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      "author": "steemitboard",
      "body": "Congratulations @speculatorseth! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@speculatorseth/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@speculatorseth) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=speculatorseth)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "author": "speculatorseth",
      "body": "My indicator did a great job of showing us when we were oversold back at $6k in BTC.  The indicator is now saying that we are in the midst of a bull trap.  I have already sold all of my holdings except for a few small coins I am mining, and my Steem Power of course.  By my calculation the next stop is $4k.\n\n![MBjz5GHWP9bNGuLdjrptDmTiitYHIxeKct8gO72r7zEBFhVm03Vm9N_DQliDF9sf.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdbbCDas4F9TP4XP6xGDnocU8hyTwUrcqv2Xk9ei322N3/MBjz5GHWP9bNGuLdjrptDmTiitYHIxeKct8gO72r7zEBFhVm03Vm9N_DQliDF9sf.png)\n\nI post daily updates to my Patreon for more information: https://www.patreon.com/SpeculatorSeth",
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      "body": "The right thing to do! :)",
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      "author": "speculatorseth",
      "body": "Thank you.  This is definitely going back into some Steem Power so that I can upvote you all even more.",
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      "author": "speculatorseth",
      "body": "@@ -1498,8 +1498,47 @@\n st 8700.\n+  It is unclear if that's all there is.\n",
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      "author": "drpuffnstuff",
      "body": "Good news. Seen you shared this post on the Utah Bitcoin Facebook group. Nice to meet you yo. \n\nAlso good job on sharing Steemit posts outside of Steemit. We need more of that.",
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      "body": "@@ -1397,20 +1397,109 @@\n  in bitcoin futures.\n+%0A%0AUpdate: Looks like the order may be playing out.  We just had a huge move up past 8700.\n",
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      "author": "speculatorseth",
      "body": "The overall cumulative delta number is negative, but it started way back in December so I wouldn't read too much into that.  Overall the change during that hour just took us back in cumulative delta to where we were yesterday before the afternoon move up.",
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      "author": "cryptosludge",
      "body": "Very interesting, someone is bullish there. but it is still a pretty big short position now.",
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{
  "block": 19840593,
  "op": [
    "comment",
    {
      "author": "speculatorseth",
      "body": "@@ -929,16 +929,20 @@\n ased on \n+the \n hard lin\n",
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{
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    {
      "author": "speculatorseth",
      "body": "@@ -779,181 +779,10 @@\n ow 8\n+4\n 5\n-00.  A quick look at the cash futures show that on the exchanges price there dipped below 8500.  We did not see the same in the futures.  They were unable to push below 850\n 0 de\n@@ -964,18 +964,18 @@\n art at 8\n+4\n 5\n-0\n 0 where \n@@ -1335,22 +1335,23 @@\n someone \n-someon\n+may hav\n e just p\n",
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{
  "block": 19840391,
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      "author": "speculatorseth",
      "body": "![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPSpwnsLQo66jUp6N4RkJVF9YsVTs2UWutiB9SRsCxKuD/image.png)\n\nThis chart is of the CME Bitcoin futures.  A new bar is made every 10 orders in volume.  The bottom blue line is cumulative delta.  Cumulative delta is all market buys minus all market sells.  This tells us which direction market orders are generally pressuring.  There is a divergence between price and cumulative delta on this chart, which we've seen before large selloffs.  However, the context of this one is a little different.  I believe the chart may be showing a large iceberg order.\n\nDuring the period from about 10-11 AM ET there was extended selling according to my chart.  Cumulative Delta shows market selling through the whole period.  However, price was not able to get below 8500.  A quick look at the cash futures show that on the exchanges price there dipped below 8500.  We did not see the same in the futures.  They were unable to push below 8500 despite orders selling into it.  I cannot confirm this for sure without seeing the level2 at the time, but this was likely an iceberg order  based on hard line you see on the chart at 8500 where price could not push through.  For those unfamiliar with this term, an iceberg order is a large limit order that refreshes the bid every time it is filled.  So you might only see 1 bid at 8500, but as they sell 20 contracts go off there.  This allows large players to accumulate positions without having to show it all on the level2.  \n\nIn other words, someone someone just put about $.5 million in margin long in bitcoin futures.",
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      "body": "@@ -300,12 +300,102 @@\n loff\n-, so\n+ and in the Denial phase - which can explain the lack of panic i am seeing. So that means that\n  the\n@@ -425,18 +425,20 @@\n ad of us\n-. \n+! %0A%0A\n One thin\n",
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      "body": "That! is the mother of all questions, i mean, if we put everything aside and look at the charts, the 1D specially the bounce earlier to 17K was the perfect \"return to normal\" bull trap, and now we seem to be in the capitulation phase. But if we look at the weekly, we are at about the end of the selloff, so the bull trap is still ahead of us. One thing i been thinking about after written this post, is if maybe over time,  i have surrounded myself with seasoned traders and more accurate news sources and thus creating the echo chamber in which i can't see the panic,  blood and capitulation i am so used on seeing? I will need to look into this.",
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      "body": "One of the things I've noticed as I've watched the order book is how incredibly one sided trade on cryptocurrencies tend to be. Everyone is buying or selling at once, and we rarely see two way trade where limit orders on both sides will get filled.\n\nThe result is an incredibly volatile instrument that is highly susceptible to manipulation by large players. It doesn't take much to get momentum going in their favour, and then they just wait for their target.\n\nThe solution to this problem is to increase liquidity. That is we need more people on both sides of the market willing to buy and sell. We need a thick instrument like the 10 year treasury futures are. We can encourage this by making a few changes to how exchanges work. These changes will make it harder to move price, and attract more liquidity. Honestly, I wish I could just start my own exchange, but I am only one person. So here are some ideas that I hope someone with the means implements.\n\nIncrease minimum tick size: Most exchanges price down to the cent. You can put your order in for whatever fiat value you want. This makes sense for general use because it lets users buy exactly the amount they need. It also creates a small spread which decreases attractiveness to market makers. I suggest we change this to the nearest dollar, or even 10's or 100's if necessary. Now a market maker can make a profit off even the smallest possible price movement. This also means that there will be far more liquidity available at each step since what are now dozens of orders at different prices will be consolidated into one price.\n\nIceberg orders: An iceberg order is a large order sitting on the order book that only shows a portion of the order at a time. So a user could have an iceberg for 10 Bitcoins, but you'll only see 1 Bitcoin on the book. When that 1 Bitcoin is filled the exchange automatically shows the next 1 Bitcoin until the order is filled. This is a feature on the exchange that makes it easier for large players to get filled. For market makers a large iceberg is a potential place to get filled easily. More importantly they slow down price. This brings in more liquidity and two way trade.\n\nFocus on order flow tools: The current information available on many exchanges make it difficult to really understand what is happening under the hood. A true depth of market that shows how many orders have gone off at each price is essential. Many traders recommend against day trading cryptos because humans just don't have the information to really compete against robots. Such tools put humans on a much more level playing field.\n\nOptions: When the market goes south there are few safe havens. Large players exiting the market can create huge moves, and exciting is their only choice to protect profits. If options are introduced it provides a way to hedge positions without exiting the market.",
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