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      "body": "Gold is on the rebound on Friday, paring some of the losses from the previous 2 session. The precious metal is down over 10% over the past fortnight.\n\nRather than bounding higher on safe haven flows, gold has been under pressure across the past 2 weeks. Intensifying coronavirus fears resulted in investors liquefying their gold positions to either:\n\n1) Cover margin\n\n2) To rotate into U.S. dollar amid sell everything mode and “cash is best” .\n\nHowever, today amid a slight improvement in broad risk sentiment, thanks to a stimulus bonanza, the rush to cash has paused and investors are cautiously buying back into the market. Global action from central banks and government policy makes across the week to cushion the economic hit from coronavirus has finally caught up with the market. Stocks are on the rise, oil and gold.\n\nDead cat bounce?\n\nHowever, there is a good chance that this is a dead cat bounce as the rush for cash pauses, so buying into gold to hedge any weekend risk is not on this occasion a sensible strategy.\n\nThere will not be a quick bounce back here. In parts of Europe and US we are just at the start of what could be a long social distancing, isolation and possible lock down phase. The situation in US and Europe is expected to get worse before it gets better. There is a good chance that we haven’t seen the end of the run to cash.\n\nAnd if risk sentiment improves?\n\nEven if risk appetite does increase, thanks to huge stimulus you don’t stay in safe havens. The UK rolled out a £330 billion bailout package, with more to come this afternoon. US is debating a $1 trillion dollar rescue package. Stocks are moving higher. Should risk sentiment show a meaningful improvement, traders would usually look to riskier assets rather than gold.\n\nLevels to Watch\n\nDespite Gold trading up 2% so far today, the technical picture remains negative. A close above its 200 sma could tempt more bulls in.\n\nImmediate resistance can be seen on 4 hour chart at $1516 (today’s high) followed by strong resistance at $1555 (200 sma & high 17th March).\n\nOn the downside, support can be seen at $1455 (today’s low) followed by $1451 (16th March low) before opening the doors to $1437 (low 5th Aug 2019).GOLD Chart https://d51-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic0b997735ba2db362683bb961d6c6b031.png GOLD Chart \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-rebounds-as-sell-everything-mode-pauses-200517618)</center>",
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      "author": "cheetah",
      "body": "Hi! I am a robot. I just upvoted you! I found similar content that readers might be interested in:\nhttps://www.actionforex.com/contributors/fundamental-analysis/281166-wti-with-trumps-intervention-oil-may-bottom/",
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      "body": "If traders didn’t already have a reason to wake up and pay attention, maybe this realization will help: We’re currently navigating times that hundreds of future books will be written about.\n\nFor market participants, there’s arguably no market more interesting right now than oil. After yesterday’s big drop on fears of weak demand and illiquid markets, prices are surging back a staggering 24% so far today. While oil was already bouncing back strongly along with general risk appetite, so-called “black gold” went vertical this afternoon on rumors that Russian President Putin was willing to engage Saudi Arabia in discussions about cutting production. Astute traders will note that the failure to reach an agreement over production levels led to a huge supply glut hitting the market just as demand collapsing, a perfect storm for crude bears. Hints that the Trump Administration may intervene in the whole kerfuffle have also helped boost prices.\n\nWTI Daily Chart https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic0a8d016471b8e1f59afd198c7c010724.png WTI Daily Chart\n\nIn any event, WTI is trading back above the key long-term support zone we highlighted near 25.00. Given that the support in this area dates back decades and prices only closed below it for a single day amidst a broader panic and illiquid market conditions, this zone may still continue to put a floor under prices moving forward.\n\nOil traders will obviously need to a keep an eye on the headlines out of the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia in the days to come, but the price action and rumors of hints in the fundamental supply/demand situation suggest that oil may have formed at least a near-term bottom yesterday.\n\n \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/wti-with-trumps-intervention-oil-may-bottom-200517571)</center>",
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      "body": "The oil market can’t get out of the red zone. After a massive sell-off on Tuesday’s trading session Brent fell below $ 30 per barrel, the decline continued on Wednesday. Most likely, the sellers are rallying their forces to test January 2016 minimums, when oil traded as low as $ 27.10. If prices sink even further, the next target may be a 17-year low, around $25 per barrel.\n\nOil quotes continue to plummet along with global stock markets, reflecting panic caused by the coronavirus outbreak. Spain declared a state of emergency on Saturday. The Eurozone’s fourth largest economy reported that the death toll has increased dramatically - the number of deaths from coronavirus doubled to 533. Earlier, the United States also reported an emergency in the country. Italy, which is the most affected country, has confirmed the total death toll of more than 2503 people. Germany has closed borders with neighboring countries. Amid the spreading pandemic and a sharp decline in economic growth, coupled with growing tensions in the financial sector, experts predict an impending global economic recession.\n\nS&P credit-rating agency currently presumes that global GDP growth in 2020 will be only 1.0-1.5%, while the balance of risks will shift downwards. Preliminary data from China indicate that the Chinese economy will be hit the most. In the first half of 2020, China's economic growth will drop by more than 7%. This is already confirmed by statistics. According to data released on Monday, industrial production volumes in the country decreased by 13.5% last month, capital investment plunged by 24.5%, retail sales - by 20.5%. Bloomberg forecasts the historical drop in global oil demand in 2020 caused by a global pandemic. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) predicts that by the end of the year, oil demand could drop by 4 million barrels per day.\n\nOil prices went into a tailspin last week after Russia refused to support OPEC production cuts. Right after that, Saudi Arabia announced its plans to raise its crude oil production in April. Similar plans were also voiced by Nigeria, the UAE and Russia. Thus, the growth in oil supply expected in April, together with the collapse of demand caused by the slowdown in the global economy, means that the world oil market will inevitably face a significant excess of supply in the second quarter of 2020. According to preliminary data, the oil surplus may exceed 6 million barrels per day, which once again gives us all reasons to expect an inevitable collapse of \"black gold\" quotes. \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/oil-heading-for-17year-lows-200517237)</center>",
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      "body": "Hi! I am a robot. I just upvoted you! I found similar content that readers might be interested in:\nhttps://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/crude-oil-fell-to-2037-yesterday-is-now-a-good-time-to-buy-202003191032",
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      "body": "https://i.imgur.com/CBqCEo5.png<br><br>Join the community in our migration to Hive, a community built blockchain for the community.  All Steem account holders will receive equivalent stake on the new Hive blockchain.<br><br>Please [follow @innerhive on twitter](https://twitter.com/innerhive) for more information.",
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      "body": "Crude and Brent oil are down over 60% year-to-date. Yesterday, crude oil fell 24% to $20.37 touching an 18-year low due to coronavirus panic around the globe. Both, WTI and Brent are on track to record their worst month in history, down over 54% and 50% respectively. The continuous global lockdown of worldwide travel due to the closing of borders and general shut down of business activities are influencing the oil prices. Basically, oil prices are being battered from both sides: supply and demand.\n\nCrude oil, WTI, has recovered some of its losses today and it is up over 10%. Investors are asking themselves a question if this is a good time for them to buy oil given the historic monthly drop in prices of Brent and Crude?\n\nBefore I begin to answer the above, it is important to understand the background.\n\nWHO STARTED THE WAR AND WHO ESCALATED IT?\nWhen the oil price was trading in the late $40s, Saudi Arabia tried its best to bring Russia to the table to discuss the oil supply cut. However, Russia insisted that it was comfortable with the oil price. Russia was determined to buy more time to see the full impact of coronavirus on oil demand. Of course, this was at a time when we were hearing news of coronavirus mainly in China and some cases in other neighboring countries. Europe and the US were seemingly completely immune during that particular time. Subsequently, Saudi Arabia had had enough of the situation and it retaliated; it opened the supply taps. It announced that it would increase its oil production from 9.8 million barrels per day to 12.3 million barrels a day. The oil war was escalated.\n\nWHEN THE PRODUCTION CUT EXPIRES?\nThe OPEC+plus production cut has been in place since the global supply glut and it is about to expire at the end of this month. To put things in perspective, at the expiration of the agreement, every member of the cartel will be allowed to pump as much oil as they want, and if a new supply cut agreement isn’t put in place before that, it will amplify the supply at a time when the demand is sitting at its lowest.\n\nWHEN IS THE NEXT MEETING?\nThe next official meeting between the two giants, Saudi Arabia and Russia, isn’t scheduled before June. Keep in mind, there is always a possibility of having an emergency meeting, and if one happens before June it would be about curbing the oil supply so that they can put a floor under the oil price\n\nDO WE KNOW THE LONG-TERM IMPACT ON DEMAND?\nWall Street’s analysts took the chopper out and have started to slash their forecast for oil prices. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said in its note that they see the oil price averaging $20 which of course fell to this level yesterday. The fact is that most of the analysts are comparing the current oil shock with the financial crisis, but the reality is that the long term impact of Coronavirus on the oil demand equation is still mysterious, because it is unknown charted territory.\n\nHISTORY CAN PROVIDE GUIDANCE\nIn reality, in a situation like this, one needs to utilize the wealth of technical analysis to determine a significant support level. Looking at the chart below, it seems like the weekly candle of 11th\nNov 2001 provides decent support. I believe that if the sell-off resumes, it is highly likely that WTI price may fall deep in the defined support zone, and that means the price may fall to $16.\n\nSO, IS IT A GOOD TIME TO BUY OIL NOW?\nThe pandemic continues to slam the demand equation for oil. Given the massive sell-off, I believe the price is likely to see an upward price retracement, something which we are experiencing today. However, the current downward trend and the overall sentiment is still way too pessimistic, and this could push the price lower again. Therefore, investors may want to wait a little bit more. Having said this, price being at 18 years low, if one dips a toe in this trade, it may not be a bad idea either as one will have a chance to go all-in at a better price if it continues to fall. \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/crude-oil-fell-to-2037-yesterday-is-now-a-good-time-to-buy-200517235)</center>",
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      "body": "https://i.imgur.com/CBqCEo5.png<br><br>Join the community in our migration to Hive, a community built blockchain for the community.  All Steem account holders will receive equivalent stake on the new Hive blockchain.<br><br>Please see [this post on SteemPeak](https://steempeak.com/communityfork/@hiveio/announcing-the-launch-of-hive-blockchain) for more information.",
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      "body": "For some longs in natural gas still shuddering at finding themselves at 25-year lows after this week’s 14% price collapse, I hate to be the bearer of this news: the worst isn’t over.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic and its systemic destruction of the oil market and Wall Street has found another victim — natural gas.\n\nLast week’s consumption of gas likely fell by 88% from the week prior as more Americans began working from home and fewer businesses operated full hours, reducing the need for heating in buildings and other commercial locations.\n\nNatural Gas Futures Weekly Price Chart https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/picc673dcfa2b4c49ca65aa4719a2450b9b.png Natural Gas Futures Weekly Price Chart\n\nThe U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly gas storage report, due at 10:30 AM ET (15:30) today, is expected to show that U.S. utilities pulled just 6.0 billion cubic feet from storage for the week ended March 13, to burn for heating. The previous week’s drawdown was 48 bcf.\n\nLast week’s gas consumption was even lower when compared to year-ago and seasonal levels. During the same week in 2019, gas storage fell by 91 bcf. The five-year (2015-2019) average for draws was more modest but still higher at 63 bcf.\n\nSPRING BRINGS GLOOM FOR GAS, NOT HOPE\nAnd with spring officially kicking off from today, there’ll be even milder temperatures, after what has already been a disastrous winter for gas bulls. Add to that the full or partial lockdown of New York, San Francisco and most major U.S. cities from the pandemic and you have a perfect storm for demand and gas prices.\n\nFor this week, estimates show draws not to be very different from last week, probably hitting around 9 bcf or so because of a slightly colder start to the week.\n\nThat’s not all. Analysts are now anticipating that there’ll only be two more weeks of gas withdrawals, after which the pre-summer injection season into storage will begin.\n\nTypically, the so-called shoulder season between spring and summer is a tepid period for gas consumption and longs in the market are usually happy to wait for the arrival of hotter weather and demand for air-conditioning.\n\nBut this year’s summer outlook for gas might be even worse than we had for winter. If work-from-home and social distancing remains the new normal by June and beyond, then commercial demand for cooling will almost be decimated.\n\nMORE STORAGE BUILDS LIKELY\nAlready at the current level, gas in storage stands at around 2.0 trillion cubic feet — about 16% higher than the five-year average and 76% above where it stood a year ago. Aside from unseasonable warmth through many phases of the 2019/20 winter, one reason for the outsize storage build is record high production of gas since the start of this year.\n\nGiven the current situation, gas longs should be afraid, very afraid of any more swellings in the inventory.\n\n“The natural gas market’s capitulation has reached a new stage,” said Dan Myers, analyst at Houston-based consultancy Gelber & Associates. Said Myers:\n\n> “Ongoing developments will eventually help prices set a new floor that could stand for many years.”\nIn Wednesday’s session, the front-month gas contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Henry Hub fell to as low as $1.56 per million metric British thermal units — marking a bottom since August 1995, when it traded at $1.39 per mm\nBtu.\n\nThere are various $1 level pricings in 1995 and 1994, meaning the next milestone for the market’s low might not be that great.\n\nScott Shelton, energy futures broker at ICAP in Durham, North Carolina, agrees with Myers that the current selloff in gas is virtually unprecedented in recent history.\n\nBut he also says bids at the low level could come in to create volatility, amid spreads play on the difference between spring and summer pricing of gas.\n\n“Until we get some clarity on the demand side (which isn’t that bad), the path of least resistance is lower for spreads,” Shelton wrote in a market commentary on Wednesday. He added:\n\n> “And front-end flat price and volatility should continue to rise as there is no concept here of what spreads are actually worth.”\n\n\nSOME REPRIEVE IF A FEW ENERGY DRILLERS GO BUST\nThere could be a silver lining for gas too from the pandemic and the demand destruction it has wrought.\n\nSome of the most debt-laden energy drillers in U.S. shale fields are likely to go bust in coming months from the impact of $20 oil versus production costs. Gas is often a by-product of oil drilling in the shale patches and if these companies go down, a chunk of the record high in gas production now could be wiped out.\n\nDrillers like Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) and Whiting Petroleum (NYSE:WLL) were already facing financial difficulties before this month’s near 50% drop in U.S. crude prices resulting from the pandemic and ill-timed output hikes by oil producing titan Saudi Arabia.\n\nPioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD), one of the leading producers in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, is running a series of models to decide its next steps and is likely to plan for a worst-case scenario, where oil prices might remain low for two years.\n\nWest Texas drillers Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG) and Parsley Energy (NYSE:PE) pledged on Monday to curb activity in response to the oil price decline.\n\n“Probably 50% of the public E&Ps will go bankrupt over the next two years,” Pioneer’s CEO Scott Sheffield told the Wall Street Journal in an interview on Monday. \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/natural-gas-if-youre-long-be-afraidbe-very-afraid-200517227)</center>",
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      "author": "innerhive",
      "body": "https://i.imgur.com/CBqCEo5.png<br><br>Join the community in our migration to Hive, a community built blockchain for the community.  All Steem account holders will receive equivalent stake on the new Hive blockchain.<br><br>Please see [this post on SteemPeak](https://steempeak.com/communityfork/@hiveio/announcing-the-launch-of-hive-blockchain) for more information.",
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      "body": "Financial institutions, energy firms and energy-focused organizations around the world are currently adjusting forecasts for oil demand in 2020 given the continued, global spread of coronavirus and its potentially devastating economic fallout.\n\nAccording to Rystad Energy, by April, global demand could plunge more than 11 million bpd, while energy trading house Trafigura predicts a 10 million bpd demand drop in the short term. For 2020, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected oil demand could plunge by 730,000 bpd, while JP Morgan puts the fall at 750,000 bpd.\n\nGlobal Oil Demand Growth, 2011-2025 https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pice6c42ff6b4d3bddd3f69fb3d325735a9.PNG Global Oil Demand Growth, 2011-2025\n\nChart Provided By IEA\n\nDemand expectations provided by these institutions were already drastically adjusted from earlier numbers and will continue to change as the impact of the coronavirus plays out. At this time of heightened unpredictability, it's useful to keep in mind what’s driving demand forecasts. Understanding the positive and negative signals for oil demand, traders can adjust their own assessments accordingly.\n\nHere are some potential best- and worst-case scenarios for oil demand:\n\nWORST CASE \nOne or more of the following potential negative signals could play out. Each is independent of the other.\n\n1. Covid-19 and resulting isolations continue to ravage economies for months and limit transportation globally.\n\n2. After slowing down, the virus returns just as strongly several months later—much like what happend with the Spanish flu in the fall of 1918.\n\n3. Saudi Arabia, which committed to producing more oil and exporting more of the commodity from inventory at low prices, did so before identifying customers and becomes unable to find buyers for all of its oil.\n\n4. China decides to continue decreasing its oil imports—both from Russia and Saudi Arabia—and refuses to fulfill its commitments under the Phase One trade deal to buy U.S. energy products.\n\n5. People across the globe continue to fear illness, and air travel does not resume in any significant way in 2020.\n\n6. Countries keep their borders closed.\n\n7. Severe golbal recession or depression takes hold of world's economy, creating unprecedented dislocation of assets that prohibits a quick recovery.\n\nBEST CASE \nOne or more of the following potential positive signals could play out. Each is independent of the other. \n\n1. China emerges from its crisis and takes advantage of cheap oil to fill its existing storage facilities.\n\n2. Saudi Arabia already has customers lined up for the flood of oil that Aramco (SE:2222) is putting on the market at reduced prices.\n\n3. China, India and other importers quickly build more storage capacity to buy additional oil at current, cheap prices.\n\n4. The U.S. fills its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) with American oil at bargain prices as was indicated last week by President Trump.\n\n5. The virus dissipates, perhaps because of warmer weather in the northern hemisphere, and does not recur in a significant way in the fall.\n\n6. Businesses and leisure travelers forgo fear and take advantage of low prices to book travel.\n\n7. The U.S., China, Europe and other economies with cash or access to capital enact generous stimulus plans to jump-start their economies.\n\n8. The coming recession is not based on fundamental economic weaknesses in the global economy and the rebound is quick and robust.\n\nBOTTOM LINE\nNo one can accurately predict the future. Case in point: who predicted in November that a global pandemic would hit?\n\nInstead, consider the positive and negative factors driving oil demand as events unfold. Additionally, consider how supply availability could change. Saudi Arabia and Russia may alter their policies, for example, or U.S. production could drop for a number of reasons.\n\nThe reality? We will likely see some elements from both the best-case and worst-case scenarios occur. The near shut-down of large portions of the global economy that has taken in the last few weeks is unprecedented, making it all the more unlikely for a precise prediction to come true.\n\nInstead, consider the positive and negative factors driving oil demand as events unfold. Additionally, consider how supply availability could change. Saudi Arabia and Russia may alter their policies, for example, or U.S. production could drop for a number of reasons. \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/oil-demand-forecasts-will-keep-changing-here-are-the-signals-to-watch-200517221)</center>",
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      "title": "Oil Demand Signals: 15 Best And Worst Case Scenarios To Watch"
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      "author": "cheetah",
      "body": "Hi! I am a robot. I just upvoted you! I found similar content that readers might be interested in:\nhttps://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-53798/",
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      "body": "https://i.imgur.com/CBqCEo5.png<br><br>Join the community in our migration to Hive, a community built blockchain for the community.  All Steem account holders will receive equivalent stake on the new Hive blockchain.<br><br>Please see [this post on SteemPeak](https://steempeak.com/communityfork/@hiveio/announcing-the-launch-of-hive-blockchain) for more information.",
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      "body": "Stocks and oil plummeted yesterday as Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin warned of what can only be called a fatal contraction. Reports say that the Treasury secretary cautioned that if the U.S. government did not step in, the U.S. employment rate could soar to almost 20%. That may be a sales pitch, to sell the Trump Administrations one trillion-dollar plan that includes putting money directly into the hands of Americans in the form of a check but also cash to small businesses and the airline industry.\n\nThere's no talk of direct help for the\nEnergy sector other than the previously announced purchase for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The plan also reopens and will allow corporations to delay tax payments of up to $10 million while individuals up to $1 million to keep money in the system for small and large businesses to operate. The Fed also reopened its buying of the commercial paper facility so that banks will lend money to midsize companies.\n\nStill, the warning that employment could rocket if these measures are not adopted rocked confidence. That warning, along with more concerns about physical and emotional demand destruction, sent shockwaves through the marketplace.\n\nIn the energy sector, ground zero for the bulk of this demand destruction shuttered as the news kept getting worse. Despite a letter to Saudi Arabia by some members of Congress, the oil price war goes on.\n\nMES reported that 13 Republican senators sent a letter urging Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman to reverse a decision to increase oil production, saying it contributed to a disruption in oil prices \"on top of already hard-hit financial markets.\" The letter, sent to the powerful crown prince on Monday, said, \"the added impact of unsettled global energy markets is an unwelcome development\" at a time when the world is battling the COVID-19 pandemic.\n\n\"Senior Saudi government leaders have repeatedly told American officials, including us, that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a force for stability in global markets. Recent Saudi actions have called this role into question,\" the letter read. It was signed by key legislators, including Lisa Murkowski, chair of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources.\n\nYet Saudi Arabia says they are going to raise their oil exports by 40% to 10 million barrels a day. Iraq is calling for and almost begging for an emergency OPEC Plus meeting. The Saudi's and the Russian's oblivious to the global economic risk factors continue in their race to drive oil to zero against a backdrop of historic drops in energy demand. It seems like they are on a suicide mission to see whose economy they can destroy first.\n\nWe know that U.S. shale is taking a hit. There are reports that Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) is going to announce unpaid layoffs to many of its workers. The sad part about this is we know that this price drop and cap x cuts will lead to thousands of job losses in the industry. Even U.S. auto production will take a significant hit. The Hill reported that \"Major automakers to 'review and implement' rotating partial shutdown, union says.\" Three of America's largest automakers have agreed to institute a rotating partial shutdown of production facilities amid the coronavirus outbreak, the United Auto Workers (UAW) union said.\n\nThe union announced it had reached a deal with General Motors (NYSE:GM), Ford Motor (NYSE:F) and Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU) for the companies to \"review and implement\" a rotating partial shutdown of facilities, deep cleaning of facilities and other measures to prevent the spread of the virus among workers.\n\nGasoline demand is tanking as streets in major cities are almost empty. U.S. refiners are moving to cut runs in response to demand losses and poetical backing up crude. According to a report released from the American Petroleum Institute (API), that may already be showing up in supply. The API reported a massive 7.834 million barrel drop in crude supply as well as a significant -3.625 million barrel drop in the distillate. Surprisingly, crude supply dipped as well, down 421,000 barrels but Cushing up 660,000 barrels.\n\nWhile the worst might not be over just yet, there are signs that there is an end game. Reports say that monitor China traffic is seeing marked increases. That means we will see a rebound in a few months.\n\nThe U.S. banking system is on solid ground with large capital reserve ratios and is prepared. If you are living check to check, contact your lender and landlord for help. Communication with them is critical. Remember, we will get through this with a little faith, prayer, and good old fashion American ingenuity and sprit. \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/the-energy-report-fatal-contraction-200517206)</center>",
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      "body": "https://i.imgur.com/CBqCEo5.png<br><br>Join the community in our migration to Hive, a community built blockchain for the community.  All Steem account holders will receive equivalent stake on the new Hive blockchain.<br><br>Please see [this post on SteemPeak](https://steempeak.com/communityfork/@hiveio/announcing-the-launch-of-hive-blockchain) for more information.",
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      "author": "cheetah",
      "body": "Hi! I am a robot. I just upvoted you! I found similar content that readers might be interested in:\nhttps://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/trader-silver-price-to-fall-to-5-gold-to-silver-ratio-to-170/",
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      "body": "How likely is the market volatility to impact our silver price forecast? We’ll also comment on the current opportunity in silver compared with the opportunity in the mining stocks.\n\nLet’s start with a few questions that we received recently.\n\nFrom the readers’ mailbag\n\nQ: There have been statements circulating, mostly from those promoting physical precious metals, such as KITCO, etc.,that the physical silver prices are at a great premium to the paper (futures) prices, such as $1.50-$2 above spot prices. They are claiming there is a serious present shortage. However, my investment advisor tells me that there is, in fact, currently a significant glut of physical silver.\n\nA: That’s more or less normal. The prices on the futures market change fast, and the physical side takes some time to adjust. Sellers view the moves in futures as very brief, and hoping that prices will move back up, they don’t want to sell their inventory at what they view as prices that are ridiculous and temporary. But as the time passes, the prices on the physical market adjust. The same thing happened in 2013 when silver was declining substantially. The physical market lagged, and people were claiming that the physical market remains strong and that it’s all temporary, manipulative, etc. Silver didn’t shoot back up then because of these claims, and it’s unlikely to soar back up for this reason right now. The emphasis goes on “for this reason,” as we expect silver to move higher in the very short term, and verify the breakdown by moving back up to the 2015 lows, before sliding further.\n\nThe reasons are emotional (technical) – no market moves in the same direction indefinitely.\n\nQ: Please comment on the quote below:\n\n> \n\"But it's the supply side that has changed the market. No matter what the idiot perma-bull silverbugs may claim, there is a glut of silver and the physical oversupply is from the big\nbase metals miners, e.g those with massive skarn or porphyry copper deposits in the Andes who suddenly started paying attention to their rather minor by-product credit a few years ago\nwhen the streamer companies offered serious money for something they'd taken for granted until then.\"\n\n\nA: First of all, we want to say that we think that silver will soar exceptionally in the following years, but not before sliding even more before, though. I like to think of myself as silver’s fan, but not a fanatic. I was one of the very few people who refused to view the gold-to-silver ratio at about 80 as something bullish. The supply of silver is indeed relatively un-elastic as it is mostly mined as a by-product. This is\none of the reasons that makes silver so volatile. If it declines, the supply cannot be quickly limited to balance the price. If it soars, the supply cannot be quickly increased to balance the price. It’s a double-edged sword that currently makes the declines so significant, but also one that is likely to make silver soar particularly sharply in the final part of the next long-term upleg.\n\nQ: I have been told that extreme lows in the silver-gold ratio has in the past led to significant rallies.\n\nA: In other words, extreme highs in the gold-to-silver ratio (as is currently) has in the past led to significant rallies (in gold and silver).\n\nThat’s true. The gold-to-silver ratio has been in a long-term horizontal trend for decades moving between 100 and 15. When a given resistance level in a trend (horizontal trend is still a trend) is being reached, it’s likely that the price or ratio (whatever was in the trend) is going to reverse. But it all changes dramatically once we see a breakout above the resistance level. That’s why breakouts (and their confirmations) are so important as a trading tool.\n\nhttps://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/b55863d6335add5370488675051f4fa9.png \n\nIn case of the gold-to-silver ratio, we saw an extreme breakout. It normally takes at least several daily closes before a given breakout is confirmed. This kind of confirmation arrived but was not necessary because the breakout was so huge. It was definitely not accidental.\n\nThe breakout is a game-changer. It means that we are in uncharted waters and that it’s a tough call to say how high can the gold-to-silver ratio really rally, since it was just strong enough to pierce through a multi-decade resistance like a hot knife through butter.\n\nThe Fibonacci extension tool can be useful here. The point is to “extend” the previous major move in a given direction by a factor of 1.618, 2, or 2.618. The last two are most interesting as the extension based on 1.618, was already reached and broken.\n\nBased on these extensions, we get targets of 134 and about 170 (barely visible on the above chart). If gold declines to $890 after all, then the gold to silver ratio at about 170 would correspond to about $5 – close to its all-time lows. \n\nCrazy? Wasn’t it just as crazy to expect silver below $12 just a month ago?\n\nLet’s take a closer look at silver’s very long-term chart.\n\nSilver in the Spotlight\n\nhttps://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/fc65ea1c6eb8e58fb858815b6c89663e.png \n\nThe analogy to 2008 that we outlined on Monday (and that we’ve been featuring for many months) clearly remains in place. \n\nAnd so does the similarity to the 2012-2013 slide. The former is marked with yellow, and the latter is marked with blue.\n\nBased on both analogies, it’s about time (and price) for silver to correct. Before declining even more.\n\nThe analogy to 2008 has been working remarkably well in terms of prices. That’s what the yellow lines represent. The most recent slide in silver is almost perfectly in tune with the initial sharp slide that we saw in 2008. Once you click on the chart to zoom in, you’ll see a thin black line that shows the size of the slide in 2008, and you’ll see that we copied it on the left side of the current decline. They are so similar that it’s shocking even for us – and we’ve been writing about this extreme similarity for many months. \n\nHow did silver perform then in 2008?\n\nhttps://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/5f7cf15f0bbe7fa8d1a2ed22e014e5db.png \n\nIt corrected to the nearest strong horizontal resistance level and the relatively round number of $14. It was about midway between the bottom and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. There was a second bottom after the initial one, two days later.\n\nHow about the current situation?\n\nhttps://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/7cf11e3b783ca3dc63991d582b0ab9d9.png \n\nSilver moved lower today, and while it didn’t move between yesterday’s and Monday’s intraday low, it’s already very close. It will take silver only about 35 cents more to decline below yesterday’s low and to make this rebound extremely similar to what happened in 2008. Then again, that’s just a cherry on the analytical cake, and the analogy to 2008 will remain intact even if the shape of today’s session is a bit different.\n\nSilver is now a bit lower than it was in 2008 in nominal terms, so the midpoint between the recent low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is below the $14 level. Is there any significant horizontal resistance located over there? Of course, there is!\n\nIt’s the 2015 bottom – it formed at $13.62. This target is aligned with the mid-point between the recent low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.\n\nAnd the analogy to 2012-2013? Please note at what pace silver declined from the very first top (blue line). During the first very volatile slide, it corrected only after it reached the declining blue line. Guess what? Copying the same line to the recent final top (the 2019 one) provides us with a line that was just reached recently. This suggests that silver is about to rebound before moving again.\n\nHow high did silver rally during the analogous correction in 2013? It moved up by about 12.7%. Applying this kind of rally to the recent low in silver provides us with $11.77 * 1.127 = $13.26 as the target for the next local bottom. Of course, this analogy is not as precise as the 2008 one, so it can be used as its confirmation – this target is very close to the 2015 low.\n\nhttps://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/bb8d8e522d5462c7579fc56ec2561eba.png \n\nOne more note regarding the 2013 corrective upswing. Please note that two days after the initial bottom, silver formed another local low and then rallied in the following days. That’s exactly the same way silver bottomed (temporarily) in 2008. \n\nToday is two days after the initial bottom, so if silver moves temporarily lower today, please keep in mind that it’s normal, and it doesn’t invalidate the scenario in which silver now corrects higher.\n\nThis could be what’s likely ahead for the stock market and other commodities as well. The S&P 500 futures are lower so far today, but this might be the final move lower before their corrective rally. Crude oil moved lower as well and it might be bottoming shortly (we just cashed in profits on our short position in crude oil). In tune with the above, mining stocks could decline early today, only to move back up later and/or in the following days – we are not exiting our long positions in the miners at this time.\n\nIn fact, the best risk to reward opportunity continues to be in the mining stocks in our view, even though silver is about to correct upwards.\n\nIt is often the case that silver outperforms mining stocks in the final part of a given rally, but after examining how corrective upswings were shaped in different parts of the PM market during the 2008, 2011, and 2013 declines, it seems that this rule doesn’t really apply in case of quick rebounds within bigger declines.\n\nIf we see signs that miners are underperforming gold and that silver would still have some sizeable upside potential, we might switch our long positions from miners to silver. It’s too early to say if we’re going to do it or not.\n\nAlso, we would like to take this opportunity to explain why we are aiming to profit on miners’ rebound only. It’s not because we’re not forecasting gold or silver at (temporarily) higher prices. The corrective upswing is likely to take place, and it seems that it’s already in progress. The point is that miners are usually the first to rally after a bottom, and they became ridiculously oversold in the short run recently, which made their run-up most likely and created the most favorable risk to reward setup. That’s why our focus is over here right now. There will be many times, when diversification between gold, silver, and miners is the way to go, but right now, concentrating on the miners seems to be a better choice. This choice proved to be very lucrative over the last few days (especially that we entered the long positions in the miners in the final 25 minutes of Friday’s session, almost right at the intraday low). \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-to-silver-ratios-breakout-acts-like-a-hot-knife-through-butter-200516997)</center>",
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      "body": "The price of oil just crashed to below $25.00 as we write this. That's right below the intraday low and $26.21 closing price of February 2016. It's also in line with the commodity's 17-year low hit in 2003, a level we forecast crude would return to in a post from last August.\n\nNaturally, at that time we couldn’t have known about coronavirus and its impact on the global economy and markets. Rather, we simply provided the technical picture, which set up a series of conditions. The market has been oversupplied for years. And, with the world under serious risk, those are all falling into place.\n\nNow, with Saudi Arabia set to ship a record 10 billion barrels a day in an all-out battle with Russia for market share, oil’s long-term trend is headed lower. Goldman Sachs says consumption is down by 8 million barrels a day.\n\nInstitutions such as Goldman and Standard Chartered are now providing targets of $20 a barrel. Mizuho Securities warned oil prices could go even more negative, as Russia and Saudi Arabia flood the market.\n\nOil Daily https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/picdea6d8ad18d43effdc4fff79698d998b.png Oil Daily\n\nHowever, as we've said in previous posts, prices don’t move in a straight line. The decline could be slowing down, after having reached past the February 2016 low. Many investors remember and are aware of that price low since financial networks keep regurgitating it.\n\nAs well, $25 is a natural support, as it's very much a round number. This makes it a likely support to push prices back above the 2016 lows.\n\nOf course, we can't know if that will happen. In addition, we recently called for another decline after the commodity completed a bearish pennant. These two forces are likely to be battling it out right now.\n\nThere's a good chance such a tug-of-war could send prices lurching in both directions—higher, then lower, in rapid swings. For disciplined risk-taking traders, in the short-term, it's a target rich environment.\n\nTRADING STRATEGIES\nConservative traders should wait for the price to return and retest the pennant, in order to prove its resistance before trading down.\n\nModerate traders are likely to wait for a return move for a better entry, not necessarily for proof of trend.\n\nAggressive traders may enter a contrarian long position, if the price closes above the $25 mark, counting on a bounce at this historic level.\n\nTrade Sample: Contrarian Long Position\n\n * Entry: $25.00\n * Stop-Loss: $24.00\n * Risk: $1\n * Target: $30.00\n * Reward: $5\n * Risk:Reward Ratio: 1:5\n   \n   Note: A trade sample is just an example. Its only intent is to introduce the basic points to incorporate into a trade. No one trade can be right for everyone, nor can every trade win. You should adjust the trade according to your temperament and budget, while keeping an eye on the structure. \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/chart-of-the-day-oil-200516912)</center>",
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      "title": "Chart Of The Day: Oil Price Tug-Of-War Makes It Hard To Tell Which Way Next"
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      "body": "WEDNESDAY FORECAST, MARCH 18\nDowntrend\n\nThe downtrend may be expected to continue while crude is trading below resistance level 26.14, which could be followed by reaching support level 22.80.\n\nUptrend\n\nAn uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 26.14, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 27.33.\n\nhttps://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic6b1bc41986f74f479082f2fb81b1d26a.png  \n\n\n\nWEEKLY FORECAST, MARCH 16 - 20\nDowntrend\n\nThe downtrend may be expected to continue while crude is trading below resistance level 30.00, which will be followed by reaching support level 27.56 and 26.15.\n\nUptrend\n\nAn uptrend will start as soon as crude rises above resistance level 30.00, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 34.85 - 36.34.\n\n\nDISCLAIMER: All information provided by Anton Kolhanov is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Anton Kolhanov is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions and seek advice from an independent financial advisor \n <center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/wti-crude-oil-continue-downtrend-to-2280-while-trading-below-2614-200516907)</center>",
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      "title": "WTI Crude Oil May Continue Downtrend To 22.80"
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