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      "author": "yechengfang",
      "body": "In December 29th, Cai Yingwen visited the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) research and development exhibition hall with Chen Jianren, the deputy, and narrates with the media year-end tea. During the tea period, the media asked, \"China's military aircraft activities are frequent, coupled with the turmoil in East Asia, how should Taiwan be due?\" Cai Yingwen said this is \"not the situation that Taiwan faces,\" but the situation that the country faces together in the whole region. Cai Yingwen said, \"in fact this region all countries on regional peace and stability, all agree, even Chinese are difficult to rule out such views, it is absolutely not on both sides of the problem is to solve the military force, but by peaceful methods with different opinions and positions\". She believes that the leadership of the mainland of China should be a rational decision maker, and that any possibility of moving to Taiwan should not be in the current decision thinking.\nIn fact, the number of public concern out Wcomrades should also remember that out before analysis, Cai Yingwen is the existence of adventure could really go, especially the \"de jure independence\" in the referendum on the route, it may go farther and farther, and now the Cai Yingwen administration and the DPP in terms of Technology readiness are almost the same, the next step is to choose the walking problem. However, many experts still think that Cai Yingwen will not be the actual \"Taiwan independence\", in the end seems this view is dangerous at this stage, as if holding this attitude, Cai Yingwen once entered a substantive \"Taiwan independence\" movement, may make us be taken by surprise as in 2014 the Kuomintang \". The nine\" election defeat than we expected. The reason why Cai Yingwen is really adventurous is not the root cause of how big she is, but she really thinks. In Cai Yingwen's mind, as long as the United States was in, the mainland would not also dare to force Taiwan, and the mainland would not carry out the military. And, over the years we have been in the signal the release of the peace, and in recent years we are focusing on \"upgrading and deepening the reform of the economic structure transformation The Belt and Road\" initiative, the domestic, these let Cai Yingwen think, can not use force against Taiwan\n        With this basic understanding of subjective mentality, because of the DPP's \"Taiwan independence\" program, the Cai Yingwen administration will strive to seek substantial \"Taiwan independence\" in power, and will find opportunities to achieve this goal. That is to say, she will make all preparations for it, and try to do that when she is the most disadvantageous to the mainland, then let the mainland be caught off guard, so as to achieve the goal by surprise and form the established fact. This opportunity, from the past half year of the Cai Yingwen administration, has seen her and the DPP both looking at the new strategy in the United States and the strategic line differences between the United States and the United States.\nIf we pay attention will find that the Cai Yingwen administration and the DPP by modifying the referendum bill in time, and the US national security strategy report will China as a strategic rival time is almost the same, the same is not a simple coincidence, but planning and objective and clear rhythm control behavior. If this inference is reasonable, this means that the Cai Yingwen administration will then look for the opportunity of \"legal independence\" and \"Taiwan independence\" according to the state of Sino US relations. If this assumption is reasonable, then this means that we are not facing the next DPP \"risk seeking independence\" possibility, but then if the DPP has really gone \"de jure independence\" and \"Taiwan independence\" that a substantial step, we deal with the problem.\n\nBefore that, Li Kexin, a Chinese envoy to the United States, said publicly in the us that \"when the US ship arrived in Kaohsiung, it is the day of the PLA's military unification.\" this means that our red line has been completed. However, the Cai Yingwen authorities in Taiwan were obviously not particularly true to this sentence, but they listened to the words as intimidation and deterrence. In other words, in the view of the Cai Yingwen authorities, the central government of the mainland has put this sentence to scare Taiwan and will not carry it to action. If we understand Cai Yingwen and DPP's cognition on this issue, we can see that their performance is not hard to understand after they declared \"Wu Tong\" condition on the mainland.\nCai Yingwen did not think that the mainland would be able to fight Taiwan or Taiwan, and many people would not care much about it. But this is a serious problem for us. Because this may directly lead to Cai Yingwen's risk taking \"legal independence\" and \"substantive independence\". This has brought great uncertainty to the strategic direction of Taiwan, China and the United States, and its risks and negative effects are very large.  Because, we all know, we say that the \"Wu Tong\" is really in place after being touched by the red line. But we must also see that that is the way we have to do it. It is not our active choice. Of course, the cost of doing so will be very large. At the very least, at this stage, this will put a heavy bomb on Sino US relations, bringing great uncertainty to the future strategic layout of China. For us, we draw down the red line of the \"Wu Tong\", which is for the sake of the light of the two victims. However, the Cai Yingwen administration's cognition of the situation means that we may force us to use force, so that we can reset Sino US relations and reset our strategy.\nThe unification of Taiwan for us is certainly important, but we will go to consider uniform costs and feelings of compatriots, not to cannot but do not want to use high cost, hurt the feelings of the Cambrian, otherwise the country would use military means to complete the reunification of the. However, if we are not prepared enough or the measures are not enough, let Cai Yingwen declare \"Taiwan independence\" at a wrong time and be forced to win the battle, so our opportunity cost and the cost will be even higher. So, in the end, we have to prepare for that once Cai Yingwen really took the \"Taiwan independence\" that step, we can immediately give Taiwan to \"Cambrian\". To put it plainly, there are sufficient plans, because everything must be based on our ultimate weapon system, so we can talk about peaceful reunification. Otherwise, peaceful reunification is empty talk.\nWhen we are fully aware of Cai Yingwen's understanding on the mainland of the Cambrian, when we realized that Cai Yingwen was doing well when we take the plunge, Cambrian, it should be based on the Wu Tonglai exercise strategy.\nIt seems that the Cai Yingwen administration may not believe that the mainland will be a member of the military system. But we must let the us understand that once the US or Cai Yingwen authorities touches the red line, the Chinese martial arts process is bound to open and there is no room for negotiation. Because, only to let the United States government that Chinese government is not a joke but a hammer, then the United States to play the Taiwan card will be more careful, you will go to the White House to curb the Cai Yingwen administration to avoid war across the Taiwan Strait and the United States in a disadvantage. Frankly speaking, China needs to kick the leather ball of the Taiwan Strait to the United States, allowing the United States to balance the advantages and disadvantages of the United States to the containment of the \"Taiwan independence\" force rather than the use of it. To achieve this effect, you have to let the United States believe Cambrian red line can not touch the China, as long as you believe China force not to touch the red line, then not on this issue, in order to gloss it over walking a fine line, the corresponding signal will be passed to the Cai Yingwen administration when.\nWhen the United States by the Taiwan brand has become the \"Taiwan independence\" forces of containment, the situation across the Taiwan Strait would form a new balance. On Chinese, in the new equilibrium state under the Chinese, there is more to expand the power of the Pacific time period, rather than direct decorum in taiwan. To speak more directly, it is to avoid the major major power contradictions from the us to the United States and the United States to avoid the turning of the world's biggest hot spot from the Middle East to the Taiwan Strait. Of course, if one day the United States further into the Middle East quagmire, a lot of things to you, but before that we should try to avoid the contradictions between China alternative contradictions has become a big country of main contradiction, to avoid this point Cai Yingwen at this point is the X factor, to try to eliminate the X factors",
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      "body": "在被问到“你认为自己是台湾人、中国人，或都是？”时，认为自己是“台湾人”的岛内民众比例为56.4%，认为两者“都是”的占34.1%，另外还有不到10%的人认为自己是中国人。也就是说，不认为自己是中国人的至少占56.4%，认为是中国人的台湾人顶多是4成左右，与不认同的比例还有十几个百分点的差距。由此可以看出，台湾的国家和民族认同度，的确依然不高。\n\n\n看完这样的数据，是不是很扎心？的确太扎心了！他们黑头发黄皮肤，讲中国话，写中国字，却不认为自己是中国人，数典忘祖不肖子孙，你说恶心不恶心？扎心不扎心？\n\n不过，不得不说的是，这次民调，只认同自己是台湾人而不是中国人的台湾人，占比已是5年新低。2017年，民调自认为自己是台湾人而非中国人的比例高达76.7%，一年时间下滑幅度超过20%。与认同自己是台湾人而非中国人比例大跌形成鲜明对比的是，认同自己是台湾人也认同自己是中国人的台湾人比例却大增，占比是历年新高，其中认为“都是”的就占34.1,%，加上认同自己是中国人的回答者，这一数据大约达到4成，而1年前这一数据只有2成多。民调调查，2017年20到29岁的民众自认是“台湾人”的比例占76.7%，30岁到39岁自认为自己是“台湾人”的比例高达66.8%；这一数据到了2018年，前者下降到了72.7%，后者下降到了59%。\n\n经过这个数据对比，我们会发现，蔡英文执政一年半时间，台湾人对国家的认同度不降反升，这和马英九时期截然相反啊！马英九时期，国家认同度是不断下降的，而蔡英文仅仅上任一年半时间，台湾人国家认同度就得到了飞升，这已经初步证明一点：蔡英文执政，两岸统一的速度会更快！蔡英文推进“台独”的同时，支持“台独”的人反而降低了，国家认同度反而提高了。如此，估计蔡英文干满任期，支持统一的人数就要超支持“台独”的人数了。如果蔡英文狗急跳墙，搞“急独”，那就直接武统了，台湾统一得将更快！\n\n进一步看上述的民调数据，我们会发现这样的规律，即台湾的年轻人、青年人是“台独”思维的主力军，这与绿营过去20多年对台湾民众的“台独”洗脑密切相关。而且，越年轻的人在“台独”思维上反而就越顽固。在自认为自己是“台湾人”的比例一年下降20%的情况下，20到29岁的比例却只下降了4个百分点，30到39岁的比例也只下降了7.8%。由此可以推断，最早转变观念的，是40岁以上的成年人，他们有更强的国家认同感。\n\n不过，在过去一年的时间里，自认为是“台湾人”的人数就出现如此大幅的萎缩、国家认同感的人就有如此大幅的增加说明，台湾人的思想不但不是不可改变的，恰恰相反，他们的思维是比较容易改变的。\n\n看来，过去一年台湾人国家认同度大幅提升有三个重要原因：\n\n一、蔡英文“立功”了！\n\n在改变台湾人认同度方面，蔡英文还真是“救世主”，立“头功”，她执政一年半，台湾民众国家认同感大幅提升，比马英九时期强太多了，马英九时期这一数据是不断下降的，因此“功劳簿”上应该狠狠地给她记一笔。这样，将来两岸统一蔡英文被抓起来的时候，就可以不必死刑了，可以考虑降为死缓。\n\n试想，如果不是蔡英文不承认“九二共识”，我们也不会下决心对台湾施加更多压力，那么台湾看起来也不会突然这么衰。台湾如果不是那么衰，台湾老百姓也不会发现原来马英九不是世界上最无能的人，蔡英文才是啊！蔡英文不但无能，还很坏，要把台湾带上不归路。\n\n而另外一些台湾人睁眼一看，原来现在大陆比台湾好，根本不是吃不起茶叶蛋和方便面，而是现在台湾方便面在大陆快卖不动了，他们肯定觉得自己被蔡英文给骗了，于是国家认同度自然就上升了。\n\n蔡英文倒行逆施，那就让她再继续一下，这样两岸统一会更快一点！\n\n二、年长者对历史的记忆让他们更容易改变。\n\n如果大家注意2017年和2018年的数据变化会发现，20岁到40岁的中青年变化相对较小，那么变化大的应该是40岁以上的中老年。这充分表明，台湾人的确是过去20多年绿营给毒害的。当然，这也说明，越成熟的人会越现实，当他们发现国民党不行，选了民进党之后也不行时，就会反思现在谁行。与此同时，如果他们看到了大陆的中共原来比台湾的国民党、民进党行太多时，他们会反思的，正所谓没有比较就没有选择。看来，有了这样的比较，国家认同度提升就不偶然了。\n\n三、台湾离开大陆是真不行。\n\n过去一年，由于蔡英文当局迟迟不承认一个中国，于是大陆切断了两岸官方往来，同时对台的一些支持政策也没有了，台湾参加国际活动机会越来越少，甚至连台湾人出台湾旅游买机票都会遇到麻烦。更重要的是，台湾经济一塌糊涂，让人看不到任何希望。由此可以看出，台湾离开大陆是真的不行，而美国也好日本也罢，根本救不了台湾经济，更何况台湾和日本在一些领域还是竞争对手。当越来越多的人意识到台湾真独立不了，台湾离开大陆真不行，那么他么的国家认同、民族认同会提升，人在温暖的时候可能不知道冷暖，但大冬天裸奔就一定会知道的。\n\n而且，更为严峻的形势是，面对蔡英文当局不断推进“台独”，大陆已经宣布武统红线，并且解放军的舰机已n才绕台，这都让很多台湾人认识到“台独”已彻底没有出路。一方面是没有出路，一方面又是大陆的重大发展机遇，这种对比时间长了台湾人的心理会发生更多变化。\n\n通过上述台湾民调的变化，我们会发现之前的观点是正确的，即我们一定要划下武统红线的同时，努力通过宣传、统战、经济、外交、准军事等等手段，让更多的台湾人增加对国家的认同，让他们知道“台独”没有出路，不统一没有出路，而统一之后会迎来美好日子。如此，支持统一的人会越来越多，反对“台独”的人会越来越多。未来，无论是武统还是和平统一，归属感都非常重要，这关系到台湾未来长期的可持续发展问题。\n\n其实，通过数据，我们也能发现应该如何实施对台宣传和统战工作。既然20岁到40岁的台湾人最为顽固，40岁以上的台湾人更有国家认同，那么我们就针对这两个群体的特点实施不同的统战策略。\n\n年轻人，要的是发展机遇，要的是收入提升，那么我们就给台湾年轻人提供发展机遇，可以在福建等沿海省份建立适合台湾来大陆就业的产业园，吸引台湾20岁到40岁的年轻人到大陆创业、就业，先把这批人给拉到大陆来，让他们适应大陆的生活再说。当他们的现实利益与大陆捆绑，他们的命运与大陆发展连接，他们自己回去就会宣传。直白说，就是要让20岁到40岁的台湾人到大陆淘金，当来到大陆的人赚得多，地位高，自然就会有更多台湾年轻人到大陆发展，这批人的思想自然也就有变化了。\n\n至于40岁以上的台湾人，我们可以鼓励他们到大陆定居、生活，让他们体会大陆比台湾的先进，当他们讲给自己亲戚朋友都是大陆的好，台湾当然就会有更多人愿意到大陆来发展、定居。\n\n与此同时，对于那些顽固的“台独”分子，要强化打压，包括在世界范围内很多国家要进行包括私人活动的限制，要让那些给自己贴“台独”标签的人未来出台湾就寸步难行，以此来威慑这些人。一般这些人都是精英，当他们意识到“台独”的成本和代价时，若非“台独”的核心分子，他们会尽量淡化“台独”情绪，这样对台湾民众的引导自然就是认同一个中国的声音更强而非像过去那样。\n\n在对台统一方面，我们要做两手准备，和平统一为努力方向，武统为终极手段，时机到了或迫不得已必须出手，根据实际情况哪种手段合适就用哪种。但是，无论用哪一种手段，都关系到未来统一后的治理与发展问题，现在进行宣传和统战工作都非常重要。因为，未来哪怕是武统了，更多的人支持统一的情况下，未来岛内治理也将会更加容易一些，统一的成本和未来的过度时间也会更短一些。\n\n当然，无论如何不管怎样，目标就只能有一个：统一！而且，统一的准备工作应该从现在就开始干！从宣传和统战下手，用军事手段、经济手段、外交手段等等去挤压“台独”们的活动空间，然后让台海局势越来越接近统一。换句话说，在当前局势下，无论是蔡英文当局推进“台独”，还是台湾“统派”人士推动统一，最终都只能是加速将两岸推向统一，这样才是正解。如果蔡英文当局不断谋求“台独”并且越过红线，军事手段应对，她独的那天就是两岸统的那天；对“统派”我们要大力支持，要让他们加大力度推动两岸一统。\n\n随着时间推移，当越来越多的因素支持统一时，那么统一也就瓜熟蒂落了！其实，武统或和平统一的形式是次要的，统一是否按我们主导的节奏更快地瓜熟蒂落才是最重要的！",
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      "body": "时值岁末，手机品牌纷纷亮出自己的成绩单。国内手机品牌官方公布的数据显示，2017年华为出货量1.39亿台，OPPO出货量1.2亿台，vivo出货量9800万。这一业绩让国人欢呼鼓舞，但骄人的业绩背后却是惨淡的利润。\n\n\n\n　　市场研究机构Counterpoint近日对2017年三季度各手机厂商的利润进行了调查。数据显示，苹果手机单台的利润高达151美元，是三星的近5倍，是中国厂商均值的近14倍。同样是做手机，苹果手机利润是国产手机的十几倍，这是为何?\n\n　　iPhone手机高利润之谜\n　　苹果手机暴利在业内已经不是秘密，每次苹果发布新品后，都会有一些骨灰级的拆机高手，按照拆解的硬件对苹果手机硬件制造成本进行估算。那么，苹果手机的利润为何如此高呢?\n\n　　去年，微博上曝光了一台256G的iPhone X手机实际物料成本，包括处理器、屏幕、PCB板等加起来一共412.75美元，折合人民币2711元。按照一部256G的iPhnone X售价是9688元来算，iPhone X的利润是3.5倍。如此高的利润，让国产手机望尘莫及。既便是考虑到前期的研发成本，单台iPhone X的利润也要在2-3倍之间，同样高出了业内水平。\n\n　　按照市场研究机构Counterpoint公开的数据，华为手机单台利润为15美元，OPPO、vivo分别为14美元和13美元，小米手机利润向来都很低，单台仅为2美元。与苹果手机的利润相比，国产手机的利润微薄。苹果手机之所以有如此高的利润，一是因为苹果的品牌有非常高的溢价能力;二是因为苹果在供应链领域拥有非常强的话语权，这使得苹果手机硬件采购成本比其他手机厂商要低很多。\n\n　　据悉，苹果用在iPhone X上的OLED屏幕，采购价格在80美元左右。台湾供应链人士称，国产手机品牌向三星采购的OLED屏幕，价格大约在100美元左右，是苹果采购价格的1.25倍。试想，一台手机的零部件有几十个，仅硬件采购方面，国产手机的成本就要高出苹果一大截，这是苹果手机利润高的一个重要原因。\n\n\n\n　　在品牌溢价方面，苹果的溢价有目共睹。从早期的iPhone 4产品，到当下比较火的全面屏手机iPhone X，苹果手机的售价都是硬件成本的2-3倍左右，如此高的溢价，是苹果手机高利润的又一个重要原因。反观国产手机，以销售排行前两名的华为和OPPO来说，单台利润在15美元左右，品牌溢价几乎可以忽略不计。\n\n　　国产手机重销量是一大硬伤\n　　从财报上来看，苹果手机的销量并不是最高的，但利润却是最高的。如果说国产手机品牌输在哪里，一味重视销量，这可以说是一大硬伤。正是因为过度重视销量，这才让国产手机走入一个误区。\n\n　　多年来，国产手机品牌一直把提升销量看成一个终极目标。接连不断的价格战，成为国产手机利润低迷的罪魁祸首，小米手机的异军突起，就是一个牺牲利润用低价绞杀对手的典型案例。2012年国内智能手机市场尚处在孕育期，主流的智能手机价格在3000元左右。为了迅速占领市场，小米推出了价格1999元的智能手机，并且搭载了高通的双核处理器。现在看来，小米成功的用高性价比占领了手机市场，并屡次成为国内销量最高的品牌。\n\n　　从消费者的立场来说，小米的崛起，拉低了智能手机的售价，用户因此受益，这是不争的事实。不过，从智能手机行业的发展来看，小米用凶残的价格战击败了对手，迫使华为、OPPO和vivo等手机品牌拉低产品售价，这对于整个行业的发展是致命的。在激烈的价格战中，酷派、联想、中兴等一批资历较老的手机品牌近乎被市场淘汰，而华为和OPPO、vivo等手机品牌的利润也受到了小米这个搅局者的蚕食。\n\n\n\n　　在利润方面，华为单台手机的利润在15美元，OPPO和vivo分别是14美元和13美元，而小米的单台手机利润仅有2美元。按照这一趋势发展，低价将是国产手机的一味慢性毒药。没有充裕的利润，就难以支撑研发，没有自主创新，国产手机就没有未来。小米的低利润，已经让小米品尝到了苦果，2016年销量大幅下滑就是真实写照。\n\n　　虽说小米经过战略调整已经走出销量下跌的泥潭，但这并不意味着小米能够与华为、OPPO和vivo这三家打持久战。十几年前，国产手机凭借低价把三星、摩托罗拉等国际手机品牌打得落花流水。眼下，三星和苹果却成为全球利润最丰富的手机厂商。\n\n　　除了疯狂的价格战影响了国产手机的利润外，在供应链上过于微弱的话语权，也影响了国产手机的利润。由于手机核心配件被国外巨头垄断，既便国内最强大的手机品牌华为，在供应链上的话语权也非常弱，这也是华为旗舰经常缺货的一个原因。\n\n　　写在最后：从表面来看，国产手机一直玩价格战消费者会受益。殊不知，接连不断的价格战让很多国产手机倒闭后，真正的受益者是苹果、三星这样的国外品牌。没有利润，任何手机品牌难以生存，发展更是无从谈起。苹果手机单台利润是国产手机的十几倍，这足以说明价格战对国产手机行业的巨大破坏力。如果一味重视销量，并试图用低价占领市场，国产手机会输得更惨。",
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