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      "author": "rouor",
      "body": "清明节，第一次回陕西省宁陕县去祭奠去世很早的爷爷奶奶。每个家庭都有各自的故事，故事里藏着历史，血缘的传递，很多很值得品味的事情。\n\n我从小在姥姥家长大，和爷爷这边不亲，也从来没有回来老家扫墓。记得上次来扫墓，姑姑在爷爷墓前说\n> 这一辈子就这么普普通通的过去了。也没有赚到什么钱，也没有做过什么了不起的事情。\n\n当时觉得很震撼，如果我的后辈在我的坟墓前这样总结我，我会觉得非常失败。有些人可以过一种普通，温温淡淡的人生，但我不想。不过，爷爷是供销社的、奶奶是镇上国营宾馆的，俩人在县城已经算是有了不错的工作和稳定的收入来源。\n\n我一直像逃避瘟疫一样逃避平庸。努力上进——从小城市到大城市读大学，出国读研究生，回国创业。有段时间心高气傲，觉得自己无所不能。渐渐的，现实的重力也是扑面而来，我知道自己不是无所不能，而是能力有限；知道自己不能控制很多事情的发生，知道自己没有扭转乾坤的能力；知道我自己有边界；渐渐的知道，在平庸之河里逆流而上，如果不拼尽全力，我也就被一个个浪花打回平庸。也许，即使我不甘心，即使我不想接受，我也就这样平凡一生或者平庸一生。\n\n站在坟墓前真的让人想到很多，比如两个人从出生后就过着一个大部分人都过的剧本，读书（父母给指定专业和学校），毕业，去工作（国企，政府等等），到了时间该结婚结婚（俩人搭伙过日子），养孩子，孩子有了孩子，再帮着带孙子，然后老去，去世。到具体某件事某个决定等等的反应，完全是按照自己的感觉，自己的直觉，对人生没有觉知，真的是很恐怖。一个人就是被牵线的木偶，被社会环境和文化牵线，被自己的基因及性格牵线，被自己物理的身体牵线。然后就走过了平庸的一生。可是这3万多天是多么难得、宝贵、瑰丽的呀，藏传佛教说七道轮回，才能有一世为人。\n\n爷爷奶奶在坟墓里，这也是块风水宝地，爸爸和姑姑给爷爷奶奶修了一个很体面的坟墓，他们选择了土葬。因为他们之前没有生育能力，我爸小时候被过继过去，爷爷奶奶辛辛苦苦的把我爸拉扯大，我爸工作后来到我妈的城市结婚生子有了我，不过我小时候是在姥姥家长大，爷爷奶奶只见过2面，后面他们就相继去世了。对我来说，爷爷奶奶是一种既陌生又熟悉的存在，没有血缘的关系，但是也的确是我的爷爷奶奶。当别人问到我故乡的时候我也很错乱。按理说籍贯是陕西，但是从小的生活环境和陕西没有一点感情。因为生活习惯、周围亲戚都是山东那边，说是山东，又的确是我妈妈的籍贯。——我说的都是自己真切的感受。\n\n如果一个人四海为家，那么他又会把自己埋葬在哪里呢？出生的地方，还是儿女在的地方？还是随风飘散？这也都是很沉重的话题。死后，又想别人如何评价你呢？这个问题就更沉甸甸了。 孔子说：“未知生，焉知死。” 我真的觉得——**未知死，焉知生。** 清明，真的是一个很清明的节日。让人反思，让人反省，让人清醒，让人明白。\n\n带着终极的追问，去过好这一生，也许会不那么容易后悔。如果能站在终点，坦然面对自己的平庸，那么也就不用这么焦虑。如果不能，那么就要比平庸的影子跑的更快，不要让它追上。",
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      "body": "公司需要战略思维，人生也需要战略思维。小到考试准备，大到人生选择都需要战略思维。\n\n吴军老师最近在专栏给高考学生提供了一种考试策略，很启发我。\n他说首先要明确的目标：能考几分，打算考几分。其次要有一个实现目标可以量化考量的方法，以及实现目标的具体做法。比如 能够考120分的人，最后15分的难题都不要看，保证把能做的题作对。把课程内容分为：\n1. 不能丢分的。——基础题一定不丢分\n2. 要努力掌握的。——中高难度争取不丢分\n3. 根本不用看的。——最难选择放弃最难的题\n\n想到之前准备注册规划师考试时，朋友因为时间紧采用今年只复习科目1和2，明年复习科目3和4，但保证每年的2科必须过。也让我很惊异，因为我从来没有想过还可以用这种策略去复习，我自己是在工作时间非常紧张的情况下，眉毛胡子一把抓，然后悲剧了。现在想来，战略思维是一种很值得借鉴的思维方式。\n\n> 战略思维——在资源有限的情况下，想办法最大的去发挥资源的价值，做出最明智的选择（选择也就是放弃——有所为，有所不为），也意味着做最明智的放弃；需要有创造性思维和智慧。\n\n最近入手了amazon echo dots，体验着便捷的美国生活方式和服务，惊叹于amazon技术的先进, 也专门去找了一些相关资料。在智能音响里，Amazon不但先发制人，同时我的体验也是智能音响里综合实力及性价比最出众的一款，占有绝佳的优势地位。苹果和Google也都在迎头赶上，苹果在2018年（比amazon晚三年）上个月才推出智能音响HomePod. 如果我是苹果，在比对手晚三年，还有这么大差距的情况下，怎么打赢这场仗呢？ \n\n苹果的策略是：Homepod是家庭音响中最好的，而且还智能+出众设计（有调性）。对比亚马逊：便宜+智能+先发优势。苹果的策略调整了游戏规则，给消费者另一维度的选择。想想看，一般人使用智能音响60%的功能都是播放音乐，那么把音乐播放这个点做到极致就是竞争力。同时亚马逊针对大众人群，主打性价比；而苹果则针对高净值用户，主打品质。它们选择了另一个竞争维度。\n\n> 战略的相反面也是战略。有所为，有所不为。\n\n要有所不为才能有所为——这才叫做战略吧。之前参加一个讨论会，会上有一个问题很尖锐：“你做的这个决定需要放弃什么？你的代价是什么？” 从某种意义上来说，放弃是一种智慧。主动选择某种放弃是一种更大的智慧。我们都知道的田忌赛马，也是根据比赛规则的漏洞，先故意失了了第一局比赛，才赢得了后两场的胜利。\n\n最后给大家讲一个巴菲特的故事：\n> 有一次，巴菲特和Flint在探讨他的职业生涯目标时，巴菲特让他去做这么一件事：首先，巴菲特让 Flint 写下他职业生涯最重要的 25 个目标来。于是，Flint 花了一些时间，把这些目标写了下来。然后，巴菲特让他审视一下这个清单，然后圈出他认为最重要的 5 个。Flint 也照做了。Flint 现在有了两个清单。一个是他认为自己职业生涯最重要的 5 个目标，另一个是另外 20 个他也觉得比较重要的事。巴菲特问 Flint：你现在知道该怎么做了么？Flint 答：知道了。我现在会马上开始着手于实现这 5 个目标。至于另外 20 个，并没有那么紧急，所以可以放在闲暇的时间去做，然后慢慢把它们实现。巴菲特听完后说到：不 Mike，你搞错了。那些你并没有圈出来的目标，不是你应该在闲暇时间慢慢完成的事，而是你应该尽全力避免去做的事——**你应该像躲避瘟疫一样躲避它们，不去花任何的时间和注意力在它们上面。**\n\n战略是做选择，选择放弃什么，追求什么。",
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      "body": "成为亿万富翁财富来源最大的是社交圈，人际关系带来的商机。\n房地产占总资产的比重会越来越小。",
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      "body": "查理.芒格不停强调跨学科思维的重要性：\n> 你们应该掌握各个学科的主要模型，并将它们通通派上用场。这个世界并不是按照跨学科的方法组织起来的。在手里拿铁锤的人看来，这个世界就像一颗钉子；这样单一模式看世界会让人很愚蠢。有一种研究方法很好，那就是“拿来主义”，不论看中其他学科什么知识和思维方法，尽管拿过来用，以避免在单一学科中固步自封。\n\n读完一部分穷查理宝典后，我又读了精缩的魔鬼数学和魔鬼经济学，试着从数学和经济学学科中学习到新的思维方式和思考模型。\n\n#### Mathematical Thinking\n乔治.施蒂格勒曾说过：“如果你从来没有误过飞机，说明你在机场浪费的时间太多了。”\n这句话很震撼到我，我从来认为准时赶飞机火车是理所当然；没想过对有些人来说等飞机所浪费的时间成本已经远远大于误机的损失。\n\n这件事可以转化为一个数学模型，把误机的概率和所造成的损失相乘对比浪费的时间和所造成的损失；看哪个更大，从而做出最理性的判断。\n- 同样的，如果政府没有浪费行为，说明它在反浪费上花了太多的时间。\n- 如果网购买东西每次都买到最便宜的，说明我们在买东西上花了太多的时间和精力。\n- 如果时时刻刻都想保持最高效率，说明某些人在提升效率花了太多时间。\n\n为什么要学数学呢？\n从上面的例子可以看出，数学用最简明的手法把复杂的事情简化为数学公式，通过逻辑推理得到最简明优雅的答案。反之亦然，数学公式也蕴含了丰富的内容，需要把它们解读出来，比如等边三角形可以有非常丰富的解读，解题的过程也是阅读理解，读懂隐喻、暗指等条件。数学也是最简便快捷锻炼逻辑思维能力的方式。\n\n同时把复杂的生活场景简化成数学模型，能很清晰简洁的解决问题。\n\n#### 经济学的思维方式\n经济学家看待一件事的复杂度和普通人不一样。\n\n普通人凭着直觉和自己的喜好简单的看世界，比如认为扶贫就是给穷人送钱；现在开电动车一定最环保；自己走路肯定比开车更环保；血库缺血，那就有偿献血呗。；可惜，以上全错。\n\n我们现在在一个非常复杂的协作网络之中，普通人能感受到的只是身边人的协作，世界真实的协作关系比身边人更复杂，更广泛，但这部分协作关系很难看得到。而经济学家会研究普通人视野和感受范围之外的这种协作关系。不同层次的人的思考行为方式会很不一样（同一件事，你很难了解其他人是如何解读）。\n\n经济学家思考问题是从事实出发，而不会理会道德判断、政治正确、从众压力和个人情感等等其他。经济学的一个思维方式就是，以事实为依据，实事求是，即使这种真实和你的愿望相差甚远。就像一个小孩子纯真的发问，最后能得到最终的事实。\n\n经济学的一些基本概念，也提供了思考的框架，比如：稀缺，绝对优势，博弈论等等，都非常值得仔细研究。\n\n之前在谈判时，运用过博弈论的一些理论。发现这个世界表面是混沌无序复杂，人心也是；但是越去了解背后的原理、人性人心，越容易看的清澈明白。\n\n---我是社区新人，欢迎关注和鼓励，谢谢",
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      "body": "目前有两种方式，一种是加入 @justyy 的微信群名单，另一种是直接代理任意SP给公众号 @cnbuddy 。",
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      "body": "我从2017年8月开始投入1万进入A股和1万美元进入美股。\n昨天前天第一次经历大股灾，之前的盈利全都赔进去了。\n就当我的教训和体验吧。\n\n伤心，\n总结一下我的失败。",
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      "body": "#### 一、长寿\n道琼期指数100年前成立当时20个成分股只有通用电气还在。股指基金不断的用新股票替代老股票。而普通的单一股票就没有办法做到这点，而且普通的股票基金最仰仗牛叉的基金经理，如果基金经理换人和退休，这个基金很难长久存在或者长久保持水准。买指数基金就是买国运，只要相信国家会继续发展，就可以投资指数基金，就能分享国家的增长的分红。就和买房就是买城市发展的股票一样道理。\n\n#### 二、长期上涨\n上证综指从91年的100点起步，到现在的3000多点，再加上分红的收益，上证综指的年化收益率也达到了15%。指数基金长期上涨的解释有很多，一个通用的解释是：企业生产盈利后一般会再投资，来年会有更多的利益，推动指数不断上涨。\n\n#### 三、成本低\n股指基金的管理费很低在0.69%。长期投资下来，在管理费率上有优势。长期来看能省下很多费用。\n\n#### 四、规避投资中的各种风险\n黑天鹅：比如三聚氰胺、911等等。对于指数基金不会影响太大。\n本金永久损失风险：只投入某家公司就会出现这种风险，比如贾老板的乐视，最近7、8个跌停板看的让心心痛。\n指数基金选择的股票即使有下跌也不会跌没，会选取规范的股票\n制度风险：有很多不完善的制度，容易让出现内幕交易，而指数基金是有一套既定的规则进行投资，每个人都可以查看和监督。\n\n我开始研究股指基金的原因是，从2017年8月开始投入中国股市到今天，我核算了一下半年的收益，发现我在A股的收益才4.5%还不如我买的一些基金收益。期间我每天都会花0.5-1h看股票，浪费了很多的精力，却没有好的效果。所以想选取省事的基金定投法。在这里我记录下自己学习的笔记，希望能分享给更多的人一起成长。如果您觉得有收获，可以关注我：）",
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      "body": "投资股票的基金，也是风险最高的一种基金。在高点投资不仅很难赚钱，反而很容易赔钱。不过长期看 股票基金却是债券基金和货币基金中收益率最高的。\n\n现在国内的股票型基金有2000多种。在过去十几年内，国内所有的股票基金年化收益率平均能达到14.1%。比货币基金和债券基金都要高很多。\n\n##### 那么问题就来了，该买什么样的股票基金呢？ \n在股票基金中，有一种是巴菲特各种场合强烈推荐的——指数型股票基金。在理财入门读物小狗钱钱里，作者也非常推荐指数型股票基金给投资小白。\n\n##### 什么是指数型股票基金呢？\n指数就好比平均成绩，平均身高。反映市场股票的平均水平，主要是由证券交易所和公司开发的指数，比如深圳债券交易所开发的深圳指数、上海证券交易所开发的上证指数、还有中证公司开发的中证指数。\n\n美国主要有纳斯达克（证券指数）、标普500（公司开发指数）、道琼斯指数（公司开发指数）。\n\n指数基金就是按照一定规则选出一系列股票 ，如果一个基金公司按照某种指数的成分标准买入同样比例的股票，这时指数基金就可以复制股票指数的走势。\n\n基金公司有很多，我们也需要去挑选公司时间长，实力雄厚的基金公司的产品。",
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      "body": "债券基金和利率是相反的。利率走高，债券基金下跌。\n国内在十年间债券基金的平均收益率是6.5%。越是长期的债券基金受利率影响越大。长期的债券基金受利率波动影响更大。\n\n投资债券基金时只需要注意两点：\n\n1. 利率处于低位选短期的债券基金。\n2. 利率处于高位选长期的债券基金。\n\n利率的高低位可以通过十年期国债利率判断，一般十年期国债利率<3%是属于低位，>3.5%是处于高位。\n当债券基金出现浮亏时，及时加仓会容易盈利不亏损",
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      "body": "我喜欢轻轻的抚摸过叶子，\n就如同和她们打招呼\n幻想着他们因为这个招呼而心情愉快\n\n轻轻的抚摸过，我也如沐慰藉\n绿色的生命\n她们是那样缓慢悠扬的呼吸\n不经意间叶已成林\n\n轻轻的抚摸过\n我感受到自然的生命，这个世界不能以人为本\n这个世界也是植物的世界\n鲜花不会因为它艳丽的身姿被人剪断做桌上装饰而高兴\n---\n\n我是18年加入steem的新人，希望能得到你的关注和支持，@rouor",
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      "body": "> 西蒙·斯涅克(Simon Sinek)提出了“黄金圈法则”，人人都知道自己是“做什么”的；有些人知道自己是“怎么做”的；但只有极少数人知道自己“为什么”要这样做；唯有那些明白“为什么”的人，才是真正的领导者。黄金圈法则是一种自内而外，一种从实到虚，从清晰到模糊。\n![image.png](http://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/2414107-bdb17837b6972985.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240)\n\n\n***黄金圈法则是与人对话的黄金法则***\n\n今天遇到了一件事很充分的说明了这个原理。我们长方的办公区有左右两个侧门，自由出入不需要密码，中间也有一个正门，但是需要输只有管理人员知道的密码，我刚好坐在正门附近。今天有个陌生女孩忽然跑来问我，给我说下这个正门的密码吧，我说：我也不知道，只有管理人员知道。（what）但转念一想，她为什么要问密码？因为她要出门（why）这个才是真正的核心问题。她只是不知道中间的正门常年不开，只有边上的侧门可自由进出。因此，我又给她说：“你是想出门吧，左右又两个侧门，都可以出去。”（how）。 虽然是件小事，但是也是纲举目张吧。\n\nwhy 是三层圈里最小也是最核心的，也是少即是多，最能让我们看到事物本质的吧。\n\n***黄金圈法则也是演讲的黄金法则。***\n\n因为很少有人会思考很多现象的why，所以提出现象的why会很吸引听众，也是更深入探究事物的原因和本质，带听众发现对事对人最有价值的点。\n\n比如：傅园慧萌妹子的洪荒之力火了，新闻里铺天盖地的都是她的表情包、她的萌、她的洪荒之力。但是如果有一个演讲开头说：“妹子为什么会有这样萌的表情和生动的语言呢？为什么是她呢，而不是之前任何一个中国运动员？为什么在2016年的奥运会会瞬时出现这样一个网红呢？”（why）我估计听众会更愿意往下听。\n\n然后就是解释how了: 我发现萌妹子是由于balabala的原因做出这样的行为、表情、话语。她的成长环境和时代balabala让她语言有这样的风格和有传播价值，从而让人印象深刻（how）。\n\n***黄金圈法则也是说服别人的黄金法则。***\n\n跑市场时，最重要的就是说服客户。以前我会说产品及服务的特征、优势、利益，但是这些很难激发客户的购买行为。人家乔布斯却是使用黄金圈法则。记录一下TED里的这个例子：我们做的每一件事都是相信突破和创新，我们坚信因该用不同的方式思考，我们挑战现状的方法，是把我们的电脑设计的美丽、易于使用和界面友好。我们只是在这个过程中恰好做出了最好的电脑。\n> people do not buy what you do, they buy why you do it. what you do prove what you believe. 目标不是要和所有需要你产品的人做生意，而是认同你们公司理念的人做生意。不要招聘一个找工作的人，而是要招一个有共同信念的人。\n\n实践:\n我在写招聘广告的时候采用了新的黄金圈法则。不是写我们需要什么样的人，而是写清楚了我们公司的价值观，我们为什么和其他人不一样，我们如何做来实现我们的价值观。这则招聘广告收到了奇效，有几位非常认同我们理念的人很热情的给我们投了简历，和别的应聘者不同，我都能感受到她们的热情和找到组织的兴奋。\n\n我们在市场里要说服客户、说服应聘者、说服投资人；熟练运用黄金圈法则----相同的信念就是最好的说服。",
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      "body": "小时候，我的小床底下藏了一些爸妈买的不用而又不舍得认的弃物，有一把小提琴，一双滑冰鞋。躺在床上时想想，还蛮有象征感的——我的床下是上一辈人一段理想生活的遗骸。我自认为是喜欢尝试各种新鲜事物的人，可是对滑冰，我从来没有动过念想，估计是之前去过一次旱冰场，自从穿上旱冰鞋就一直在原地摔跤，待屁股摔肿了只好悻悻而归。那次后我得到了一个结论：我不适合滑行类运动。\n\n周末去参加了一个滑冰活动。我原以为是有教练教的初级活动，没想到拍完集体合影后，就是自由活动。已经穿上了单刀冰鞋，怎么办？那就滑呗。\n\n\n第一回合 自我摸索\n\n一起参加活动的人有30多个，3/4估计都是初学者不会滑，1/4是会滑但是水平一般。我看有人拿了助推器开始滑冰，就学着他们一样找了一个大白盒子助推器，慢慢的往前挪。这时旁边和我一起滑的人让我保持外八字——这时我从茫然懵懂中得到了第一个指导。这样滑了四五圈，我渐渐可以借助大白盒子助推器慢慢滑行。\n\n第二回合 小老师指导\n\n看到场上有个6岁左右的小男孩滑得不错，我就虚心向他请教，让他来教教我，当我的小老师，孩子很认真的告诉我他的要领——先学会走 能在冰场上来回走，不摔跤，然后就可以慢慢尝试滑起来。有道理，我果断的离开了助推器，勇敢的走向了摔跤危险系数陡增的未知。我沿着边慢慢走了3圈，惊险无数，不过的确没有摔倒，算是一个小小成就。这个阶段学会了在冰上走，消除了对滑冰的恐惧。\n\n第三回合 模仿\n\n场上来了几位高手，滑的那叫一个行云流水，流畅潇洒，感觉进入了自由之境，大家都驻足观赏，对于观看的人来说，这也是一种美的享受，感受到驾驭了一种新工具后带来的自由。我注意到他们的姿势很优美和谐，用心记住他们的动作感觉和节奏，努力回忆模仿。记得之前学打乒乓球时一直也没有感觉，直到有一个高手在旁边练球，那种流畅的感觉和标准的动作非常启发我，捕捉到他们的打球节奏和动作，让我的动作标准了很多。我开始慢慢的滑，回忆这些高手的节奏和动作，努力模仿，按照自己的笨拙步伐开始——的确慢慢的滑了2圈，期间开始了密集的摔跤。\n\n\n第四回合 不要怕摔跤\n\n因为远离了舒适区，我这个年龄摔跤可比小孩摔跤要疼的多。不过年轻时我曾是校田径队员，那时比赛最重要的收获是——不要怕的心态。发令枪响的那一刻之前是非常害怕的，害怕失败，害怕抢跑，害怕出事故。每一次比赛要克服的都是自己的害怕。比赛的成绩，很大一部分也是自己心理的较量和心态的调整，有了不怕摔的心态，要做的就很简单——努力滑。\n\n第五回合 请教教练\n\n看到那个高手滑的很好，我们就主动请教人家来给我们说一下要点，这个大哥也很热心，给我们说了他滑冰七年的几个心法：\n\n弯腰，弯曲膝盖，让身体重心降低。——保证不滑倒\n跟平时走路不同的是——重心左右交换，重心在左边，右脚靠拢左边；重心在右边时，左脚靠拢右边；\n和开车一样，眼睛是向前看的，而不是向下看。\n穿鞋时要合适脚，鞋带要绑紧。\n\n教练说完，我感觉自己突然不会滑了，按照自己摸索的动作能滑动但都不标准，需要按照要点规范自己的动作。不过有了这几个要点，就能刻意的练习，提升很快。几圈练习下来，我可以在滑冰场自我控制住的滑冰了，从2:00到5:30结束。3个半小时，我终于学会了滑冰，非常有成就感。这时候，场上的人已经很少了，最后就剩了4、5个人。很多人都是开始滑，没学会，觉得没有意思就提前走了。而最后坚持下来滑3个小时以上的我和另一个女孩，我们都学会了滑冰。还有一个大姐，估计40来岁，她也滑到了最后，感觉进步不太大，我觉得一个原因是她一直没有扔掉助滑器，没有放弃自己的百分之百安全感。\n冰场收获\n\n在需要某种技能的环境里，直接学习是最快的。要学游泳，就下水；要学滑冰，就穿上单刀冰鞋上冰场；要学会跳舞，就直接跳；要想去旅游，就买了票。有时候我们想做一件事，给自己太多铺垫，反而做不了了。\n\n学习的技能可以累加。能在对我来说很短的时间内学会滑冰，和我过去的学习有很多关联，能感觉到相互的关联。是因为我从小就喜欢运动，愿意尝试新的运动——有不怕摔的心态——之前学过滑雪（自己练习转弯时，参照过滑雪的经验）——刻意的模仿好的节奏（学乒乓球时，曾模仿高手的练习节奏打球，有很好的效果）——知道教练指导的重要性（滑雪时1个小时的教练课让我很快上手，而且学会了保护自己不受伤的重要知识）——刻意练习的经验（之前刻意练习过，有很好的效果）。现在才知道，学习能力其实是会指数增加的而不是线性增加，很启发我。\n\n尽早抛掉带给你安全感的拐杖。比如下水后一直不敢离开救生圈，就永远学不会游泳；滑冰时离不开助推器也学不会滑冰；离不开父母的孩子，也永远不会长大；也许离不开的依恋也都是能力的诅咒。",
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