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      "author": "steemitboard",
      "body": "Congratulations @ultrablockchain! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@ultrablockchain/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@ultrablockchain) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=ultrablockchain)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "author": "idbeentaken",
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      "body": "I thought it was cool that the cryptocurrency [Zcash](https://z.cash) was highlighted in the March/April issue of <i>MIT Technology Review</i> as one of the top ten \"breakthrough\" technologies for 2018.  The full article can be found [here](https://www.technologyreview.com/lists/technologies/2018/?utm_medium=email_marketing&utm_source=mailchimp&utm_campaign=chain_letter&utm_content=10_breakthrough_technologies&utm_source=MIT+Technology+Review%3A+Marketing&utm_campaign=c09775c3d5-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8967234615-c09775c3d5-156593933), and an excerpt of the piece on Zcash is as follows:\n\n<b>Perfect Online Privacy</b>\n\n![Image 1_zec.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmRi9wDS6mjzzxKBNihquHP7Yzm1MHQdwRYbyks6CYAxkJ/Image%201_zec.jpg)\n\nTrue internet privacy could finally become possible thanks to a new tool that can—for instance—let you prove you’re over 18 without revealing your date of birth, or prove you have enough money in the bank for a financial transaction without revealing your balance or other details. That limits the risk of a privacy breach or identity theft.\n\nThe tool is an emerging cryptographic protocol called a zero-­knowledge proof. Though researchers have worked on it for decades, interest has exploded in the past year, thanks in part to the growing obsession with cryptocurrencies, most of which aren’t private.\n\nMuch of the credit for a practical zero-knowledge proof goes to Zcash, a digital currency that launched in late 2016. Zcash’s developers used a method called a zk-SNARK (for “zero-knowledge succinct non-interactive argument of knowledge”) to give users the power to transact anonymously.\n\nThat’s not normally possible in Bitcoin and most other public blockchain systems, in which transactions are visible to everyone. Though these transactions are theoretically anonymous, they can be combined with other data to track and even identify users. Vitalik Buterin, creator of Ethereum, the world’s second-most-popular blockchain network, has described zk-SNARKs as an “absolutely game-changing technology.”\n\nFor banks, this could be a way to use blockchains in payment systems without sacrificing their clients’ privacy. Last year, JPMorgan Chase added zk-SNARKs to its own blockchain-based payment system.\n\nFor all their promise, though, zk-SNARKs are computation-heavy and slow. They also require a so-called “trusted setup,” creating a cryptographic key that could compromise the whole system if it fell into the wrong hands. But researchers are looking at alternatives that deploy zero-knowledge proofs more efficiently and don’t require such a key. \n\n![Image 2 ZEC.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmbbwLQAQsSEQ9FdBhaCFfUshatHAmNff5BVc492Szpn8d/Image%202%20ZEC.jpg)",
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      "author": "ultrablockchain",
      "body": "I thought it was cool that the cryptocurrency [Zcash](https://z.cash) was highlighted in the March/April issue of <i>MIT Technology Review</i> as one of the top ten \"breakthrough\" technologies for 2018.  The full article can be found [here](https://www.technologyreview.com/lists/technologies/2018/?utm_medium=email_marketing&utm_source=mailchimp&utm_campaign=chain_letter&utm_content=10_breakthrough_technologies&utm_source=MIT+Technology+Review%3A+Marketing&utm_campaign=c09775c3d5-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8967234615-c09775c3d5-156593933), and an excerpt of the piece on Zcash is as follows:\n\n<b>Perfect Online Privacy</b>\n\n![Image 1_zec.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmRi9wDS6mjzzxKBNihquHP7Yzm1MHQdwRYbyks6CYAxkJ/Image%201_zec.jpg)\n\nTrue internet privacy could finally become possible thanks to a new tool that can—for instance—let you prove you’re over 18 without revealing your date of birth, or prove you have enough money in the bank for a financial transaction without revealing your balance or other details. That limits the risk of a privacy breach or identity theft.\n\nThe tool is an emerging cryptographic protocol called a zero-­knowledge proof. Though researchers have worked on it for decades, interest has exploded in the past year, thanks in part to the growing obsession with cryptocurrencies, most of which aren’t private.\n\nMuch of the credit for a practical zero-knowledge proof goes to Zcash, a digital currency that launched in late 2016. Zcash’s developers used a method called a zk-SNARK (for “zero-knowledge succinct non-interactive argument of knowledge”) to give users the power to transact anonymously.\n\nThat’s not normally possible in Bitcoin and most other public blockchain systems, in which transactions are visible to everyone. Though these transactions are theoretically anonymous, they can be combined with other data to track and even identify users. Vitalik Buterin, creator of Ethereum, the world’s second-most-popular blockchain network, has described zk-SNARKs as an “absolutely game-changing technology.”\n\nFor banks, this could be a way to use blockchains in payment systems without sacrificing their clients’ privacy. Last year, JPMorgan Chase added zk-SNARKs to its own blockchain-based payment system.\n\nFor all their promise, though, zk-SNARKs are computation-heavy and slow. They also require a so-called “trusted setup,” creating a cryptographic key that could compromise the whole system if it fell into the wrong hands. But researchers are looking at alternatives that deploy zero-knowledge proofs more efficiently and don’t require such a key. \n\n![Image 2 ZEC.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmbbwLQAQsSEQ9FdBhaCFfUshatHAmNff5BVc492Szpn8d/Image%202%20ZEC.jpg)",
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      "author": "haejin",
      "body": "Nice chart and data!",
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      "body": "Upcoming catalysts to more mainstream adoption in 2018:\n\nhttps://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ultrablockchain/bitcoin-s-roadmap-to-mainstream-adoption-in-2018\n\nThere is an exponential relationship between Bitcoin's user base and the valuation of the underlying cryptocurrency - so there is significant upside as cryptocurrency adoption grows over the course of this year:\n\n![Bitcoin regression_4.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQma9rDoyndaDMjmvJE6cwNe4vPvwrHdMqEGBJRpqtx4KZ1/Bitcoin%20regression_4.jpg)",
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      "body": "Hello ultrablockchain!\n\nCongratulations! This post has been randomly Resteemed! For a chance to get more of your content resteemed join the [Steem Engine Team](https://steemit.com/steemit/@steemengineteam/join-steemengine-today)",
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      "author": "ultrablockchain",
      "body": "I agree with that assessment.  In the US, there is about 13% of the population who has signed up for a cryptocurrency wallet, which doesn't mean that number actually \"uses\" cryptocurrencies.  In reality, if you look at actual \"users\" of this innovation, it is likely still in the \"Innovator\" category.",
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      "author": "wekkel",
      "body": "Beautiful post. You express the thought that the chasm may not be far away - at least in the US. Although I would like being close to that moment, my gut feeling is that we are still at the early innovators phase. Cryptocurrency is simply not used enough for commerce yet to gain something close to 13-16% in order to reach the 'crossing the Chasm' event. In my opinion, we are still at the early adopters  (innovation) phase with speculative routs every now and then.\n\nWhich is fine because that gives us more time to build up our portfolios.",
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      "author": "ultrablockchain",
      "body": "Good news for Bitcoin (and Ether) adoption.  We can add this to the 2018 catalysts that will promote further adoption of Bitcoin this year and create significant upside potential in the asset's value:\n\nhttps://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ultrablockchain/bitcoin-s-roadmap-to-mainstream-adoption-in-2018\n\n![Bitcoin regression_3.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYmPbyMcFcqo5cfaS73MiKF521NK9w1Jyit9v6uvZbRuw/Bitcoin%20regression_3.jpg)",
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      "author": "ultrablockchain",
      "body": "Big fundamental catalysts on tap for further Bitcoin adoption in 2018 as well.  Exponential upside as user base increases, so seemingly an attractive risk/reward profile over the course of this year:\n\nhttps://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ultrablockchain/bitcoin-s-roadmap-to-mainstream-adoption-in-2018\n\n![Bitcoin regression_3.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYmPbyMcFcqo5cfaS73MiKF521NK9w1Jyit9v6uvZbRuw/Bitcoin%20regression_3.jpg)",
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  "block": 19355470,
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    {
      "author": "mykarma",
      "body": "hey so nice I really like your post! Thanks for it! I actually wrote my 2nd part of my introduceyouself and I write about that I went to jail because of cryptos... lets make steemit together to a better place with our content! I would like to read a bit more about you and maybe do you have some more pictures? Maybe you upvote me and follow me swell as I do? https://steemit.com/counterfeit/@mykarma/2-jail-review-counterfeit-euro-speeeeending-time",
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      "author": "ultrablockchain",
      "body": "@@ -1,12 +1,44 @@\n+DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION THEORY%0A%0A\n The Diffusio\n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"bitcoin\",\"blockchain\",\"cryptocurrency\",\"cryptocurrencies\",\"investment\"],\"image\":[\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmQVzRk8gGLVCCjoDhcw4YAongURDwWGckTzcgdwYFowTx/Diffusion%20curve_slide%201.jpg\",\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmT6YafMBJzC4rGYHBgrK54cB5L4r5HjcrdWVgRcaNywUK/Chasm%20chart_2.jpg\",\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmYmPbyMcFcqo5cfaS73MiKF521NK9w1Jyit9v6uvZbRuw/Bitcoin%20regression_3.jpg\"],\"links\":[\"http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/SB/BehavioralChangeTheories/BehavioralChangeTheories4.html\",\"https://alyjuma.com/the-chasm/\",\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States#Ages\",\"https://www.quora.com/What-is-Coinbases-market-share\",\"https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/keep-eye-out-these-bitcoins-tech-trends-2018/\",\"https://themerkle.com/what-is-bitcoin-fungibility/\",\"https://www.elementsproject.org/elements/schnorr-signatures/\",\"https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ultrablockchain/bitcoin-a-clear-path-to-usd50-000-in-2018\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\"}",
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      "body": "The Diffusion of Innovation Theory was developed by EM Rogers in 1962, and it describes how ideas are spread among groups of people over time.  According to this theory, certain groups of people within a society adopt new ideas (or technologies, products, behaviors, etc) sooner than others.  How quickly these groups of people adopt new technologies depends on a variety of traits that, per the Diffusion of Innovation Theory, fall into 5 categories (1):\n\n1.) Innovators - These are people who want to be the first to try the innovation. They are venturesome and interested in new ideas. These people are very willing to take risks, and are often the first to develop new ideas. Very little, if anything, needs to be done to appeal to this population.\n\n2.) Early Adopters - These are people who represent opinion leaders. They enjoy leadership roles, and embrace change opportunities. They are already aware of the need to change and so are very comfortable adopting new ideas. Strategies to appeal to this population include how-to manuals and information sheets on implementation. They do not need information to convince them to change.\n\n3.) Early Majority - These people are rarely leaders, but they do adopt new ideas before the average person. That said, they typically need to see evidence that the innovation works before they are willing to adopt it. Strategies to appeal to this population include success stories and evidence of the innovation's effectiveness.\n\n4.) Late Majority - These people are skeptical of change, and will only adopt an innovation after it has been tried by the majority. Strategies to appeal to this population include information on how many other people have tried the innovation and have adopted it successfully.\n\n5.) Laggards - These people are bound by tradition and very conservative. They are very skeptical of change and are the hardest group to bring on board. Strategies to appeal to this population include statistics, fear appeals, and pressure from people in the other adopter groups.\n\n![Diffusion curve_slide 1.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmQVzRk8gGLVCCjoDhcw4YAongURDwWGckTzcgdwYFowTx/Diffusion%20curve_slide%201.jpg)\n\nIn addition, there are 5 primary factors that influence adoption of an innovation, as follows:\n\n1.) Relative Advantage: is the innovation superior to what it replaces?\n2.) Compatibility: is the innovation consistent with the needs of potential adopters?\n3.) Complexity: is the innovation is difficult to understand or use?\n4.) Triability: can the innovation be tested prior to adoption?\n5.) Observability: does the innovation provide tangible results?\n\nBITCOIN ON THE INNOVATION ADOPTION CURVE\n\nMost people would likely agree that Bitcoin lies within the “Early Adopters” stage of the adoption curve presented above.  Particularly in 2016-2017, an influx of early adopters came to the party, as the “use case” for Bitcoin was disseminated to a broader audience in a way that clearly articulated the 5 factors that influence adoption.  Importantly, the “Triability” factor was refined with exchanges, such as Coinbase in the US, which made it very easy for a mainstream audience to buy Bitcoin (and Ether and Litecoin, for that matter).  \n\nFor many early adopters, the extent to which Bitcoin (or other cryptocurrencies) provides tangible benefits over fiat currencies may still be up for debate, given scalability issues and slow confirmation of transactions that hit the Bitcoin network in late 2017.  However, this issue likely depends on the location of the early adopter.  For instance, the benefit of Bitcoin over the Venezuelan bolivar or Aregentine peso is likely much clearer for residents of these countries than Bitcoin’s perceived benefit over the US dollar for most Americans.\n\nA complementary theory suggest that there is a “chasm” that separates early adopters from the early majority.  An innovation has to “cross the chasm” in order to be accepted by the mainstream market, which is much more skeptical than the early adopter category (2).  To me, it appears as if Bitcoin is at the chasm; and issues such as scalability have to be addressed prior to this innovation being accepted by the “early majority” that comprises the mainstream market.\n\n![Chasm chart_2.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmT6YafMBJzC4rGYHBgrK54cB5L4r5HjcrdWVgRcaNywUK/Chasm%20chart_2.jpg)\n\nIf we use the United States as an example, there are approximately 245 million adults (3).  The most popular cryptocurrency exchange in the US is Coinbase, which purports to have roughly 13 million accounts.  If we assume that Coinbase holds 42% of the cryptocurrency exchange market in the US (4), then that implies there are around 31 million Americans that at least have an account on a cryptocurrency exchange.  If we just look at this metric, it would suggest that 12.7% of American adults have adopted cryptocurrencies - at least on some level.\n\nThis estimate is below the 16% threshold that separates “early adopters” from the “early majority” and confirms that Bitcoin/cryptocurrency adoption is nearing “the chasm.”\n\nBitcoin’s adoption in other countries should be similar to that of the US.  While it could be higher or lower, I am very confident that adoption still falls within early adopter and is grappling with the adoption issues posed by The Chasm.\n\nThe key question: how long will Bitcoin stay at The Chasm prior to moving to more mainstream adoption?\n\nThere are a number of catalysts on tap in 2018 that could help move Bitcon closer to crossing The Chasm and include the following (5):\n\n- Major wallets, such as Coinbase and Bitcoin Core, are set to adopt the SegWit protocol upgrade in 2018, which would help to decrease network congestion and ultimately lower transaction fees and confirmation times.\n\n- Further integration and testing of the Lighting Network, which promises near-free transactions and instant confirmation.  Lighting Network adoption among developers and end users in 2018 will provide positive catalysts to support a move to more mainstream adoption of the cryptocurrency.\n\n- Projects such as TumbleBit and Zerolink are set to improve the privacy of Bitcoin transactions, which will help ensure the cryptocurrency’s fungibility.  This is a critical step in making Bitcoin succeed as a global payment network (6).\n\n- Development of sidechains, which could enable faster confirmation times, enhanced privacy, extended smart contract capabilities, or all of the above.  Sidechain projects such as Liquid and RSK could be deployed in 2018.\n\n- With the activation of SegWit, it could be relatively easy to implement Schnorr signatures, which would allow multiple Bitcoin address signatures to be aggregated into a single signature and should benefit Bitcoin’s scalability (7).\n\nAs these developments unfold over the course of 2018, the speed and scalability of Bitcoin’s network should improve over current levels, strengthening Bitcoin’s position among the 5 primary factors that influence adoption of innovation - Relative Advantage, Compatibility, Complexity, Triability, and Observability - as outlined previously in this post.\n\nANALYSIS OF BITCOIN’S VALUATION ALONG THE ADOPTION CURVE\n\nAs Bitcoin moves along the innovation adoption curve and moves closer to mainstream adoption, its market capitalization (price per Bitcoin multiplied by supply of Bitcoin) will appreciate.  The chart below outlines a regression analysis of Bitcoin’s market cap vs. the 7 day average daily transaction volume.  This analysis suggests an exponential increase in the value of Bitcoin as adoption grows (R2 = 73.8%; not the strongest R2 but still a meaningful correlation and “directionally correct”).\n\n![Bitcoin regression_3.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYmPbyMcFcqo5cfaS73MiKF521NK9w1Jyit9v6uvZbRuw/Bitcoin%20regression_3.jpg)\nSource: Ultra Blockchain Advisors LLC analysis of data from www.blockchain.info\n\nIn a previous post, I outlined an analysis of my Bitcoin price target of $50,000 by year end 2018 (8).  A key consideration in this analysis was a re-allocation from fiat currencies, as represented by a country’s M2 money supply and traditional investments, to cryptocurrencies.  In my analysis, a 1.34% re-allocation from M2 money, stocks, and private equity would create a demand level of almost $2.6 trillion for cryptocurrencies.  At a 1/3 share of this market, Bitcoin would achieve a market cap of over $854 billion (or $50,000 per Bitcoin).\n\nWhile this represents a large move from more traditional stores of capital, it would make sense as Bitcoin gains more credibility among the “early majority” and more mainstream adopters - likely as the speed, scalability, and fungibility of the cryptocurrency improve in 2018 and beyond.\n\nCONCLUSION\n\n- Per the Diffusion of Innovation Theory, Bitcoin is being adopted by “early adopters” who represent less than 16% of the ultimate user base.\n\n- There is a “chasm” that separates “early adopters” from the “early majority,” which represents a hurdle to more mainstream adoption of an innovation and must be overcome by convincing a more mainstream user-base that Bitcoin offers benefits over the “status quo” based on 5 primary factors of adoption.\n\n- There are at least 5 concepts that will be developed further in 2018, which could provide meaningful catalysts toward more mainstream adoption of Bitcoin, namely as it relates to overcoming issues with scaling and speed of transaction confirmation.\n\n- As Bitcoin moves further along the Diffusion of Innovation curve and starts to be adopted by the “early majority,” the valuation upside is significant, as getting past this inflection point would mean incremental demand in the trillions of dollars range.\n\nThank you for reading this article.  If you have any questions or would like additional information, please message me or email me at [email protected].\n\nFootnotes:\n\n(1) http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/SB/BehavioralChangeTheories/BehavioralChangeTheories4.html\n(2) https://alyjuma.com/the-chasm/\n(3) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States#Ages\n(4) https://www.quora.com/What-is-Coinbases-market-share\n(5) https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/keep-eye-out-these-bitcoins-tech-trends-2018/\n(6) https://themerkle.com/what-is-bitcoin-fungibility/\n(7) https://www.elementsproject.org/elements/schnorr-signatures/\n(8) https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ultrablockchain/bitcoin-a-clear-path-to-usd50-000-in-2018",
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      "body": "I expect Bitcoin (BTC) to hit $50,000 by the end of 2018, which would represent a return of 3.4x from the closing price of $14,595 on January 9, 2018 (per www.coinmarketcap.com).\n\nSome of the primary factors driving this increase will be as follows:\n\n- Continued flow of M2 money from fiat currencies into cryptocurrencies from residents of countries where political and monetary policy instability create an unfavorable environment for holding the local fiat currency.\n\n- Flow of investment capital from Chinese investors seeking a higher-yielding and easier-to-execute store of value compared to real estate investments outside of China.  Investors from other countries with similar capital control dynamics and political/monetary policy friction will also re-direct capital into cryptocurrencies that otherwise would have been earmarked for commercial and residential real estate investment in countries with more favorable investment dynamics. \n\n- Re-allocation of invested capital from stocks and private equity into cryptocurrencies based on more attractive return potential, in addition to investment portfolio diversification benefits from cryptocurrencies’ low correlation with other asset classes.\n\n- Additional potential upside from cryptocurrency adoption from the 1 billion people in the world who have mobile phones but do not have bank accounts.\n\n- Additional potential upside from investment in gold, silver, and other precious metals re-allocated to BTC as a store of value.\n\nThere does not have to be a major shift in any of these factors in order for the overall cryptocurrency market to hit $2.6 trillion in market capitalization within the next 12 months (or sooner).  Assuming BTC maintains a 1/3 share of this market (vs. current share at 33.5% as of the time of this writing on 1/9/18), then total demand for BTC would reach $854 billion, or roughly $50,000 per BTC.\n\nThe chart below outlines the projected demand for cryptocurrencies - and, specifically, BTC - based on the factors discussed above.  A detailed explanation of the assumptions behind these numbers is discussed in the sections of this blog post following the chart.\n\n![BTC Forecast.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYbp33DrkxbR3JeUfirvWrbAzmYvA2dQ7PojKVu2fW9eY/BTC%20Forecast.jpg)\n\nShift from M2 Money to Cryptocurrencies\n\nI estimate that 0.30% of the global M2 money supply (cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, money market funds, and other time deposits) will be allocated to cryptocurrencies in 2018.  This will generate $347.4 billion in demand for these assets.  The major countries driving this growth will be as follows:\n\n- Venezuela (1.00% of country’s M2, or $90 billion)\n- China (0.30% of country’s M2, or $77 billion)\n- Japan (0.60% of country’s M2, or $52 billion)\n- United States (0.30% of country’s M2, or $41 billion)\n\nThe demand for cryptocurrencies among Venezuela’s population has been well documented and driven by major instability in the fiat currency and political corruption in the country (1).  Therefore, it does not seem unreasonable to assume that at least 1% of Venezuela’s M2 moves into cryptocurrencies such as BTC.\n\nIn my analysis, I assume that countries that rank high on the Bitcoin Market Potential Index score, which measures the potential for Bitcoin/cryptocurrency adoption (see footnote 2), will also have approximately 1% of M2 move into cryptocurrencies from the riskier fiat currency of those countries.  Venezuela carries a BMPI ranking of #2.  I assume that Argentina (BMPI ranking #1), Brazil (#17), Nicaragua (#29), Nigeria (#7), and Zimbabwe (#3) will also have roughly 1% of M2 move into cryptocurrencies.\n\nThe United States carries a BMPI ranking of #5; however, since the political and monetary policy of this country is (presumably) stronger than the countries listed above, I assume that only 0.30% of United States M2 money moves to cryptocurrencies.  This would lead to $41.4 billion in demand for cryptocurrencies from US holders (or “hodlers\" as the case may be).  This number seems to correspond to the fact that, based on a recent survey, approximately 25% of US millennials favor cryptocurrencies over other investments (3), along with the fact that there are over 13 million accounts opened on Coinbase (4).\n\nThere are 75.4 million millennials living in the US (5).  If we assume that 25% of these individuals buy cryptocurrencies, with an average investment of $1,825, then this would lead to total demand of $34.4 billion for cryptocurrencies (83.2% of my estimate for the entire US cited above, which is likely conservative).  In addition, if we look at the 13 million Coinbase accounts and assume that each account buys an average of 0.143 Bitcoins, then that would lead to approximately $26 billion in demand.  Each of these figures supports the total cryptocurrency demand in the US included in my analysis of M2 movement in the United States.\n\nI estimate that China (BMPI ranking #27), India (#22), Indonesia (#152), Russia (#11), and Turkey (#35) also see 0.30% of M2 money shift into cryptocurrencies.  In fact, there is likely a higher incentive for residents of these countries to move into Bitcoin as a store of value vs. the fiat currency, given political and/or monetary policy instability in each respective country.\n\nA recent report from Nomura Securities estimates that there are 1,000,000 people in Japan holding an estimated 3,700,000 Bitcoins (6).  This corresponds to around $51.8 billion in cryptocurrency demand.  I use this as the basis for my estimate that 0.60% of M2 money in Japan will continue to move into cryptocurrencies, which would create $52.4 billion in demand.  I believe that South Korea will have a similar share as Japan, despite recent FUD about regulators cracking down on exchanges in that country.\n\nFor the “rest of the world,” I assume that 0.10% of M2 money moves into cryptocurrencies.  In total, I estimate that 0.30% of global M2 moves into cryptocurrencies, which contributes $347 billion in demand.\n\nCapital re-directed from real estate investments to cryptocurrencies\n\nAnother factor supporting my demand estimates is the fact that real estate investments, which have been popular with the Chinese and South Americans, appear less attractive as a store of value compared to Bitcoin for future investments.  Therefore, money that would have been invested in real estate could be re-directed to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin instead.\n\nIndividuals and corporations in China invest in excess of $20 billion annually in real estate abroad, and estimates indicate there is an additional $200 billion available to invest (7).  However, it is getting much more difficult for Chinese investors to move money out of China, due to steps that Chinese authorities have taken to constrict capital flight in an effort to stabilize the local fiat currency, the yuan.  Even with the restrictions that Chinese authorities recently have placed on local cryptocurrency exchanges, it still is much easier for investors to acquire cryptocurrencies than real estate abroad, especially for individuals.  \n\nTherefore, as the $200 billion or more in capital is set to be invested by the Chinese, I believe cryptocurrencies will take a growing share of this in 2018.  In my analysis above, I assume that 0.30% of China’s M2 money supply will be allocated to cryptocurrencies.  This accounts for just over $77 billion of demand for cryptocurrencies, a portion of which will be driven by capital previously allocated to real estate investments.  \n\nThere are other countries that share this dynamic, including Brazil, Venezuela, and Russia (8); and I believe investors in these countries will continue to shift at least a portion of their investment capital from real estate into cryptocurrencies.  This provides further support to my demand estimates above.\n\nRe-allocation of capital from stocks and private equity to cryptocurrencies\n\t\nThe value of investments in the global stock markets totals approximately $73 trillion (9), and total capital invested in private equity is roughly $2.5 trillion (10).  I expect there to be continued re-allocation of capital from stocks and private equity into cryptocurrencies in 2018.  \n\nThe S&P 500 returned 17.4% (excluding dividends) in 2017, which is a solid return for the stock market overall.  However, this pales in comparison to BTC’s 1,300%+ return over the same timeframe.  As investors seek better returns, and as exchanges develop more user-friendly applications that make it easier to acquire cryptocurrencies, I believe investors will re-allocate at least 3% of their stock market investments into cryptocurrencies in 2018.  In addition, a recent survey indicates that a large portion of millennials actually favor investing in cryptocurrencies instead of stocks (see footnote 3).  Further, as illustrated in the regression analysis below, cryptocurrencies exhibit no correlation to the stock market, which should enhance diversification in the context of an overall investment portfolio.\n\n![BTC Regression.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmfW2b2diRxX5tgV1pBjJAAuRCFyxir3yRsRZkiAQk1Vu8/BTC%20Regression.jpg)\n\nIn my opinion, these factors make a 3% re-allocation from stocks to cryptocurrencies an achievable target in 2018.  This re-allocation would add close to $2.2 trillion in demand for cryptocurrencies.\n\nThe median annual return for private equity funds was 12-13% (source: Preqin; see footnote 10).  Given the illiquidity of private equity investments, along with lagging returns due to an over-supply of capital chasing the same limited number of deals, it would make sense for investors to move some money into cryptocurrencies from this asset class.  I estimate that 1% of the capital invested in private equity will be re-allocated to cryptocurrencies in 2018, as the low-quality deal flow and lackluster returns drive investors to seek a more attractive investment.  This would add almost $25 billion in demand for cryptocurrencies. \n\nThere has also been much discussion of Bitcoin as “Gold 2.0.”  Private investment in precious metals, such as gold and silver, could potentially be re-allocated to cryptocurrencies as a store of value; however, that is likely something that will have a greater impact beyond the 2018 timeframe.  While the amount of mined gold exceeds $7 trillion, the actual amount of this that represents this asset held as an investment is closer to $1 trillion to $2 trillion.  Therefore, this might not be as massive a factor driving Bitcoin higher - albeit still a solid source of upside if capital does get re-allocated from gold to Bitcoin.\n\nOther potential upside\n\nI believe the 3 themes discussed above will be the key drivers of the value proposition for investment in and adoption of cryptocurrencies in 2018.  There are other factors that could support upside for the cryptocurrency market but are more difficult to quantify - at least as it relates to impacting the value of the market in 2018 - and they include the following:\n\n- Cryptocurrency adoption among the 1 billion people in the world who own a mobile phone but do not have a bank account (11) \n\n- Cryptocurrencies, such as BTC, being used in place of fiat currencies for a portion of the $5.1 trillion in daily foreign exchange transactions (12) \n\nConclusion\n\nThere will be continued demand for Bitcoin coming from a number of countries, as this asset represents an attractive alternative as a store of value compared to the local fiat currency.  However, the big mover for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as illustrated in the chart in the earlier section of this post, will be capital re-allocation from global stocks and private equity.  Overall, I expect approximately $2.6 trillion in demand for cryptocurrencies in 2018, with BTC taking a 1/3 share.  At this share, the demand for BTC would be $854 billion, which corresponds to a price of $50,000 per BTC.\n\n\n\nFootnotes:\n\n(1) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/venezuelans-are-seeking-a-haven-in-crypto-coins-as-crisis-rages\n(2) http://fc15.ifca.ai/preproceedings/bitcoin/paper_14.pdf\n(3) https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blockchain-capital-survey-finds-over-one-in-four-millennials-would-prefer-investing-in-bitcoin-over-stocks-and-bonds-300551422.html\n(4) https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/27/bitcoin-exchange-coinbase-has-more-users-than-stock-brokerage-schwab.html\n(5) http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/25/millennials-overtake-baby-boomers/\n(6) http://www.businessinsider.fr/uk/bitcoin-could-be-adding-03-to-japanese-gdp-2017-12/\n(7) https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/16/chinas-real-estate-investors-on-a-200b-global-spending-spree.html\n(8) https://www.buildium.com/blog/why-foreign-investors-buy-property-in-usa/\n(9) http://money.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-money-markets-one-visualization-2017/\n(10) http://docs.preqin.com/samples/2017-Preqin-Global-Private_Equity-and-Venture-Capital-Report-Sample-Pages.pdf\n(11) https://www.theverge.com/2015/2/4/7966043/bill-gates-future-of-banking-and-mobile-money\n(12) https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx16fx.pdf",
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      "body": "Overview\n\nIn this post, I outline a 2018 price target of $1,375 for Ether (ETH), which represents 82% upside from the current price of $755 (data from www.coinmarketcap.com as of time of this writing on 12/31/17).\n\nAs background, Ethereum is a platform for developers to build decentralized applications (Dapps), with Ether (ETH) used as the currency paid by the developers to build Dapps on Ethereum.  Therefore, the key driver of the valuation of ETH is the underlying demand from prospective developers on the Ethereum platform.\n\nThrough smart contracts, Ethereum holds significant long-term potential as a way to displace essentially any business that relies on a third party intermediary to disburse funds under a contract.  Some applications of Ethereum, as outlined in the white paper on this platform, include financial contracts, hedging contracts, savings wallets, wills, employment contracts, multi-signature escrow, peer-to-peer gambling, and on-chain decentralized marketplaces (1).\n\nAnalysis\n\nThe market capitalization for ETH demonstrates a strong correlation (R2 > 93.6%) to the average number of daily transactions on Ethereum.  \n\n![ETH regression.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmZaKmNKDq8HxUFx1UZ5JUVHCY77HCYpuVMLj84UyjXerY/ETH%20regression.jpg)\n\nBased on this regression analysis of the market cap for ETH vs. the average number of daily transactions on Ethereum, the trendline for this relationship is as follows:\n\ny = 0.0753(x) - 1,104.4\n\nwhere: \n\ny = market cap of ETH in millions of US dollars and\nx = number of average daily transactions on Ethereum platform\n\nThe number of transactions on Ethereum has grown from 41,220 at year-end 2016 to 1,136,659 at year-end 2017 (2).  I believe there is enough momentum for transactions to hit 2,000,000 by year-end 2018.  This increase is transaction volume will be driven by a number of factors, including additional development projects from financial institutions in the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance, additional progress on scaling the platform, and overall higher level of adoption among developers.\n\nUsing the relationship established in the regression analysis above, the market cap forecast for ETH is $149.5 billion at an average daily transaction volume of 2,000,000.  My estimate for the supply of ETH outstanding by year-end 2018 is 108.7 million ETH, up 12 million from the current supply of 96.7 million ETH as of 12/31/17 (3).  Therefore, my price target for ETH at year-end 2018 is $1,375 ($149.5 billion market cap / 96.7 million ETH supply).\n\nMy 2018 price target of $1,375 for ETH represents 82% upside from the current price of $755 per www.coinmarketcap.com as of the time of this writing on 12/31/17. \n\nGiven the strong momentum of development on the Ethereum platform, the average number of daily transactions could easily exceed 2,000,000 by year end 2018.  If transactions hit 3,000,000, then the market cap of ETH could trade around $224.7 billion (or $2,068 per ETH); and if transactions hit 4,000,000, then the market cap of ETH could trade around $300.1 billion (or $2,761 per ETH).\n\nTherefore, ETH continues to represent an attractive cyrptocurrency investment opportunity at this point in time for investors with a 1+ year investment horizon.\n\nFootnotes:\n\n(1) http://www.the-blockchain.com/docs/Ethereum_white_paper-a_next_generation_smart_contract_and_decentralized_application_platform-vitalik-buterin.pdf\n(2) https://etherscan.io/chart/tx\n(3) https://etherscan.io/chart/ethersupplygrowth",
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      "body": "<html>\n<p>Congratulations <a href=\"/@ultrablockchain\" target=\"_blank\">@ultrablockchain</a>, you have decided to take the next big step with your first post! The Steem Network Team wishes you a great time among this awesome community.</p>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"pull-left\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmaAdLUJ3yaSkmcmWECWyPGPWcjfbCoZ8Tu4RM6H4DbjCi/steem-network-thumbs-up.gif\" alt=\"Thumbs up for Steem Network´s strategy\" title=\"I suggest Steem Network´s strategy\" width=\"320\" height=\"222\"></div>\n<h1>The proven road to boost your personal success in this amazing Steem Network</h1>\n<p>Do you already know that <a href=\"/@originalworks\" target=\"_blank\">@originalworks</a> will get great profits by following these <a href=\"/steem-network/@steem-network/spread-your-posts-through-this-proven-strategy-and-get-great-profits-in-return--for-posts-created-at-2017-12-29\" target=\"_blank\" alt=\"Steem Network\" title=\"Follow Steem Network´s suggestions to boost your success\">simple steps</a>, that have been worked out by experts?</p>\n</html>",
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