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      "body": "The ideas outlined in this post are backed by the same type of thinking at the basis of the Steemit platform : great insights, wrong assumptions.\n\nThe most problematic assumption I would mention here is the idea that \"money is effectively a share in the means of production. If the economy was a company, money would be its stock.\" Money gives you access to a fraction of what is created through the means of production, but it does not give you ownership over the means of production themselves. And there's a considerable difference. Money does not give you any direct power over how the means of production are used - your *use* of it does influence what is produced but your *ownership* does not entitle you to any right in terms of economic returns (dividends) or voting power (what and how the economy produces). \n\nMoney is just a means to exchange your workforce with someone else's. It is a token of trust, nothing more. The other components of the monetary ecosystem (interest rates, financial derivatives and so on) are just other tokens created on top of it. But ultimately, money is just what allows us to exchange our workforce in a complex environment in which trust needs to be validated by a common denominator.  \n\nSo why is this assumption problematic? Because if money is not a share of the economic apparatus, then there is no reason to expect any dividend on what the economy produces (i.e. the basic income). \n\nYour vision would probably make sense in a world in which the vast majority of the economic apparatus were automated. Companies would be owned by citizens who would thus benefit from the fruits of automation. But we are very far from this: automation occurs mainly in the primary and secondary sectors, which only represent 30% of the economy in countries like the US. [Optimistic studies](http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/where-machines-could-replace-humans-and-where-they-cant-yet) estimate that about 45% of our current economic activities could ultimately be automated, which still leaves us with a significant portion of the economy requiring human activity - without even counting the human input needed to produce, operate and maintain the automated economic sector. All this to say that your vision is not conceptually applicable in the current context or even in the medium run.\n\nSO what *could* be done right now? There are lots of options to investigate, such as the creation of public investment funds specialized in automated technologies. The fruits of automation *need* to be shared throughout the whole society. Otherwise, the next technological revolution will only benefit a few ones, thus perpetuating the viscous cycle in which we already find ourselves.\n\nThanks a lot for sharing your ideas, it's important that we collectively think about these issues. The only suggestion I would make is that you identify more clearly the assumptions on which these ideas rely. The logic underlying your reasoning (A+B=C) is sound but the validity of your assumptions is questionable (are A and B good representations of reality or misconceptions?).\n\nSee you around!",
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      "body": "This post has been linked to from another place on Steem.\n\n\n  - [Advanced Steem Metrics Report for 11th November 2016](https://steemit.com/steemit/@ontofractal/advanced-steem-metrics-report-for-11th-november-2016) by @ontofractal\n\n\n\n\nLearn more about and upvote to support [**linkback bot v0.5**](https://steemit.com/steemit/@ontofractal/steem-linkback-bot-v0-5-the-reddit-awareness-release). Flag this comment if you don't want the bot to continue posting linkbacks for your posts.\n\nBuilt by @ontofractal\n",
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      "author": "eemc2",
      "body": "Bitcoin is generating revenue through transaction fees. I'm not saying this is the best way to do it, transaction fees suck. But Bitcoin and Steemit cannot be compared in this regard because their contributors are not compensated using the same economic model. \n\nWith Bitcoin, contributors are compensated by the users of the platform (through transaction fees) while with Steemit, contributors are *ultimately* compensated by the people who bought Steem money. The point is that the Bitcoin economic model relies on users (users leave, everything stops) while the Steemit economic model relies on people buying Steem money (users stay but these people leave, everything stops).\n\nAs long as you'll have more people wanting to cash out than to cash in, the fact that Steemit is a token system is irrelevant. For now, contributors will want to cash out. So again, the question is how do you create a revenue model that allows Steemit to be sustainable during the period needed for Steem money to become value in and by itself (thus making cashing out irrelevant).",
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      "author": "eemc2",
      "body": "I agree, two numbers of the same sign might well be qualitatively different. However, that's not the case here. The point is that there is a structural flaw in the economic model of the Steemit platform, just the way there is a structural flaw in our conventional credit-based model of money creation.\n\nReducing the rate of inflation is a mere bandage on a deeper wound. The money supply should not be determined ex ante by a predefined rate, it should be determined by demand. An ideal monetary model would be one in which prices are not affected by changes in the monetary base, thus keeping inflation close to zero. How to do that technically is a question that needs to be explored. But that's the direction to follow to develop a sustainable and attractive model.\n\nOn the fact that Steemit needs revenue, I totally agree with you. At least, until Steem money becomes valuable in and by itself. I'd sum things up slightly differently actually: revenue might be the short term problem (1-2 years) while inflation might be one of the long term issues (5-10 years). \n\nI saw that the platform also faces immediate challenges with early adopters wondering whether they should stay or leave, but that should be manageable with a clear action plan and good communication.",
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      "author": "biophil",
      "body": "> all they're doing is reducing the speed at which the car is going to crash.\n\nMaybe, but a car crashing at 100 km/hr kills everybody involved; a car crashing at 9.5 km/hr is barely worth calling the insurance company about. Just because two numbers have the same sign doesn't mean they're not qualitatively different.\n\nBut who knows? Maybe you're right - time will tell. In the long run, the inflation rate isn't what will make or break Steem; the real problem is that Steem needs revenue.",
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      "body": "The idea of a sequel is both very exciting and worrying... Jerome Bixby is not around anymore so we'll just have to hope that the new authors share some of his talent. The way they initially communicated the idea of a sequel to the public is pretty cool, they just launched [a kickstarter campaign](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CevTJ2WgSE) to raise the first funding round. And as you can imagine, they didn't have any trouble raising the funds... :)",
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      "body": "Great, thanks a lot for the link, I wasn't aware of these changes indeed. However, none of the modifications they mention would solve the issues outlined here. It shows that they are well aware of the problems inflation will cause in the long term but all they're doing is reducing the speed at which the car is going to crash. The inherent structure of the system remains flawed. \n\nMy impression is that the economics of Steemit need to be rethought from scratch. There are lots of ideas to keep and the overall vision is pointing to the right direction, but the fundamentals of the economic model need some serious and radical rethinking if they want the system is be sustainable.",
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      "author": "biophil",
      "body": "> First problematic assumption: increases in the money supply have little effect on inflation\n\nThe problems with this have already become apparent; as a result, they are doing away with 100% inflation: https://steemit.com/steem/@steemitblog/proposed-changes-to-steem-economy\n\nDon't expect an update to the whitepaper. These devs are not big on documentation ;)",
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      "title": "Steemit is NOT a Ponzi scheme. But is it sustainable?"
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      "author": "eemc2",
      "body": "I discovered Steemit a few days ago. Like most newbies, my first reaction was \"boy, this looks like a beautiful 3.0 Ponzi scheme\". I started looking around to see if anyone had analyzed the issue in more details. Here's [the best analysis](http://thestringpuller.com/2016/07/a-steeming-bubble/) I found so far. \n\nAnd here's my own input to the discussion, divided into three questions.\n\n**1/ Is Steemit a Ponzi scheme?**\n\nTechnically, the answer is no. @gavett provides [a fair analysis](https://steemit.com/steem/@gavvet/is-steemit-a-ponzi-scheme) of the question and concludes that Steemit is **not** a classic Ponzi scheme. \n\nhttps://s3.amazonaws.com/gs-geo-images/6d084ad4-d937-452e-ae65-6a240e7784e5.jpg\n\nIn a classic Ponzi scheme, the value of an investment derives from the continuous inflow of new investments. With Steemit, the value of an investment in Steem Power derives from the potential value of the ecosystem in the long run. This potential value remains highly uncertain because we can only speculate over the possible applications of the platform in the future, but it is not *ultimately* conditioned by the existence of future investments. In the first case, the average return on an investment equals the investment itself, which does correspond to a Ponzi scheme if that value is unequally distributed. In the second case, the potential value is unknown, which corresponds to the idea we should have of a regular investment.  \n\n**2/ Is Steemit's funding model sustainable?**\n\nNow that we have clarified the semantics, let's get to the core of the problem. Steemit is a social network, it exists because people interact on it. On the basis of this network, Steemit has the ambition of creating a cryptocurrency that will be used by the people composing the network. So Steemit could exist in the absence of the cryptocurrency but the crypto wouldn't exist in the absence of members providing the trust component needed to back the currency [*obvious but bear with me*].\n\nSteemit will grow as long as people find value in the ecosystem. Now, where does this value come from? It comes from the comparative advantage of Steemit over other options (Reddit, etc.). What is that comparative advantage for now? It resides in the possibility for authors and curators to get a financial reward for their work. And where does this financial reward come from? From people having invested bitcoins into the ecosystem. In the absence of these external investments, the creation and distribution of Steem money would have no value. \n\nhttps://quantumfrontiers.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/thermo-laws.jpg\n\nSo the growth of the network depends on its capacity to reward existing and new users. This capacity remains effective as long as the inflow of bitcoins (investments) remains larger than the outflow (rewards). The question therefore is to know whether this balance can remain positive during the period required for the ecosystem to create external value needed to provide economic returns to investors. In the absence of external value creation, past investors will leave the boat, new investors will stop showing up and the balance between inflows and outflows will become negative (leading to the collapse of the system).\n\n**3/ Which assumptions underlying Steemit's vision might be problematic?**\n\nAnyone reading the white paper will agree that some considerable brain power has been dedicated to design the platform. I'm sure @dantheman & al. have thought about these issues with rigor and intelligence. So there are two options: (i) I'm missing something ; or (ii) the founders made implicit or explicit assumptions that might not be warranted. While I sincerely do not exclude the first option (please show me the light), it seems sensible to explore the second option as well. There are two assumptions that could prove to be problematic in the long term. \n\n**_First problematic assumption: increases in the money supply have little effect on inflation_**\n\nSeveral key components of Steemit's DNA rely on the assumption that an increase in the monetary base of the Steemit ecosystem will have little effect on the external value of Steem money :\n\n>At first glance, 100% annual increase in the STEEM supply may appear to be hyper-inflationary and unsustainable. Those who follow the Quantity Theory of Money may even conclude that the value of STEEM must fall by approximately 5.6% per month. We know from countless real-world examples that the quantity of money does not have a direct and immediate impact on its value, though it certainly plays a role. (White paper, p. 36)\n\nThe authors mention the significant increase in the US monetary base to illustrate their point:\n\n>From August 2008 through January 2009 the U.S. money supply grew from $871B to $1,737B, a rate of over 100% per year and then continued to grow at about 20% per year for the next 6 years. All told the money supply in the U.S. has grown by 4.59x over less than 7 years. During that same time, the value of the dollar relative to goods and services has fallen less than 10% according to the government's price index . This real-world example demonstrates that supply is only one component of price. (White paper, p. 37)\n\nSo what is wrong with this analysis? First, the increase in the US money supply was driven by the FED increasing bank reserves, to such extent that they created over 2 trillion dollars of excess reserves (i.e. reserves not needed by banks). So while the figures do show a considerable increase in the money supply, that money did not actually reach the markets because banks did not use the reserves to back additional lending in the economy. \n\nSecond, even if they had lent that money, looking at the government's price index wouldn't be enough to make that point. We would need to look at where the money went and what happened to the prices within these specific markets (e.g. if you inject excess money in the housing market or in financial markets, assets in these markets rise but other prices might remain perfectly stable).\n\nFinally, the US dollar is an international reserve currency, which means that it the effects of an increase in money creation will have a different effect than in a closed economy. Steemit is a closed economy, Steem money can only be used within that ecosystem. If the money supply increases, that money will be used and affect prices in that ecosystem, not another.\n\nThe whole reward system and the incentive mechanisms for long-term involvement are all based on the assumption that the value of Steem money will not be affected too significantly by a massive increase in the money supply. This assumption seems unwarranted. As soon as the first signs of prolonged depreciation of Steem money become apparent, it should be expected that an increasing number of people will cash out, thus driving the value of Steem money even lower, initiating the infernal spiral.\n\n**_Second problematic assumption: Market capitalization will keep on increasing until Steem money becomes useful by itself_**\n\nAs mentioned earlier, Steemit could generate external value allowing the system to provide economic returns to investors (how this could be achieved remains to be determined but it seems possible). Such returns are necessary to maintain a positive balance between bitcoin inflows and outflows, which in turn is necessary to retain existing users and attract new ones. For this to happen, the 10% market capitalization allocated to contributors (i.e. authors, curators and miners) needs to be large enough to compensate every single person using the platform for monetary returns. \n\nWhile \"innovators\" and \"early adopters\" are here for the vision (for the most part hopefully), it would probably be wishful thinking to expect that the network will grow on the basis of that population alone. Self-interest is the only sustainable driver (it's sad but let's be pragmatic here) and, again, monetary incentives are the primary comparative advantage Steemit has over other platforms, for now. If the financial basis allowing the distribution of monetary incentives does not increase proportionally with the amount of users, the system will collapse.\n\nThe founders assume that using 10% of the market capitalization per year is realistic because Bitcoin itself used a higher rate for a prolonged period of time:\n\n>The total rate of expenditures used to reward contributors is about 10% of the market capitalization per year, a rate well below what Bitcoin sustained for the first 7 years after it launched. (Steem white paper, p. 36)\n\nThe key difference here is that the rewards Bitcoin distributes are based on transaction fees (which suck, agreed), fees that people are willing to pay in exchange for a service provided by the system. Value is therefore derived from the system itself. With Steemit, the value of rewards ultimately derives from the amount of bitcoins injected in the system. As long as the market capitalization keeps increasing, everything is fine. But the day the market cap drops for a prolonged period of time, the infernal fall downhill begins. Given the inflation problem identified above, this situation is very likely to emerge eventually.\n\nThere are some great insights underlying the vision behind Steemit. But these issues need to be further investigated in order to allow the ecosystem to survive long enough to make Steem money useful by itself, thus totally eliminating the risks of crowding out effects (which are slowed down by the two year Powering down process but not eliminated). We'll explore possible solutions for these different problems in a future post. For now, I'd be very interested to have feedback or references from people having explored these questions.\n\nThanks a lot guys!",
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      "author": "thylbom",
      "body": "@andrarchy has some ideas and did some interesting videos. The system is still being tweaked, so I would call it still experimental. There are 3 currencies in the system roughly analogous to debt (liquid STEEM), equity (STEEM POWER) and a derivative product with a loose peg to USD. To me, the most interesting observation so far is that even if the theory is sound, the system needs to explicitly account for the psychological implications of inflation rate. I believe that's what the hard fork revisions are addressing.",
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      "author": "shieha",
      "body": "@@ -24,16 +24,66 @@\n ie again\n+ thinking about writing a post about it on Steemit\n , probab\n",
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      "author": "shieha",
      "body": "Excellent movies, I've watched almost all of these before, followed you now :)",
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      "author": "shieha",
      "body": "I just watched this movie again, probably for the 5th or 6th time, and just later found out that there will be a sequel coming out in 2017!!",
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      "author": "eemc2",
      "body": "You're right, it appears that inflation is the only way out central banks have. That's where alternative currencies could play a major role and where the different components of the story would start coming together. \n\nOn one side, we are going to see progressive drops in the value of major currencies. On the other side, we are going to see an increasing number of alternative currencies gaining both in value and reliability. So the use of non-traditional monetary interventions, by decreasing the value of standard currencies, could lead to increased reliance on alternative currencies and ultimately to the obsolescence of credit-based currencies.\n\nThat would be a smooth and natural transition towards what economists from different streams of thought have been calling for since the early  1900s, from Irving Fisher (separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system) to Friedrich Hayek (denationalized and competing currencies). [A working paper](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12202.pdf) published by the IMF a few years ago shows that some of these ideas are receiving interest in institutional arenas, which is an encouraging start. \n\nI am still looking for a rigorous analysis of the Steemit monetary system and its sustainability. Do you know of any thread or anyone who has delved into the details and would be able to shed some light on the apparent Ponzi nature of the system? Thanks a lot!",
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      "author": "thylbom",
      "body": "@@ -758,17 +758,17 @@\n  only wa\n-s\n+y\n  out for\n",
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      "author": "thylbom",
      "body": "@@ -180,20 +180,16 @@\n  caused \n-the \n its bala\n",
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      "author": "thylbom",
      "body": "If only the banking and monetary system would limit itself to the normal practices of fractional reserve lending... As it is, what the Fed refers to as non-traditional \"tools\" has caused the its balance sheet to balloon from $800B to $4T since 2008. At present most of this currency is in hibernation as excess reserves in zombie banks that are being kept on life support with ZIRP and NIRP (zero/negative interest rate policies). It has also inflated asset bubbles in the markets for bonds and stocks. The currency inflation hasn't yet showed up in rising prices for consumer goods and commodities, but this could end badly. As you correctly point out, the only way to burn the currency is to retire the debt, but doing so is deflationary and kills growth. The only was out for central banks is inflation, which allows current debts to be extinguished with worthless currency.",
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      "body": "@@ -3301,8 +3301,53 @@\n native).\n+%0A%0Ahttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVvR65CER7k\n",
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      "author": "danigirl",
      "body": "I very much appreciate your support! Opening up is cathartic for me, and I so hope it will benefit others as well.",
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      "author": "eemc2",
      "body": "True, you're right to stress that central banks *can* create money through QE. However, this is not the usual way money is created in most countries.  I don't have the exact figures but the vast majority of the money existing as bank deposits (in the UK, bank deposits represent 97% of the money in circulation) is created by commercial banks when providing loans. \n\nIn brief, the monetary base increases (money is created) when loans are made and decreases (money is destroyed) when these loans are paid back. For more details, you can have a look at [this paper](http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q102.pdf) on the process of money creation - published by the Bank of England.",
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