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      "body": "<h1>Last week's recap:</h1>\nI said I'd sell BTC around $4,800 and rebuy all I can under $4,400. Well, the market hasn't recovered, not even trying to reach resistance at $4,000. \n\n<h1>This past week:</h1>\n**Boring week?**\nThe crypto market hasn't been sideways since early August, which is a huge relief from the bearish weeks suffered the previous two weeks. Last time it was like this ETH was in the $280-$310 range, and then it soon shot up 35% to nearly $400, will we see the same thing in these upcoming weeks? \n\nI don't think so. Observing the volume, support is very weak for ETH above $240. You'd expect lots of buyers during an entire week with no bad news, but that's not what happened. Volume is about half what it is during a healthy period - to me, this means the smallest bad rumor will crush it. \n\n**My plans**\nPreviously, I bought BTC/ETH at $4200/$290 playing small bounces. I'm going to keep my BTC for trading alts, but I'm going to sell most of my ETH around $300 (I would sell less if there were more alts available for trading with ETH under my conditions, but due to lack of choices I'd rather convert to fiat). Why am I in such a hurry to cash out to fiat (which is almost taboo in crypto)?\n\n**How I see ETH moving in the next 2 months:**\nResistance at $300 and support at $220: (300-220)/220 = 36.4% gain.\nResistance at $350 and support at $225: (350-225)/325 = 7.7% gain.\nResistance at $380 and support at $350: (380-350)/350 = 8.5% gain.\nTotal compounded gain = 60%\n\nIgnore the timeline on the chart... I can't draw on an accurate timeline. \n![Screenshot 2017-09-23 15.55.20.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmXU93og79aLt3Q5tbCZ72ntiukaJmV93gVLmtE2oAnf4F/Screenshot%202017-09-23%2015.55.20.png)\n\nThis is *very* conservative IMO. If ETH bounces off any of these supports multiple times that's an additional 7-20% gain. If each bounce you can milk for 2% more that also compounds. I see a total return of 60% to 200% return depending how actively I'm able to trade and if it bounces around multiple times, and especially if it cracks previous support or resistance for only a second. \n\nUntil ETH breaks out of $400 resistance or dips below $120, there's no reason to think twice about ETH's movement - this is what I'll be sticking to. \n\n<h1>Why ETH and not BTC?</h1>\n\nBoth BTC and ETH will move similarly, but ETH's % gains and losses will be significantly higher. Additionally, ETH is currently trading at 7-7.5% the value of BTC; back in June/July ETH was trading at 10-15% the value of BTC. This is another easy double up (although inflated and unstable) which I'll trade ETH into BTC until it's back at a base. \n\n<h1>Next 2 months:</h1>\nI plan on being less active in crypto. I'll take more macro positions in BTC, ETH, and alts. I've identified some alts I want to get, and when I want to enter and exit. Now's it's just a waiting game to get into the high EV entires. Additionally, I'll be switching my attention to javascript, which I've been too distracted from :(\n\nP.S. Alts I'm looking at for the next month:\nMAID Currently: 13 Enter: ASAP Exit: 21\nGNT Currently: 67 Enter: ASAP Exit: 165\nXZC Currently: 30 Enter: 20 Exit: 40\nBAT Currently: 56 Enter: 40 Exit: 66\nNEO Currently: 53 Enter: 49 Exit: Spikes over 140",
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      "parent_permlink": "btcprediction",
      "author": "bitsky",
      "permlink": "captain-s-log-9-15-17",
      "title": "Captain's Log 9/15/17",
      "body": "<h1>Last week's recap:</h1>\n\nI predicted BTC/ETH to sit at $4k/$300 and then **SUDDENLY** drop to $2500/$200, total movement within 2 weeks. And I was a very right, although I missed a tiny bit. Both coins did sit at the target prices, but BTC only fell to $2900 instead of $2500. ETH fell **EXACTLY** to the $200 I predicted. I anticipated BTC being oversold a lot more, but the market really stepped in to support at $3,000. Prices move for whatever reasons. There's always going to be noise to influence market movements. The disciplined trader (which I'm NOT) ignores all of it and just follows the charts, which don't lie. \n\n\n<h1>Do as I say (not financial advice blah blah blah don't sue me), not as I do. </h1>\nI was buying BTC/ETH around $4200/$290 to play the small bounces. I was unable to respond to the market in time to get out of those positions to rebuy later. I have to remind myself that I'm not able to do intraday trading, and so I need to pick my positions with that in mind. If I were actively day trading I'm pretty sure I would have made a killing this past week - o well, all I can do is improve and cope with my circumstances. I also bought into alt coins which lost 20-40% this week, but I'm not worried. As long as I don't sell the alts and BTC into USD, I'll still profit as long as I'm patient for prices to return. I can say this confidently because I bought everything under bases and not at peak prices. But it's a shame I can't make the 500%+ returns that'll be playable this upcoming week. \n\nSo we're left asking ourselves two questions : why did the price drop, and what will happen next. \n\n<h1>Why did the price drop?</h1>\n\nI believe there's many mini questions to answer before tackling this specific question.\n\n<h5>1. How did BTC get to $5,000?</h5>\nWell, obviously the market bought and sold BTC until it reached $5k. What I mean to ask is \"what was the behavior of the market as BTC climbed to $5k?\"  \nAug 5th - 14th: breakout, increasing 43% from $3000 to $4300 with no resistance.\nAug 15th - 28th: resistance  at $4300 with support at $4k\nAug 29 - Sept 1st: breakout, increasing 15% from $4,300 to $5,000\nSept 2 - now: crash to revisit support at $3k, which was previously resistance from 6/11-8/05\n\n![Screenshot 2017-09-15 23.49.00.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmaY65vafEAbyMG2tcPigRnqfk9aW6QadMDWu7UvALJzPK/Screenshot%202017-09-15%2023.49.00.png)\n\n<h5>2. How could this have been foreseen?</h5>\nBesides seeing the movement from  all-time-high to all-time-high, a more important indicator is volume. From the first graph we can see that BTC easily shot up from ATH, but what we don't see in that photo is who is participating in that market. \n\n**\"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.\"**\nThis isn't the first time BTC has crashed, nor will it be the last. What can we learn from BTC's last correction: May 24 ($3,00) to July 15th ($1,800 - which was also a resistance in May ;) ? (On a 12 hour timescale on Bittrex)\nWithout going into details, the volume going into the $2.8k resistance on May 24th was about 6k, versus the 28k volume it took to finally break out of the $2,800 resistance on July 28th. \n\nNow in August, we can see that volume from $3,300 to $5,000 was around 3k-7k, rarely did volume surpass 10k. Compare that to the 35k volume seen on September 15th, supporting from $2900 to $3800. This tell us the market is really behind a $3,000 base - don't expect to see BTC below this level anytime soon. \n\n\n<h5>3. Will this happen again?</h5>\nYes. People will continue to overbuy and oversell. They fail to understand the the market is a team game. Only together can we all argue about a price and then come to consensus on a price. *One man is no man.*\n\nCan you identify the next time this setup is happening (and even better if you see it in alt coins daily!)? And will you take actions when the opportunity presents itself?\n\n<h1>What will happen next?</h1>\nBTC is going to bounce between $4500-$3900 for a while. \n![Screenshot 2017-09-16 00.27.16.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmNaf6sFr9x25bzRFB4UJFuGfXPzZAsxkanQZQSrz44f8Y/Screenshot%202017-09-16%2000.27.16.png)\n\n<h5>What will I do?</h5>\nSell small positions around $4,800 and rebuy all I can under $4,400 (previous resistance turning to support). Watch volume, any bull move with 12k+ volume in 12 hours is a sign of a breakout coming. Bear movements with volume over 12k is a good time to sell and rebuy cheaper, but don't be greedy (like me) and sell/buy with smaller volume unless you're able to quickly react to the market and accept a small 5% loss. \n\np.s. I believe everything I said here can be applied to any crypto and other markets as well. \np.p.s. do this for ETH and get much high returns",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "@bitsky I have his blog linked at the bottom of the post.  Since I refer to his trading ideas often, I'll move the reference up to the top on next blog.",
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      "author": "bitsky",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -153,20 +153,4 @@\n flip\n- @fastfingersluc\n",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "Yeah, he's so lucky to pick the only bear coin in a bull market. Maybe source your trading strat to luc so others can see what it's founded on @oneluckyflip @fastfingersluc",
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      "body": "Yeah he definately puts it into mad simple layman terms - certainly made me believe that I too could grasp trading to the point of investing the energy to just watch and download all the @quickfingersluc tube clips I canas well as a heap of other tube clips and thanks to the base man I'm constanly looking for cracks , bases and lifts or highs cos with just a few clips it is really almost like exciting to feel confident to trade a bit now !  I'm almost confused wether I'm talking about something else but no it's trading cryptocurrency which is volatile enough for me to be  feeling like I could possibly do ok and that's being a trader on a money marketplace - who would have thought, lucky I found the guy too - boy am I glad cos he explains it all !",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "Congratulations @bitsky! You have completed some achievement on Steemit and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x80/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/voted.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@bitsky) Award for the number of upvotes received\n\nClick on any badge to view your own Board of Honor on SteemitBoard.\nFor more information about SteemitBoard, click [here](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)\n\nIf you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word `STOP`\n\n> By upvoting this notification, you can help all Steemit users. Learn how [here](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/http-i-cubeupload-com-7ciqeo-png)!",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "tomorrow's the  10th, I'll give you a +3 day buffer, looking for rebound up until the 13th.\nmeanwhile, I'm looking for the rebound after the 19th still... let's say until the 22nd =P\nif both of our crystal balls are broken then we should return for a new crystal ball",
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      "body": "@@ -2574,16 +2574,21 @@\n $80. (I \n+have \n minimum \n@@ -2635,83 +2635,8 @@\n ding\n-, but I'm use that's the circumstance I'd be interested in checking it out.\n )%0A!%5B\n",
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      "body": "@@ -3074,8 +3074,87 @@\n .42.png)\n+%0A%0AP.S. Ideally I trade based on base cracks, but a timing identifier is volume.\n",
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      "title": "Review of a Wild Week",
      "body": "Last week's recap: \nBTC @ ATH $5k\nETH @ ATH: $400\n\nI predicted both coins would simultaneous reach their ATH and psychological walls, followed by a 20% pullback from ATH. So far this week BTC fell to about$4.2k, bounced to $4.7k and is currently retesting $4k, which is a total 20% loss from ATH. ETH fell from $400 to $300 and is sitting there waiting for BTC to make up its mind - a 25% loss. My prediction is right on the money. \n\nThere's a lot of noise in the market, with rumors and fake news to swing prices. I believe whales (especially governments) place their bets and move the line with rumors, fake news, and FUD announcements. But none of that matters as I just draw my bases and wait to buy when they've been cracked. The question to ask isn't **IF** the coin will spike up or down, but **WHEN** it does *what will I do*. There's no need to time the market, I just set my buys and sells based on where I see the market going. \n\nI bought in this week with an average cost of $4275. I was considering selling around $4,500 and rebuying in lower, but honestly, it doesn't matter if I buy these two at ATH $5k/$400, or $3k/$200. Let me explain why my entry doesn't matter.\n\nFirst off, this is only true because I have a small bankroll. Small is relative, but what's important is **MANAGEABLE** bankroll; any BTC/ETH I buy I plan to actively trade in alt coins. However, if I were completely unable to trade alt coins (illiquid market for whales) then the entry point to BTC/ETH **does** matter. What actually matters is the entry and exit points into alt coins - relative to BTC/ETH and not USD. I don't care to expand on this, but it's what I believe to be true. \n\nI still have about 20% of my bankroll in cash waiting to enter closer to my $3k/$200 targets. But I just argued that it doesn't matter where I buy in... so why am I waiting? Purely because I haven't analyzed which alt coins I want to enter and at what price. Hopefully in the next week there'll be discounts in the market (like there was last week, but I wasn't able to buy in yet) for me to take advantage of. My goal is to profit 10% this next week out of my entire bankroll - including the 20% that's just sitting on the sidelines - a 10% on the full stack would mean 12.5% on my current BTC.\n\nPrediction for the upcoming weeks: BTC/ETH will sit near $4k/$300 and then **SUDDENLY** drop to $2500/$200 (total drop will take less than 2 weeks). Do not buy as it's falling, catch it at the bottom, which is previous support levels mentioned beforehand. \n\nPersonal goals: Identify and trade into solid coins which have not fluctuated much during past BTC drops. To me, this means these coins have real believers who HODL and aren't easily manipulated by traders. If I'm unable to buy into alts then I'll back into fiat to rebuy cheaper, but that's a last resort strategy. \n\nWhile talking to some friends about where to enter coins, this is how I analyze:\n ![Screenshot 2017-09-09 10.56.42.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmcQbAnhKdhLP7gvY6AfijNteAgy84xFktHiA46kDAqMAA/Screenshot%202017-09-09%2010.56.42.png)",
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      "body": "I know this guy who makes pretty good videos and has like a 99%+ win rate. \nHe doesn't analyze the charts too much, in terms of technical analysis.; instead, he just buys below bases. \n\nLuckily you found the guy too ;)",
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