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      "body": "## Introduction\n\nIn a previous post I wrote about whether [mean reversion is better than trend trading](https://t.me/zettt_trading/1452), and also about [my most favorite indicators](https://t.me/zettt_trading/1609). Followers of my trading log know that I'm also writing my own strategies, indicators, algos, whatever you want to call them. In this post I'd like to go into more detail why I'm doing this, and how I'm testing strategies.\n\n## Why I Develop My Own Strategies\n\nAs traders we are need to find an edge in the markets. That edge can be anything. Over the years, I've seen and heard the weirdest stuff. Some people trade patterns, some people trade levels. I'm interested in trend following systems.\n\nThe reason the edge is so important because the market's going to do what the market's going to do. A traders' edge is often small. How small? That is what we need to figure out. It's a very sciency approach to trading. The question I wanted to answer for myself is this:\n\n> What if I had a monkey, and that monkey traded for me. How successful would that monkey be? What instructions does the monkey need to trade?\n\nAnd so that started a big big rabbit hole.\n\n## The Monkey and Backtesting\n\nAt the beginning of this journey is a simple question, and I am 100% certain anyone of my followers has been asking themselves this:\n\n> What if I traded the MACD crossover *blindly*, is it any good?\n\nSome other strategies involve the RSI. It's commonly known that you \"long in oversold\", and \"short in overbought\". But *have you actually tried this*? If not, then you have some work to do! Because I've been doing this work, and I can tell you one thing: longing in oversold, and shorting in overbought is an absolutely horrible strategy. I don't think it had even a 50% success rate. Similarly trading MACD crossovers. Nonsense. Horrible. Don't do it.\n\nAnd thus, the sciencing begins. As I explained in the mean reversion vs. trend trading post, one question always always comes up: if the standard strategy is so bad, *how can we make it better?* That's where we absolutely need to start backtesting. Because if we get broke, we can't stay in the game long enough.\n\n## How I Backtest\n\nThere are multiple backtesting websites and apps out there. I tested a bunch, but they didn't work for me. I was always just better off simply manually testing strategies. At the time this seemed to be the most time-intensive way of doing it, but in the end worked a lot better for me. I recommend you do the same thing.\n\nThe most important part in backtesting is that we need to make it as bad as possible for ourselves, because when we're actually trading, we're going to perform a lot better than our worst, but a lot worse than our best. So, that means:\n\n* We take the worst entries.\n* Orders are only counted filled when price goes *through* the virtual order we had.\n* We test the strategy under the same conditions and absolutely unemotionally.\n\nWe think in R, and/or R-multiples. This is not the post where I will explain what that is, I'm just going to assume you do. If you don't, then please search the internet first. In short, R is the risk we take on a trade, and R is also the reward we get. So it makes sense to think in R and multiples of R.\n\nFor my own backtests I always did this. I just opened a somewhat random chart. Not always BTC, but always the same timeframe, but always the same asset for one specific \"kind\" of strategy. So all MACD crosses were tested on LINK on the 1h, for example. I used swing points as invalidation levels. I also tested the ATR as stop loss, but that didn't work at all for the stuff I was testing. Market structure breaks worked a whole lot better, and also made a lot more sense to myself. After I had decided on a strategy, I just used the position tool on TradingView, and everytime the condition was met, I drew a trade. Then looked to the right for success or failure. After that I made a spreadsheet where I collected all losses and wins. I would recommend you also take note of successful/lost shorts and longs. This is because crypto and similar markets like stocks, have a high tendency to go up. And if you have a strategy that doesn't seem to work so well on the short side, then maybe you only want to play longs.\n\nAfter I had that data, I only made a note for myself of how successful that specific strategy was, and continued onwards to the (drumroll) FORWARD TEST.\n\n## The Forward Test\n\nIn my opinion forward testing is *even more important* than backward testing. The forward test is a test under real conditions. And, the same rules apply here too: we test under the worst conditions possible. We take the worst entry, and go 1R on the entry.\n\nFor me personally I have multiple timeframes that I am testing, and that I'm watching. For example, I have alerts on the screener for the 12h. The 12h obviously closes at midnight every day. Normally I wake up at around 5 to 6am. The signals that I draw on the chart I take at the current closing price without any hesitation, without any other discretion. Just straight out of bed, and then straight to trading. Well, maybe not that straight, I get a cup of tea first, and then I draw a bunch of virtual trades on the chart. For my own personal testing I'm testing 1:1 risk to reward. My idea is that a strategy that has at least an edge of 50% or more on 1:1 is a winner in the long run.\n\nMy own strategy TF (short for Trend Following) had a success rate of 74% in backtesting on the hourly. In the forward tests, under the conditions I just mentioned, it had only a 60% success rate on a 1:1 risk to reward on the 12h. Now keep in mind that I took these trades under the absolute most braindead and worst conditions possible. That means the \"truth\" is somewhere between 60-74%. That's actually pretty good, if you think about it.\n\nThe important thing to learn here is:\n\n* Knowing to have a statistical advantage. Sometimes I look at the chart, and I don't think it can go higher. I also think it can't go lower. But TF says \"goes lower\". I know that statistically speaking TF is right. So, do I trust my gut, or do I trust the sytem? If you've done the work above, you come to a point, where you start \"believing\" in your own system.\n* Markets are random. We never know when the market's going to crash again. We never know the when the next pump is going to occur. So, we need to play it \"safe\". How much safer than knowing what to do?\n* It helps with analysis paralysis. Once you have a fixed set of rules, there's really not much to add.\n* Knowing where the edge is helps with perfectionism. Markets are not coherent, they are more or less random. Actually less random than total randomness, but still very random. That means, dreaming of never being underwater is more or less just an illusion. And personally I am very very bad at this myself.\n* Being unemotional is one of the most important things to learn here. When I started trading, and was just dumb, I had absolutely no problem buy every dip, when something just kept on dipping. You know this feeling too. Trading needs to become mechanical. \"Every time I see this, I do that.\" It's an exercise. The more often we do it, the better we get at it. Being underwater sucks. At least I hated that feeling of being underwater, once I improved. But after that initial learning curve I learned about the statistical edge, and then being underwater wasn't feeling so bad anymore. I knew I was getting up ahead about 60% of the time, no matter how bad it gets. \n\nObviously the win/loss statistics go again into the spreadsheet for evaluation. \n\n## Summary\n\nI feel a \"cold\" forward test is more important than a backtest, because it tests a strategy under \"real\" conditions. Except, of course, it costs you the effort.\n\nHappy testing. ;-)\n\n----\n\nIf you find the information in this channel helpful, please share and invite your friends: [Zettt's Trading Log](https://t.me/zettt_trading). Let me know if you'd like to read more of this type of content. My private account is Zettt on [Twitter](http://twitter.com/zettt) and [Telegram](https://t.me/zettt). Donations in BTC: `bc1q77mmp5uzehkuafkwjcrlah5260895jf0szplsz`.",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"trading\",\"backtesting\",\"bitcoin\"],\"links\":[\"https://t.me/zettt_trading/1452\",\"https://t.me/zettt_trading/1609\",\"https://t.me/zettt_trading\",\"http://twitter.com/zettt\",\"https://t.me/zettt\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.2\",\"format\":\"markdown\"}",
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      "author": "cheetah",
      "body": "Hi! Did you know that steemit.com is now censoring users and posts based on their opinions?\n All the posts of these users are gone!\nhttps://github.com/steemit/condenser/commit/3394af78127bdd8d037c2d49983b7b9491397296 \n\n Here's a list of some banned users:\n```'roelandp', 'blocktrades', 'anyx', 'ausbitbank', 'gtg', 'themarkymark', 'lukestokes.mhth', 'netuoso', 'innerhive'```\nSee anyone you recognize? There could be more, they also have a remote IP ban list.\n\nWill you be censored next?",
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      "author": "zettt",
      "body": "# Is it Time to Buy Bitcoin? (March, 2020)\n\nIf you find the information in this channel helpful, please share and invite your friends: [https://t.me/zettt_trading](https://t.me/zettt_trading). Let me know if you'd like to read more of this type of content. My private account is Zettt on [Twitter](http://twitter.com/zettt) and [Telegram](https://t.me/zettt). Donations in BTC: `bc1q77mmp5uzehkuafkwjcrlah5260895jf0szplsz`.\n\n## Introduction\n\nI've been checking out some statistics on the Bitcoin network, to see where we are in the cycle. I think one question that all of us occupies is:\n\n> **Is the bottom in? Are we entering a bull market?**\n\nBe prepared to click through a couple of images with this post. My observations say this is an *extreme* phase we're in. Some metrics print such an extreme signal, it's hard to ignore. But, and that is the important part, there is no clear sign this is the absolute bottom, *just yet*.\n\n## Bullish Signs\n\n### Logarithmic Growth Curves aka. The Rainbow Chart\n\nI'll start with the [logarithmic growth curve](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-logarithmic-growth-curve/), that is sometimes also referred to as \"the rainbow chart\". We've fallen out of it. Clearly.\n\n![Logarithmic_Growth_Curves.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcuhnMDPAdi1TQaBijQZgs8LWt8ZBAq8evsAtWYJUVEyY/Logarithmic_Growth_Curves.png)\n\n\nThis removes the myth that Bitcoin price adheres to some sort of logarithmic growth, all the time.\n\n### Stock-to-Flow Model\n\nThe all beloved [Stock-to-Flow](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/) is at saying we're extremely undervalued. It hasn't been this negative since 2016, right around the previous halving. This makes me very excited. Normally this would be *the* signal to go all in--under different circumstances. I'll explain later why this isn't screaming \"buy me now\".\n\n\n![Stock_to_Flow.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUhox2YYAoWv3AjC6zJ4Tk9ZZebb1pzd2EXnFAFSfejiT/Stock_to_Flow.png)\n\n\n### Network Congestion\n\nNow what does the Bitcoin network itself say? The [Bitcoin network](http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-congestion/) says that it is processing a lot of transactions right now. As you all may be aware, we're facing a global economic crisis, so it makes sense that Bitcoin has to process more transactions, whether it's people *entering*, or *exiting* the market. Usually when the Bitcoin network gets congested, prices go up, because there's no one to trade with on an exchange, because their Bitcoins are stuck (unconfirmed) on the network. I'm regularly checking in on network congestion for my personal use, because I'm *actually* using Bitcoin. I've seen transactions increasing for a very long time now, and I'm happy to see this now getting more extreme. It means people transact Bitcoin. This is good. I'm not so happy that it gets harder to transact at 1 sat/b anymore so easily, but I'll survive.\n\n\n![Congestion.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZSp4erkHirFsmStBBpWybGigmfTbgr2UPhBJALRpfHgB/Congestion.png)\n\n\n### HODL\n\nNow here's another extremely good sign. On this last drop to 4000$, there's never been so much *new demand* entering the space in many years. The [HODL Waves](http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-hodl-waves/) statistics below reveal this data:\n\n> Bitcoin HODL Waves is a visualisation pioneered by Unchained Capital, it shows the cross section of Bitcoin held in wallets grouped by the age since they last moved. The upper contours, represent supply (old coins that have remained unmoved) while the lower contours represent new demand (coins that have recently shifted). The composite view clearly shows each bull cycle bringing in new demand.\n\n\n![HODL_Waves.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbj3WqGzQSPkNp4L1iQTnHMDkVvwdTCnTvVV33YJYVGWG/HODL_Waves.png)\n\n\n### Other Valuations\n\nThe most extreme bullish signal I could find is [David Puell's Delta Cap](http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-valuations/) valuation model.\n\n> The Realised Cap minus Average Cap. Useful for catching the market bottom, and also as a timing indicator for market tops and the start of the bull phase by tracking its oscillation between Realised Cap and Average Cap.\n\n\n![Valuations.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZDTFnruQwSuRXtUtBfitgNHMNE1a4ChsiptF5vw8xwsS/Valuations.png)\n\n\nWhat a giant jump, huh?\n\n## Bearish Signs\n\nI'd say I'd go all in without even thinking about it, *if* there weren't strong counter indications, that this is not the right time to buy *just yet*. For everyone who caught the bottom at 4k, or the pullback to 4.5k, kudos to you. You're doing well. But you might want to have a stop loss in place, just in case we're going lower.\n\n### Volatility\n\nFirst one I'd like to look at is [volatility](http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-volatility/). In terms of *historic* volatility Bitcoin is not at its extreme yet. According to this chart we're only at 25% volatility. Just as a reference point, the capitulation in 2018 went up to 40%. This means we have still room to go, and other metrics confirm that there's a chance that we might.\n\n\n![Volatility.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQumD5wNCxUAM9V73q8PJcFuuauuQi3QxHhThN8znDyNL/Volatility.png)\n\n\n### 2-Year MA Multiplier\n\nOne of my favorite, long term, indicators is the [2-Year MA Multiplier](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/). This thing *just started* printing a buy signal. Looking at the past, when it enters the buy zone, there's enough time to buy Bitcoin. There's no need to rush.\n\n\n![2-Year_MA_Multiplier.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYBwK3QZ5fxHjJiPtAtWz95y8EXxVTFpm3pSKHbpG33QL/2-Year_MA_Multiplier.png)\n\n\nAlso notice the way we capitulated the last time. After the big drop, there was a kneejerk run up afterwards, before another final grind down. I'm inclined to believe we are in the phase, where we're trying to go up again, but the market doesn't want to.\n\n### MVRV\n\nAnother very good metric is the [MVRV Z-Score](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/):\n\n> MVRV Z-Score uses blockchain analysis to identify periods where Bitcoin is extremely over or undervalued relative to its 'fair value'.\n\nNote that the best time to buy is when this indicator reaches the bottom edge of the green buy zone.\n\n\n![MVRV.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbrxmYYyznWy6StqMV3Ag5zK1bekreZpmNpqHNgRcugba/MVRV.png)\n\n\n### Miner Capitulation\n\nOne more of my personal favorite indicators is hashrate difficulty, or miner capitulation. Basically, whenever the price of Bitcoin goes below what is costs to mine, miners have the option to:\n\n* Mine at a loss, therefore staying in the game, in the hopes the price will go back up again.\n* Take out a fiat loan, to keep the operation running. Same argument as above, but with the twist that this loan has to be paid back eventually.\n* Turn off miners.\n\nUsually when this form of problem arises, we see a *significant* decrease in mining hashrate. Many miners have to turn off their machines. A decrease in the hashrate means that Bitcoin will lower the difficulty at which a block can be mined. This adjustment takes time however. During this period fewer blocks are mined, and they take longer to mine. This further adds to network congestion because there are now more unconfirmed transactions waiting to get included in the next block.\n\n\n![Miner_Capitulation.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmahCqtqWxgF24uiabhHU1tTrJcFsXPVp8ipdTLFgPPUq2/Miner_Capitulation.png)\n\n\nNote that the last time we had such an extreme capitulation, it took 70 days until this specific indicator printed a buy signal. Also note the massive bull run afterwards. I've also included where we would be in about 70 days from now. You can see that this would take us right into the halving time.\n\nI've also included the previous halving in 2016, where this indicator prints a deep red bar because of the sudden drop in supply. The miner capitulation took place *after* the halving last time.\n\n## Conclusion\n\nIs it time to buy Bitcoin right now? No, I don't think it is. I believe the reasons should be very clear by now. We're facing a global pandemic with the Coronavirus. We're facing a recession because of it. This is the first time in Bitcoin's history where this happens, and we don't know how it will react to it. This comes at a time where Bitcoin is also going into the halving, which cuts new supply in half. Under normal circumstances this would be the most and best time to buy Bitcoin in the last four years. However there's nothing in the charts, nor the metrics outlined in this post, to *rush* your long-term HODL position. I believe we have plenty of room to go lower still. I'm extremely excited what will happen in the coming two months, but, of course, I'm also extremely worried.\n\n----\n\nIf you find the information in this channel helpful, please share and invite your friends: [https://t.me/zettt_trading](https://t.me/zettt_trading). Let me know if you'd like to read more of this type of content. My private account is Zettt on [Twitter](http://twitter.com/zettt) and [Telegram](https://t.me/zettt). Donations in BTC: `bc1q77mmp5uzehkuafkwjcrlah5260895jf0szplsz`.",
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      "author": "zettt",
      "body": "# How I Became A Bitcoin Maximalist in 3 Years\n\nIf you find the information in this channel helpful, please share and invite your friends: [https://t.me/zettt_trading](https://t.me/zettt_trading). Let me know if you'd like to read more of this type of content. My private account is Zettt on [Twitter](http://twitter.com/zettt) and [Telegram](https://t.me/zettt).\n\n## Introduction\n\nI'd like to write a little bit of a personal story in this post. My journey into cryptocurrencies started December 2016, when we were recording a conference where one of the speakers talked about Bitcoin and blockchain. Obviously the whole \"you are your own bank\" thing totally caught my attention, and I was hooked the years moving forward.\n\n2017 was the year of the shitcoin, and the ICO. It was when I got more into financial math than I ever imagined, and it got me into the trade of trading, which I still find very enjoyable, although very hard in terms of execution. Back then I was fascinated by all these projects, and their promises to change the world for the better. Every currency sounded better than the other, and to a certain degree they were, or are, but I also had my difficulties.\n\nLet's fast forward to a more grown up view of the industry.\n\n## The Traders Dilemma\n\nTraders are, I realized, unemotional towards the asset they are trading. It doesn't matter if something goes up or down, as long as it makes enough profit. So if something is actually used somewhere is irrelevant.\n\nI'm also a very technical person. So I've been trying to use some of these coins for things outside of a crypto exchange. The truth is, no one really accepts these \"currencies\", or is using them at all. Many of these so called \"blockchains\" promise to solve a scaling problem they just don't have. And to you, as an \"investor\", they promise that these scaling solutions will be needed because of the massive growth and adoption these \"blockchains\" will have.\n\nThis might sound preposterous to some of you, but even the large cap cryptocurrencies are not taken for payment anywhere. Bitcoin is stigmatized for being a \"black market\" currency, when research has shown it's rarely used for it. But as far as my research goes, these alts are only taken on these markets. I don't know anyone whom I could send some Dash to. I don't want to get into the technical details why these blockchains seem to be so full then, so let's just say that I say \"rarely used for anything\".\n\n## Price Manipulation\n\nIn 2019 and the early 2020 my suspicion of the space grew, as I watched the infamous 52 mill. order book spoofer appear. No matter if you belief in spoofing or not. What they have done is push the price to our current high at around 10.000 Dollar. Of course everyone was happy, because many \"traders\" (in parenthesis) suddenly made money again, and everything was just okay. Except, I grew skeptical, because I found out about institutional order flow ([1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5UpXhYXnAM&t=665s) and [2](https://medium.com/@getgoodcrew/best-guide-to-trading-barts-you-will-ever-see-c4fb0db24ff)).\n\nThere's also [JOE007](https://twitter.com/J0E007/status/1232680950817001474), an apparent smart trader, who got underwater with a short, and got roasted for being in such a short for such a long time. And obviously there are other \"maximalists\", which stories all started making a whole lot of sense.\n\n## Blockchain as a Cash Machine\n\nWhat if the \"altcoins\" weren't made as an alternative for Bitcoin, but as a means for their founders to make an enormous amount of money in an unregulated market? What if skeptical folks like Tone Vays, JOE007, and many many many other market analysts are right? What if they know their shit better than any new kid on the block investor? Makes sense? Read on.\n\nThe not so nice sound reality that nobody wants to face is: what if someone would create a project out of thin air, and dump their huge bags of premined coins on you, only to make money?\n\nIs that too far stretched? I mean, nobody thought Volkswagen would manipulate their engines, but they did. Various other industries have been caughting hiding the truth as well. It's logical, in a way, because businesses need to survive. And to survive they need to sell. And that's the bitter pill I needed to swallow (again).\n\nBecause let's face it: In private chats from people on my trading blog, the response is pretty much always the same.\n\n> \"I trade these coins only to make a quick buck.\"\n\nNot a single one actually intends to use Ripple outside of Binance. And that's what these people call an industry.\n\nCrypto is an industry. It's an industry where the miners create coins, that they need to sell. [If you want to read more about my theory of the market, please visit my trading blog. It's for the intermediate traders. In this post I explain in a lot more detail why we had our recent mini-bull market.](https://t.me/zettt_trading/177)\n\n## Why Satoshi Left\n\nSo keeping all this in mind, I started to wonder: What if Satoshi left Bitcoin so that it can be truly free--as in \"also free from its creator\"--, or whether he left because he saw what Bitcoin, and its smaller cousins, might become?\n\nWhatever the circumastances of his leaving, it made sense to be fully bullish on Bitcoin only. I'm still wondering if Bitcoin really needs a monetary value attached to it, or whether all this trading is just pure nonsense. Maybe humans aren't supposed to interact with Bitcoin directly, and it's only programmable money computers can use? Think about all those lost coins every year.\n\nI mean, who knows? Who knows what Bitcoin is going to be in the future?\n\n----\n\nIf you find the information in this channel helpful, please share and invite your friends: [https://t.me/zettt_trading](https://t.me/zettt_trading). Let me know if you'd like to read more of this type of content. My private account is Zettt on [Twitter](http://twitter.com/zettt) and [Telegram](https://t.me/zettt).",
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