\n# DASHBTC\nDash = BEAR\n** Signal | Bearish **\n \n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfNH3EpYvPF1pFpxrb846pJQEzci3FVn8VeeEVP7zniut/image.png)\n \n# DASHUSD\nAgainst USD we are also trading under resistance\n\n** Signal | Bearish**\n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRAazKM4AL662p1xTGuSmTax55CQ1d8FTGwUYJQWihnmt/image.png)\n\n# QTUMBTC\nWhat an incredible long downtrend, its nearly like art.\n** Signal | Bearish**\n\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcTWUaW2BnGhG84HDSmiNrVeY2sWQwWEzBV3Xz6i79bSL/image.png)\n \n # QTUMUSD\nQtum is resting resistance, but we have to give it a bear signal until it is clearly broken.\n\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmd95jvegZ22fSbEwsRbvnAf7K9duqZ42ajjUVnadJHVbR/image.png)\n\n** Signal | Bearish**\n\n#NANOBTC\nNano has more volume and upward movement guys it’s a bull coin currently, \n\n** Signal | Bullish**\n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSTL4mba2yRTx6eqtgFkRCsXRZFKzZ9Xx9VG6sjWcX9T3/image.png)\n\n#NANOUSD\n\nThis paring also trades in a bull sentiment\n \n\n** Signal | Bullish**\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRQPopU7nMpaAKC6vJKkgrdV2mUmpARakgVDvfih5VY98/image.png)\n\n#XRPBTC\nFollowing Ripple and ETH is extremely important has these 2 alts often seem to first movers in the altcoin market. Currently negative crossing with 13 to 30 moving average cross. Neutral to bearish sign\n** Signal | Neutral **\n \n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSSRys1F5NVNKBTmLchUbTXqdTvEM3bUWDNEWmVFu7Rkb/image.png)\n#XRPUSD\n\nXRPUSD had broken support 2 days, normally a strong bear sign, but its holding up, we stick with a neutral signal for now.\n** Signal | Neutral**\n\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWMW7hyKSSuM4cg2Up1nPCNKAeaSzb2YzpkjmqEkVECeU/image.png)\n\n\n\n\n#BTCUSD\nAlways for last we leave bitcoin to get a good overall picture, an uwpward trend is currently most likely in the short term\n** Signal | Bullish** \n\n\n ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXsZxerVCmov6PYXZoEkAfH1bnNhLMFqvNstw6grRPjQm/image.png)\n \n \nFollow me on:       \n\nSapien Network\nhttps://beta.sapien.network/u/rene-maddey/WqA6smQzAg7CJ2fAY\nFacebook\nhttps://www.facebook.com/ItsCryptex-169463597059732/ \nTwitter\nhttps://twitter.com/Its_Cryptex\nSteemit\nhttps://steemit.com/@renej",
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      "title": "Sapien.Network Interview on CoinCentral | Social Platform on Web 3.0",
      "body": "The following post is a glimpse of the interview.\n\nFull Interview:\nhttps://coincentral.com/interview-sapien-team-on-web-3-0-and-a-new-social-world/\n\nTo check the platform:\nhttps://beta.sapien.network/\n\n\nYou say you want to create the best web 3.0 social experience. How do you define web 3.0 and how do you plan to be a key part of it?\n\nWeb 3.0, in a nutshell, is multiple entities sharing value across an open network. Decentralization is a key component as it removes a central point of contact, reduces hacks and data breaches, and provides interoperability and uninterrupted service as there’s no single point of failure. End users will also regain control of their data which can be shared at their discretion.\n\nSapien is creating a tokenized, democratized, reputation-based social news platform that will give users back control of their data, rewards content creators, and fights fake news. \n\nUsers will have the opportunity to opt into the ad revenue sharing program by sharing their data with advertisers or to opt out and have a full, ad-free browsing experience. \n\nBy leveraging the latest Blockchain technologies, we can build a platform that is immune to censorship, guards our free speech, respects our privacy, and persists content throughout humanity’s existence.\n\nWhat are the problems with existing social media and how does Sapien plan to overcome them?\n\nCurrent issues with existing social media range from exploiting user data to not fairly rewarding content creators to using their own platform to fuel their own agendas. The current platforms are essentially taking their users’ data and selling that information to the highest bidder. They’ve also taken advantage of content creators by not fairly rewarding them for their contributions and claiming ownership of all content being posted on their platform.\n\nAt this point, these platforms are free to do as they please with someone’s content and data and they profit immensely off this. Some of these platforms are blatantly using censorship to further their own political agendas. People witness everything from post deletion, bans, and the promotion of videos and media that support their affiliations. Essentially, platforms are creating synthetic filter bubbles and gamifying the social media experience.",
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