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      "body": "@@ -64,16 +64,13 @@\n ack \n-Schwager\n+Welch\n %0A%0A!%5B\n@@ -2689,25 +2689,16 @@\n unt, so \n-actually \n the prof\n",
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      "body": "„If you don’t have a competitive advantage, don’t compete.“ – Jack Schwager\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPB3fgD9Zzy1uqULVaJFKAQaZk1YJVqcA7DrzYt8phFXk/image.png)\n\nWell so, in trading it is mendatory to have some sort of advantage in what you’re doing compared to what the 90% that lose money are doing. \n\nSounds brutal? Yes, it is. Trading is brutal. It’s one oft he hardest jobs to make a consistent income by itself alone. But the dreams are big and the stakes in trading are high. The market for a trader is a juicy thing, that has to be squeezed out, at least in the imagination. \n\nLet’s talk about statistics here. Would you agree that you have an edge if you’d make money at the end of a day? I guess no, it could just be pure luck. Do you have an edge if you’re profitable after 500 trades in a row? Well that seems more reasonable.\n\nWhen I think of edge I mean a systematic edge. That is a positive expectancy / sharpe ratio / profitfactor system, whatever measurement you prefer.\n\nHere are some examples to say that your system has an edge when it reaches these statics on average:\n\n-\t30% winrate / 1:3 RR avg\n-\t40% winrate / 1:2 RR avg\n-\t50% winrate / 1:1.5 RR avg\n-\t60% winrate / 1:0.9 RR avg\n-\t70% winrate / 1:0.6 RR avg\n\nAll these numbers are super profitable if you input 500 trades of course. But it looks to good to be true.\n\nThe chance of blowing the account with any of these systems becomes very high if you risk more than 2% per trade. The drawdowns inside these 500 trades can make you headaches. And beware the pareto principle on top, which will most probably make you a hard time because the time in drawdown can be 80% of the time and the big winners or winning streaks also appear most probably only in 20% of the whole series.\n\nThese difficulties make one thing very clear: to have an edge it is also important to be patient. Many people I guess already have a good system for trading the markets but fail at being patient.\n\nAnother thing is that tradenumber / year plays an important role in what you can expect from a system. There are edges that are not too obvious for some. There could be a system which makes only 5 trades per year, trades on a 1-3 month horizon and has the same profitability like a system that makes 1000 trades. The first one would have to be 70% profitable with a 1:6 RR avg and the second system 50.5% profitable with a 1:1 RR avg. \n\nHaving a very slight edge over 1000 trades is a big thing, allthough you might not see it as it appears too small of a thing. But repeated over time it is profitable. \n\nBeing profitable in trading actually also means being 80% of the time in a drawdown relative to the highest point oft he account, so actually the profitablity goes up and down and only at the end you can say it has X sharpe ratio. Meanwhile the sharpe ratio fluctuates with your drawdown. Thinking that the system is bad because of a current low measurement is also a crux.\n\nWith all that said, and experienced through 4.5 years of trading now, I just want to share this to help people understand what an edge is and that trading is a brutal game, in which only lucky ones who quit before they go broke, extreme patient ones or very smart people tend to succeed while 90% loose their shirt. And that even if it sounds so promising when we hear about the possibilities in the markets the first time.\n\nHave a good trading, cheers!\n\nNiclas\n\nhttps://www.flickr.com/photos/gruenewiese/15023253524/",
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      "body": "Problem solving. It is something that can be important in our lives in many different areas. It often starts with a desire to have more in life, to get rid of something uncomfortable. The first question we can ask ourselves here: is it possible to achieve X dream or get rid of X uncomfortable things in our life. Often there’s a feeling that there IS actually more to achieve, there COULD be more happiness, success, better relationships or more peace of mind. There COULD be less stress, less „feeling tired all day“ and general struggling to make a living.\n \nThings can change, but the hard thing ist to get yourself starting to change something. But when there is a COULD in your mind, you already know that there is a solution but you didn’t figure out yet what it is. \n\nThat’s the point where I have a clear vision for you. Imagine you change your current life to the life of a scientist. A scientist also seeks for an answer to a problem. Moreover he acts in a certain scientific field. What do we normally do when something is not working out the way we’re expecting it? We give up too fast! What do we do? We tend to relocate our problems in other areas. \n\nSo think about how a scientist would see the same problems. He would not change his scientific field if he fails to solve the problem in a certain way, neither would he give up after one or two approaches that didn’t yield the results that he expected. Instead he knows and has a feeling that there is something to find somewhere. He has a good idea on where to go next if he sees that X thing is a dead end. \n\n![Circle.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeWFVLbykpfu985fii6jSx8eRokYqWLzApexrUGr5n3oH/Circle.png)\n\nThis simple paint(ing) shows dots in a circle and represent the probabilistic nature of trial and error to find the red circle (the solution). If the target lays in a veil of ignorance and misinformation in which our mind is clouded to not see the solution, then the first try most probably won’t hit the target.\n\nIt could take hours or days to work out the idea to fix the problem that is one gray point in the circle. But when the results are not the way we want them to be, it’s easy to give up and get depressed. So just remembering: we can think like a scientist here. We know and have the feeling that there must be an answer, so we must keep trying, the more we know that what doesn’t work the more we have an idea where the solution might be. We start slow, nothing is showing results but after a while we should feel an acceleration in where we want to head to. \n\nThe only obstacle therefore ist the humbling view of he wide field we are throwing the darts in at the beginning of the journey to get out of our problems. To keep going, even if there are no results yet. It can be overcome with a clear vision, that I call the view of a scientist. And if you’re not already one, maybe you should consider acting like one 😉",
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      "body": "Hi steemians,\n\nI recently figured out a method to achieve my goals more efficient while also improving my life quality that I'd like to share.\n\nhttps://steemitimages.com/DQmZt1GCuE71Md4YUMQepWgQrFii7R9N9qbAkn1Yw1D1iKk/bigstock-happy-young-businessman-on-spr-12753728.jpg\n\nAll I had to do is to grab a white paper and write down everything I can imagine that is necessary to reach my goals. \nA few points were clear like \"take your time to work on important projects\" or \"stay disciplined\". Some points got me thinking. \"Reduce headache\" for example. More deeply it came to \"how to reduce headache\" and the answer is: eat healthy, do sport, yoga, meditation, get fresh air, don't sit on the computer too long. \n\nBecause I trade the markets every day I suddenly realised one important thing: You can always do something for your goals. It's sunday and the market is closed? You can take a walk outside and get fresh air. You can sozialise more, you can cook something special. Or just look at your list with things you can do to achieve your goal.\n\nIt's that simple. The cool thing is that I feel like I trick my mind. Before that I was often waiting for the things to happen, not making things happen by my own behaviour OUTSIDE of trading. Whenever there's nothing to do I tell my mind: you can go jogging, you can get fresh air:  <i>It will result in positive trades next day.<i> It activates my achievement system. \n\nAnd that is another point to consider: your own achievement system. I know from playing a lot of computer games that in every game there are game designers who actually work on building an achievement system that makes sure you have fun in each state of the game, you earn experience points, you unlock shiny itmes etc. But hey, these games only consume too much time, it's far better to build a real life achievement system that focuses on improving clarity within yourself, keeps you healthy and gives your real life energy. The long term results are worth it.\n\nThat's it for my thoughts for today,\nhave a good one ;)\n\nNiclas\n\n [image source](https://www.rentecdirect.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/bigstock-happy-young-businessman-on-spr-12753728.jpg)",
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      "author": "trading4life",
      "body": "Danke für die Antwort. Habe das erst jetzt gesehen.\n\nIch stelle mir schon jetzt vor wie lustig es wird, wenn auf einmal alle Menschen Bitcoins benutzen (wenn es dann mal wirklich nutzbar ist mit atomic swaps, lightning network etc) und der jetzige Staat dann nicht mehr da ran kommt :)\n\nIch stelle mir das so vor wie der Wechsel von D-Mark zum Euro, eben von Euro zum \"Staatscoin\". Wahrscheinlich werden die Parlamente in der jetzigen Form dem nicht zustimmen, weil sie Macht dezentralisieren würden und ihre Geschäfte nicht transparent machen wollen, die von mächtigen Lobbygruppen aus der Wirtschaft durchsetzt sind.\n\nMan kann den Staat gut oder böse sehen, ich denke, wenn die Kontrolle des \"Staatscoins\" bei den tatsächlichen Nutzern ist, dann ist der Staat eben nicht nur eine Institution der mächtigen Interessensgruppen, sondern die Bürger selber. Vielleicht ist der heutige Staat ja dann irgendwann gezwungen Bitcoin oder eine andere Kryptowährung tatsächlich als gesetzliches Mittel zu akzeptieren und ein Bürgerentscheid über einen Staatsfork wird in die Verfassung eingehen.. Wer weiss schon die Zukunft ;D",
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      "body": "@@ -426,19 +426,26 @@\n ann man \n-3-8\n+es 3-8 Mal\n  pro Woc\n@@ -523,11 +523,8 @@\n man \n-ja \n nich\n@@ -549,17 +549,23 @@\n irm sitz\n-t\n+en kann\n . Das re\n@@ -575,16 +575,20 @@\n t jedoch\n+ aus\n , denn d\n@@ -3009,17 +3009,16 @@\n %3Cb%3EPoint\n-t\n  4:%3C/b%3E \n@@ -3208,27 +3208,28 @@\n %3C/i%3E%0A%3Ci%3E%3Cb%3EP\n-unk\n+oint\n t 5:%3C/b%3E wai\n",
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      "body": "In diesem Beitrag gebe ich mir Mühe jeden wichtigen Punkt eines Patterns zu beschreiben, das für mich nahezu risikolose Einstiege innerhalb der Dynamik vom BTCUSD auf Bitmex ermöglicht.\n\nDieses Muster ist eher selten, jedoch sehr profitabel. Es eignet sich also für Trader, die die Geduld haben mindestens 2 Stunden zu warten und zuschlagen können wie ein \"Sniper\". Im BTCUSD ist das Muster relativ häufig. Erwartungshalber kann man 3-8 pro Woche erwarten, wobei man meistens 1-2 tatsächlich zu Gesicht bekommt, da man ja nicht immer am Bildschirm sitzt. Das reicht jedoch, denn die Trefferquote ist hoch und das Chance-Risiko-Verhältnis auch.\n\nDasselbe Muster gibt es auch für die Long-Seite, mit dem Unterschied, dass die Dauer des Entstehens und Vergehens des ganzen Patterns von Anfang bis Ende ein wenig länger dauert, da Angst eine mehr oder weniger flüchtigere Emotion ist als Gier.\n\n![51.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmenUdw8Tvqa9SXgPDb1JNFAh9rt2PuJCYYnhrzeyxgZJ1/51.png)\n\nWichtig zu verstehen: An der roten, horizontalen Linie ist der Einstieg markiert und an der grünen der Ausstieg. \n\n<b>Punkt 1:</b> Volumenaufnahme (im 3 min Chart: mehrere Kerzen mit mehr als 6 Mio Kontrakten, im 1 min Chart: 2 Mio Kontrakte)\n<b>Punkt 2:</b> Bewegung ohne deutliches Verlassen der 9er EMA (Exponential Moving Average)\n<b>Punkt 3:</b> Volumenabnahme abwarten mit einer roten Kerze für das Shortbeispiel (mindestens die Hälfte bis ein Drittel des durchschnittlichen Aufnahmevolumens)\n<b>Punkt 4:</b> Entry: in Bitmex am besten Market, da der Markt oft schnell anzieht, Verlustbegrenzung: ~ 100 Punkte / Risiko nach wahl (0.5-3% vom Kontostand)\n<b>Punkt 5:</b> Spiegelung abwarten und dann Volumenspitze abwarten zum Exit (am besten per Limit)\n\n<i>In this post I took effort to describe every important point of a pattern that lead myself to many almost risk-free signals inside the dynamics of BTCUSD on Bitmex.</i>\n\n<i>This pattern is quite rare but highly profitable. It is for traders who have the patience to at least wait for 2 hours and execute the trade \"like a sniper\". In BTCUSD this pattern is quite frequent. You can expect to see it 3-8 times per week, saying that you most likely will see it only 1-2 times because you can't sit on your computer all the time. Despite that, it's enough occurences because the hit rate is high and also the risk reward.</i>\n\n<i>Same pattern exists for the long side (which usually takes more time because fear is mostly a more elusive emotion than greed).</i>\n\n<i>Important to understand: At the red, horizontal line is the entry and at the green line is the exit.</i>\n\n<i><b>Point 1:</b> Volume Continuation (3 min Chart: multiple candles with contracts > 6 Mio, in 1 min Chart: > 2 Mio)</i>\n<i><b>Pointt 2:</b> Price movement without clear exiting the 9 EMA (Exponential Moving Average)</i>\n<i><b>Point 3:</b> Wait for volume decline in a red candle for the short example (at least half or a third of the average Volume Continuation Volume)</i>\n<i><b>Pointt 4:</b> Entry: in Bitmex it's best to go market with this setup because the market often tightens up at these points , Stoploss: ~100 Points / risk of choice (0.5-3% from the account balance)</i>\n<i><b>Punkt 5:</b> wait for mirroring the price movement (pink line) and then exit when there is a volume peak that is higher than the volume continuation (best to exit with a limit order because we are not in a rush at this point)</i>\n\nIch hoffe das hilft euch um gute Einstiege zu finden, die man mit Hebel ausnutzen kann ;) \n<i>I hope this helps you in finding another good entry that you can exploit with leverage ;) </i>\n\nBleibt geduldig / <i>Stay patient</i>,\nNiclas",
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      "author": "grossefreiheittv",
      "body": "\"Es wird allerdings schwer bei einer Kryptowährung Steuern zu verlangen. Aus diesem Grund gibt es innerhalb der Blockchain einen Pool, der die Staatskasse darstellt. Die Einnahmen kommen schlicht und einfach aus jeder Transaktion in der Blockchain. Die Regeln, wie dieser Pool ausgezahlt wird, unter welchen Bedingungen etc. wird von Parlamenten entschieden. Die Staatskasse ist transparent, jedoch alle restlichen Transaktionen anonym.\"\n\nDazu muss man die Leute erstmal zwingen einen Staatscoin zu verwenden. Mit freien Coins kann der Staat keine Steuern nur mit Zwangsmaßnahmen einnehmen. Wer sich da weigert, dem kann man nicht einfach das Konto einfrieren. Man muss also Wohnungen stürmen, Auto und andere Vermögensgegenstände konfiszieren usw. Das schöne daran ist dann, dass für jeden, der an das Gute im Staat glaubt, der Zwang und die Gewalt viel offensichtlicher wird. So wird das dann schnell der Weg in einer Gesellschaft, die immer mehr auf Freiwilligkeit anstatt auf Zwang und Gewalt beruht :-)",
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